IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuhu-car" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36012:1" rel="noopener">Tuhu Car (2007986D HK)</a>, a leading integrated online and offline platform for automotive service in China, is set to open books for its US$300 million IPO.   </li>
<li>Among independent aftermarket (IAM) stores in China, Tuhu ranked first in terms of both number of stores as of 31 December 2022 and annual automotive service revenue in 2022.</li>
<li>The investment case rests on the return to growth, improving gross margin, a shift to profitability and a return to cash generation.</li>
</ul>



Tuhu Car (2007986D HK), a leading integrated online and offline platform for automotive service in China, is set to open books for its US$300 million IPO.   
Among independent aftermarket (IAM) stores in China, Tuhu ranked first in terms of both number of stores as of 31 December 2022 and annual automotive service revenue in 2022.
The investment case rests on the return to growth, improving gross margin, a shift to profitability and a return to cash generation.


Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy Group / Index Rebalance

Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy Group (1250 HK)

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in December 2023.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I expect one ADD and one DEL for HSCEI in December 2023. </li>
<li>There is more than one potential ADD in the top 40 according to my estimates but recent history tells us some of these names are not "<em>index-provider-friendly.</em>"</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in December 2023.
Based on the latest available data, I expect one ADD and one DEL for HSCEI in December 2023. 
There is more than one potential ADD in the top 40 according to my estimates but recent history tells us some of these names are not "index-provider-friendly."


Quiddity HSCEI Dec 23 Flow Expectations: At Least One Change Likely; There Could Be More

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The September rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-buy-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27796:1" rel="noopener">East Buy (1797 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinopharm-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32:1" rel="noopener">Sinopharm (1099 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo (992 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961)</a>.</li>
<li>The largest passive outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies (2018 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5225:1" rel="noopener">COGARD (2007)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">CG Services (6098)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The September rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest passive inflows will be on East Buy (1797 HK), JD.com (9618 HK), Ping An (2318 HK), Sinopharm (1099 HK), BYD (1211 HK), Lenovo (992 HK) and Trip.com (9961).
The largest passive outflows will be on Alibaba (9988 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AAC Technologies (2018 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK), COGARD (2007) and CG Services (6098).


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Sep 2023)

<ul>
<li>The JPX Nikkei 400 index rebalance will take place on Wednesday, MSIC on Thursday and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI on Friday.</li>
<li>There are review cutoffs for the MVIS family of indices, and multiple announcements of changes to various indices during the week.</li>
<li>There were inflows to mainland China ETFs, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:282:1" rel="noopener">iShares India ETF (INDA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-small-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32064:1" rel="noopener">Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares EmergingMarkets ex China (EMXC)</a> while there were outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EEM)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The JPX Nikkei 400 index rebalance will take place on Wednesday, MSIC on Thursday and HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI on Friday.
There are review cutoffs for the MVIS family of indices, and multiple announcements of changes to various indices during the week.
There were inflows to mainland China ETFs, iShares India ETF (INDA), Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN) and iShares EmergingMarkets ex China (EMXC) while there were outflows for iShares Emerging Markets (EEM).


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSI, HSTECH, Yuanta ETFs, China ETFs, REMX, KOSPI

Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-meidong-auto-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10795:1" rel="noopener">China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK)</a> announced a profit warning this morning, expecting a 90% decline in net profit for 1H23.  </li>
<li>Luxury auto dealer in China is facing major uncertainties in its business model, with no visibility in the near term.  </li>
<li>However, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> currently employs the best long-term strategy amidst industry transformation.  Suggest to keep a close eye on the name. </li>
</ul>



China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK) announced a profit warning this morning, expecting a 90% decline in net profit for 1H23.  
Luxury auto dealer in China is facing major uncertainties in its business model, with no visibility in the near term.  
However, Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) currently employs the best long-term strategy amidst industry transformation.  Suggest to keep a close eye on the name. 


Zhongsheng Group (881 HK):  Could Be A Winner In The Long Run, But No Short-Term Visibility

China

Zhongsheng Group is a leading national automobile dealership group in China, specializing in the sale of new and used luxury and mid-to-high-end automobiles, including brands like Mercedes-Benz, Lexus, and Audi. The company also provides comprehensive after-sales services, such as repair, maintenance, spare parts, accessories, and related auto finance and insurance services. It was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Dalian, China.

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Zhongsheng (881 HK)

TUHU Car IPO: The Investment Case

The investment case rests on the return to growth, improving gross margin, a shift to profitability and a return to cash generation.

Arun George

Quiddity HSCEI Dec 23 Flow Expectations: At Least One Change Likely; There Could Be More

Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK) / Beijing Energy (686 HK) and Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK) / Concord New Energy (182 HK) price...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Sep 2023)

The September rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The one-way trade across all stocks across...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSI, HSTECH, Yuanta ETFs, China ETFs, REMX, KOSPI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Zhongsheng Group (881 HK): Could Be A Winner In The Long Run, But No Short-Term Visibility

Meidong profit warning. Luxury auto dealer's business model in China is facing major uncertainties, with no visibility in the near term.

Steve

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