HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following a 20% rally in 1H25, the market has built in excessive optimism on the HSI. Historically, average returns for Jul-Oct are negative, suggesting caution is needed.</li>
<li>The top 10 best-performing constituents are sitting on 24x FY25F PER, much higher than 11x for the Index, implying that earnings excitement has been well factored in. </li>
<li>Among the worst-performing ones in 1H25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> look appealing in 2H25.</li>
</ul>


Following a 20% rally in 1H25, the market has built in excessive optimism on the HSI. Historically, average returns for Jul-Oct are negative, suggesting caution is needed.
The top 10 best-performing constituents are sitting on 24x FY25F PER, much higher than 11x for the Index, implying that earnings excitement has been well factored in. 
Among the worst-performing ones in 1H25, BYD Electronics (285 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Techtronic Industries (669 HK) look appealing in 2H25.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Jardine Matheson Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a>'s 77.8%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dfi-retail-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7427:1" rel="noopener">DFI Retail Group (DFI SP)</a> has sold its entire 22.2% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinsons-retail-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10598:1" rel="noopener">Robinsons Retail Holdings (RRHI PM)</a> for ~US$283mn to "support its capital allocation strategy".</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Matheson are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Matheson (JM SP)'s 77.8%-held DFI Retail Group (DFI SP) has sold its entire 22.2% stake in Robinsons Retail Holdings (RRHI PM) for ~US$283mn to "support its capital allocation strategy".
Preceding my comments on Matheson are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


<ul>
<li>The HSI has already recovered to 2.2% above the pre-"reciprocal tariff" level, and the top 10 best-performing constituents have registered an average return of 15.6%.</li>
<li>Despite so, there are still 40 under-performing stocks, with 32 of them remain in the negative zone with an average of 4.8% loss. </li>
<li>Among them, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> look well-positioned to catch up.</li>
</ul>


The HSI has already recovered to 2.2% above the pre-"reciprocal tariff" level, and the top 10 best-performing constituents have registered an average return of 15.6%.
Despite so, there are still 40 under-performing stocks, with 32 of them remain in the negative zone with an average of 4.8% loss. 
Among them, ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK), Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK), BYD Electronics (285 HK), and Meituan (3690 HK) look well-positioned to catch up.


HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 6 June.</li>
<li>With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 1.9% with 3 stocks being capped and FAF changes for a few stocks due to a methodology change for Secondary Listings. </li>
<li>We highlight 7 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. Everything depends on the index committee, and we would not be surprised by zero changes.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 June.
With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 1.9% with 3 stocks being capped and FAF changes for a few stocks due to a methodology change for Secondary Listings. 
We highlight 7 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. Everything depends on the index committee, and we would not be surprised by zero changes.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June25

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> posted a 11% drop in FY24 underlying profit; but has promptly gained 9% since.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Matheson are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) posted a 11% drop in FY24 underlying profit; but has promptly gained 9% since.
Preceding my comments on Matheson are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


China

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd. retails automobiles.  The Company imports and retails primarily luxury and mid- to high-end automobile brands.

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Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)

HK Strategy: Some Ideas for 2H25

Excessive optimism on HSI after a 20% rally YTD, caution needed for Jul-Oct as historically returns are negative. BYD Electronic, Haier Smart...

Osbert Tang, CFA

StubWorld: DFI Exits Robinson Retail

Often it pays to invest where the Keswick invest - or Matheson. At the NAV ave., and below the implied stub ave,, that 's my bet. Outright, or set...

David Blennerhassett

HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June25

We highlight 7 potential inclusions for the HSI in June, though the index committee could make no changes as we have seen in the past. Pop Mart...

Brian Freitas

StubWorld: Matheson Looks Stretched

A stock standard takeaway for certain holdcos is to invest where the family invests - or JMH in this case. However, JMH appers stretched here. I...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Strategy: Some Ideas for 2H25

​Excessive optimism on HSI after a 20% rally YTD, caution needed for Jul-Oct as historically returns are negative. BYD Electronic, Haier Smart...

Osbert Tang, CFA

StubWorld: DFI Exits Robinson Retail

Often it pays to invest where the Keswick invest - or Matheson. At the NAV ave., and below the implied stub ave,, that 's my bet. Outright, or set...

David Blennerhassett

HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

​HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June25

We highlight 7 potential inclusions for the HSI in June, though the index committee could make no changes as we have seen in the past. Pop Mart...

Brian Freitas

StubWorld: Matheson Looks Stretched

A stock standard takeaway for certain holdcos is to invest where the family invests - or JMH in this case. However, JMH appers stretched here. I...

David Blennerhassett

Excessive optimism on HSI after a 20% rally YTD, caution needed for Jul-Oct as historically returns are negative. BYD Electronic, Haier Smart...

HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...