Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Zijin Gold IPO will start trading on 30 September. Zijin Gold is aiming to raise US$3.2 billion (HK$24.98 billion) from its IPO, offering 349 million shares at HK$71.59 each.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold is HK$124.7 per share (74.2% higher than the IPO price). We expect a sharply higher pop on the first day of trading.</li>
<li>If its share price appreciates more than 30-50% or more, we think it is prudent to take some profits off the table (at least 25%-30% of total investment). </li>
</ul>


Zijin Gold IPO will start trading on 30 September. Zijin Gold is aiming to raise US$3.2 billion (HK$24.98 billion) from its IPO, offering 349 million shares at HK$71.59 each.
Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold is HK$124.7 per share (74.2% higher than the IPO price). We expect a sharply higher pop on the first day of trading.
If its share price appreciates more than 30-50% or more, we think it is prudent to take some profits off the table (at least 25%-30% of total investment). 


Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> ’s US$3.2 billion IPO closes tomorrow, Wednesday, September 29.</li>
<li>The pure-play gold miner, backed by Zijin Mining, is priced at an EV/Reserves multiple in the top quartile of global peers.</li>
<li>With high sensitivity to gold price movements, Zijin Gold offers amplified upside potential — and downside risk — versus bullion itself.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) ’s US$3.2 billion IPO closes tomorrow, Wednesday, September 29.
The pure-play gold miner, backed by Zijin Mining, is priced at an EV/Reserves multiple in the top quartile of global peers.
With high sensitivity to gold price movements, Zijin Gold offers amplified upside potential — and downside risk — versus bullion itself.


Zijin Gold IPO: Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis. A High Beta Proxy for Gold

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Quality-Weighted upside: IPO priced at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~US$24bn EV) but forward valuation points to ~US$38.5bn EV (~HK$121/sh), implying ~70% upside at spot gold.</li>
<li>Portfolio strength: Over 55% of 2027E EBITDA is anchored in world-class assets (Ghana, Buriticá, Raygorodok), positioning Zijin ahead of peers that deliver flat growth.</li>
<li>Stronger case than Sep 19 preview: incorporates the reserves uplift (~35 Moz vs. ~27 Moz), clearer project ramps, confirmed cornerstone demand, and new angles via asset benchmarking and quality-weighted valuation.</li>
</ul>


Quality-Weighted upside: IPO priced at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~US$24bn EV) but forward valuation points to ~US$38.5bn EV (~HK$121/sh), implying ~70% upside at spot gold.
Portfolio strength: Over 55% of 2027E EBITDA is anchored in world-class assets (Ghana, Buriticá, Raygorodok), positioning Zijin ahead of peers that deliver flat growth.
Stronger case than Sep 19 preview: incorporates the reserves uplift (~35 Moz vs. ~27 Moz), clearer project ramps, confirmed cornerstone demand, and new angles via asset benchmarking and quality-weighted valuation.


Zijin Gold International (紫金黄金国际) – Quality-Weighted Forward Valuation & Benchmarking

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> IPO offers investors with a bullish outlook on gold prices a timely entry into a pure play gold miner with a globally diversified asset base.</li>
<li>At HKD71.59/share, Zijin Gold IPO is set to raise US$3.2 billion with cornerstone investors already committing about half the deal (US$1.6 billion).</li>
<li>At current gold prices, IPO valuations leave a reasonable buffer; however, a pullback toward year-ago levels would pose significant downside.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO offers investors with a bullish outlook on gold prices a timely entry into a pure play gold miner with a globally diversified asset base.
At HKD71.59/share, Zijin Gold IPO is set to raise US$3.2 billion with cornerstone investors already committing about half the deal (US$1.6 billion).
At current gold prices, IPO valuations leave a reasonable buffer; however, a pullback toward year-ago levels would pose significant downside.


Zijin Gold IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations. For the Gold Bulls.

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>The spin-off of Zijin for an independent listing is equivalent to presenting a "pure gold business" to the market. Such "asset revaluation" can unlock the hidden value of gold business.</li>
<li>For enterprises like Zijin in the upstream of gold industry chain, a sustained high and rising gold price is usually a significant positive factor. However, there are also potential risks.</li>
<li>Zijin Gold has better growth potential than peers, so we think its valuation range could be P/E of 18-22x. If based on 2025 net profit forecast, valuation is US$36.9-45.1 billion.</li>
</ul>


The spin-off of Zijin for an independent listing is equivalent to presenting a "pure gold business" to the market. Such "asset revaluation" can unlock the hidden value of gold business.
For enterprises like Zijin in the upstream of gold industry chain, a sustained high and rising gold price is usually a significant positive factor. However, there are also potential risks.
Zijin Gold has better growth potential than peers, so we think its valuation range could be P/E of 18-22x. If based on 2025 net profit forecast, valuation is US$36.9-45.1 billion.


Pre-IPO Zijin Gold (PHIP Updates) - Thoughts on the Business, the Forecast and Valuation Outlook

Hong Kong

Zijin Gold is a leading gold mining company formed by combining all the gold mines of Zijin Mining (ZM), located outside of China. Leveraging ZM’s competitive advantage in management of exploration, development and operation of low-grade and refractory resources, ZG has emerged as a global leading and market-oriented gold mining company, vertically integrated through the value chain.

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Zijin Gold (2259 HK)

Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO

Zijin Gold IPO will start trading on 30 September. Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold is HK$124.7 per share (74.2% higher than the IPO price).

Douglas Kim

Zijin Gold IPO: Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis. A High Beta Proxy for Gold

Zijin Gold's IPO is priced at premium valuations. It's high gold price sensitivity offer investors amplified upside if the gold rally continues —...

Devi Subhakesan

Zijin Gold International (紫金黄金国际) – Quality-Weighted Forward Valuation & Benchmarking

Zijin's IPO priced at 8x EV/EBITDA with potential 70% upside, backed by world-class assets and strong growth prospects.

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations. For the Gold Bulls.

If you expect gold to stay higher for longer, Zijin Gold’s IPO looks appealing, but if gold retraces toward year-ago levels, rich valuations leave...

Devi Subhakesan

Pre-IPO Zijin Gold (PHIP Updates) - Thoughts on the Business, the Forecast and Valuation Outlook

Zijin Gold's IPO is priced at HK$71.59, with market value of US$24bn. Such IPO pricing is attractive and leaves decent upside potential for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO

Zijin Gold IPO will start trading on 30 September. Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold is HK$124.7 per share (74.2% higher than the IPO price).

Douglas Kim

Zijin Gold IPO: Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis. A High Beta Proxy for Gold

Zijin Gold's IPO is priced at premium valuations. It's high gold price sensitivity offer investors amplified upside if the gold rally continues —...

Devi Subhakesan

Zijin Gold International (紫金黄金国际) – Quality-Weighted Forward Valuation & Benchmarking

​Zijin's IPO priced at 8x EV/EBITDA with potential 70% upside, backed by world-class assets and strong growth prospects.

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations. For the Gold Bulls.

If you expect gold to stay higher for longer, Zijin Gold’s IPO looks appealing, but if gold retraces toward year-ago levels, rich valuations leave...

Devi Subhakesan

Pre-IPO Zijin Gold (PHIP Updates) - Thoughts on the Business, the Forecast and Valuation Outlook

Zijin Gold's IPO is priced at HK$71.59, with market value of US$24bn. Such IPO pricing is attractive and leaves decent upside potential for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zijin's IPO priced at 8x EV/EBITDA with potential 70% upside, backed by world-class assets and strong growth prospects.