Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Zijin has guided for a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit to RMB 23.2 billion, driven by strong copper and gold pricing and volume gains.</li>
<li>Based on this, we see scope to revise our FY2025 PAT and EPS estimates up by 16–19%, and EBITDA by 35–50%.</li>
<li>The proposed listing of Zijin Gold International in Hong Kong could unlock value from its high-margin overseas gold assets and enhance investor visibility.</li>
</ul>


Zijin has guided for a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit to RMB 23.2 billion, driven by strong copper and gold pricing and volume gains.
Based on this, we see scope to revise our FY2025 PAT and EPS estimates up by 16–19%, and EBITDA by 35–50%.
The proposed listing of Zijin Gold International in Hong Kong could unlock value from its high-margin overseas gold assets and enhance investor visibility.


Zijin Mining: Strong H1 Guidance, FY25 Upgrades Likely, Gold Listing Adds Catalyst

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul>
<li>Zijin Mining Group Co. Ltd., China’s largest gold producer, is carving out its fast-growing international operations for an initial public offering (IPO) in Hong Kong, aiming to build a well-funded global powerhouse as gold prices reach record heights.</li>
<li>Already listed in Hong Kong and Shanghai, Zijin announced Monday that its subsidiary Zijin Gold International Co. Ltd. has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>The offering — jointly underwritten by Morgan Stanley and Citic Securities — will float up to 15% of the unit’s shares, with an overallotment option of an additional 15% of that tranche.</li>
</ul>


Zijin Mining Group Co. Ltd., China’s largest gold producer, is carving out its fast-growing international operations for an initial public offering (IPO) in Hong Kong, aiming to build a well-funded global powerhouse as gold prices reach record heights.
Already listed in Hong Kong and Shanghai, Zijin announced Monday that its subsidiary Zijin Gold International Co. Ltd. has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
The offering — jointly underwritten by Morgan Stanley and Citic Securities — will float up to 15% of the unit’s shares, with an overallotment option of an additional 15% of that tranche.


Zijin to Float Its Overseas Arm to Fund Global Expansion as Gold Prices Soar 

<ul>
<li>Zijin has acquired one of Kazakhstan’s largest gold mines, Raygorodok, adding 3.2 Moz in reserves and 193 koz in annual production.</li>
<li>He asset is highly profitable (USD 202m net profit in 2024) with low costs (USD 796/oz), lifting Zijin’s output by 8% and reserves by 4%.</li>
<li>5.9x P/E and 3.3x EV/EBITDA, the deal looks attractively priced and enhances the scale, margins, and IPO narrative for Zijin Gold International.</li>
</ul>


Zijin has acquired one of Kazakhstan’s largest gold mines, Raygorodok, adding 3.2 Moz in reserves and 193 koz in annual production.
He asset is highly profitable (USD 202m net profit in 2024) with low costs (USD 796/oz), lifting Zijin’s output by 8% and reserves by 4%.
5.9x P/E and 3.3x EV/EBITDA, the deal looks attractively priced and enhances the scale, margins, and IPO narrative for Zijin Gold International.


Zijin Mining (601899.SS): Acquires Kazakhstan’s Raygorodok Gold Mine for USD 1.2 Billion

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
<li>That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.</li>
<li>The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.
The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

<ul>
<li>Zijin plans to IPO its overseas gold unit, targeting 85t output in 2025; timeline not yet disclosed.</li>
<li>SOTP values copper business at RMB 592 bn, gold at RMB 190–200 bn, lithium adds RMB 18–28 bn.</li>
<li>Stock trades ~15–20% below intrinsic value, offering ~25–26% upside even without IPO re-rating.</li>
</ul>


Zijin plans to IPO its overseas gold unit, targeting 85t output in 2025; timeline not yet disclosed.
SOTP values copper business at RMB 592 bn, gold at RMB 190–200 bn, lithium adds RMB 18–28 bn.
Stock trades ~15–20% below intrinsic value, offering ~25–26% upside even without IPO re-rating.


Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fair Value Still 25% Higher Despite IPO Discount Risks

China

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

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Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)

Zijin Mining: Strong H1 Guidance, FY25 Upgrades Likely, Gold Listing Adds Catalyst

Zijin expects a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit, prompting potential revisions to estimates and plans for a Hong Kong listing to unlock value.

Rahul Jain

Zijin to Float Its Overseas Arm to Fund Global Expansion as Gold Prices Soar

Zijin Mining Group Co. Ltd. , China’s largest gold producer, is carving out its fast-growing international operations for an initial public...

Caixin Global

Zijin Mining (601899.SS): Acquires Kazakhstan’s Raygorodok Gold Mine for USD 1.2 Billion

Zijin acquires Kazakhstan's Raygorodok gold mine, boosting reserves and production while enhancing profitability and scale.

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

The GDX ETF has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index. Estimated turnover...

Brian Freitas

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fair Value Still 25% Higher Despite IPO Discount Risks

Zijin plans IPO for overseas gold unit, aiming for 85t output by 2025; stock undervalued with potential for 25-26% upside.

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Zijin Mining: Strong H1 Guidance, FY25 Upgrades Likely, Gold Listing Adds Catalyst

​Zijin expects a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit, prompting potential revisions to estimates and plans for a Hong Kong listing to unlock value.

Rahul Jain

Zijin to Float Its Overseas Arm to Fund Global Expansion as Gold Prices Soar

Zijin Mining Group Co. Ltd. , China’s largest gold producer, is carving out its fast-growing international operations for an initial public...

Caixin Global

Zijin Mining (601899.SS): Acquires Kazakhstan’s Raygorodok Gold Mine for USD 1.2 Billion

​Zijin acquires Kazakhstan's Raygorodok gold mine, boosting reserves and production while enhancing profitability and scale.

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

The GDX ETF has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index. Estimated turnover...

Brian Freitas

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fair Value Still 25% Higher Despite IPO Discount Risks

​Zijin plans IPO for overseas gold unit, aiming for 85t output by 2025; stock undervalued with potential for 25-26% upside.

Rahul Jain

Zijin expects a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit, prompting potential revisions to estimates and plans for a Hong Kong listing to unlock value.

Zijin acquires Kazakhstan's Raygorodok gold mine, boosting reserves and production while enhancing profitability and scale.

Zijin plans IPO for overseas gold unit, aiming for 85t output by 2025; stock undervalued with potential for 25-26% upside.