Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A 4–6 month Kakula disruption could reduce Zijin’s 2025 copper output by 4–8%, cutting EBITDA by ~7–11%.</li>
<li>Ramp-Ups at Julong and Čukaru Peki can offset ~60–70% of the lost volume and partially protect margins.</li>
<li>Lithium is expected to grow from 8% to 20% of EBITDA by 2028, driven by 300kt LCE capacity from low-cost brine assets.</li>
</ul>


A 4–6 month Kakula disruption could reduce Zijin’s 2025 copper output by 4–8%, cutting EBITDA by ~7–11%.
Ramp-Ups at Julong and Čukaru Peki can offset ~60–70% of the lost volume and partially protect margins.
Lithium is expected to grow from 8% to 20% of EBITDA by 2028, driven by 300kt LCE capacity from low-cost brine assets.


Zijin Mining (601899 CH / 2899 HK): Evaluating the Impact of Kakula Suspension

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>5-Year Growth: EBITDA doubled to RMB 72.6 bn; production scaled across copper, gold, and lithium through global M&amp;A and low-cost execution.</li>
<li>Capex Plans: USD 10.4 bn over 5 years across copper, lithium, and gold; includes Zijin Gold International spin-off by late 2025.</li>
<li>Zijin is projected to deliver 19–27% CAGR in EBITDA and net profit through 2026, yet trades at just 6.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA — a notable discount to peers trading at 7–8x</li>
</ul>


5-Year Growth: EBITDA doubled to RMB 72.6 bn; production scaled across copper, gold, and lithium through global M&amp;A and low-cost execution.
Capex Plans: USD 10.4 bn over 5 years across copper, lithium, and gold; includes Zijin Gold International spin-off by late 2025.
Zijin is projected to deliver 19–27% CAGR in EBITDA and net profit through 2026, yet trades at just 6.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA — a notable discount to peers trading at 7–8x


Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Fast and furious moves up in silver, PGM and related metals</li>
<li>Sectors we have highlighted as inflation beneficiaries starting to attract capital</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Fast and furious moves up in silver, PGM and related metals
Sectors we have highlighted as inflation beneficiaries starting to attract capital


Overview # 28 – Capital Flows into Hard Assets Continue

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>With China's slew of stimulus measures released last month, we are confident that copper prices will break 10,000 USD/ton soon. </li>
<li>The COMEX spread with LME has now started to build up to over 300 USD/ton, signaling that macro funds are getting bullish on copper.</li>
<li>We continue to like the equity route to play copper with pure plays like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ivanhoe-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25338:1" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


With China's slew of stimulus measures released last month, we are confident that copper prices will break 10,000 USD/ton soon. 
The COMEX spread with LME has now started to build up to over 300 USD/ton, signaling that macro funds are getting bullish on copper.
We continue to like the equity route to play copper with pure plays like Southern Copper (SCCO US) , Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN), and Teck Resources (TECK US).


Copper Tracker Oct 7th, 2024: Copper Set to Pass 10,000 USD/Ton

China

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

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Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)

Zijin Mining (601899 CH / 2899 HK): Evaluating the Impact of Kakula Suspension

Potential Kakula disruption could impact Zijin's copper output and EBITDA, but ramp-ups at other sites and growth in lithium could partially...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast

In May 2025, Zijin Mining considered halting operations at its Kyzyl-Tashtyg zinc-lead mine in Russia due to sanctions and banking restrictions,...

Rahul Jain

Overview # 28 – Capital Flows into Hard Assets Continue

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the continued move up in inflation beneficiaries

Rikki Malik

Copper Tracker Oct 7th, 2024: Copper Set to Pass 10,000 USD/Ton

With the slew of Chinese stimulus measures, we discuss how to play the copper price increasing beyond 10,000 USD/ton in the near-term.

Sameer Taneja

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Zijin Mining (601899 CH / 2899 HK): Evaluating the Impact of Kakula Suspension

​Potential Kakula disruption could impact Zijin's copper output and EBITDA, but ramp-ups at other sites and growth in lithium could partially...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast

In May 2025, Zijin Mining considered halting operations at its Kyzyl-Tashtyg zinc-lead mine in Russia due to sanctions and banking restrictions,...

Rahul Jain

Overview # 28 – Capital Flows into Hard Assets Continue

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the continued move up in inflation beneficiaries

Rikki Malik

Copper Tracker Oct 7th, 2024: Copper Set to Pass 10,000 USD/Ton

With the slew of Chinese stimulus measures, we discuss how to play the copper price increasing beyond 10,000 USD/ton in the near-term.

Sameer Taneja

Potential Kakula disruption could impact Zijin's copper output and EBITDA, but ramp-ups at other sites and growth in lithium could partially...