Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are currently 76 index constituents and we can (maybe? finally! hopefully 🤞) get to 80 members in March before commencing the next leg up to 100 index constituents.</li>
<li>We list 10 potential inclusions to the index in March. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to over 6% one-way turnover, so there will be fewer inclusions.</li>
<li>All stocks will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Some stocks have short interest of over 7% of float.</li>
</ul>


There are currently 76 index constituents and we can (maybe? finally! hopefully 🤞) get to 80 members in March before commencing the next leg up to 100 index constituents.
We list 10 potential inclusions to the index in March. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to over 6% one-way turnover, so there will be fewer inclusions.
All stocks will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Some stocks have short interest of over 7% of float.


HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A 4–6 month Kakula disruption could reduce Zijin’s 2025 copper output by 4–8%, cutting EBITDA by ~7–11%.</li>
<li>Ramp-Ups at Julong and Čukaru Peki can offset ~60–70% of the lost volume and partially protect margins.</li>
<li>Lithium is expected to grow from 8% to 20% of EBITDA by 2028, driven by 300kt LCE capacity from low-cost brine assets.</li>
</ul>


A 4–6 month Kakula disruption could reduce Zijin’s 2025 copper output by 4–8%, cutting EBITDA by ~7–11%.
Ramp-Ups at Julong and Čukaru Peki can offset ~60–70% of the lost volume and partially protect margins.
Lithium is expected to grow from 8% to 20% of EBITDA by 2028, driven by 300kt LCE capacity from low-cost brine assets.


Zijin Mining (601899 CH / 2899 HK): Evaluating the Impact of Kakula Suspension

<ul>
<li>Kakula mining is suspended due to seismic activity; dewatering and repairs are ongoing, with potential resolution by late Q3 2025 as operations gradually stabilize.</li>
<li>Ivanhoe quadrupled copper output since 2021, maintaining over 55% EBITDA margins through high-grade ore and efficient operations.</li>
<li>At US$2,000/t copper reserve value, Ivanhoe offers 40%+ upside—past disruptions like Vale and Freeport saw strong rebounds as uncertainty cleared.</li>
</ul>


Kakula mining is suspended due to seismic activity; dewatering and repairs are ongoing, with potential resolution by late Q3 2025 as operations gradually stabilize.
Ivanhoe quadrupled copper output since 2021, maintaining over 55% EBITDA margins through high-grade ore and efficient operations.
At US$2,000/t copper reserve value, Ivanhoe offers 40%+ upside—past disruptions like Vale and Freeport saw strong rebounds as uncertainty cleared.


Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN): Seismic Setback Creates a Valuation Gap

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 23rd.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Meituan (3690 HK), Bilibili (9626 HK), Kingsoft (3888 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 23rd.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Meituan (3690 HK), Bilibili (9626 HK), Kingsoft (3888 HK).


HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Bilibili, Kingsoft

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In the global copper market the news of trouble at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ivanhoe-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25338:1" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN)</a> large Kamoa-Kakula mine in Congo dominated headlines.</li>
<li>Kamoa-Kakula is the fourth largest global copper mine ramping up supply in the coming years. The issues highlight the necessity for other projects such as Oyo Tolgoi in Mongolia. </li>
<li>In Mongolia, headlines were dominated by political unrest and a "secret" lawsuit by the Mongolian government against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


In the global copper market the news of trouble at Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) large Kamoa-Kakula mine in Congo dominated headlines.
Kamoa-Kakula is the fourth largest global copper mine ramping up supply in the coming years. The issues highlight the necessity for other projects such as Oyo Tolgoi in Mongolia. 
In Mongolia, headlines were dominated by political unrest and a "secret" lawsuit by the Mongolian government against Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU). 


Junior Copper Miners: Ivanhoe's Congo Issues Highlight Need for More Diversified Copper Supply

China

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

Price Gauge
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Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

Adding 4 stocks gets us to 80 members - a target that was to be reached by mid-2022. We list 10 potential adds where passive trackers will need to...

Brian Freitas

Zijin Mining (601899 CH / 2899 HK): Evaluating the Impact of Kakula Suspension

Potential Kakula disruption could impact Zijin's copper output and EBITDA, but ramp-ups at other sites and growth in lithium could partially...

Rahul Jain

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN): Seismic Setback Creates a Valuation Gap

Kakula mining suspended due to seismic activity, Ivanhoe quadruples copper output, potential resolution by late Q3 2025 with 40%+ upside at...

Rahul Jain

HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Bilibili, Kingsoft

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 23rd and highlight short interest changes in Meituan, Bilibili, Kingsoft.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Junior Copper Miners: Ivanhoe's Congo Issues Highlight Need for More Diversified Copper Supply

Trouble at Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula mine in Congo and political unrest in Mongolia highlight challenges in the global copper market.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

Adding 4 stocks gets us to 80 members - a target that was to be reached by mid-2022. We list 10 potential adds where passive trackers will need to...

Brian Freitas

Zijin Mining (601899 CH / 2899 HK): Evaluating the Impact of Kakula Suspension

​Potential Kakula disruption could impact Zijin's copper output and EBITDA, but ramp-ups at other sites and growth in lithium could partially...

Rahul Jain

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN): Seismic Setback Creates a Valuation Gap

​Kakula mining suspended due to seismic activity, Ivanhoe quadruples copper output, potential resolution by late Q3 2025 with 40%+ upside at...

Rahul Jain

HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Bilibili, Kingsoft

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 23rd and highlight short interest changes in Meituan, Bilibili, Kingsoft.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Junior Copper Miners: Ivanhoe's Congo Issues Highlight Need for More Diversified Copper Supply

​Trouble at Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula mine in Congo and political unrest in Mongolia highlight challenges in the global copper market.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Potential Kakula disruption could impact Zijin's copper output and EBITDA, but ramp-ups at other sites and growth in lithium could partially...

Kakula mining suspended due to seismic activity, Ivanhoe quadruples copper output, potential resolution by late Q3 2025 with 40%+ upside at...

Trouble at Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula mine in Congo and political unrest in Mongolia highlight challenges in the global copper market.