Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Rio Tinto has been confirmed as the preferred partner for Chile’s Salares Altoandinos project, marking a major step in scaling its lithium ambitions.</li>
<li>Lithium demand is expected to grow over 5x by 2040, driven by electric vehicles and energy storage, though rising supply and tech shifts may cap long-term pricing.</li>
<li>Zijin Mining is a preferred play given its diversified  -copper and gold and expanding lithium footprint &amp; lower valuation. Albemarle could  face pressure from intensifying competition, rising low-cost supply etc.</li>
</ul>


Rio Tinto has been confirmed as the preferred partner for Chile’s Salares Altoandinos project, marking a major step in scaling its lithium ambitions.
Lithium demand is expected to grow over 5x by 2040, driven by electric vehicles and energy storage, though rising supply and tech shifts may cap long-term pricing.
Zijin Mining is a preferred play given its diversified  -copper and gold and expanding lithium footprint &amp; lower valuation. Albemarle could  face pressure from intensifying competition, rising low-cost supply etc.


Rio Tinto Doubles Down on Lithium: A Late Entrant with Long-Term Intent

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xanadu-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1270:1" rel="noopener">Xanadu (XAM AU)</a></strong>, a Mongolian copper-gold mining play, has <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250519/pdf/06jw159bvb537m.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered a deal with Bastion</a>, two weeks after an agreement with JV partner and major shareholder <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining (601899 CH)</a></strong> lapsed.</li>
<li>Bastion, which comprises Singapore-based Baroo and Xanadu director Ganbayer Lkhagvasuren, are offering A$0.08/share in cash. Bastion is also subscribing for 286.8mn shares, at A$0.06/share, or 13% fully diluted. </li>
<li>The off-market Offer is contingent on a 50.1% acceptance hurdle. CAAF (11.85%) is supportive. No word on how Zijin (19.8% stakeholder, before dilution) will play this. </li>
</ul>



Xanadu (XAM AU), a Mongolian copper-gold mining play, has entered a deal with Bastion, two weeks after an agreement with JV partner and major shareholder Zijin Mining (601899 CH) lapsed.
Bastion, which comprises Singapore-based Baroo and Xanadu director Ganbayer Lkhagvasuren, are offering A$0.08/share in cash. Bastion is also subscribing for 286.8mn shares, at A$0.06/share, or 13% fully diluted. 
The off-market Offer is contingent on a 50.1% acceptance hurdle. CAAF (11.85%) is supportive. No word on how Zijin (19.8% stakeholder, before dilution) will play this. 


Xanadu Mines (XAM AU) Inks Deal With Bastion After Zijin Tarries

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 25th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in BYD, Meituan, Jd, Kingsoft, China Mobile, CNOOC.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 25th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in BYD, Meituan, Jd, Kingsoft, China Mobile, CNOOC.


HK Short Interest Weekly: BYD, Meituan, Jd, Kingsoft, China Mobile, CNOOC

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Reports continue to indicate a US$5bn raise for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL H-shares</a> with a discount of up to 10% to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (300750 CH)</a> and with cornerstone investors taking up half the deal.</li>
<li>The company is currently gauging investor demand. The IPO could open next week and the H-shares could list later this month.</li>
<li>Index Fast Entry largely depends on the cornerstone investor allocation. Float higher than 50%/60% is required for Fast Entry to global indices.</li>
</ul>


Reports continue to indicate a US$5bn raise for CATL H-shares with a discount of up to 10% to CATL (300750 CH) and with cornerstone investors taking up half the deal.
The company is currently gauging investor demand. The IPO could open next week and the H-shares could list later this month.
Index Fast Entry largely depends on the cornerstone investor allocation. Float higher than 50%/60% is required for Fast Entry to global indices.


CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows of Alibaba, TraHK HSI ETF, Tencent, Meituan, HSCEI ETF.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of Alibaba, TraHK HSI ETF, Tencent, Meituan, HSCEI ETF.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (April): US$22bn Inflows

China

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

Price Gauge
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Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)

Rio Tinto Doubles Down on Lithium: A Late Entrant with Long-Term Intent

Rio Tinto expands lithium ambitions - EVs & energy storage demand growth. Zijin Mining favored for diversified portfolio, Albemarle may face...

Rahul Jain

Xanadu Mines (XAM AU) Inks Deal With Bastion After Zijin Tarries

This is largely a clean deal. Trading at terms. Will Zijin now step up to the plate? Arguably its NBIO has not been withdrawn. If small, illiquid...

David Blennerhassett

HK Short Interest Weekly: BYD, Meituan, Jd, Kingsoft, China Mobile, CNOOC

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 25th and highlight short interest changes in BYD, Meituan, Jd,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears

CATL is said to be raising US$5bn at a single digit discount with half the deal allocated to cornerstones. Listing could take place late May. Index...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (April): US$22bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlighted flows for Alibaba, TraHK HSI ETF, Tencent, Meituan, HSCEI ETF.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Rio Tinto Doubles Down on Lithium: A Late Entrant with Long-Term Intent

​Rio Tinto expands lithium ambitions - EVs & energy storage demand growth. Zijin Mining favored for diversified portfolio, Albemarle may face...

Rahul Jain

Xanadu Mines (XAM AU) Inks Deal With Bastion After Zijin Tarries

This is largely a clean deal. Trading at terms. Will Zijin now step up to the plate? Arguably its NBIO has not been withdrawn. If small, illiquid...

David Blennerhassett

HK Short Interest Weekly: BYD, Meituan, Jd, Kingsoft, China Mobile, CNOOC

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 25th and highlight short interest changes in BYD, Meituan, Jd,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears

CATL is said to be raising US$5bn at a single digit discount with half the deal allocated to cornerstones. Listing could take place late May. Index...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (April): US$22bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlighted flows for Alibaba, TraHK HSI ETF, Tencent, Meituan, HSCEI ETF.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Rio Tinto expands lithium ambitions - EVs & energy storage demand growth. Zijin Mining favored for diversified portfolio, Albemarle may face...