IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a>. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:201176" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-phip-updates-support-the-investment-thesis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:201970" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.
I previously discussed the IPO in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis.
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.


Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is looking to raise US$3.2bn in its upcoming HK IPO.</li>
<li>It s a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise US$3.2bn in its upcoming HK IPO.
It s a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.


Zijin Gold IPO: Strong Cornerstone Book; Should Trade at Premium to Group

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Supply-Constrained asset: Mine output is growing &lt;1% CAGR and recycling is flat, leaving gold’s supply side structurally inelastic.</li>
<li>Demand shifting institutional: Jewellery’s share is falling below 30% by 2030, while central banks and ETFs could account for ~70% of demand.</li>
<li>Macro-Driven pricing: Gold trades as a reserve asset, with real rates setting the ceiling — scenarios range from $2,800/oz (bear) to $7,500/oz (bull).</li>
</ul>


Supply-Constrained asset: Mine output is growing &lt;1% CAGR and recycling is flat, leaving gold’s supply side structurally inelastic.
Demand shifting institutional: Jewellery’s share is falling below 30% by 2030, while central banks and ETFs could account for ~70% of demand.
Macro-Driven pricing: Gold trades as a reserve asset, with real rates setting the ceiling — scenarios range from $2,800/oz (bear) to $7,500/oz (bull).


Gold 2030: Strategic Floor, Uncertain Ceiling

<ul>
<li>Supply-Led Rally: Zinc has rebounded ~15% to ~US$3,000/t, driven by mine curtailments, smelter shutdowns, collapsing TCs, and low inventories.</li>
<li>China Stimulus Tailwind: Beijing’s CNY 1tn package lifts sentiment for galvanised steel, which makes up ~60% of zinc demand, reinforcing price momentum.</li>
<li>Valuation Impact: Hindustan Zinc justifies a premium on pure-play exposure, while Vedanta offers cheaper diversified optionality; sustainability of prices above US$3,000/t remains the key investor question.</li>
</ul>


Supply-Led Rally: Zinc has rebounded ~15% to ~US$3,000/t, driven by mine curtailments, smelter shutdowns, collapsing TCs, and low inventories.
China Stimulus Tailwind: Beijing’s CNY 1tn package lifts sentiment for galvanised steel, which makes up ~60% of zinc demand, reinforcing price momentum.
Valuation Impact: Hindustan Zinc justifies a premium on pure-play exposure, while Vedanta offers cheaper diversified optionality; sustainability of prices above US$3,000/t remains the key investor question.


Zinc Rally – Supply-Led Momentum Near US$3,000/T: Can It Last?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Buy Case: ~20% CAGR growth to 2027E, SOE backing, and potential index inclusion make Zijin the fastest-growing gold producer globally.</li>
<li>Sell Case: At $40bn, Zijin trades at major-level multiples with mid-tier reserve depth, raising questions on sustainability.</li>
<li>Swing Factor: Gold price trajectory and flawless execution in Ghana, Laos, and Kazakhstan will determine if the IPO clears closer to the low or high end of the range.</li>
</ul>


Buy Case: ~20% CAGR growth to 2027E, SOE backing, and potential index inclusion make Zijin the fastest-growing gold producer globally.
Sell Case: At $40bn, Zijin trades at major-level multiples with mid-tier reserve depth, raising questions on sustainability.
Swing Factor: Gold price trajectory and flawless execution in Ghana, Laos, and Kazakhstan will determine if the IPO clears closer to the low or high end of the range.


Zijin Gold IPO – The World’s Fastest-Growing Gold Producer, but at What Price?

China

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

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Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Zijin Gold has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price...

Arun George

Zijin Gold IPO: Strong Cornerstone Book; Should Trade at Premium to Group

Zijin Gold is looking to raise US$3.2bn in its upcoming HK IPO. We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this...

Nicholas Tan

Gold 2030: Strategic Floor, Uncertain Ceiling

Gold supply is limited, demand is shifting towards institutions, and macro factors will drive pricing between $2,800 and $7,500 per ounce.

Rahul Jain

Zinc Rally – Supply-Led Momentum Near US$3,000/T: Can It Last?

Zinc prices surge due to supply constraints and China stimulus, impacting Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta valuations. Sustainability above US$3,000/t...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold IPO – The World’s Fastest-Growing Gold Producer, but at What Price?

Zijin, a fast-growing gold producer backed by SOE, faces sustainability concerns due to high valuation and reserve depth, with IPO success...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Zijin Gold has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price...

Arun George

Zijin Gold IPO: Strong Cornerstone Book; Should Trade at Premium to Group

Zijin Gold is looking to raise US$3.2bn in its upcoming HK IPO. We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this...

Nicholas Tan

Gold 2030: Strategic Floor, Uncertain Ceiling

​Gold supply is limited, demand is shifting towards institutions, and macro factors will drive pricing between $2,800 and $7,500 per ounce.

Rahul Jain

Zinc Rally – Supply-Led Momentum Near US$3,000/T: Can It Last?

​Zinc prices surge due to supply constraints and China stimulus, impacting Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta valuations. Sustainability above US$3,000/t...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold IPO – The World’s Fastest-Growing Gold Producer, but at What Price?

​Zijin, a fast-growing gold producer backed by SOE, faces sustainability concerns due to high valuation and reserve depth, with IPO success...

Rahul Jain

Gold supply is limited, demand is shifting towards institutions, and macro factors will drive pricing between $2,800 and $7,500 per ounce.

Zinc prices surge due to supply constraints and China stimulus, impacting Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta valuations. Sustainability above US$3,000/t...

Zijin, a fast-growing gold producer backed by SOE, faces sustainability concerns due to high valuation and reserve depth, with IPO success...