Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Zijin plans to IPO its overseas gold unit, targeting 85t output in 2025; timeline not yet disclosed.</li>
<li>SOTP values copper business at RMB 592 bn, gold at RMB 190–200 bn, lithium adds RMB 18–28 bn.</li>
<li>Stock trades ~15–20% below intrinsic value, offering ~25–26% upside even without IPO re-rating.</li>
</ul>


Zijin plans to IPO its overseas gold unit, targeting 85t output in 2025; timeline not yet disclosed.
SOTP values copper business at RMB 592 bn, gold at RMB 190–200 bn, lithium adds RMB 18–28 bn.
Stock trades ~15–20% below intrinsic value, offering ~25–26% upside even without IPO re-rating.


Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fair Value Still 25% Higher Despite IPO Discount Risks

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
<li>The benchmark change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.15bn.</li>
<li>The flow and turnover numbers will change following constituent and capping changes for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the September rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
The benchmark change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.15bn.
The flow and turnover numbers will change following constituent and capping changes for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the September rebalance.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Impact of Benchmark Change - Update

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 155 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 71.7% as of Jun 20th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.5ppt week-on-week, led by energy, health care, utilities and offset by consumer staples, real estate, consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Petrochina, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences, China Oilfield Services, Shanghai Petrochemical.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 155 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 71.7% as of Jun 20th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.5ppt week-on-week, led by energy, health care, utilities and offset by consumer staples, real estate, consumer discretionary.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Petrochina, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences, China Oilfield Services, Shanghai Petrochemical.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 20th): Petrochina, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences, China Oilfield Services

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 13th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Beke, Zijin Mining, Wuxi Apptec, AIA, Tencent, BYD, Li Auto.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 13th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Beke, Zijin Mining, Wuxi Apptec, AIA, Tencent, BYD, Li Auto.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Beke, Zijin Mining, Wuxi Apptec, AIA, Tencent, BYD, Li Auto

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>We look at certain investor positioning in the commodity sector</li>
<li>A bear market rally in the USD is the biggest risk and opportunity.</li>
<li>We add some soft commodities to the inflation beneficiaries' basket</li>
</ul>


We look at certain investor positioning in the commodity sector
A bear market rally in the USD is the biggest risk and opportunity.
We add some soft commodities to the inflation beneficiaries' basket


Overview# 29- The Hard-Asset Reset: Buying the Pullback in Commodities

China

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

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Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fair Value Still 25% Higher Despite IPO Discount Risks

Zijin plans IPO for overseas gold unit, aiming for 85t output by 2025; stock undervalued with potential for 25-26% upside.

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Impact of Benchmark Change - Update

Following the benchmark change, the GDX ETF could need to buy 8 stocks and sell 26 stocks. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.5% and the round-trip...

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 20th): Petrochina, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences, China Oilfield Services

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Petrochina, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences, China Oilfield...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Beke, Zijin Mining, Wuxi Apptec, AIA, Tencent, BYD, Li Auto

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 13th and highlight short interest changes in Beke, Zijin Mining, Wuxi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Overview# 29- The Hard-Asset Reset: Buying the Pullback in Commodities

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the longer term commodity move in the context of the current...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fair Value Still 25% Higher Despite IPO Discount Risks

​Zijin plans IPO for overseas gold unit, aiming for 85t output by 2025; stock undervalued with potential for 25-26% upside.

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Impact of Benchmark Change - Update

Following the benchmark change, the GDX ETF could need to buy 8 stocks and sell 26 stocks. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.5% and the round-trip...

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 20th): Petrochina, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences, China Oilfield Services

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Petrochina, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences, China Oilfield...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Beke, Zijin Mining, Wuxi Apptec, AIA, Tencent, BYD, Li Auto

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 13th and highlight short interest changes in Beke, Zijin Mining, Wuxi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Overview# 29- The Hard-Asset Reset: Buying the Pullback in Commodities

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the longer term commodity move in the context of the current...

Rikki Malik

Zijin plans IPO for overseas gold unit, aiming for 85t output by 2025; stock undervalued with potential for 25-26% upside.