Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Supply-Led Rally: Zinc has rebounded ~15% to ~US$3,000/t, driven by mine curtailments, smelter shutdowns, collapsing TCs, and low inventories.</li>
<li>China Stimulus Tailwind: Beijing’s CNY 1tn package lifts sentiment for galvanised steel, which makes up ~60% of zinc demand, reinforcing price momentum.</li>
<li>Valuation Impact: Hindustan Zinc justifies a premium on pure-play exposure, while Vedanta offers cheaper diversified optionality; sustainability of prices above US$3,000/t remains the key investor question.</li>
</ul>


Supply-Led Rally: Zinc has rebounded ~15% to ~US$3,000/t, driven by mine curtailments, smelter shutdowns, collapsing TCs, and low inventories.
China Stimulus Tailwind: Beijing’s CNY 1tn package lifts sentiment for galvanised steel, which makes up ~60% of zinc demand, reinforcing price momentum.
Valuation Impact: Hindustan Zinc justifies a premium on pure-play exposure, while Vedanta offers cheaper diversified optionality; sustainability of prices above US$3,000/t remains the key investor question.


Zinc Rally – Supply-Led Momentum Near US$3,000/T: Can It Last?

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>The current macro environment has elements of both the 1970's and mid-2000s commodity bull market</li>
<li>Investor interest and allocation to this asset class is still minimal</li>
<li>A rising cost of capital globally favours a move out of long duration into real assets</li>
</ul>


The current macro environment has elements of both the 1970's and mid-2000s commodity bull market
Investor interest and allocation to this asset class is still minimal
A rising cost of capital globally favours a move out of long duration into real assets


2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.</li>
<li>Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.</li>
<li>Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. </li>
</ul>


Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.
Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.
Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. 


Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

Hot Topics in Global Metals & Mining Each Week, BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

Hot Topics in Global Metals & Mining Each Week

Featuring Colin Hamilton, Commodities analyst at BMO Capital Markets, Metal Matters discusses the hot topics in Global Metals & Mining each week.

<ul><li>Despite initial concerns about tariffs and policy uncertainty hurting global economy, many major metals have seen significant price gains this year</li><li>Tariffs have been implemented, but manufacturers have absorbed costs in margins rather than passing them on to consumers</li><li>Despite signs of economic strain in recent data, commodity prices remain strong due to US dollar weakness making commodities more affordable for importing countries</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Despite initial concerns about tariffs and policy uncertainty hurting global economy, many major metals have seen significant price gains this yearTariffs have been implemented, but manufacturers have absorbed costs in margins rather than passing them on to consumersDespite signs of economic strain in recent data, commodity prices remain strong due to US dollar weakness making commodities more affordable for importing countriesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>FAO's meat price index hit a new all-time high of 127.3 points, up 1.2% from its previous peak in June, as strong import demand from China and the United States boosted beef and sheep meat prices, the agency said.</li><li>U.S. beef imports have climbed after drought led to a decline in the domestic cattle herd.</li><li>Looking at the latest futures prices, live cattle, feeder cattle and even lean hogs remain in a strong uptrend with a significant backwardation remaining within the forward curve.</li></ul>

FAO's meat price index hit a new all-time high of 127.3 points, up 1.2% from its previous peak in June, as strong import demand from China and the United States boosted beef and sheep meat prices, the agency said.U.S. beef imports have climbed after drought led to a decline in the domestic cattle herd.Looking at the latest futures prices, live cattle, feeder cattle and even lean hogs remain in a strong uptrend with a significant backwardation remaining within the forward curve.

United States

Zinc is a bluish-white, silvery metal used in various applications, including galvanizing to protect other metals from corrosion. It's also a crucial trace mineral for human health. As a commodity, zinc is known for its low melting point, good thermal and electrical conductivity, and is often used in industries like automotive, chemical, and electrical.

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Zinc (ZINC COMDTY)

Zinc Rally – Supply-Led Momentum Near US$3,000/T: Can It Last?

Zinc prices surge due to supply constraints and China stimulus, impacting Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta valuations. Sustainability above US$3,000/t...

Rahul Jain

2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices

Why a basket of commodity producers provide a good risk reward for any portfolio looking to get a real return. Underowned and unloved!

Rikki Malik

Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Rahul Jain

Debating a New Up-Cycle

- Metal prices have seen gains, with gold, silver, and platinum performing well, while coal, zinc, and nickel struggle, US tariffs are in place...

BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

Meat Prices Rise and Rise and Rise

Looking at the latest futures prices, live cattle, feeder cattle and even lean hogs remain in a strong uptrend with a significant backwardation...

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Zinc Rally – Supply-Led Momentum Near US$3,000/T: Can It Last?

​Zinc prices surge due to supply constraints and China stimulus, impacting Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta valuations. Sustainability above US$3,000/t...

Rahul Jain

2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices

Why a basket of commodity producers provide a good risk reward for any portfolio looking to get a real return. Underowned and unloved!

Rikki Malik

Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

​2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Rahul Jain

Debating a New Up-Cycle

- Metal prices have seen gains, with gold, silver, and platinum performing well, while coal, zinc, and nickel struggle, US tariffs are in place...

BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

Meat Prices Rise and Rise and Rise

Looking at the latest futures prices, live cattle, feeder cattle and even lean hogs remain in a strong uptrend with a significant backwardation...

The Commodity Report

Zinc prices surge due to supply constraints and China stimulus, impacting Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta valuations. Sustainability above US$3,000/t...

2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...