Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 196 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 81.4% as of Aug 28th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, energy, real estate and offset by utilities, financials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Gwmotor, China Mobile, Remegen, Fuyao Glass, Minsheng Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 196 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 81.4% as of Aug 28th.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, energy, real estate and offset by utilities, financials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Gwmotor, China Mobile, Remegen, Fuyao Glass, Minsheng Bank.


A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 28th): Gwmotor, China Mobile, Remegen, Fuyao Glass, Minsheng Bank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) released a full set of construction machinery sales data for Feb 2024.</li><li>Combining the sales figures in 2M24 (to remove the Lunar New Year effect), most of the machines (except forklifts) reported YoY declines.</li><li>Tower cranes/excavators reported a 49%/22% YoY decline in sales volume. Therefore, we are still cautious on SANY Heavy (600031 CH, HOLD) due to its high exposure to excavators and slowing exports. We also maintain our conservative view on Zoomlion (1157 HK/000157 CH, HOLD), as weak property-related machinery demand in China may offset the strong growth in exports. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) released a full set of construction machinery sales data for Feb 2024.Combining the sales figures in 2M24 (to remove the Lunar New Year effect), most of the machines (except forklifts) reported YoY declines.Tower cranes/excavators reported a 49%/22% YoY decline in sales volume. Therefore, we are still cautious on SANY Heavy (600031 CH, HOLD) due to its high exposure to excavators and slowing exports. We also maintain our conservative view on Zoomlion (1157 HK/000157 CH, HOLD), as weak property-related machinery demand in China may offset the strong growth in exports. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capital Goods - 2M24: Solid Growth of Forklifts

<ul><li>For Chinese machinery manufacturers, penetration overseas remains a longterm driver.</li><li>That said, with growth trend reversing since mid-2023 after 2-3 years of extraordinary growth, the way to overseas expansion will likely be bumpy in 2024E, especially when the overseas competitors are recovering from the supply chain bottleneck.</li><li>Geographically, we expect strong demand to continue in the US and the Middle East, but weakness in Europe and China. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

For Chinese machinery manufacturers, penetration overseas remains a longterm driver.That said, with growth trend reversing since mid-2023 after 2-3 years of extraordinary growth, the way to overseas expansion will likely be bumpy in 2024E, especially when the overseas competitors are recovering from the supply chain bottleneck.Geographically, we expect strong demand to continue in the US and the Middle East, but weakness in Europe and China. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Construction Machinery / HDT – 2024 Outlook

<ul><li>What is new? On 23 Nov, SANY AWP (三一高空机械) signed an agreement with the municipal government of Huzhou, Zhejiang (source).</li><li>According to the agreement, SANY AWP will spend &gt;RMB10bn to build a production base for aerial work platform (AWP) and research centre in Wuxing District, Huzhou.</li><li>Upon the completion of the construction, the annual capacity of AWP is expected to reach 150k units, covering various types of boom lift, scissors lift and large-size intelligent AWP models.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

What is new? On 23 Nov, SANY AWP (三一高空机械) signed an agreement with the municipal government of Huzhou, Zhejiang (source).According to the agreement, SANY AWP will spend &gt;RMB10bn to build a production base for aerial work platform (AWP) and research centre in Wuxing District, Huzhou.Upon the completion of the construction, the annual capacity of AWP is expected to reach 150k units, covering various types of boom lift, scissors lift and large-size intelligent AWP models.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Huge AWP Expansion Plan by SANY Points to Deterioration of Competitive Landscape

<ul><li>What is new? The European Commission announced yesterday (13 Nov) that it will initiate an anti-dumping proceeding concerning imports of mobile access equipment (MAE, or AWP) from China.</li><li>While this looks negative to the Chinese AWP manufacturers at first glance, we think the estimated investigation time of 13-14 months will provide the Chinese manufacturers with time to take measures to mitigate the potential impact.</li><li>For instance, they can localize their AWP production overseas to avoid the potential duties. Besides, given that different tariffs may be applied, manufacturers with more experience in dealing with the investigation will have the chance to fight for lower tariffs.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

What is new? The European Commission announced yesterday (13 Nov) that it will initiate an anti-dumping proceeding concerning imports of mobile access equipment (MAE, or AWP) from China.While this looks negative to the Chinese AWP manufacturers at first glance, we think the estimated investigation time of 13-14 months will provide the Chinese manufacturers with time to take measures to mitigate the potential impact.For instance, they can localize their AWP production overseas to avoid the potential duties. Besides, given that different tariffs may be applied, manufacturers with more experience in dealing with the investigation will have the chance to fight for lower tariffs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China

Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd.manufactures and markets construction machinery.  The Company's products include concrete machinery, cranes, road machinery, drilling equipment, and other heavy construction equipment.  Zoomlion also produces environmental machinery and satellite navigation products.

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Zoomlion Heavy Industry S A (000157 CH)

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 28th): Gwmotor, China Mobile, Remegen, Fuyao Glass, Minsheng Bank

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Gwmotor, China Mobile, Remegen, Fuyao Glass, Minsheng Bank.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Capital Goods - 2M24: Solid Growth of Forklifts

Combining the sales figures in 2M24 (to remove the Lunar New Year effect), most of the machines (except forklifts) reported YoY declines.

CMB International

China Construction Machinery / HDT – 2024 Outlook

That said, with growth trend reversing since mid-2023 after 2-3 years of extraordinary growth, the way to overseas expansion will likely be bumpy...

CMB International

Huge AWP Expansion Plan by SANY Points to Deterioration of Competitive Landscape

What is new? On 23 Nov, SANY AWP (三一高空机械) signed an agreement with the municipal government of Huzhou, Zhejiang (source).

CMB International

China Construction Machinery

The European Commission announced yesterday (13 Nov) that it will initiate an anti-dumping proceeding concerning imports of mobile access equipment...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)