China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The pricing trend is expected to experience higher sequential decline 1) parcel pricing is at a high point; 2) alleviated cost pressure; 3) delivery companies try to capture parcel volume. </li>
<li>The collaboration with PDD’s Temu could provide J&amp;T a source of international order volume. For its potential IPO, J&amp;T’s overseas operation gives more room of imagination than its domestic business.</li>
<li>We downgrade SFH to SELL with TP of RMB48 due to Fengwang’s unpromising outlook .Our top pick of the Logistics sector remains ZTO. We are a buyer to JD logistics.</li>
</ul>


The pricing trend is expected to experience higher sequential decline 1) parcel pricing is at a high point; 2) alleviated cost pressure; 3) delivery companies try to capture parcel volume. 
The collaboration with PDD’s Temu could provide J&amp;T a source of international order volume. For its potential IPO, J&amp;T’s overseas operation gives more room of imagination than its domestic business.
We downgrade SFH to SELL with TP of RMB48 due to Fengwang’s unpromising outlook .Our top pick of the Logistics sector remains ZTO. We are a buyer to JD logistics.


China Logistics Sector Update & Downgrade S.F. Holding (2352.CH) To SELL: Pricing Pressure in 1H

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Based on our tracking, ZTO’s parcel volume in C4Q22 increased 4.5% YoY and 4.1% QoQ,and its market share reached 21.8%, up 1.6ppt YoY and down (0.4ppt) QoQ due to seasonality. </li>
<li>ZTO benefits from the recovery of eCommerce and industry volume. It is highly competitive both in pricing and in service quality, which fend off peers under escalating competition into 2023.</li>
<li>Maintain BUY and raise TP to US$35.0 due to industry rebound and ZTO’s competitive edges in service and pricing. Our TP implies 23x P/2023E.</li>
</ul>


Based on our tracking, ZTO’s parcel volume in C4Q22 increased 4.5% YoY and 4.1% QoQ,and its market share reached 21.8%, up 1.6ppt YoY and down (0.4ppt) QoQ due to seasonality. 
ZTO benefits from the recovery of eCommerce and industry volume. It is highly competitive both in pricing and in service quality, which fend off peers under escalating competition into 2023.
Maintain BUY and raise TP to US$35.0 due to industry rebound and ZTO’s competitive edges in service and pricing. Our TP implies 23x P/2023E.


ZTO Express(ZTO.US) 4Q22 Preview: Maintain Leadership and Benefit from Industry Rebound

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul>
<li>China’s major express couriers will charge more for their services over the Lunar New Year period</li>
<li>
<p>Express couriers, which mainly serve e-commerce sellers, typically see a lower volume of packages over the Lunar New Year when those businesses shut down. </p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Consumers generally buy their new years goods around a month before the festival, when such firms plan for a rush.</p>
</li>
</ul>


China’s major express couriers will charge more for their services over the Lunar New Year period

Express couriers, which mainly serve e-commerce sellers, typically see a lower volume of packages over the Lunar New Year when those businesses shut down. 


Consumers generally buy their new years goods around a month before the festival, when such firms plan for a rush.



China Couriers Hike Lunar New Year Prices as Delivery Riders Head Home

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today PCAOB announced that they had secured complete access to inspect and investigate Chinese Firms for the first time in history.</li>
<li>This was on back of the Aug 2022 agreement between PCAOB, CSRC and MOF, which was followed up with a Hong Kong visit by PCAOB officials over Sep-Nov 2022.</li>
<li>We wrote about this on 14th Dec 2022 and expected the results to be out on Friday (16th Dec), they have come out a day earlier than we expected.</li>
</ul>


Today PCAOB announced that they had secured complete access to inspect and investigate Chinese Firms for the first time in history.
This was on back of the Aug 2022 agreement between PCAOB, CSRC and MOF, which was followed up with a Hong Kong visit by PCAOB officials over Sep-Nov 2022.
We wrote about this on 14th Dec 2022 and expected the results to be out on Friday (16th Dec), they have come out a day earlier than we expected.


China ADRs Delisting - Christmas Came a Day Earlier than We Expected - No Delisting Risk for Now

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman Inc (2057 HK)</a>'s 63.1% surge in 3Q22 adjusted net profit demonstrated its ability to thrive even amid the challenging operating environment.  </li>
<li>It is positive on FY23 outlook and believes industry volume can return to double-digit growth. ZTO is confident of market share gain, better cost management and stable pricing. </li>
<li>We think its premium valuations are highly justified by strong cash generating ability. The increase of US$500m and lengthening of one year in share repurchase are very welcomed.</li>
</ul>



ZTO Express Cayman Inc (2057 HK)'s 63.1% surge in 3Q22 adjusted net profit demonstrated its ability to thrive even amid the challenging operating environment.  
It is positive on FY23 outlook and believes industry volume can return to double-digit growth. ZTO is confident of market share gain, better cost management and stable pricing. 
We think its premium valuations are highly justified by strong cash generating ability. The increase of US$500m and lengthening of one year in share repurchase are very welcomed.


ZTO Express (2057 HK/​​ZTO US): Solid Upward Momentum Stays Intact

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

China Logistics Sector Update & Downgrade S.F. Holding (2352.CH) To SELL: Pricing Pressure in 1H

We downgrade S.F. Holding to SELL due to Fengwang’s unpromising outlook under competitive pricing environment. Our top pick of the Logistics sector...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZTO Express(ZTO.US) 4Q22 Preview: Maintain Leadership and Benefit from Industry Rebound

Based on our tracking, ZTO’s parcel volume in C4Q22 increased 4.5% YoY and 4.1% QoQ, and its market share reached 21.8%, up 1.6ppt YoY and down...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Couriers Hike Lunar New Year Prices as Delivery Riders Head Home

China’s major express couriers will charge more for their services over the Lunar New Year period. Express couriers, which mainly serve e-commerce...

Caixin Global

China ADRs Delisting - Christmas Came a Day Earlier than We Expected - No Delisting Risk for Now

Today PCAOB announced that they had secured complete access to inspect and investigate Chinese Firms for the first time in history. This removes...

Sumeet Singh

ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Solid Upward Momentum Stays Intact

ZTO's strong 3Q22 net profit growth and increased buyback program are both positive developments. It is also confident on the FY23 outlook as...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Logistics Sector Update & Downgrade S.F. Holding (2352.CH) To SELL: Pricing Pressure in 1H

We downgrade S.F. Holding to SELL due to Fengwang’s unpromising outlook under competitive pricing environment. Our top pick of the Logistics sector...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZTO Express(ZTO.US) 4Q22 Preview: Maintain Leadership and Benefit from Industry Rebound

Based on our tracking, ZTO’s parcel volume in C4Q22 increased 4.5% YoY and 4.1% QoQ, and its market share reached 21.8%, up 1.6ppt YoY and down...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Couriers Hike Lunar New Year Prices as Delivery Riders Head Home

China’s major express couriers will charge more for their services over the Lunar New Year period. Express couriers, which mainly serve e-commerce...

Caixin Global

China ADRs Delisting - Christmas Came a Day Earlier than We Expected - No Delisting Risk for Now

Today PCAOB announced that they had secured complete access to inspect and investigate Chinese Firms for the first time in history. This removes...

Sumeet Singh

ZTO Express (2057 HK/​​ZTO US): Solid Upward Momentum Stays Intact

ZTO's strong 3Q22 net profit growth and increased buyback program are both positive developments. It is also confident on the FY23 outlook as...

Osbert Tang, CFA

ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Solid Upward Momentum Stays Intact