Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ex-China e-commerce conducted by Chinese e-commerce platform will rise from 2022 GMV of US$ 61bn to US$ 297bn in 2025, with Pinduoduo, Alibaba, SHEIN and TikTok leading the charge. </li>
<li>These companies, however, are incubating their own last mile partners. The political uncertainty of Chinese e-commerce overseas is hindering development of the industry;</li>
<li>We see J&amp;T as the main beneficiary of Chinese e-commerce overseas, which must eventually undergo an infrastructure upgrade...</li>
</ul>


Ex-China e-commerce conducted by Chinese e-commerce platform will rise from 2022 GMV of US$ 61bn to US$ 297bn in 2025, with Pinduoduo, Alibaba, SHEIN and TikTok leading the charge. 
These companies, however, are incubating their own last mile partners. The political uncertainty of Chinese e-commerce overseas is hindering development of the industry;
We see J&amp;T as the main beneficiary of Chinese e-commerce overseas, which must eventually undergo an infrastructure upgrade...


[Blue Lotus Logistics Sector Update]: Overseas E-Commerce Brews New Logistics Players

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For segments we cover -- express, containers, tourism -- 2023 was challenging</li>
<li>In this note we highlight each segment's key trends and themes from 2023</li>
<li>We conclude with a look at 2023 share performance and a peak into 2024</li>
</ul>


For segments we cover -- express, containers, tourism -- 2023 was challenging
In this note we highlight each segment's key trends and themes from 2023
We conclude with a look at 2023 share performance and a peak into 2024


Key 2023 Trends & Themes in Asian Express, Containers, Tourism | Plus A Peak Into 2024

<ul>
<li>In November, domestic parcel volume growth accelerated vs recent months</li>
<li>International remains very strong; STO keeps taking share from Yunda</li>
<li>Avoid domestic 'ground' segment, seek international growth in SF, CaiNiao</li>
</ul>


In November, domestic parcel volume growth accelerated vs recent months
International remains very strong; STO keeps taking share from Yunda
Avoid domestic 'ground' segment, seek international growth in SF, CaiNiao


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Prices Keep Sliding, Volume Share Keeps Shifting (December 2023)

<ul>
<li>Recently, Yunda Holding has lost volume share to rival STO Express </li>
<li>One reason could be Alibaba's transfer of its 25% stake in STO to CaiNiao</li>
<li>For Yunda, this dynamic adds to intense near-term pressure on margins</li>
</ul>


Recently, Yunda Holding has lost volume share to rival STO Express 
One reason could be Alibaba's transfer of its 25% stake in STO to CaiNiao
For Yunda, this dynamic adds to intense near-term pressure on margins


Beyond ASP Declines, Additional Dynamic Undermines Yunda | We Explain Roles of STO, BABA, CaiNiao

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight we review important e-comm logistics transactions from 2023</li>
<li>We also provide a preview of potential e-comm logistics deals in 2024</li>
<li>Interested readers can also find links to HKEX filings and our earlier insights</li>
</ul>


In this insight we review important e-comm logistics transactions from 2023
We also provide a preview of potential e-comm logistics deals in 2024
Interested readers can also find links to HKEX filings and our earlier insights


Asian E-Comm Logistics | Review of 2023 ECM and M&A Activity | Preview of 2024 Deals

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

[Blue Lotus Logistics Sector Update]: Overseas E-Commerce Brews New Logistics Players

Chinese e-commerce giants like Alibaba and Pinduoduo are expected to see a significant rise in overseas e-commerce, but political uncertainty is...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Key 2023 Trends & Themes in Asian Express, Containers, Tourism | Plus A Peak Into 2024

In this insight we look at the important trends and themes we've covered this year in the express, containers, and tourism sectors. We also...

Tracking Traffic

Beyond ASP Declines, Additional Dynamic Undermines Yunda | We Explain Roles of STO, BABA, CaiNiao

A loss of volume share to rival STO is adding to existing margin pressure at Yunda related to declining prices. This new dynamic could be related...

Tracking Traffic

Asian E-Comm Logistics | Review of 2023 ECM and M&A Activity | Preview of 2024 Deals

In this insight readers can find a review of ECM and M&A activity in the Asian E-comm logistics space in 2023, plus a preview of potential...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Logistics Sector Update]: Overseas E-Commerce Brews New Logistics Players

​Chinese e-commerce giants like Alibaba and Pinduoduo are expected to see a significant rise in overseas e-commerce, but political uncertainty is...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Key 2023 Trends & Themes in Asian Express, Containers, Tourism | Plus A Peak Into 2024

In this insight we look at the important trends and themes we've covered this year in the express, containers, and tourism sectors. We also...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Prices Keep Sliding, Volume Share Keeps Shifting (December 2023)

Although domestic parcel volume has strengthened in recent months, pricing continues to weaken, and China's 'sort & transport' express companies...

Tracking Traffic

Beyond ASP Declines, Additional Dynamic Undermines Yunda | We Explain Roles of STO, BABA, CaiNiao

A loss of volume share to rival STO is adding to existing margin pressure at Yunda related to declining prices. This new dynamic could be related...

Tracking Traffic

Asian E-Comm Logistics | Review of 2023 ECM and M&A Activity | Preview of 2024 Deals

In this insight readers can find a review of ECM and M&A activity in the Asian E-comm logistics space in 2023, plus a preview of potential...

Tracking Traffic

Chinese e-commerce giants like Alibaba and Pinduoduo are expected to see a significant rise in overseas e-commerce, but political uncertainty is...