Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For the first time in a while, ZTO reported a solid increase in Adj EBITDA in Q2 (+20%)</li>
<li>But the company also lowered parcel volume guidance range for FY26, to a range of 6-10%</li>
<li>After solid 9.6% growth in H126, new volume guidance implies H226 growth could fall to 0%</li>
</ul>


For the first time in a while, ZTO reported a solid increase in Adj EBITDA in Q2 (+20%)
But the company also lowered parcel volume guidance range for FY26, to a range of 6-10%
After solid 9.6% growth in H126, new volume guidance implies H226 growth could fall to 0%


ZTO Express Q226: Adj EBITDA Increased on Higher ASP, but FY26 Guidance Cut Spooked Investors

<ul>
<li>Full Truck Alliance showed strong improvement in core margin in Q226 due to mix change</li>
<li>We believe the company's rate of top-line growth could begin to accelerate by end of H226</li>
<li>At ~12x FY26 EPS and featuring a 4% dividend yield, shares appear attractive below US$9</li>
</ul>


Full Truck Alliance showed strong improvement in core margin in Q226 due to mix change
We believe the company's rate of top-line growth could begin to accelerate by end of H226
At ~12x FY26 EPS and featuring a 4% dividend yield, shares appear attractive below US$9


Full Truck Alliance Q226 Result: Sharp Improvement in Core Margin, Shares Attractive Below US$9

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China consumption shows rebounding demand following appreciation in asset values and home appliance subsidies. A record number of parcels were delivered last week, while home appliance sales grew rapidly;</li>
<li>We’ve raised 4Q estimates for online shopping growth given the recent demand trends which we expect to sustain through the quarter, so long as stimulus remains forthcoming;</li>
<li>JD and BABA remain our top ecommerce picks given their exposure to recent home appliance subsidies, as well as benefiting from a longer-term improvement in consumer sentiment.</li>
</ul>


China consumption shows rebounding demand following appreciation in asset values and home appliance subsidies. A record number of parcels were delivered last week, while home appliance sales grew rapidly;
We’ve raised 4Q estimates for online shopping growth given the recent demand trends which we expect to sustain through the quarter, so long as stimulus remains forthcoming;
JD and BABA remain our top ecommerce picks given their exposure to recent home appliance subsidies, as well as benefiting from a longer-term improvement in consumer sentiment.


Old E-Commerce Names Are The Biggest Winners of New Stimulus

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>New regulations affecting SHEIN and other retailers are becoming visible on the horizon</li>
<li>We believe coming changes will hit SHEIN and its peers harder than traditional retailers</li>
<li>We look at California's SB 707 law as an illustrative example of new challenges facing SHEIN</li>
</ul>


New regulations affecting SHEIN and other retailers are becoming visible on the horizon
We believe coming changes will hit SHEIN and its peers harder than traditional retailers
We look at California's SB 707 law as an illustrative example of new challenges facing SHEIN


SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong | Pressures from New Rules To Grow, Will Hit Low-Price Platforms Hardest

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

<ul>
<li>The transaction reportedly values Chinese "robovan" maker ZelosTech at around US$2 bn</li>
<li>We offer background on ZelosTech: history, funding, products, key operating partners</li>
<li>'So what?' CaiNiao gave up its AV business, think "robovans" first, PONY's status dented</li>
</ul>


The transaction reportedly values Chinese "robovan" maker ZelosTech at around US$2 bn
We offer background on ZelosTech: history, funding, products, key operating partners
'So what?' CaiNiao gave up its AV business, think "robovans" first, PONY's status dented


Alibaba's CaiNiao Takes Stake in Robovan Maker ZelosTech | Who Is ZelosTech, Why Does Deal Matter?

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

ZTO Express Q226: Adj EBITDA Increased on Higher ASP, but FY26 Guidance Cut Spooked Investors

On Tuesday August 18 ZTO reported better Q226 results, but management also used the opportunity to lower FY26 parcel volume guidance, spooking...

Tracking Traffic

Full Truck Alliance Q226 Result: Sharp Improvement in Core Margin, Shares Attractive Below US$9

Here in Q326 Full Truck Alliance is lapping the last set of challenging Y/Y revenue comps; it should return to improved top-line growth in Q426 and...

Tracking Traffic

Old E-Commerce Names Are The Biggest Winners of New Stimulus

China's consumption seeing increased demand for home appliances and online shopping, leading to record parcel deliveries. JD and BABA are top...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong | Pressures from New Rules To Grow, Will Hit Low-Price Platforms Hardest

In its first day of trading on September 1, SHEIN's shares closed down 0.1% in Hong Kong after initially falling close to 10%. We're re-surfacing a...

Tracking Traffic

Alibaba's CaiNiao Takes Stake in Robovan Maker ZelosTech | Who Is ZelosTech, Why Does Deal Matter?

Last week came news that Alibaba's logistics arm, CaiNiao, had taken a minority stake in autonomous "robovan" maker ZelosTech. In this insight we...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ZTO Express Q226: Adj EBITDA Increased on Higher ASP, but FY26 Guidance Cut Spooked Investors

On Tuesday August 18 ZTO reported better Q226 results, but management also used the opportunity to lower FY26 parcel volume guidance, spooking...

Tracking Traffic

Full Truck Alliance Q226 Result: Sharp Improvement in Core Margin, Shares Attractive Below US$9

Here in Q326 Full Truck Alliance is lapping the last set of challenging Y/Y revenue comps; it should return to improved top-line growth in Q426 and...

Tracking Traffic

Old E-Commerce Names Are The Biggest Winners of New Stimulus

​China's consumption seeing increased demand for home appliances and online shopping, leading to record parcel deliveries. JD and BABA are top...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong | Pressures from New Rules To Grow, Will Hit Low-Price Platforms Hardest

In its first day of trading on September 1, SHEIN's shares closed down 0.1% in Hong Kong after initially falling close to 10%. We're re-surfacing a...

Tracking Traffic

Alibaba's CaiNiao Takes Stake in Robovan Maker ZelosTech | Who Is ZelosTech, Why Does Deal Matter?

Last week came news that Alibaba's logistics arm, CaiNiao, had taken a minority stake in autonomous "robovan" maker ZelosTech. In this insight we...

Tracking Traffic

China's consumption seeing increased demand for home appliances and online shopping, leading to record parcel deliveries. JD and BABA are top...