Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

India’s non-banking finance company (NBFC), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15425" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15425:1">Muthoot Finance (MUTH IN; "MTF")</a>, lends against gold, arguably the best collateral of all. Its gold jewelry kept as security is up from 147 tons to 166 tons, from December 2016 to December 2018. This may be one reason that the company’s bad loans are low, not only in an India context, but in Asia. Its stage three loans surged after demonetization peaking in December 2017 at INR21.5bn. Since then, figures have fallen sharply, to INR6.4bn as at December 2018. As a percentage of loans, stage three loans declined from 7.6% to 2.0% over this period. With credit costs and write-offs down 96% during 9M19 YoY, credit metrics appear healthy.

India’s non-banking finance company (NBFC), Muthoot Finance (MUTH IN; "MTF"), lends against gold, arguably the best collateral of all. Its gold jewelry kept as security is up from 147 tons to 166 tons, from December 2016 to December 2018. This may be one reason that the company’s bad loans are low, not only in an India context, but in Asia. Its stage three loans surged after demonetization peaking in December 2017 at INR21.5bn. Since then, figures have fallen sharply, to INR6.4bn as at December 2018. As a percentage of loans, stage three loans declined from 7.6% to 2.0% over this period. With credit costs and write-offs down 96% during 9M19 YoY, credit metrics appear healthy.

Muthoot Finance – Top ROA Lender, with 116 Tons of Gold!

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Jana Small Finance Bank / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jana-small-finance-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40026:1" rel="noopener">Jana Small Finance Bank (3667144Z IN)</a> is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>Jana Small Finance Bank (JSFB) is the fourth largest small finance bank in India in terms of AUM and deposit size as of FY23 (Year ended 31st Mar 2023).</li>
<li>JSFB has grown its number of banking outlets and amount of deposits fast, which allowed the firm to grow its gross advances by 1.5x over the track record period. </li>
</ul>



Jana Small Finance Bank (3667144Z IN) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming India IPO.
Jana Small Finance Bank (JSFB) is the fourth largest small finance bank in India in terms of AUM and deposit size as of FY23 (Year ended 31st Mar 2023).
JSFB has grown its number of banking outlets and amount of deposits fast, which allowed the firm to grow its gross advances by 1.5x over the track record period. 


Jana Small Finance Bank Pre-IPO - Has Grown Decently Fast but Keep an Eye on Its CRAR

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Dongzheng Automotive Finance / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-dongzheng-automotive-finance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27984:1" rel="noopener">Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK)</a>'s composite document is out with the offer open from 15 September to 6 October. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saic-motor-corp-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20833:1" rel="noopener">SAIC Motor (600104 CH)</a>, which acquired a 71.04% stake, has launched an unconditional MGO at HK$1.2430 per H Share. SAIC intends to maintain Dongzheng’s listing status.</li>
<li>At the last close and the 17 October payment, the gross and annualised spread to the MGO price is 1.1% and 13.3%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK)'s composite document is out with the offer open from 15 September to 6 October. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable.

SAIC Motor (600104 CH), which acquired a 71.04% stake, has launched an unconditional MGO at HK$1.2430 per H Share. SAIC intends to maintain Dongzheng’s listing status.
At the last close and the 17 October payment, the gross and annualised spread to the MGO price is 1.1% and 13.3%, respectively.


Dongzheng’s Unconditional MGO at HK$1.2430 Opens

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We often look at fringe finance companies as a window on mainstream banks. China Rongzhong Financial Holdings (CRZFH) provides financial leasing services in China, focusing on SME’s in the province of Hubei. The company announced late last week that its FY18 (ending March 2018) will see an even higher loss of at least HKD340 million compared with its HKD277 million loss in FY17. The causes for this: less revenue, higher provisions. To us, this is ultimately the way forward for China’s banks…

We often look at fringe finance companies as a window on mainstream banks. China Rongzhong Financial Holdings (CRZFH) provides financial leasing services in China, focusing on SME’s in the province of Hubei. The company announced late last week that its FY18 (ending March 2018) will see an even higher loss of at least HKD340 million compared with its HKD277 million loss in FY17. The causes for this: less revenue, higher provisions. To us, this is ultimately the way forward for China’s banks…

China Banks – Periphery Lender Reveals Worsening Financials

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its 'Sons and Daughters Program'. The silence since then from Chinese anti-corruption officials has been deafening.

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its 'Sons and Daughters Program'. The silence since then from Chinese anti-corruption officials has been deafening.

Chinese Officials Turn a Blind Eye to Corruption

China

Zuoli Kechuang Micro-Finance Company Limited focuses on providing credit-based financing solutions to Deqing's fast-growing SME and microenterprise sector.

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Zuoli Kechuang Micro Finance (6866 HK)

Muthoot Finance – Top ROA Lender, with 116 Tons of Gold!

Muthoot Finance lends based on gold collateral, with gold prices so much higher now than in the past, there is far less likelihood of defaults. The...

Daniel Tabbush

Jana Small Finance Bank Pre-IPO - Has Grown Decently Fast but Keep an Eye on Its CRAR

Jana Small Finance Bank (3667144Z IN) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. JSFB has grown its number of banking outlets...

Ethan Aw

Dongzheng’s Unconditional MGO at HK$1.2430 Opens

The unconditional MGO is open from 15 September to 6 October. At the last close and the 17 October payment, the annualised spread to the MGO price...

Arun George

China Banks – Periphery Lender Reveals Worsening Financials

We often look at fringe finance companies as a window on mainstream banks. China Rongzhong Financial Holdings (CRZFH) provides financial leasing...

Daniel Tabbush

Chinese Officials Turn a Blind Eye to Corruption

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its...

Bixmoor

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