Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks</li>
<li>We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.</li>
<li>Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.</li>
<li>This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.
Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.
This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.


Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact. Actionable Themes today include Financials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary (European Luxury Retailers)</li>
<li>We view this pullback as a buying opportunity and we are watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US; this is an important resistance-turned-support level dating back to July 2024.</li>
<li>Europe and Japan are on the cusp of major breakouts above critical resistance levels of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact. Actionable Themes today include Financials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary (European Luxury Retailers)
We view this pullback as a buying opportunity and we are watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US; this is an important resistance-turned-support level dating back to July 2024.
Europe and Japan are on the cusp of major breakouts above critical resistance levels of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX


Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

Royal Bank Of Canada / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX is breaking out after several months of consolidation. Same with the MSCI ACWI index. We are upgrading our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish.</li>
<li>Breakouts could mean other countries are getting ready to break out, but the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remains our only country overweight</li>
<li>Moreover, major indexes in the next two largest global equity markets (Europe and Japan) remain below critical resistances of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX.</li>
</ul>


The SPX is breaking out after several months of consolidation. Same with the MSCI ACWI index. We are upgrading our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish.
Breakouts could mean other countries are getting ready to break out, but the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remains our only country overweight
Moreover, major indexes in the next two largest global equity markets (Europe and Japan) remain below critical resistances of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX.


S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading MSCI ACWI to Bullish; Buys in Services, Financials

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ETF flows in the Asian region continued their positive momentum during August with Southbound Connect positive again for the week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stella-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7610:1" rel="noopener">Stella International (1836 HK)</a> will increase its dividends and buybacks after positive earnings surprise. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a> saw a surge in new policies from mainlanders in HK.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holding-ltd-b751749a-8feb-4b4d-85a7-d99ac0308fe7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40067:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holding (6623 HK)</a> reported an earnings miss with declining loan volume. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8427:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)</a> reported a decline of 57% in earnings which was below analysts' estimates.
</li>
</ul>


ETF flows in the Asian region continued their positive momentum during August with Southbound Connect positive again for the week.

Stella International (1836 HK) will increase its dividends and buybacks after positive earnings surprise. AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) saw a surge in new policies from mainlanders in HK.


Lufax Holding (6623 HK) reported an earnings miss with declining loan volume. Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) reported a decline of 57% in earnings which was below analysts' estimates.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 26)

Switzerland

Zurich Insurance Group AG provides insurance-based financial services. The Company offers general and life insurance products and services for individuals, small businesses, commercial enterprises, mid-sized and large corporations, and multinational companies.

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Zurich Insurance Group Ag (ZURN VX)

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany $DAX $EWG and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI above $116. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan $HEDJ $DXJ; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts. $ACWI above $116. Buys in Financials,...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading MSCI ACWI to Bullish; Buys in Services, Financials

$SPX and MSCI $ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading Outlook on ACWI and SPX to Bullish as of last Fridays close above 5783; Buys in Services, Financials;...

Vermilion Research

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 26)

ETF flows were again led by China. Stella International reported a surge in earnings and AIA announced new policy growth exceeded expectations....

David Mudd

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