Equity Bottom-Up

In this briefing:

1. Golden Agri: El Nino Back on the Front Burner; Bullish Catalyst for GAR
2. SPCG: Laying Foundations for Next Stage of Growth
3. S: Outshines Thai Property Peers on High Recurring Profit
4. Mercari (4385) A Great Business but over Priced
5. Tencent Music: A Case of Failing to Live up to Hyped Expectations

1. Golden Agri: El Nino Back on the Front Burner; Bullish Catalyst for GAR

INVESTMENT VIEW:
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology raised its ENSO Outlook back to El Nino ALERT from WATCH, which is linked to regional droughts, lower yields and higher prices for agriculture across South East Asia.  As such, we believe the recent correction in Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices is over and recommend buying back into shares of key producers with leverage to higher CPO prices, like Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) (GAR). 

2. SPCG: Laying Foundations for Next Stage of Growth

We initiate coverage of SPCG with a BUY rating and a 2019E target price of Bt22.80, derived from a discounted cash flow valuation (WACC 7.0% and terminal growth of 1.0%). This is equivalent to 8.4x PE’19E.

The story:

• Promising industry outlook
• Striding toward overseas opportunities
• Expiring adder should have been priced in already
• Expected stable earnings in 2019-21E

Risks:   Single source supplier

                Forex fluctuation

                Uncertainty about sunlight

3. S: Outshines Thai Property Peers on High Recurring Profit

We initiate coverage of S with a BUY rating, based on a target price of Bt4.2 derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology and implying 16.5xPE’19E, a 23% discount to the average of its peers in the Thai real estate sector.

The story:

• Asset value to drive long-term sustainable growth
• 19 projects under development worth a combined Bt36bn to drive sales over the next three years
• REITs will be a key catalyst to boost recurring income
• Higher revenue contribution from hotel business

Risks:

• Tightened credit approval
• Raw material costs & F/X fluctuation

Background: In 2014, Santi Bhirombhakdi** and his property arm, Singha Property Management, acquired a major stake in RASA, a listed property company on the SET, and changed its name to “Singha Estate Public Company Limited”,  or “S”. This new major shareholder quickly unveiled plans to transform S into a holding company. During 2015-17, the company made several acquisitions including (1) a 51.56% stake in NVD, a low-rise property developer that operates under the “Nirvana” brand with a current market value of Bt2.7bn; (2) Suntowers, an office complex worth Bt4.5bn; and (3) a mixed-use commercial complex owned by the major holder’s family business worth over Bt6bn. It also set up a joint venture with a partner to invest in and operate 26 hotels in the UK worth Bt8.6bn.

Revenue breakdown:

The residential property segment contributed 41% of S’s 2018 total revenue. This segment includes the development and sale of high-rise and-low rise projects such as single detached houses, townhomes, home offices, and condominiums.

The commercial property segment contributed 36% of total revenue. This business includes space for rent, common-service charges for utilities, security systems, and other service fees. The company owns two commercial property projects — The Lighthouse (a community mall) and Suntowers (an office complex).

S owns 37 hotels with a combined 4,271 rooms comprising (1) two hotels with 297 rooms in Thailand, namely Santiburi Beach Resort & Spa and Phi Phi Island Village Beach Resort; (2) 22 hotels in England and 7 in Scotland (total of 3,115 rooms) under a 50:50 JV with FICO Group; and (3) 6 Outrigger-branded hotels with 859 rooms. This segment accounts for 18% of sales.

The company also provides construction materials such as precast concrete and aluminum, as well as hotel management services. These two segments contribute 3% and 2% respectively.

4. Mercari (4385) A Great Business but over Priced

Established in 2013, this has been a huge success story in Japan. The company operates the largest C to C mobile app that allows customers to trade in second hand goods with each other. Growth has been phenomenal. In the year to 6/15, Mercari had revenue of Y4.2bn, three years later (6/18) this had risen to Y35.7bn. This growth carries on, first half revenue this year to December 2018 rose 45% to Y23.7bn. It has begun an operation in the US, currently loss making, and has just introduced “Merpay”, a prepaid card incorporated into one’s mobile phone along the lines of Suica that allows users to purchase goods and pay bills. Funds can be deposited following a sale on Mercari’s site or transferred from a bank. Revenue will probably continue to grow at a rapid pace and whilst there are some that will jump on board, it is impossible to come up with any sensible valuation that can really justify a purchase here. There is no p.e.r. and the company will be loss making for the next couple of years. Its market cap of Y440bn means that it is trading on perhaps 6x 6/20 sales. On top of this, there are risks with regards to the viability of its US operation. Management appear to be aware to this and have set certain time limits for a turn around. There are many BUYS out on this name, thematically it has much going for it, but the valuation leaves us cold.

5. Tencent Music: A Case of Failing to Live up to Hyped Expectations

• One word to describe Tencent Music Entertainment’s (TME US) first conference call post IPO is uninspiring.
• Management does not provide concrete 2019/1Q19 guidance, but hints margin pressures persist largely due to investments in music contents.
• We expect that consensus still has to revise down TME’s 2019-20E net profits forecast by 17-26%.
• On our earnings forecast, TME unattractively trades at 46.3x/37x 2019-20E PE, a whopping 48-52% premium to peers average.

In this briefing:

1. Komatsu, HCM, CAT: The Stock Punishment Does Not Match the Outlook Deterioration Crime

1. Komatsu, HCM, CAT: The Stock Punishment Does Not Match the Outlook Deterioration Crime

We have been struck by the degree of underperformance of the construction machinery names despite strong earnings performance. While the cyclical nature of the names makes judging performance purely on earnings results (or even the outlook) hazardous, in this case we believe the market has been premature and excessive in its derating of these stocks which have sold off to similar levels as the WFE names such as Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)  and Robotics names such as Fanuc Corp (6954 JP).

While it is possible that Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP), Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP) and Caterpillar Inc (CAT US) have sold off partly due to their China exposure, it needs to be emphasised that 1) these companies are no longer heavily dependent on China and revenue exposure is 12% for HCM, 10% for CAT and 7% for Komatsu, and 2) while the Chinese market at  about 60k excavators is probably close to the top of its cycle, it is not a bubble like in 2010 when it 111k units and thus a collapse in demand is unlikely (though a decline is).

As the table below notes, earnings estimates for the construction machinery companies have only tapered marginally from their peaks, and while find the forecasts for continued growth into 2020 somewhat optimistic the resilience of mining demand means we are disinclined to dismiss them out of hand. On the other hand estimates for WFE and Robot names have dropped significantly, but despite this, share price performance is similar for all three categories of stocks. We discuss this stark discrepancy further below.

In this briefing:

1. Tencent (700 HK): In Fact Benefited from License Suspension

1. Tencent (700 HK): In Fact Benefited from License Suspension

• Tencent’s market share as measured by the number of active users increased during the the period license suspension.
• We believe that Tencent’s market share as measured by active users will bring increased market share as measured by revenues.
• We also believe that during the hard times small companies always die.

In this briefing:

1. Tencent (700 HK): In Fact Benefited from License Suspension
2. Chinese Telcos: Rising 5G Capex Risk Leads to Another Downgrade
3. XL Axiata Results Show a Strong Turnaround Underway in Indonesia

1. Tencent (700 HK): In Fact Benefited from License Suspension

• Tencent’s market share as measured by the number of active users increased during the the period license suspension.
• We believe that Tencent’s market share as measured by active users will bring increased market share as measured by revenues.
• We also believe that during the hard times small companies always die.

2. Chinese Telcos: Rising 5G Capex Risk Leads to Another Downgrade

We recently downgraded the Chinese telcos on rising concerns that the telcos will be required to do “national service” to support China’s technological leadership in 5G.  The closure of many overseas markets to Chinese equipment suppliers (esp Huawei, but also Zte Corp H (763 HK)) means the risk of a more aggressive 5G roll-out has increased.  Markets have started to take notice but the initial reaction has been positive on excitement over the 5G opportunity. Given the lack of a strong business case for 5G currently, we don think additional capex is a positive. We model what an extreme roll-out could look like and the impact on the telcos. Along with a weakening macro outlook, we have further downgraded target prices for all three operators and cut China Mobile (941 HK) and China Telecom (728 HK) to Reduce and China Unicom (762 HK) to Neutral.

3. XL Axiata Results Show a Strong Turnaround Underway in Indonesia

Xl Axiata’s  (EXCL IJ) 4Q18 results triggered a very strong rally last week that continues this week. The market has been very concerned about competitive pressures in Indonesia and extremely low data prices. We believe that Indonesia is now past the worst and there is evidence that data pricing is starting to rise modestly. That is delivering a powerful tail wind for Indonesian telcos in 2019, with XL Axiata likely to report several very strong quarters.

XL Axiata now reporting strong sequential revenue growth (% QoQ)

In this briefing:

1. SPCG: Laying Foundations for Next Stage of Growth
2. S: Outshines Thai Property Peers on High Recurring Profit
3. Mercari (4385) A Great Business but over Priced
4. Tencent Music: A Case of Failing to Live up to Hyped Expectations
5. Tencent Music (TME): Problems Come from Corporate Clients and In-House Contents, 35% Downside

1. SPCG: Laying Foundations for Next Stage of Growth

We initiate coverage of SPCG with a BUY rating and a 2019E target price of Bt22.80, derived from a discounted cash flow valuation (WACC 7.0% and terminal growth of 1.0%). This is equivalent to 8.4x PE’19E.

The story:

• Promising industry outlook
• Striding toward overseas opportunities
• Expiring adder should have been priced in already
• Expected stable earnings in 2019-21E

Risks:   Single source supplier

                Forex fluctuation

                Uncertainty about sunlight

2. S: Outshines Thai Property Peers on High Recurring Profit

We initiate coverage of S with a BUY rating, based on a target price of Bt4.2 derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology and implying 16.5xPE’19E, a 23% discount to the average of its peers in the Thai real estate sector.

The story:

• Asset value to drive long-term sustainable growth
• 19 projects under development worth a combined Bt36bn to drive sales over the next three years
• REITs will be a key catalyst to boost recurring income
• Higher revenue contribution from hotel business

Risks:

• Tightened credit approval
• Raw material costs & F/X fluctuation

Background: In 2014, Santi Bhirombhakdi** and his property arm, Singha Property Management, acquired a major stake in RASA, a listed property company on the SET, and changed its name to “Singha Estate Public Company Limited”,  or “S”. This new major shareholder quickly unveiled plans to transform S into a holding company. During 2015-17, the company made several acquisitions including (1) a 51.56% stake in NVD, a low-rise property developer that operates under the “Nirvana” brand with a current market value of Bt2.7bn; (2) Suntowers, an office complex worth Bt4.5bn; and (3) a mixed-use commercial complex owned by the major holder’s family business worth over Bt6bn. It also set up a joint venture with a partner to invest in and operate 26 hotels in the UK worth Bt8.6bn.

Revenue breakdown:

The residential property segment contributed 41% of S’s 2018 total revenue. This segment includes the development and sale of high-rise and-low rise projects such as single detached houses, townhomes, home offices, and condominiums.

The commercial property segment contributed 36% of total revenue. This business includes space for rent, common-service charges for utilities, security systems, and other service fees. The company owns two commercial property projects — The Lighthouse (a community mall) and Suntowers (an office complex).

S owns 37 hotels with a combined 4,271 rooms comprising (1) two hotels with 297 rooms in Thailand, namely Santiburi Beach Resort & Spa and Phi Phi Island Village Beach Resort; (2) 22 hotels in England and 7 in Scotland (total of 3,115 rooms) under a 50:50 JV with FICO Group; and (3) 6 Outrigger-branded hotels with 859 rooms. This segment accounts for 18% of sales.

The company also provides construction materials such as precast concrete and aluminum, as well as hotel management services. These two segments contribute 3% and 2% respectively.

3. Mercari (4385) A Great Business but over Priced

Established in 2013, this has been a huge success story in Japan. The company operates the largest C to C mobile app that allows customers to trade in second hand goods with each other. Growth has been phenomenal. In the year to 6/15, Mercari had revenue of Y4.2bn, three years later (6/18) this had risen to Y35.7bn. This growth carries on, first half revenue this year to December 2018 rose 45% to Y23.7bn. It has begun an operation in the US, currently loss making, and has just introduced “Merpay”, a prepaid card incorporated into one’s mobile phone along the lines of Suica that allows users to purchase goods and pay bills. Funds can be deposited following a sale on Mercari’s site or transferred from a bank. Revenue will probably continue to grow at a rapid pace and whilst there are some that will jump on board, it is impossible to come up with any sensible valuation that can really justify a purchase here. There is no p.e.r. and the company will be loss making for the next couple of years. Its market cap of Y440bn means that it is trading on perhaps 6x 6/20 sales. On top of this, there are risks with regards to the viability of its US operation. Management appear to be aware to this and have set certain time limits for a turn around. There are many BUYS out on this name, thematically it has much going for it, but the valuation leaves us cold.

4. Tencent Music: A Case of Failing to Live up to Hyped Expectations

• One word to describe Tencent Music Entertainment’s (TME US) first conference call post IPO is uninspiring.
• Management does not provide concrete 2019/1Q19 guidance, but hints margin pressures persist largely due to investments in music contents.
• We expect that consensus still has to revise down TME’s 2019-20E net profits forecast by 17-26%.
• On our earnings forecast, TME unattractively trades at 46.3x/37x 2019-20E PE, a whopping 48-52% premium to peers average.

5. Tencent Music (TME): Problems Come from Corporate Clients and In-House Contents, 35% Downside

• Stripping music subscription revenues, we find TME’s revenues from corporate clients are not stable.
• We believe in-house products will negatively impact margin in 2019.
• We believe the main business line, social entertainment, will grow strongly. However, we also believe the market is over optimistic about the margin.
• We believe the stock price has downside of 35%.

In this briefing:

1. Chinese Telcos: Rising 5G Capex Risk Leads to Another Downgrade
2. XL Axiata Results Show a Strong Turnaround Underway in Indonesia
3. Fortis Healthcare: OK Results and a Cost-Cutter CEO

1. Chinese Telcos: Rising 5G Capex Risk Leads to Another Downgrade

We recently downgraded the Chinese telcos on rising concerns that the telcos will be required to do “national service” to support China’s technological leadership in 5G.  The closure of many overseas markets to Chinese equipment suppliers (esp Huawei, but also Zte Corp H (763 HK)) means the risk of a more aggressive 5G roll-out has increased.  Markets have started to take notice but the initial reaction has been positive on excitement over the 5G opportunity. Given the lack of a strong business case for 5G currently, we don think additional capex is a positive. We model what an extreme roll-out could look like and the impact on the telcos. Along with a weakening macro outlook, we have further downgraded target prices for all three operators and cut China Mobile (941 HK) and China Telecom (728 HK) to Reduce and China Unicom (762 HK) to Neutral.

2. XL Axiata Results Show a Strong Turnaround Underway in Indonesia

Xl Axiata’s  (EXCL IJ) 4Q18 results triggered a very strong rally last week that continues this week. The market has been very concerned about competitive pressures in Indonesia and extremely low data prices. We believe that Indonesia is now past the worst and there is evidence that data pricing is starting to rise modestly. That is delivering a powerful tail wind for Indonesian telcos in 2019, with XL Axiata likely to report several very strong quarters.

XL Axiata now reporting strong sequential revenue growth (% QoQ)

3. Fortis Healthcare: OK Results and a Cost-Cutter CEO

Fortis Healthcare (FORH IN) ‘s hospital business continued to improve in FQ3 while the lab business remained stable. This Insight briefly focuses on the highlights of the results and their implications. The hiring of a CEO out of Narayana Hrudayalaya (NARH IN) signals continued (and likely intensified) focus on efficiency to improve profitability. 

We continue to think that Fortis is a promising turnaround story. Refer to the Insight Stream for the history of this situation.

In this briefing:

1. S: Outshines Thai Property Peers on High Recurring Profit
2. Mercari (4385) A Great Business but over Priced
3. Tencent Music: A Case of Failing to Live up to Hyped Expectations
4. Tencent Music (TME): Problems Come from Corporate Clients and In-House Contents, 35% Downside
5. Indian Mobile – ARPUs Inflect as the Worst May Be over for Bharti, Although Not for Vodafone IDEA

1. S: Outshines Thai Property Peers on High Recurring Profit

We initiate coverage of S with a BUY rating, based on a target price of Bt4.2 derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology and implying 16.5xPE’19E, a 23% discount to the average of its peers in the Thai real estate sector.

The story:

• Asset value to drive long-term sustainable growth
• 19 projects under development worth a combined Bt36bn to drive sales over the next three years
• REITs will be a key catalyst to boost recurring income
• Higher revenue contribution from hotel business

Risks:

• Tightened credit approval
• Raw material costs & F/X fluctuation

Background: In 2014, Santi Bhirombhakdi** and his property arm, Singha Property Management, acquired a major stake in RASA, a listed property company on the SET, and changed its name to “Singha Estate Public Company Limited”,  or “S”. This new major shareholder quickly unveiled plans to transform S into a holding company. During 2015-17, the company made several acquisitions including (1) a 51.56% stake in NVD, a low-rise property developer that operates under the “Nirvana” brand with a current market value of Bt2.7bn; (2) Suntowers, an office complex worth Bt4.5bn; and (3) a mixed-use commercial complex owned by the major holder’s family business worth over Bt6bn. It also set up a joint venture with a partner to invest in and operate 26 hotels in the UK worth Bt8.6bn.

Revenue breakdown:

The residential property segment contributed 41% of S’s 2018 total revenue. This segment includes the development and sale of high-rise and-low rise projects such as single detached houses, townhomes, home offices, and condominiums.

The commercial property segment contributed 36% of total revenue. This business includes space for rent, common-service charges for utilities, security systems, and other service fees. The company owns two commercial property projects — The Lighthouse (a community mall) and Suntowers (an office complex).

S owns 37 hotels with a combined 4,271 rooms comprising (1) two hotels with 297 rooms in Thailand, namely Santiburi Beach Resort & Spa and Phi Phi Island Village Beach Resort; (2) 22 hotels in England and 7 in Scotland (total of 3,115 rooms) under a 50:50 JV with FICO Group; and (3) 6 Outrigger-branded hotels with 859 rooms. This segment accounts for 18% of sales.

The company also provides construction materials such as precast concrete and aluminum, as well as hotel management services. These two segments contribute 3% and 2% respectively.

2. Mercari (4385) A Great Business but over Priced

Established in 2013, this has been a huge success story in Japan. The company operates the largest C to C mobile app that allows customers to trade in second hand goods with each other. Growth has been phenomenal. In the year to 6/15, Mercari had revenue of Y4.2bn, three years later (6/18) this had risen to Y35.7bn. This growth carries on, first half revenue this year to December 2018 rose 45% to Y23.7bn. It has begun an operation in the US, currently loss making, and has just introduced “Merpay”, a prepaid card incorporated into one’s mobile phone along the lines of Suica that allows users to purchase goods and pay bills. Funds can be deposited following a sale on Mercari’s site or transferred from a bank. Revenue will probably continue to grow at a rapid pace and whilst there are some that will jump on board, it is impossible to come up with any sensible valuation that can really justify a purchase here. There is no p.e.r. and the company will be loss making for the next couple of years. Its market cap of Y440bn means that it is trading on perhaps 6x 6/20 sales. On top of this, there are risks with regards to the viability of its US operation. Management appear to be aware to this and have set certain time limits for a turn around. There are many BUYS out on this name, thematically it has much going for it, but the valuation leaves us cold.

3. Tencent Music: A Case of Failing to Live up to Hyped Expectations

• One word to describe Tencent Music Entertainment’s (TME US) first conference call post IPO is uninspiring.
• Management does not provide concrete 2019/1Q19 guidance, but hints margin pressures persist largely due to investments in music contents.
• We expect that consensus still has to revise down TME’s 2019-20E net profits forecast by 17-26%.
• On our earnings forecast, TME unattractively trades at 46.3x/37x 2019-20E PE, a whopping 48-52% premium to peers average.

4. Tencent Music (TME): Problems Come from Corporate Clients and In-House Contents, 35% Downside

• Stripping music subscription revenues, we find TME’s revenues from corporate clients are not stable.
• We believe in-house products will negatively impact margin in 2019.
• We believe the main business line, social entertainment, will grow strongly. However, we also believe the market is over optimistic about the margin.
• We believe the stock price has downside of 35%.

5. Indian Mobile – ARPUs Inflect as the Worst May Be over for Bharti, Although Not for Vodafone IDEA

Chris Hoare sees increasing signs that the worst is over, at least for Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN). ARPUs and therefore revenues are bottoming. The 3Q numbers were the first quarter where the market as a whole grew sequentially (+2.5% QoQ) since Jio launched. We expect profits to follow. Signs of stabilization are much clearer for Bharti, as the performance gap vs Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN) remains wide. Both Bharti and IDEA are raising around $3.5bn of new equity. However, as we wrote previously, we do not think this is enough for Vodafone IDEA and expect the company to continue to lose market share. By contrast, Bharti’s capital increase puts the company in a strong position going forward and allows investors to fully discount extreme stress scenarios.

In this briefing:

1. Mercari (4385) A Great Business but over Priced
2. Tencent Music: A Case of Failing to Live up to Hyped Expectations
3. Tencent Music (TME): Problems Come from Corporate Clients and In-House Contents, 35% Downside
4. Indian Mobile – ARPUs Inflect as the Worst May Be over for Bharti, Although Not for Vodafone IDEA
5. RBI Says Kotak Tried to “Take It for a Ride”: Shareholders Should Expect the Consequences

1. Mercari (4385) A Great Business but over Priced

Established in 2013, this has been a huge success story in Japan. The company operates the largest C to C mobile app that allows customers to trade in second hand goods with each other. Growth has been phenomenal. In the year to 6/15, Mercari had revenue of Y4.2bn, three years later (6/18) this had risen to Y35.7bn. This growth carries on, first half revenue this year to December 2018 rose 45% to Y23.7bn. It has begun an operation in the US, currently loss making, and has just introduced “Merpay”, a prepaid card incorporated into one’s mobile phone along the lines of Suica that allows users to purchase goods and pay bills. Funds can be deposited following a sale on Mercari’s site or transferred from a bank. Revenue will probably continue to grow at a rapid pace and whilst there are some that will jump on board, it is impossible to come up with any sensible valuation that can really justify a purchase here. There is no p.e.r. and the company will be loss making for the next couple of years. Its market cap of Y440bn means that it is trading on perhaps 6x 6/20 sales. On top of this, there are risks with regards to the viability of its US operation. Management appear to be aware to this and have set certain time limits for a turn around. There are many BUYS out on this name, thematically it has much going for it, but the valuation leaves us cold.

2. Tencent Music: A Case of Failing to Live up to Hyped Expectations

• One word to describe Tencent Music Entertainment’s (TME US) first conference call post IPO is uninspiring.
• Management does not provide concrete 2019/1Q19 guidance, but hints margin pressures persist largely due to investments in music contents.
• We expect that consensus still has to revise down TME’s 2019-20E net profits forecast by 17-26%.
• On our earnings forecast, TME unattractively trades at 46.3x/37x 2019-20E PE, a whopping 48-52% premium to peers average.

3. Tencent Music (TME): Problems Come from Corporate Clients and In-House Contents, 35% Downside

• Stripping music subscription revenues, we find TME’s revenues from corporate clients are not stable.
• We believe in-house products will negatively impact margin in 2019.
• We believe the main business line, social entertainment, will grow strongly. However, we also believe the market is over optimistic about the margin.
• We believe the stock price has downside of 35%.

4. Indian Mobile – ARPUs Inflect as the Worst May Be over for Bharti, Although Not for Vodafone IDEA

Chris Hoare sees increasing signs that the worst is over, at least for Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN). ARPUs and therefore revenues are bottoming. The 3Q numbers were the first quarter where the market as a whole grew sequentially (+2.5% QoQ) since Jio launched. We expect profits to follow. Signs of stabilization are much clearer for Bharti, as the performance gap vs Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN) remains wide. Both Bharti and IDEA are raising around $3.5bn of new equity. However, as we wrote previously, we do not think this is enough for Vodafone IDEA and expect the company to continue to lose market share. By contrast, Bharti’s capital increase puts the company in a strong position going forward and allows investors to fully discount extreme stress scenarios.

5. RBI Says Kotak Tried to “Take It for a Ride”: Shareholders Should Expect the Consequences

The language used in the writ petition filed by Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) in Bombay High Court against the banking regulator should have alarmed shareholders. They would be even more apprehensive if they read the language used by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its reply. That a bank should take the regulator to court and publicly challenge its authority in order to prevent a dilution in its founders’ shareholding is itself telling of the founder-CEO’s excessive influence on the board. The harsh, critical language used by the RBI in its court filing (“wilful misrepresentation”, “mala fide intent” taking the regulator “for a ride”) indicates its extreme displeasure with the bank, and the troubles that await the bank if the High Court rules in the regulator’s favour. In such an event, the RBI would probably demand a restructuring of the KMB’s board of directors, and may even force the removal of the founder as a CEO. 

In this briefing:

1. XL Axiata Results Show a Strong Turnaround Underway in Indonesia
2. Fortis Healthcare: OK Results and a Cost-Cutter CEO

1. XL Axiata Results Show a Strong Turnaround Underway in Indonesia

Xl Axiata’s  (EXCL IJ) 4Q18 results triggered a very strong rally last week that continues this week. The market has been very concerned about competitive pressures in Indonesia and extremely low data prices. We believe that Indonesia is now past the worst and there is evidence that data pricing is starting to rise modestly. That is delivering a powerful tail wind for Indonesian telcos in 2019, with XL Axiata likely to report several very strong quarters.

XL Axiata now reporting strong sequential revenue growth (% QoQ)

2. Fortis Healthcare: OK Results and a Cost-Cutter CEO

Fortis Healthcare (FORH IN) ‘s hospital business continued to improve in FQ3 while the lab business remained stable. This Insight briefly focuses on the highlights of the results and their implications. The hiring of a CEO out of Narayana Hrudayalaya (NARH IN) signals continued (and likely intensified) focus on efficiency to improve profitability. 

We continue to think that Fortis is a promising turnaround story. Refer to the Insight Stream for the history of this situation.

In this briefing:

1. New J. Hutton Exploration Report (Week Ending 15/02/19)

1. New J. Hutton Exploration Report (Week Ending 15/02/19)

• Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) continued strong BUY
• Mineral Resource increased 2% to 6.61Moz
• 2019 attributable production guided at 50–60koz Au
• AISC est. between A$1,050 to $1,150/oz, is realistic
•  Using $1,300/oz attributable 2019 EBIT will be between US$7.5-15m
• 2020 attributable EBIT of 150k/oz conservative $A54m
• Price/EBIT ratio now 10.9 to 16.8 (previous est. 8 to 9.1)
• Expand AIM & ASX coverage to 397 companies from next week
• Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Azumah Resources (AZM AU), Millennium Minerals (MOY AU), Metals X Ltd (MLX AU), De Grey Mining (DEG AU) , Resolute Mining (RSG AU), Andromeda Metals (ADN AU)