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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 25
0

Daily Brief Thailand: Krung Thai Bank Pub and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Thai Banks 1Q24 Screener; We Stick with Krung Thai for Best Value, Kasikorn for Positive Catalysts

Thai Banks 1Q24 Screener; We Stick with Krung Thai for Best Value, Kasikorn for Positive Catalysts

By Victor Galliano

  • Krung Thai is our value pick among Thai banks, having solid post-provision profitability, close to double digit ROE with a healthy balance sheet, along with undemanding PBV and PE ratios
  • We maintain Kasikorn on the buy list, as its cost of risk was well contained in 1Q24, a key positive catalyst for its improving post-provision returns
  • Bank of Thailand is currently accepting applications for digital banking licenses until 19 September 2024; incumbent banks and domestic big corporates are likely to form the core of applicants

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Apr 25
0

Daily Brief Australia: ADX Energy Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Important Step to Unlock Sicily

ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Important Step to Unlock Sicily

By Auctus Advisors

  • The Italian ministry has informed ADX that it will be granted the d 363C.R-.AX gas exploration permit in the Sicily Channel.
  • In addition, the Regional Administrative Court of Rome has annulled the Plan for the Sustainable Energy Transition of Eligible Areas that prevented the oil redevelopment, appraisal and exploration activities on the licence.
  • The annulment, if not contested, will result in reversion to the 2018 legislation enabling oil as well as gas within the d 363C.R .AX permit to be exploited.

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Apr 25
0

Daily Brief South Korea: HD Hyundai Marine Solution , Samsung Biologics and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution: IPO Book Building Results Analysis
  • A Review of Post IPO Price Performance of Top 13 IPOs in Korea Past 8 Months
  • Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Mixed 1Q24 Result; Order Book Swells; New Drug Approval in Europe

HD Hyundai Marine Solution: IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution’s IPO price has been determined at 83,400 won per share, which is at the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • A total of 2,021 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building. The demand ratio was 201 to 1. HD Hyundai Marine Solution will start trading on 8 May 2024.
  • Our base case valuation of HD Hyundai Marine Solution is target price of 98,254 won per share, which represents an upside of 18% from the IPO price.

A Review of Post IPO Price Performance of Top 13 IPOs in Korea Past 8 Months

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we review the share price performances of the top 13 IPOs (in terms of market cap) in Korea in the past 8 months. 
  • We review the the share price performances over different time periods (1 day, 1 week,  and 1 month). We also analyze the demand ratios and lock-up periods of the IPOs. 
  • On average, 12.7% of the IPO shares are under lockup periods for the 13 companies listed below. HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO has 45.8% of shares under lock-up.

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Mixed 1Q24 Result; Order Book Swells; New Drug Approval in Europe

By Tina Banerjee

  • Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) reported mixed 1Q24 result, with revenue beating and operating profit missing estimates. Despite robust revenue growth, profitability is under pressure.
  • With accumulated orders exceeding $12.5B (vs $12B at the end of 2023), the outlook remains strong. A gradual increase in Plant 4 operations is expected to drive sequential revenue growth.
  • On April 23, Samsung Bioepis received marketing approval from European Commission (EC) for Pyzchiva, a biosimilar of Stelara, thereby becoming an early mover in a potential €2.5B market.

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Apr 25
0

Daily Brief Singapore: iFAST and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Insights: iFAST Corp – A Profitable Fintech Player that Deserves More Investor Attention

Smartkarma Insights: iFAST Corp – A Profitable Fintech Player that Deserves More Investor Attention

By Geoff Howie

Smartkarma Insights: iFAST Corp – A Profitable Fintech Player that Deserves More Investor Attention

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Apr 25
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Amman Mineral Internasional, Indika Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks
  • Indika Energy – Event Flash – Launches Tender Offer And 5NC2 Notes Offering – Lucror Analytics

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

By Brian Freitas

Indika Energy – Event Flash – Launches Tender Offer And 5NC2 Notes Offering – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Indika Energy has launched a tender offer for its USD 8.25% 2025 notes, with USD 534 mn outstanding. For each USD 1,000 in principal, the tender consideration is USD 962.5 and early tender consideration is USD 50, leading to a total consideration of USD 1,012.5. Indika is concurrently launching a USD 144A/RegS offering. Holders of the 8.25% ’25s may request to receive priority allocation on the new notes.

We view initial price talk of 8.875% as attractive, given the company’s robust credit profile and improving debt maturity profile.

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Apr 25
0

Daily Brief United States: Mister Car Wash , Grocery Outlet Holding Corp, Revolution Medicines, Oddity Tech , Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals , frontdoor Inc, Arlo Technologies Inc, Southwestern Energy Co, Murphy Usa Inc, NOV and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Mister Car Wash Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Increased Revenue Through Titanium 360 Rollout & Member Upgrades & Other Major Drivers
  • Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.: Initiation Of Coverage – A Tale Of Increasing Operational Efficiency With Technology Implementation! – Major Drivers
  • Revolution Medicines Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Progression Of Clinical Development Programs & Other Major Drivers
  • Oddity Tech Ltd.: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is The Significance of Brand & What Are The Product Range Expansions? – Major Drivers
  • Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals: Progression of ARO-MUC5AC & ARO-MMP7 Programs & Other Major Drivers
  • Frontdoor Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Revenue Enhancements & Customer Base Growth Strategies! – Major Drivers
  • ARLO: Service Changes and Q1
  • Southwestern Energy Company: These Are The 4 Pivotal Factors Influencing Its Growth!
  • Murphy USA Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Expansion Of Tobacco Business & Digital Transformation
  • NOV Inc: How Are They Adapting Their Business Strategy To Cater To The Increasing Demand?

Mister Car Wash Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Increased Revenue Through Titanium 360 Rollout & Member Upgrades & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Mister Car Wash unveiled its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year ending December 31, 2023.
  • The annual results demonstrated solid progress driven by the company’s efforts to enhance its services, physical operations, and team.
  • During Q4, sales rose 7% to $230 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 5% to $69.5 million.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.: Initiation Of Coverage – A Tale Of Increasing Operational Efficiency With Technology Implementation! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Grocery Outlet management reported its full-year 2023 earnings results, which were slightly ahead of expectations.
  • The company demonstrated strong customer acquisition and traffic, driven by competitive pricing and its treasure hunt shopping experience.
  • The acquisition of United Grocery Outlet is one of the major highlights of the company’s performance, as it added 40 stores to the network.

Revolution Medicines Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Progression Of Clinical Development Programs & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Revolution Medicines reported a decent set of earnings call for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023.
  • Throughout the year, Revolution made significant strides, such as revealing the preliminary clinical profiles of two targeted RAS(ON) inhibitors, RMC-6236 and RMC-6291, from Phase I/IIb trials.
  • According to data from the Triple Meeting and ESMO Congress, these investigational drugs show promise and support continued development.

Oddity Tech Ltd.: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is The Significance of Brand & What Are The Product Range Expansions? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ODDITY, a data-driven beauty platform, posted strong financial results, reaching two important milestones in 2023: surpassing $500 million in revenue and generating over $100 million of adjusted EBITDA. The company’s net revenue grew 57% to $509 million, while adjusted EBITDA surged 173% to $107 million.
  • ODDITY’s online platform, launched only five years ago, currently has over 50 million users and is responsible for these robust financial results.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals: Progression of ARO-MUC5AC & ARO-MMP7 Programs & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals is committed to rapidly innovating and developing treatments and plans to grow their pipeline of RNAi therapeutics to a minimum of 20 clinical-stage or marketed products by the year 2025.
  • This pledge reflects Arrowhead’s two core goals of maximizing the number of patients aided and the ability to generate enduring value for shareholders.
  • Due to the company’s maturing pipeline, Arrowhead is focusing on prioritizing and investing in their internal programs and is actively building late-stage development and commercial infrastructure to focus on the cardiometabolic vertical.

Frontdoor Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Revenue Enhancements & Customer Base Growth Strategies! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2023 earnings offered insights into Frontdoor’s financial performance, key initiatives, and strategic moves being executed by the company.
  • From the CEO, Bill Cobb’s comments, it is evident that 2023 was a record year in which the company exceeded Expectations and delivered exceptional financial performance.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

ARLO: Service Changes and Q1

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ARLO ) changed their subscription plans at the beginning of 2024 and Q1 results are expected to show little change in consumer habits since these pricing plans were instituted
  • ARLO started 2024 with new pricing for its lowest subscription tier as cloud costs for such customers were more than the monthly subscription rate
  • The focus of the first quarter results should remain on subscriber growth, especially as holiday period hardware sales begin to transition to paid subscription

Southwestern Energy Company: These Are The 4 Pivotal Factors Influencing Its Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • Southwestern Energy’s third quarter 2023 earnings reflected a mixed but overall optimistic outlook for the company’s financial and operational performance.
  • On the positive side, the company has demonstrated consistent progress in optimizing free cash flow generation and capital investment, a trend that the company expects to maintain.
  • An improving macro environment, driven primarily by growing liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand, further enhances this outlook.

Murphy USA Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Expansion Of Tobacco Business & Digital Transformation

By Baptista Research

  • In the fourth quarter of 2023, Murphy USA reported solid performance which supports their enduring commitment to drive sustainable value for its stakeholders.
  • The company has been successful at achieving more from the same loyal customers, with statistics showing these customers spend 50% more than they did in 2019.
  • Furthermore, the company’s new loyalty members showed similar behavior as their most loyal customers in 2019, making about 5 transactions per month and spending at higher levels.

NOV Inc: How Are They Adapting Their Business Strategy To Cater To The Increasing Demand?

By Baptista Research

  • National Oilwell Varco (NOV) reported a solid fourth quarter of 2023, with revenues up 7% sequentially to $2.3 billion.
  • This growth was driven by strong offshore and international demands and a continued improvement in the supply chain.
  • However, the company identified several challenges in its performance, including a 5% sequential decline in North American land revenues and an unexpected $20 million impact on EBITDA due to the devaluation of the Argentine peso.

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Apr 25
0

Daily Brief India: Afcons Infrastructure Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited Pre-IPO – The Positives – Profitability More than Doubled

Afcons Infrastructure Limited Pre-IPO – The Positives – Profitability More than Doubled

By Ethan Aw

  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited (6595396Z IN) is looking to raise US$840m in its upcoming India IPO. 
  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited (Afcons) is the flagship infrastructure engineering and construction company of the Shapoorji Pallonji group.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal. 

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Apr 25
0

Daily Brief China: Link REIT, Robosense Technology, Luk Fook Holdings Intl, CIMC Enric Holdings, Sunho Biologics and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HK REITs Re-Rate On Southbound Inclusion
  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Robosense (2498 HK) Could Be Added in June
  • Luk Fook 590.HK – Losing Its Shine?
  • CIMC Enric (3899 HK): Robust Order Backlog Outshined Lower 1Q24 Revenue
  • Pre-IPO Sunho Biologics (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

HK REITs Re-Rate On Southbound Inclusion

By David Blennerhassett

  • In RMB Dual Counter Trading Is Coming – This Changes AH Relationships, Travis Lundy discussed the forthcoming inclusion of RMB dual counters in the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs.
  • This is but one of the five capital market cooperation measures announced by the CSRC last Friday. 
  • The other four measures include ETFs, improving mutual recognition of funds, increasing China IPOs in Hong Kong, and the inclusion of REITs. This insight discusses the latter.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Robosense (2498 HK) Could Be Added in June

By Brian Freitas

  • There were only 12 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX (388 HK) in the first quarter of the year. More than half the listings were in March.
  • Of those stocks, we only see Robosense Technology (2498 HK) having a chance of being added to the HSCI in June and then into Southbound Stock Connect.
  • There is a big lock-up expiry for Robosense Technology (2498 HK) in July and that should keep the stock under pressure.

Luk Fook 590.HK – Losing Its Shine?

By Rikki Malik

  • March Same-Store sales in China disappoint mainly due to diamond jewellery demand
  • Overall, gold demand in China continues to rise both in the retail and the official sector
  • Visitor arrivals to Hong Kong pick up but are still ~40% below pre-Covid levels.

CIMC Enric (3899 HK): Robust Order Backlog Outshined Lower 1Q24 Revenue

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Although the 1Q24 revenue of CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK) has edged down by 6.8%, this is not a concern as its order backlog suggested a resilient pipeline.
  • New orders signed increased by 35.7% with that for clean energy surged 100.2%. Order backlog of Rmb26.9bn represents a growth of 41.9% YoY and 17.8% against end-FY23.
  • Management also commented that there is a marked improvement in gross margin for 1Q24 and expects this trend to continue. Its 10.8x PER is inexpensive.

Pre-IPO Sunho Biologics (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Sunho’s pipeline has high risk and there is a long way to go to demonstrate their final clinical value. It’s highly uncertain if Sunho would bring expected return to investors.
  • The entities involved in the process of reorganization were all related parties. Investment from Efung Anhe/Efung Ansheng sparked concern from CSRC. Sunho is required to explain whether there’s any benefit transfer.
  • Due to the lack of strong fundamentals, there is no reason for high valuation. It’s not surprising if Sunho’s valuation finally falls below HKD1.53 billion (or even below HK$1 billion).  

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Apr 25
0

Daily Brief Japan: Nikon Corp, Fanuc Corp, Advance Create, Tkc Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikon (7731) – Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There’s Value Here
  • Fanuc (6954) | Profitability Problems Persist
  • Advance Create (8798): Q1 FY09/24 Update
  • TKC (9746): Q1 FY09/24 Update

Nikon (7731) – Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There’s Value Here

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, post-close, Bloomberg reported a headline “*SILCHESTER REPORTS NIKON STAKE; MAY SEEK CAPITAL POLICY CHANGES“
  • That was exciting. It was in all caps. It was activist-ish-y. Today the stock rose 10.3% and we got another article saying it was up because of Silchester’s filing.
  • Beware the Bloomberg headline. Nuance is sometimes lost. They aren’t always designed to help investors invest. Often, the main purpose is clickbait.

Fanuc (6954) | Profitability Problems Persist

By Mark Chadwick

  • Fanuc reported a -7% decline in revenue for FY3/24 and 26% decline in operating profit. 
  • The market will be disappointed by guidance for a further fall on the top line and 15% decline in profits as margins hit an all time low
  • The valuation of 30x EV / EBIT suggests the market was hoping for a turnaround in profits this year. That recovery has now been pushed back

Advance Create (8798): Q1 FY09/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Advance Create Co., Ltd. is an independent insurance agent that sells insurance products mainly to individuals on behalf of multiple insurance companies, also undertaking follow-up services on their behalf.
  • In FY09/23, the company reported revenue of JPY10.2bn, operating loss of JPY2.0bn, recurring loss of JPY2.2bn, and net loss attributable to owners of the parent of JPY1.8bn
  • On February 20, 2024, Advance Create Co., Ltd. announced that it expects to receive dividends from its consolidated subsidiary, Advance Create Reinsurance Incorporated.

TKC (9746): Q1 FY09/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • TKC Corporation provides accounting and tax services to accounting firms (and client companies they advise), local governments, and others using its own computational centers, while subsidiary TLP Corp.
  • In full-year FY09/23, the company reported consolidated sales of JPY71.9bn, operating profit of JPY14.3bn, recurring profit of JPY14.8bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY10.8bn.
  • TKC does not release a medium-term business plan. However, it is pursuing the following four objectives in close cooperation with TKC National Federation.

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Apr 25
0

Daily Brief Industrials: HD Hyundai Marine Solution , Fanuc Corp, Ocean Wilsons Holdings, CIMC Enric Holdings, Afcons Infrastructure Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution: IPO Book Building Results Analysis
  • A Review of Post IPO Price Performance of Top 13 IPOs in Korea Past 8 Months
  • Fanuc (6954) | Profitability Problems Persist
  • Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index
  • CIMC Enric (3899 HK): Robust Order Backlog Outshined Lower 1Q24 Revenue
  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited Pre-IPO – The Positives – Profitability More than Doubled

HD Hyundai Marine Solution: IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution’s IPO price has been determined at 83,400 won per share, which is at the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • A total of 2,021 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building. The demand ratio was 201 to 1. HD Hyundai Marine Solution will start trading on 8 May 2024.
  • Our base case valuation of HD Hyundai Marine Solution is target price of 98,254 won per share, which represents an upside of 18% from the IPO price.

A Review of Post IPO Price Performance of Top 13 IPOs in Korea Past 8 Months

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we review the share price performances of the top 13 IPOs (in terms of market cap) in Korea in the past 8 months. 
  • We review the the share price performances over different time periods (1 day, 1 week,  and 1 month). We also analyze the demand ratios and lock-up periods of the IPOs. 
  • On average, 12.7% of the IPO shares are under lockup periods for the 13 companies listed below. HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO has 45.8% of shares under lock-up.

Fanuc (6954) | Profitability Problems Persist

By Mark Chadwick

  • Fanuc reported a -7% decline in revenue for FY3/24 and 26% decline in operating profit. 
  • The market will be disappointed by guidance for a further fall on the top line and 15% decline in profits as margins hit an all time low
  • The valuation of 30x EV / EBIT suggests the market was hoping for a turnaround in profits this year. That recovery has now been pushed back

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I see two regular changes for the F100 index during the June 2024 review. There are more names very close to triggering F100 index changes.
  • I see eight other changes for F250 in the run up to the June 2024 review including three intra-review changes. One of those intra-review changes will be confirmed later today.

CIMC Enric (3899 HK): Robust Order Backlog Outshined Lower 1Q24 Revenue

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Although the 1Q24 revenue of CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK) has edged down by 6.8%, this is not a concern as its order backlog suggested a resilient pipeline.
  • New orders signed increased by 35.7% with that for clean energy surged 100.2%. Order backlog of Rmb26.9bn represents a growth of 41.9% YoY and 17.8% against end-FY23.
  • Management also commented that there is a marked improvement in gross margin for 1Q24 and expects this trend to continue. Its 10.8x PER is inexpensive.

Afcons Infrastructure Limited Pre-IPO – The Positives – Profitability More than Doubled

By Ethan Aw

  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited (6595396Z IN) is looking to raise US$840m in its upcoming India IPO. 
  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited (Afcons) is the flagship infrastructure engineering and construction company of the Shapoorji Pallonji group.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal. 

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