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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Most Read: Aozora Bank Ltd, Alibaba Group Holding , Goodman Group, Shriram Finance , Pi Industries, Woori Financial Group , Kokusai Electric , Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Sankei Real Estate and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Is Murakami-San Going To Do A PacMetals Rug Pull on Aozora? Or Is This For Real?
  • Aozora Bank (8304 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder
  • Alibaba Group Holdings: EM Fund Positioning Update
  • Goodman Group (GMG AU): Positioned for Outperformance
  • NIFTY50 Index Rebalance: Shriram Finance to Replace UPL
  • NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Five Changes on Expected Lines; Big Turnover
  • Woori Financial Placement – While the Overhang Remains, the Deal Would Be Easily Digested
  • TOPIX “Big April Basket” 2024 Expectations: More High-Conviction Names; Better Trade Ideas
  • Clearing up Confusion About Bringing Back Short Selling in Korea
  • Sankei Real Estate (2972) Sponsor Buy Now On And It Isn’t Small (Even if the REIT Is)


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Is Murakami-San Going To Do A PacMetals Rug Pull on Aozora? Or Is This For Real?

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday after the close, well-known Japanese activist Murakami-san’s preferred entity City Index Eleventh filed a Large Shareholder Report. 
  • The blast across Bloomberg was “*AOZORA 5.4% STAKE REPORTED BY CITY INDEX ELEVENTH.” Sounds exciting after the shares dropped 34% in two days earlier this month after reporting big writedowns. 
  • But there has to be a question here. Why? And Why this way? And what kind of activism would be possible? 

Aozora Bank (8304 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

By Arun George

  • Murakami’s entity, City Index Eleventh, reported a 5.42% shareholding in Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP). Murakami started buying a day after the disastrous 3QFY23 results.
  • Murakami’s average buy-in price is JPY2,137.88 per share, a 34% discount to the pre-3QFY23 results share price. 
  • Murakami’s disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term trading play replicating the Pacific Metals (5541 JP) playbook.

Alibaba Group Holdings: EM Fund Positioning Update

By Steven Holden

  • Despite average weights falling from over 6% in 2020 to under 2% today, 73% of EM funds remain invested in Alibaba.
  • The make up of the investor base has changed, with a rotation between high growth investors (out) and Value investors (in).
  • Of the 73% of current holders, the core portfolio weight range sits between 1.5% and 3%, with the most bullish topping out at 5%+

Goodman Group (GMG AU): Positioned for Outperformance

By Brian Freitas

  • Goodman Group (GMG AU) has been moving higher recently and the stock has outperformed its peers handily over the last year.
  • The stock trades marginally expensive compared to its peers and that could be partially attributed to the stock being a part of large indices.
  • There is another index inclusion to come and that could lead to further outperformance in the short term.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance: Shriram Finance to Replace UPL

By Brian Freitas


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Five Changes on Expected Lines; Big Turnover

By Brian Freitas

  • There are five changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 27 March. Changes are on expected lines.
  • Estimated one-way turnover for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) is 10.1% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 22.2bn (US$268m).
  • Apart from the impact on the adds and deletes, there will be a big impact on some of the non-F&O stocks due to capping and funding flows.

Woori Financial Placement – While the Overhang Remains, the Deal Would Be Easily Digested

By Clarence Chu

  • IMM PE, via Obis1, is looking to raise US$136m from selling a portion of its stake in Woori Financial Group (316140 KS).
  • While the deal doesn’t look particularly well-flagged, the PE has been invested for quite some time now. 
  • Despite the overhang, the deal is a small one to digest at just 1.7% of total shares outstanding, representing 5 days of the firm’s ADV.

TOPIX “Big April Basket” 2024 Expectations: More High-Conviction Names; Better Trade Ideas

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation.
  • For companies with “low liquidity” the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation.
  • Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE. In this insight, we take an early look at what could happen in April 2024.

Clearing up Confusion About Bringing Back Short Selling in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • Government sees foreign investors as key for Corporate Value-Up success, considering reinstating short selling.
  • Planning to expand short selling beyond 350 stocks, but anticipating pushback from retail investors, likely capping additional stocks around 100.
  • The head of the Financial Supervisory Service will formally disclose these plans during the upcoming short selling conference scheduled for March 13th.

Sankei Real Estate (2972) Sponsor Buy Now On And It Isn’t Small (Even if the REIT Is)

By Travis Lundy

  • Last October, I wrote about the plan the sponsor of Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) had to exchange buildings with the REIT to clean it up, then buy more units.
  • Today they announced the completion of the Portfolio Rebalancing Plan started in March 2023. And the plan to buy more units. The assets transferred out were gone at end Jan-2024.
  • Now that’s done, and there are units to buy. Maximum 46,652 units over maximum 220 days.

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Daily Brief Utilities: CGN Power, NorthVolt and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • FXI Rebalance: Three Buys. Three Sells
  • Northvolt CEO: Batteries, sustainability, Elon Musk and speed


FXI Rebalance: Three Buys. Three Sells

By Brian Freitas


Northvolt CEO: Batteries, sustainability, Elon Musk and speed

By In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

  • Building circular setups with latest technology to drive battery revolution sustainably
  • Goal to be fully circular company with 50% recycled material in ten years
  • Facing challenges from Chinese competition in terms of scale and strategic positioning, focusing on customization and customer intimacy as key differentiators for success

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Hyundai Mobis, Teikoku Sen-i Co., Ltd., Grab Holdings , Pacific Basin Shipping, S.F. Holding, Verisk Analytics, International Consolidated Airlines Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (Jan and Feb 2024)
  • Hidden Value in Plain Sight: Teikoku’s (3302) Potential Unlock
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – 2024 Set Up
  • Pacific Basin (2343 HK): An Upturn in the Making
  • Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)
  • Verisk Analytics: Is Its Growth Outlook Too Optimistic? What Are The Biggest Challenges? – Major Drivers
  • European Airlines – FCF the Key Differentiator Between AF-KLM and IAG


Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (Jan and Feb 2024)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in Korea in January and February 2024.
  • We provide a list of 22 stocks in the Korean stock market that have announced share buyback programs in the past two months.
  • Major companies that have announced share buybacks in Korea in the past two months include Shinhan Financial, Hyundai Mobis, and Samick Musical Instruments. All three have outperformed the market. 

Hidden Value in Plain Sight: Teikoku’s (3302) Potential Unlock

By Mark Chadwick

  • Teikoku, a stable disaster equipment leader, is undervalued due to excessive cash and cross-holdings.  
  • Regulatory pressure, industry trends, and potential Hulic asset sales create an opportunity to unlock hidden value.
  • Despite fair current pricing, potential share repurchases and improved capital allocation offer up to 40% upside.

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – 2024 Set Up

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) recently posted another set of positive results, with another quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. We conducted a follow-up call to explore the outlook for 2024. 
  • The company announced both a US$500m Buyback and the potential for improving margins in its deliveries business plus several new initiatives to drive growth in 2024 and beyond. 
  • Grab Financial continue to grow its loan book through lending to drivers and merchants, which should help to improve margins plus its high-margin advertising income is becoming increasingly important.

Pacific Basin (2343 HK): An Upturn in the Making

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK) has a weaker-than-expected 2H23, but we are glad that its unit cost has come down. Also, FY24F and FY25F should be years of recovery.
  • Current spot rates as indicated by BDI are significantly higher than 1H23 and YTD average, suggesting an upside for realised rates in the rest of this year. 
  • Supply pressure will be alleviated by the issues at Panama and Suez Canals, while China may be a factor in YoY demand improvement. Net gearing of 2% is light. 

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Industry ASP declined -15.5% Y/Y in January to just 8.36 CNY, a record low
  • Despite strong volume (+85% Y/Y) some firms have likely turned unprofitable
  • International parcel growth strong; SF still avoiding worst of domestic price wars

Verisk Analytics: Is Its Growth Outlook Too Optimistic? What Are The Biggest Challenges? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Verisk experienced a successful 2023 with strategic, organizational, and cultural changes, outstanding financial performance, and substantial value creation for clients and shareholders.
  • The company delivered 8.7% organic constant currency revenue growth in 2023, the highest rate since its initial public offering in 2009.
  • They exceeded the expectations set during the Investor Day in March.

European Airlines – FCF the Key Differentiator Between AF-KLM and IAG

By Neil Glynn

  • Following AF-KLM and IAG results we refresh our forecasts, and our detailed quarterly bridge analysis in 2024 suggests each can grow earnings this year.
  • IAG clearly differentiates itself from AF-KLM with strong FCF generation while AF-KLM is unlikely to generate positive FCF before 2025 as it pays obligations deferred through COVID.
  • ​Lufthansa continues to appear highest risk in 2024 given as capacity restoration catches up with peers.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Mosaic Co/The, Western Midstream Partners LP, Medco Energi, Godolphin Resources Ltd, Intl Flavors & Fragrances, Marathon Oil, Alkane Resources, Ecovyst, Nickel Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • The Mosaic Company: Stable Demand & Potash Production Increase Catalyzing Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Western Midstream Partners: An Analysis Of The Various Components Of Its Future Outlook! – Major Drivers
  • Medco Energi – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Godolphin Resources Limited – Uncovering Precious and Critical Metals in Central NSW
  • Uncovering precious and critical metals in central NSW
  • International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF): New Launches
  • Marathon Oil Corporation: Is Its Capital Efficiency Sustainable? – Major Drivers
  • Alkane Resources Limited – On the Cusp of Potential Expansion
  • ECVT: Cash Regeneration
  • Morning Views Asia: Nickel Industries


The Mosaic Company: Stable Demand & Potash Production Increase Catalyzing Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Mosaic Company’s fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings highlighted robust phosphate markets and an expected recovery of demand for potash.
  • Mosaic’s CEO, Bruce Bodine, spoke positively about their financial performance in 2023, with reported revenue of $13.7 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.8 billion, along with investing $1.4 billion in the business and returning $1.1 billion to shareholders through share repurchases.
  • One positive takeaway from the call was the strong phosphate market conditions, resulting from tight supply due to China’s fertilizer export restrictions and limited capacity additions in the short term.

Western Midstream Partners: An Analysis Of The Various Components Of Its Future Outlook! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Western Midstream Partners (WES) reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 earnings with a mixed financial result.
  • Nevertheless, the company retains a degree of optimism, particularly when considering certain initiatives and expected future outcomes.
  • In 2023, Western Midstream Partners successfully divested its remaining interest in several non core, non-operated assets worth $790 million.

Medco Energi – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Medco Energi’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its scores for the Environmental, Social and Governance pillars. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


Godolphin Resources Limited – Uncovering Precious and Critical Metals in Central NSW

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Godolphin Resources Limited (ASX:GRL) is an ASX-listed green metals and critical minerals explorer with a focus on central west New South Wales.
  • The company’s projects include the Narraburra rare earths element (REE) project, the Goodrich copper prospect, the Yeoval copper-gold-molybdenum project and the Gundagai gold project.
  • The projects are predominantly located on the Lachlan Fold Belt, a highly prospective province for the discovery of rare earth elements, copper, gold and base metal deposits. 

Uncovering precious and critical metals in central NSW

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Godolphin Resources Limited (ASX:GRL) is an ASX-listed green metals and critical minerals explorer with a focus on central west New South Wales.
  • The company’s projects include the Narraburra rare earths element (REE) project, the Goodrich copper prospect, the Yeoval copper-gold-molybdenum project and the Gundagai gold project.
  • The projects are predominantly located on the Lachlan Fold Belt, a highly prospective province for the discovery of rare earth elements, copper, gold and base metal deposits.

International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF): New Launches

By Baptista Research

  • International Flavors and Fragrances Inc.
  • (IFF) reported its fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings, where it was highlighted that comparable currency-neutral sales increased by 1%, and comparable currency-neutral EBITDA grew by 17% for the fourth quarter.
  • This comes amid a reported sales decline underscoring resilience within the company’s operational framework.

Marathon Oil Corporation: Is Its Capital Efficiency Sustainable? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Marathon Oil’s Q4 and full year 2023 results and full year 2024 outlook have highlighted some of the successes and challenges faced by the company.
  • The company’s Chairman, President, and CEO, Lee Tillman, emphasized on the company’s commitment to safety, environmental responsibility, and ongoing work to achieve zero routine flaring.
  • The company has continued to prioritize providing safe working conditions and has achieved a record safety year in 2023.

Alkane Resources Limited – On the Cusp of Potential Expansion

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK) is an ASX-listed gold producer and explorer with a focus on central west New South Wales.
  • The Perth-headquartered company owns and operates the Tomingley gold mine and processing facilities, south-west of Dubbo and the Northern Molong porphyry project in central west NSW which includes the highly prospective Boda and Kaiser deposits.
  • ALK recently announced high-grade results from the Kaiser resource upgrade drilling programme and upgraded the Boda resource to 6.6mn ounces of gold equivalent (AuEq), with 4.4Moz AuEq inferred. 

ECVT: Cash Regeneration

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ECVT continues to encounter macro headwinds in its business after seeing softness in certain end markets in the middle of 2023. 
  • We believe the trough in the business is underscoring the attractive nature of ECVT’s operations. The Company continues to generate free cash flow
  • Looking ahead, the free cash flow generation in 2024 provides greater balance sheet flexibility in reducing leverage and/or buying back more stock

Morning Views Asia: Nickel Industries

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Kokusai Electric , AEM, iFAST, Micron Technology, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Plover Bay Technologies, WCP, Novatek Microelectronics Corp, Pureprofile Ltd, Palo Alto Networks and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX “Big April Basket” 2024 Expectations: More High-Conviction Names; Better Trade Ideas
  • AEM: Cautious Guidance, but AI Exposure Highlighted and Company Could Benefit from Trump Re-Election
  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | iFAST: Stellar Performance of Singapore’s Global Fintech Player
  • Memory Monitor: Competition Is Hotting Up for Key Memory Chips Nvidia Depends On
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Surges After Showcasing Breathtaking AI Capabilities; Novatek; Nanya
  • Plover Bay 1523 HK: Solid FY23 Performance and Dividends, Rerating on the Cards
  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 51 Companies in Korea in March 2024
  • Novatek (3034.TT): It Had Been Qualified by the IPhone 16 for OLED Driver IC.
  • Better-than-forecast result, on track to meet guidance
  • Palo Alto Networks: Is The Increased Demand For Cybersecurity Platforms Expected To Last? – Major Drivers


TOPIX “Big April Basket” 2024 Expectations: More High-Conviction Names; Better Trade Ideas

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation.
  • For companies with “low liquidity” the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation.
  • Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE. In this insight, we take an early look at what could happen in April 2024.

AEM: Cautious Guidance, but AI Exposure Highlighted and Company Could Benefit from Trump Re-Election

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • AEM (AEM SP) reported FY23 results which showed a decline of 45% in annual revenues and a small loss on the net income line. Guidance is only given for 1H24.
  • Senior management will forego all bonuses, the CFO departs and the old CEO is coming back as a consultant. AEM’s stock closed down 20% after the FY23 results publication.
  • A potential new Trump presidency would push an “America First” agenda likely benefiting Intel and indirectly AEM in a big way.

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | iFAST: Stellar Performance of Singapore’s Global Fintech Player

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome iFAST’s Executive Director and Director of Corporate Communications, Mr Jean Paul Wong. 

In the upcoming webinar, Jean will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Alec Tseung.

Alec will also be providing an industry overview, featuring landscape commentary and returns analysis. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

In the spirit of giving back to our community, one of the attendees will also be awarded an Amazon Kindle as part of our exclusive lucky draw. 

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Thursday, 7 March 2024, 19:00 SGT.

About iFAST Corporation 

iFAST Corp (stock code: AIY) is a wealth management Fintech platform, with assets under administration (AUA) of S$19.83 billion as at 31 December 2023. Incorporated in the year 2000 in Singapore and listed on the SGX-Mainboard in December 2014, the Group is also present in Hong Kong, Malaysia, China, and UK. Through the years, the Group has built a well-established Fintech ecosystem connecting its product providers and clients. iFAST Corp holds the requisite licences in the various jurisdictions it operates in to provide a wide range of products and services.

As at end December 2023, the Group offers access to over 21,000 investment products including over 13,000 funds from over 320 fund houses, over 2,400 bonds, stocks and ETFs listed on the Singapore, Hong Kong, US, Malaysia, UK, and China A stock exchanges, as well as services including pension administration solutions, online discretionary portfolio management services, research and investment seminars, Fintech solutions, and investment administration and transaction services.


Memory Monitor: Competition Is Hotting Up for Key Memory Chips Nvidia Depends On

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Competition in the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) space is intensifying; Micron shares have rallied after it announced HBM3e mass production; SK Hynix has outperformed since its earnings release.
  • Nvidia’s H200, its most advanced chip for generative AI, leans heavily on HBM3e memory for its increased performance vs. the previous H100 generation. Memory leaders are key for Nvidia’s success.
  • Taiwan’s Nanya Tech appears to be watching HBM competition between Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung from the sidelines; can its shares get back into the game?

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Surges After Showcasing Breathtaking AI Capabilities; Novatek; Nanya

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Mediatek Top Performer; Showcasing New AI Capabilities at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona
  • Memory Monitor: Competition Is Hotting Up for Key Memory Chips Nvidia Depends On; Nanya Left Out?
  • Novatek (3034.TT): It Has Been Qualified by the IPhone 16 for OLED Driver IC

Plover Bay 1523 HK: Solid FY23 Performance and Dividends, Rerating on the Cards

By Sameer Taneja

  • Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) reported an 8.5%/ 24YoY increase in revenue/profits (%). Profits increased due to a net margin expansion of 370 bps to 29.8%. 
  • The company had positive news in January when Peplink announced that it had agreed with SpaceX’s Starlink to become an authorized technology provider using Peplink SD-WAN routers.
  • Trading at 11x/10x PE FY23/FY24e, with an 8.2% trailing dividend yield and ~60% ROE, this is another growth/dividend gem worth exploring.

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 51 Companies in Korea in March 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 51 stocks in Korea in March 2024, among which 5 are in KOSPI and 46 are in KOSDAQ.
  • These 51 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in March and could underperform relative to the market.
  • The top five market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold include APR, WCP, DS Dansuk, GI Innovation, and Geolit Energy.

Novatek (3034.TT): It Had Been Qualified by the IPhone 16 for OLED Driver IC.

By Patrick Liao

  • The supply chain received good news that Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) as successfully passed iPhone 16 OLED DRIVER IC (DDIC) qualification.
  • Novatek’s recent alliance with ARM to develop Neoverse V2 is a noteworthy development.
  • Novatek’s 1Q24F forecast remains unchanged, but the outlook for 2024F is likely to show positive growth.

Better-than-forecast result, on track to meet guidance

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pureprofile Ltd (ASX:PPL) is a data analytics, consumer insights and media company underpinned by proprietary technology, servicing business decision makers in brands and media companies as well as market researchers.
  • Pureprofile has confirmed, as previously announced on 30 January, that H1 FY24 revenue was $24.0m, with platform revenue contributing $4.4m, a 104% increase on the previous corresponding period (pcp).
  • EBITDA, adjusted for significant and non-cash items, increased 9.6% to $2.37m.

Palo Alto Networks: Is The Increased Demand For Cybersecurity Platforms Expected To Last? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Palo Alto Networks’ Q2 2024 earnings highlight indicate the company’s continued success in executing its profitable growth strategy.
  • The cybersecurity giant achieved significant top-line growth with revenues surging by 19% YoY, the RPO growing by 22%, and billings increasing by 16% YoY. Impressive, non-GAAP operating margins of 28.6% expanded roughly 600 basis points YoY, generating $2.9 billion in adjusted free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Hyundai Mobis, Teikoku Sen-i Co., Ltd., Grab Holdings , Pacific Basin Shipping, S.F. Holding, Verisk Analytics, International Consolidated Airlines Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (Jan and Feb 2024)
  • Hidden Value in Plain Sight: Teikoku’s (3302) Potential Unlock
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – 2024 Set Up
  • Pacific Basin (2343 HK): An Upturn in the Making
  • Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)
  • Verisk Analytics: Is Its Growth Outlook Too Optimistic? What Are The Biggest Challenges? – Major Drivers
  • European Airlines – FCF the Key Differentiator Between AF-KLM and IAG


Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (Jan and Feb 2024)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in Korea in January and February 2024.
  • We provide a list of 22 stocks in the Korean stock market that have announced share buyback programs in the past two months.
  • Major companies that have announced share buybacks in Korea in the past two months include Shinhan Financial, Hyundai Mobis, and Samick Musical Instruments. All three have outperformed the market. 

Hidden Value in Plain Sight: Teikoku’s (3302) Potential Unlock

By Mark Chadwick

  • Teikoku, a stable disaster equipment leader, is undervalued due to excessive cash and cross-holdings.  
  • Regulatory pressure, industry trends, and potential Hulic asset sales create an opportunity to unlock hidden value.
  • Despite fair current pricing, potential share repurchases and improved capital allocation offer up to 40% upside.

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – 2024 Set Up

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) recently posted another set of positive results, with another quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. We conducted a follow-up call to explore the outlook for 2024. 
  • The company announced both a US$500m Buyback and the potential for improving margins in its deliveries business plus several new initiatives to drive growth in 2024 and beyond. 
  • Grab Financial continue to grow its loan book through lending to drivers and merchants, which should help to improve margins plus its high-margin advertising income is becoming increasingly important.

Pacific Basin (2343 HK): An Upturn in the Making

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK) has a weaker-than-expected 2H23, but we are glad that its unit cost has come down. Also, FY24F and FY25F should be years of recovery.
  • Current spot rates as indicated by BDI are significantly higher than 1H23 and YTD average, suggesting an upside for realised rates in the rest of this year. 
  • Supply pressure will be alleviated by the issues at Panama and Suez Canals, while China may be a factor in YoY demand improvement. Net gearing of 2% is light. 

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Industry ASP declined -15.5% Y/Y in January to just 8.36 CNY, a record low
  • Despite strong volume (+85% Y/Y) some firms have likely turned unprofitable
  • International parcel growth strong; SF still avoiding worst of domestic price wars

Verisk Analytics: Is Its Growth Outlook Too Optimistic? What Are The Biggest Challenges? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Verisk experienced a successful 2023 with strategic, organizational, and cultural changes, outstanding financial performance, and substantial value creation for clients and shareholders.
  • The company delivered 8.7% organic constant currency revenue growth in 2023, the highest rate since its initial public offering in 2009.
  • They exceeded the expectations set during the Investor Day in March.

European Airlines – FCF the Key Differentiator Between AF-KLM and IAG

By Neil Glynn

  • Following AF-KLM and IAG results we refresh our forecasts, and our detailed quarterly bridge analysis in 2024 suggests each can grow earnings this year.
  • IAG clearly differentiates itself from AF-KLM with strong FCF generation while AF-KLM is unlikely to generate positive FCF before 2025 as it pays obligations deferred through COVID.
  • ​Lufthansa continues to appear highest risk in 2024 given as capacity restoration catches up with peers.

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Daily Brief Financials: Woori Financial Group , Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Sankei Real Estate, Wing Tai Holdings, Bitcoin, Agile Property Holdings, NU Holdings /Cayman Islands, SES AI Corp, S&U PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Woori Financial Placement – While the Overhang Remains, the Deal Would Be Easily Digested
  • Clearing up Confusion About Bringing Back Short Selling in Korea
  • Sankei Real Estate (2972) Sponsor Buy Now On And It Isn’t Small (Even if the REIT Is)
  • Wing Tai Holdings: Privatisation Chatter
  • Block Deal Sale of 1.7% Stake of Woori Financial by IMM Private Equity
  • Crypto Moves #17 – Is Michael Saylor, in fact, Satoshi Nakamoto?
  • Agile Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Nubank (NU US): The Challenges for 2024
  • Update Note- SES AI Corp
  • S&U – Impairments drag FY24 PBT, moderation in FY25


Woori Financial Placement – While the Overhang Remains, the Deal Would Be Easily Digested

By Clarence Chu

  • IMM PE, via Obis1, is looking to raise US$136m from selling a portion of its stake in Woori Financial Group (316140 KS).
  • While the deal doesn’t look particularly well-flagged, the PE has been invested for quite some time now. 
  • Despite the overhang, the deal is a small one to digest at just 1.7% of total shares outstanding, representing 5 days of the firm’s ADV.

Clearing up Confusion About Bringing Back Short Selling in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • Government sees foreign investors as key for Corporate Value-Up success, considering reinstating short selling.
  • Planning to expand short selling beyond 350 stocks, but anticipating pushback from retail investors, likely capping additional stocks around 100.
  • The head of the Financial Supervisory Service will formally disclose these plans during the upcoming short selling conference scheduled for March 13th.

Sankei Real Estate (2972) Sponsor Buy Now On And It Isn’t Small (Even if the REIT Is)

By Travis Lundy

  • Last October, I wrote about the plan the sponsor of Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) had to exchange buildings with the REIT to clean it up, then buy more units.
  • Today they announced the completion of the Portfolio Rebalancing Plan started in March 2023. And the plan to buy more units. The assets transferred out were gone at end Jan-2024.
  • Now that’s done, and there are units to buy. Maximum 46,652 units over maximum 220 days.

Wing Tai Holdings: Privatisation Chatter

By David Blennerhassett

  • Following an Staits Times article this week – or perhaps just a coincidence – property play Wing Tai Holdings (WINGT SP) popped 8%. 
  • Yesterday’s close of S$1.47/share, compares to its book value of S$4.24 (as at 31 Dec 2023). Cash on hand is S$684mn against borrowings of ~S$770mn.
  • And the Cheng family has been buying up shares, almost every day since last September. That stake is currently 61.45%. Another Wing Tai Malaysia (WING MK) privatisation in the making?

Block Deal Sale of 1.7% Stake of Woori Financial by IMM Private Equity

By Douglas Kim

  • IMM Private Equity announced that it is selling a 1.7% stake in Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) in a block deal sale. 
  • The number of shares subject to sale is 12.56 million, or 177.7 billion won to 181.5 billion won.
  • Block deal sale discount range is reasonable, valuation multiples are low, and we expect continued positive capital inflow into stocks related to Corporate Value Up in the next 12 months. 

Crypto Moves #17 – Is Michael Saylor, in fact, Satoshi Nakamoto?

By Mads Eberhardt

  • The domain bitcoin.org was registered on August 18th, 2008.
  • Just over two months later, on October 31st, an individual or group using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto unveiled the Bitcoin whitepaper.
  • This was soon followed by the mining of the first Bitcoin block, known as the genesis block, on January 9th, 2009.

Agile Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We view Agile Group’s ESG as “Adequate”. The company’s Environmental and Social scores are “Adequate”, while Governance is “Weak”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


Nubank (NU US): The Challenges for 2024

By Victor Galliano

  • Management’s successful execution to 4Q23 has driven its LTM ROE of 18%+ and ROA of 2.6%; in Brazil, the focus is to grow secured lending and further penetrate high-income retail
  • In Mexico, management aims to leverage off the deposit base and build its credit business, as well as establishing itself in Colombia; challenges include containing capital consumption and credit delinquency
  • In Mexico especially, the competitive climate in digital banking is intensifying which puts pressure on customer acquisition costs, costs to serve, and it could drive up credit delinquency risks

Update Note- SES AI Corp

By Water Tower Research

  • During 2023, the company took significant steps toward utilizing AI in the development of future electrolytes.
  • SES’ objective is to create a roadmap for the next iterations of Li-Metal technology.
  • SES highlighted that practical safety and manufacturability as the key milestones for entering into B-sample development.

S&U – Impairments drag FY24 PBT, moderation in FY25

By Edison Investment Research

In its trading update between December 2023 and January 2024, S&U announced that FY24 PBT will be 10% to 15% below consensus of c £38m. The key reason is lower collection rates in Advantage of 90% (H123: 94%) have prompted an increase in provisions. Management expects the collection rate to partially recover in the following months. Underpinned by an improving real estate market, Aspen continues to grow steadily with net receivables just over £130m (FY23: £114m). Elevated borrowing, at £224m, alongside higher interest rates have consequently doubled S&U’s interest payments to £15.1m (FY23: £7.5m). We have lowered our FY24 and FY25 PBT estimates by 12% and 8%, respectively.


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Daily Brief Health Care: Euroapi , United Therapeutics, Exact Sciences, Actinogen Medical, Medtronic Plc, TYK Medicines, InMed Pharmaceuticals , Classys and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Euroapi (EAPI) – Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023
  • United Therapeutics Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – 6 Biggest Factors Driving Its Future Growth! – Financial Forecasts
  • Exact Sciences Corporation: Launch Of MRD product OncoDetect & Other New Products! – Major Drivers
  • Actinogen Medical – Pressing forward with Xanamem
  • Medtronic plc: Data Driven Innovations & 5 Major Drivers Of Its Future Growth! – Financial Forecasts
  • Pre-IPO TYK Medicines – Survival Risk Is Imminent, with Limited Highlights in the Pipeline
  • InMed Pharmaceuticals, Inc. – Water Tower Hour Recap
  • Classys (214150 KS): 2023 Sales Beat Guidance to Reach Record High; Stellar Performance to Continue


Euroapi (EAPI) – Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • EAPI is trading at a significant decrease of €5.10 per share, down from previous levels of €12.00-€13.00 before a downward revision of guidance
  • The company is undergoing a strategic review after firing the CEO and facing multiple guidance changes, causing investors to lose faith in the management team
  • EAPI was previously highlighted as a minimally levered spinout with potential for growth in CDMO work, but customer concentration with Sanofi as a major revenue contributor has been a factor in its discounted value compared to peers like SFZN

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


United Therapeutics Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – 6 Biggest Factors Driving Its Future Growth! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on biotech major, United Therapeutics Corporation (UTC).
  • The company posted solid financial results for the fourth quarter of 2023, marking the third consecutive quarter of record revenue, and the second consecutive year of record income.
  • The company achieved over 20% growth in both quarterly and annual revenue for the fourth quarter and the full year.

Exact Sciences Corporation: Launch Of MRD product OncoDetect & Other New Products! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Exact Sciences Corporation showcased substantial growth and improved profitability throughout 2023.
  • With a 24% increase in core revenue amounting to $2.5 billion and an uplifted adjusted EBITDA amounting to $362 million, the firm grew robustly.
  • This success is largely credited to the advancement of its mission to eradicate cancer via the facilitation of innovative screening and precision oncology under major brands like Cologuard, Oncotype DX, and PreventionGenetics.

Actinogen Medical – Pressing forward with Xanamem

By Edison Investment Research

Having shown cognitive activity in prior trials, Actinogen began its XanaMIA Phase IIb study of lead candidate Xanamem in patients with cognitive impairment (CI) associated with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The study will assess c 220 biomarker-positive AD patients, with interim results expected in H1 CY25. Actinogen recently reported results from a human positron emission tomography (PET) imaging study, which affirm the drug’s mechanism of action (MoA) in healthy subjects and patients with AD, by showing that Xanamem exhibited high target enzyme occupancy designed to impede cortisol production, as well as favourable safety and tolerability. Our risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) remains essentially unchanged at A$528m.


Medtronic plc: Data Driven Innovations & 5 Major Drivers Of Its Future Growth! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Medtronic delivered a solid quarter with its mid-single-digit revenue growth exceeding expectations.
  • The fiscal ’24 third quarter earnings were underpinned by strength across multiple businesses like Core Spine, Cardiac Surgery, Structural Heart and Cardiac Pacing, along with robust growth witnessed across various international markets.
  • Innovation-driven core technologies such as robotics, AI and closed-loop systems acted as significant growth propellers, with five AI products already FDA approved.

Pre-IPO TYK Medicines – Survival Risk Is Imminent, with Limited Highlights in the Pipeline

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Among core/key products, TY-302 and TY-2136b have to face fierce competition, with R&D progress lagging behind competing products.TY-9591 for brain metastases from NSCLC could be a breakthrough point for TYK.
  • There would be a long time for the first product to generate revenue, but TYK is cash shortage.So, the survival risk is high. Such companies are less attractive to investors.
  • Valuation of TYK after six rounds of financing was RMB3.08 billion. However, considering the weak sentiment and concerns on pipeline, valuation of TYK after IPO could fall below this level.

InMed Pharmaceuticals, Inc. – Water Tower Hour Recap

By Water Tower Research

  • BayMedica’s VP, Sales & Marketing, Jerry. P. Griffin joined us on The Water Tower Hour.
  • Those interested can listen to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, or our website.
  • BayMedica is the commercial business arm of rare cannabinoids-based drug developer InMed Pharmaceuticals.

Classys (214150 KS): 2023 Sales Beat Guidance to Reach Record High; Stellar Performance to Continue

By Tina Banerjee

  • Classys (214150 KS) achieved its highest performance ever in 2023. Revenue grew 27% YoY to KRW180 billion, 6% higher than the forecast of KRW170 billion announced early last year.
  • As demand for equipment increased rapidly in major countries, overseas sales last year exceeded KRW100 billion for the first time, and specially in Brazil, annual sales exceeded KRW40 billion.
  • With a positive outlook, Classys is expected to maintain growth trajectory. The company expects 2024 annual revenue of KRW225 billion, up 25% YoY. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: Stella International, GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT, Lawson Inc, Asahi India Glass, Home Depot Inc, Golf Digest Online, Natura Cosmeticos Sa, Garmin Ltd, Walmart and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Stella International: A Beneficiary of Reshoring
  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) – A Leaner Green Machine
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement
  • Asahi India Glass Ltd: A.G.E. Analysis
  • The Home Depot Inc.: Strategic Investment in Pro Ecosystem & Interconnected Experience & Other Developments – Major Drivers
  • 4Q Follow-Up -Golf Digest Online | 3319
  • Natura – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Garmin Ltd.: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Its Biggest Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers
  • Walmart Inc.: Robust Technology Adoption For Operational Efficiency & 5 Other Major Drivers


Stella International: A Beneficiary of Reshoring

By David Mudd

  • Vietnam now accounts for more than 50% of production replacing China
  • China production is less than 25% of overall capacity in 2023
  • Reshoring and production of higher end “Athleisure” shoes is increasing margins for Stella International (1836 HK)

GoTo (GOTO IJ) – A Leaner Green Machine

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo held a public expose at the IDX to update investors on latest developments including the Tokopedia sale but also to outline its key strategies for 2024. 
  • GoTo will start to receive the service fee from Tokopedia from 1st February despite that monitoring is ongoing by the Ministry of Trade although that is now 75% complete.
  • GoTo’s focus will be on affordable products, some new premium offerings, and increasing higher take rate lending products through GoPay, with incoming fees from Tokopedia providing additional funding going forward.  

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of February 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.
  • The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~33%.
  • This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

Asahi India Glass Ltd: A.G.E. Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Asahi India Glass (AISG IN) is an integrated glass and window solutions company and engages both in the automotive and the building & construction segments.
  • While capital allocation is not a major concern for the company, the only element that could warrant attention is CWIP as the company has several projects overdue.
  • Margins have been strong yet slightly fluctuating in the last two years. Overall, the balance sheet health looks okay.

The Home Depot Inc.: Strategic Investment in Pro Ecosystem & Interconnected Experience & Other Developments – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Home Depot’s Q4 2023 earnings highlighted both opportunities realized during the fiscal year and challenges faced, which contributed to a year of moderate performance.
  • Overall, the company witnessed a sales decline by 3% reaching $152.7 billion for the fiscal year 2023 while comp sales dropped by 3.2% and EPS stood at $15.11, revealing a reduction from the previous year’s $16.69.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

4Q Follow-Up -Golf Digest Online | 3319

By Sessa Investment Research

  • On the surface, FY23/12 consolidated OP -68% YoY, profit ATOP -53%, and FY24/12 initial guidance for a profit ATOP net loss may appear to indicate a challenging earnings environment.
  • However, closer examination reveals steady earnings improvement, and the new MTP through FY26/12 targets recouping major overseas growth investments.
  • The table below shows sequential improvement in the amount change YoY for Group EBITDA, OP and profit ATOP every quarter, with profits at all 9 levels posting YoY gains in the 4Q. 

Natura – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Natura’s ESG as “Strong”, in line with the Environmental and Social pillars, while Governance is “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.


Garmin Ltd.: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Its Biggest Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Garmin Ltd., leading producer of navigation and communication equipment.
  • The company delivered strong growth in both consolidated revenue and profit for Q4 2023.
  • Consolidated revenue rose by 13% to nearly $1.5 billion, breaking a new quarterly record with three of its business segments reporting double-digit growth.

Walmart Inc.: Robust Technology Adoption For Operational Efficiency & 5 Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In its recent earnings, Walmart demonstrated a strong performance with sales growth of 4.9% and adjusted operating profit growth of 10.9% in constant currency.
  • Major highlights include higher transaction counts and unit volumes, gains in market shares in both the U.S and internationally, improved in-stock levels, and strong performance in customer experience scores.
  • It’s also significant that the company surpassed $100 billion in global eCommerce sales for the first time.

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Daily Brief ESG: Agile Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Agile Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Medco Energi – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Natura – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Agile Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We view Agile Group’s ESG as “Adequate”. The company’s Environmental and Social scores are “Adequate”, while Governance is “Weak”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


Medco Energi – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Medco Energi’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its scores for the Environmental, Social and Governance pillars. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


Natura – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Natura’s ESG as “Strong”, in line with the Environmental and Social pillars, while Governance is “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.


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