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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – Price and Momentum Breakouts in March Confirm 10-15% Upside and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – Price and Momentum Breakouts in March Confirm 10-15% Upside
  • Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – Price and Momentum Breakouts in March Confirm 10-15% Upside

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) bottomed in Oct/Nov 2022 around the 61.8% retracement support. The subsequent impulsive multi-month uptrend maintains the bullish LT trend reversal confirmed in 2021.
  • March 2023 has delivered new bullish breakouts in price and LT momentum that confirm a sustainable LT uptrend bias. Initial target at 5.28 (+13%). Longer term risk to 6.50/6.80 (+40%).

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

By Joe Jasper

  • The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
  • Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
  • As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners

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Daily Brief India: Synergy Green Industries, Indika Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Synergy Green Industries- Forensic Analysis
  • Weekly Wrap – 31 Mar 2023

Synergy Green Industries- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Synergy Green Industries (SYGIL IN)  is engaged in the business of foundry i.e., manufacturing of wind turbine casting and other large precision castings.
  • The company has been quite aggressive regarding its capex in the last few years especially, but the value add of these projects remains to be seen.
  • Levered balance sheet, volatile business operations coupled with high related party transactions are some of the discomforts on the forensic front.

Weekly Wrap – 31 Mar 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Japfa Comfeed Indonesia
  2. Yankuang Energy Group
  3. Anton Oilfield
  4. China Jinmao Holdings
  5. Lifestyle International Holdings

and more…


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Daily Brief Indonesia: Merdeka Battery Materials, Siloam International Hospitals, Indika Energy, Tower Bersama Infrastructure, Pakuwon Jati and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Merdeka Battery Materials IPO – Commercializing One of the World’s Largest Nickel Mines
  • Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ) – Back to Base Case Growth
  • Weekly Wrap – 31 Mar 2023
  • Tower Bersama – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Pakuwon Jati – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

Merdeka Battery Materials IPO – Commercializing One of the World’s Largest Nickel Mines

By Ethan Aw

  • Merdeka Battery Materials (2012725D IJ) is looking to raise around US$580m in its Indonesian IPO.
  • It has the largest resource globally in terms of contained nickel at the Konawe Nickel Mine (the SCM Mine), according to Wood Mackenzie. 
  • MBM aims to become a vertically integrated battery materials player. Through a series of acquisitions, it owns one of the world’s largest nickel mines. 

Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ) – Back to Base Case Growth

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ) is coming out of the COVID period with guns blazing as base case revenues continue to grow, surpassing pre-pandemic levels and with margins improving. 
  • 2022 was a year of two halves and 2H2022 saw a clear resumption of base case patient activity, Siloam also saw the benefits of unified pricing and improved efficiencies.
  • Siloam looks well-positioned to grow its base case revenues further in the coming year, with a healthy cost base and more beneficial pricing. Valuations are attractive on 9.4x FY2023E EV/EBITDA.

Weekly Wrap – 31 Mar 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Japfa Comfeed Indonesia
  2. Yankuang Energy Group
  3. Anton Oilfield
  4. China Jinmao Holdings
  5. Lifestyle International Holdings

and more…


Tower Bersama – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Tower Bersama’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


Pakuwon Jati – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Pakuwon Jati’s (PWON) FY 2022 results were acceptable. This was despite the company missing its pre-sales and earnings targets, given the sharp deterioration in the operating environment in H2 on the back of a steep rise in interest rates. Growth in y-o-y revenue, earnings and cash-flow was expected, given the COVID-19 lockdowns in FY 2021. Positively, the balance sheet remains in great shape, with net cash and no short-term debt. The company has the best credit profile among the companies under our Indonesian real estate coverage, and is the only one that has not carried out any bond tender offer below par. PWON has the best quality portfolio of retail assets and the highest portion of recurrent rental income among peers.


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Daily Brief Thailand: Delta Electronics Thai and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Valuation Divergence Hits a New Extreme

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Valuation Divergence Hits a New Extreme

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • The valuation divergence between Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB) and its parent Delta Electronics (2308 TT) has hit a new extreme.
  • Delta Thailand surged 9.3% Thursday on no news, even prompting the Thailand Stock Exchange to query the company.
  • Delta Taiwan’s stake in Delta Thailand is now worth more than all of Delta Taiwan. The valuation divergence would seem unsustainable, however when things revert is uncertain.

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Daily Brief South Korea: DB Hitek Co., Ltd. and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • DB Hitek: KCGI Goes Activist & A Potential Inclusion in MSCI Korea Standard Index in 2023

DB Hitek: KCGI Goes Activist & A Potential Inclusion in MSCI Korea Standard Index in 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • It was announced on 30 March that a local activist firm called KCGI has invested 7.05% stake in DB Hitek, spending 196.4 billion won on buying this amount.
  • KCGI mentioned that DB Hitek’s corporate value is extremely undervalued that the company should cancel its treasury shares and establish independent Board of Directors. 
  • The probability of DB Hitek being included in MSCI Korea Standard could rise materially if its market cap climbs to more than 4 trillion won in the coming weeks.

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Daily Brief United States: Restoration Hardware Holdings, BigBear.ai Holdings, Ford Motor Co, iShares MSCI ACWI ETF, MSCI Inc, Paccar Inc, IAC/InterActiveCorp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • RH: A One-Of-Its-Kind Business
  • Short Idea – BigBear.ai (BBAI-US)
  • Ford Stock – Risk Factors To Consider
  • Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan
  • Boom, Bust, Reboot, Rebalance: ESG Index Funds And “Greenwashing” Regulations
  • PACCAR Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • PACCAR Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • IAC/InterActiveCorp: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • AECOM: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • IAC/InterActiveCorp: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

RH: A One-Of-Its-Kind Business

By Steven Chen

  • RH is the only luxury lifestyle brand at scale on this planet;
  • Both qualitative and quantitative evidence point to the emerging and probably widening economic moat around the business;
  • We see rich optionality regarding RH’s growth trajectory moving forward;

Short Idea – BigBear.ai (BBAI-US)

By Guasty Winds

  • Another smallish one, but EV of ~$500m (bigger than PRST but still illiquid b.c. low free-float).
  • Equity is probably not worth much more than $0. I’m not short this yet, because I fear that management still has some fight left in it to ride the AI-hype.
  • I want to get my timing right. It is a heavily shorted stock which has been the victim of squeezes multiple times in the past. And I don’t much fancy getting my head ripped off.

Ford Stock – Risk Factors To Consider

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • The company’s financial statements reveal a few critical concerns relating to a receivables build-up, increasing credit allowances, and high short-term borrowing.
  • The firm’s misfortunes were due to non-core events such as impairments, marketable security losses, and abnormal inflation.
  • The economy is on a knife’s edge, and cyclical stocks such as Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) look like 50:50 bets.

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

By Joe Jasper

  • The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
  • Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
  • As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners

Boom, Bust, Reboot, Rebalance: ESG Index Funds And “Greenwashing” Regulations

By Kyle Rudden

  • Whatever one calls it – a boom-going-bust, a bubble bursting, a market correcting – the ESG party that has raged for years appears to be winding down for certain investors.
  • Some partygoers have over-indulged in the ESG Kool-Aid, and regulators have the perfect elixir to sober them up – new and often confusing “anti-greenwashing” investing regulations.
  • Particularly consequential for indexed ESG funds.  Index providers and asset managers struggle to comply, evidenced by recent methodology changes, reconstitutions, and fund closings.

PACCAR Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on PACCAR, the largest manufacturer of medium and heavy-trucks in the world.
  • Pretax earnings at PACCAR Parts reached $380 million, a 23% increase over the same time in the previous year.
  • Fourth quarter revenues at PACCAR Parts were a solid $1.47 billion and the company delivered an all-around beat.

PACCAR Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • PACCAR is among the world’s largest manufacturers of medium and heavy trucks.
  • PACCAR saw an increase in truck production as well as the completion of almost all the cars that still needed components.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

IAC/InterActiveCorp: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • IAC/ InterActiveCorp is a major media and internet player publishing original and engaging digital content in the form of articles, illustrations, and videos and images across various fields.
  • They had a HomeAdvisor that connected customers with service providers based on what the customer wanted to be done and what the service provider was qualified to accomplish.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

AECOM: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • AECOM is one of the largest professional infrastructure consulting players in the world.
  • AECOM’s management is focusing on its investments to go after transformative growth opportunities where it has a competitive edge.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

IAC/InterActiveCorp: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on IAC, a major media and internet player publishing original and engaging digital content in the form of articles, illustrations, and videos and images across various fields.
  • They had a HomeAdvisor that connected customers with service providers based on what the customer wanted to be done and what the service provider was qualified to accomplish.
  • Looking forward, IAC’s management intends to increase margins by generating additional revenue from a fixed-cost basis and they anticipate double-digit revenue growth in the coming quarters.

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Daily Brief China: JD.com Inc., Tencent, Country Garden Holdings Co, PetroChina, China SCE, Indika Energy, Sino-Ocean Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • JD.com (9618 HK) Announces TWO Spin-Offs (That Were Always Going To Be Spinoffs)
  • Tencent: Next Candidate for an Alibaba Style Split?
  • Country Garden – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – Price and Momentum Breakouts in March Confirm 10-15% Upside
  • China SCE – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Weekly Wrap – 31 Mar 2023
  • Sino-Ocean – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

JD.com (9618 HK) Announces TWO Spin-Offs (That Were Always Going To Be Spinoffs)

By Travis Lundy

  • Two days ago, media reported Alibaba Group (9988 HK) / Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) would split and possibly list several businesses. Last night Cainiao was reported as starting listing preparations.
  • Last night, JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) made two announcements it was proposing to spin off and list its JD Property and JD Industrial arms. This is NOT a spinoff war.
  • JD raised Series A and B for both companies. These were always going to be spins, like Health, Digits, and Logistics. JD Properties will be biggish.

Tencent: Next Candidate for an Alibaba Style Split?

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • While all eyes are on Alibaba splitting its business into six mini-Babas, some were quick to conclude that Tencent could be the next candidate for a similar split.
  • Unlike Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) whose business units have clear divisions and stand on its own, Tencent (700 HK) ’s businesses are interconnected making a similar split very difficult.
  • Having looked at Tencent’s business units and past regulatory probe on the company, it seems unlikely for the company to be the next candidate for an Alibaba style separation.

Country Garden – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Country Garden has released its FY 2022 results, with revenue and earnings declines as well as margin contraction. Reported debt decreased. EBITDA/Interest and Debt/EBITDA weakened significantly, but Net Debt/Net Property Assets remained sound. In December, the company received HKD 4.74 bn (c. USD 609 mn) from a private placement of 1.78 bn shares, with the funds primarily to be used for offshore debt commitments.

We are not surprised by Country Garden’s poor earnings performance in FY 2022, given that it had been a dire year for the Chinese property industry. We view positively the company’s repayment of debts due in 2022, despite difficulties in property sales and cash collection.

We remain cautious about the likelihood that management can achieve its goal of increasing Country Garden’s market share in higher-tier cities. We also continue to be highly concerned over the recovery trajectory for the group’s margins and property sales in FY 2023, considering the relatively large portion of existing inventory in Tier 3 and 4 cities compared to peers.


PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – Price and Momentum Breakouts in March Confirm 10-15% Upside

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) bottomed in Oct/Nov 2022 around the 61.8% retracement support. The subsequent impulsive multi-month uptrend maintains the bullish LT trend reversal confirmed in 2021.
  • March 2023 has delivered new bullish breakouts in price and LT momentum that confirm a sustainable LT uptrend bias. Initial target at 5.28 (+13%). Longer term risk to 6.50/6.80 (+40%).

China SCE – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

SCE’s FY 2022 results were as expected, with sustained weakness in contracted sales and revenue, along with weaker margins. Going forward, management’s strategy includes progressing steadily to deal with the volatility in the industry. The delivery of projects will be a key objective, in order to maintain homebuyer confidence.


Weekly Wrap – 31 Mar 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Japfa Comfeed Indonesia
  2. Yankuang Energy Group
  3. Anton Oilfield
  4. China Jinmao Holdings
  5. Lifestyle International Holdings

and more…


Sino-Ocean – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Sino-Ocean’s FY 2022 results were very weak. The decline in property sales revenue and profitability did not come as a surprise, given the moribund state of the property industry. The CNY 4.8 bn increase in gross debt and CNY 5.2 bn write-down on financial investments were, however, somewhat unexpected. These reflect very poorly on management and, needless to say, there have been no changes of note in this regard.


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Daily Brief ESG: Tower Bersama – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Tower Bersama – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Boom, Bust, Reboot, Rebalance: ESG Index Funds And “Greenwashing” Regulations
  • Odigeo – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Tower Bersama – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Tower Bersama’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


Boom, Bust, Reboot, Rebalance: ESG Index Funds And “Greenwashing” Regulations

By Kyle Rudden

  • Whatever one calls it – a boom-going-bust, a bubble bursting, a market correcting – the ESG party that has raged for years appears to be winding down for certain investors.
  • Some partygoers have over-indulged in the ESG Kool-Aid, and regulators have the perfect elixir to sober them up – new and often confusing “anti-greenwashing” investing regulations.
  • Particularly consequential for indexed ESG funds.  Index providers and asset managers struggle to comply, evidenced by recent methodology changes, reconstitutions, and fund closings.

Odigeo – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Odigeo’s ESG as “Strong”, in line with its Environmental and Social scores, while Governance is “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Mar 31st): Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Mar 31st): Tencent, AIA, CSPC

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Mar 31st): Tencent, AIA, CSPC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Mar 31st based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), Cspc Pharmaceutical (1093 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK).

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Daily Brief ECM: Merdeka Battery Materials IPO – Commercializing One of the World’s Largest Nickel Mines and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Merdeka Battery Materials IPO – Commercializing One of the World’s Largest Nickel Mines
  • AECOM: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Restructuring & Other Developments
  • IAC/InterActiveCorp: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • PACCAR Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

Merdeka Battery Materials IPO – Commercializing One of the World’s Largest Nickel Mines

By Ethan Aw

  • Merdeka Battery Materials (2012725D IJ) is looking to raise around US$580m in its Indonesian IPO.
  • It has the largest resource globally in terms of contained nickel at the Konawe Nickel Mine (the SCM Mine), according to Wood Mackenzie. 
  • MBM aims to become a vertically integrated battery materials player. Through a series of acquisitions, it owns one of the world’s largest nickel mines. 

AECOM: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Restructuring & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on AECOM, one of the largest infrastructure consulting players in the world.
  • AECOM’s management is focusing on its investments to go after transformative growth opportunities where it has a competitive edge.
  • Organic NSR growth quickened to 8%, with a 9% increase in design, which is on par with their strongest level over the past ten years and robust growth in both categories.

IAC/InterActiveCorp: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on IAC, a major media and internet player publishing original and engaging digital content in the form of articles, illustrations, and videos and images across various fields.
  • They had a HomeAdvisor that connected customers with service providers based on what the customer wanted to be done and what the service provider was qualified to accomplish.
  • Looking forward, IAC’s management intends to increase margins by generating additional revenue from a fixed-cost basis and they anticipate double-digit revenue growth in the coming quarters.

PACCAR Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on PACCAR, the largest manufacturer of medium and heavy-trucks in the world.
  • Pretax earnings at PACCAR Parts reached $380 million, a 23% increase over the same time in the previous year.
  • Fourth quarter revenues at PACCAR Parts were a solid $1.47 billion and the company delivered an all-around beat.

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