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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Thailand: Bangkok Bank Public, Minor International and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • BBL/KBANK: Huge Outperformance as BBL Nears NVDR Limit
  • Minor International (MINT): The Best Stock for Thai Tourism Recovery?

BBL/KBANK: Huge Outperformance as BBL Nears NVDR Limit

By Brian Freitas


Minor International (MINT): The Best Stock for Thai Tourism Recovery?

By Henry Soediarko

  • Minor International (MINT TB) is trading at 2.4x PBR, slightly higher than during the pre-COVID level at 2x.
  • Most of its hotels are in Europe (77%) and only half of the food business is in Thailand. 
  • Other Thai stocks have higher exposure to Thai tourism-related activities.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Halcyon Agri, AIMS APAC REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (05 Feb) – Pertamina Geothermal, Hesai, Halcyon, Toshiba, Pushpay, O2Micro
  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | AA REIT: Future Proofing for Sustainable Growth

Weekly Deals Digest (05 Feb) – Pertamina Geothermal, Hesai, Halcyon, Toshiba, Pushpay, O2Micro

By Arun George


Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | AA REIT: Future Proofing for Sustainable Growth

By Smartkarma Research

In the upcoming webinar, AIMS APAC REIT’s (“AA REIT”) CEO, Mr Russell Ng, will share a short company presentation. After which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Angus Mackintosh. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 28 February 2023, 17:00 SGT.

About AIMS APAC REIT

AIMS APAC REIT (“AA REIT”) is a real estate investment trust listed on the Mainboard of the SGX-ST since 2007. The principal investment objective of AA REIT is to invest in a diversified portfolio of high quality income-producing logistics, business parks and industrial real estate throughout Asia Pacific. As at 30 September 2022, AA REIT’s portfolio consists of 29 properties, of which 26 properties are located throughout Singapore and 3 properties located in Australia (including a 49.0% interest in Optus Centre held through a joint venture), with assets under management of S$2.2 billion. AA REIT is also a constituent of the FTSE EPRA Nareit Global Developed Index and the MSCI Singapore Small Cap Index. 

AA REIT is managed by AIMS APAC REIT Management Limited, which is wholly-owned by AIMS Financial Group (“AIMS”). Headquartered in Sydney, AIMS is a diversified financial services and investment group, active in the areas of fund management, mortgage lending, investment banking and property investment. AIMS is also the owner of the Sydney Stock Exchange.


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Daily Brief South Korea: Hanwha Corporation and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Introducing ARIRANG K-Defense, Sector ETF Currently in the Limelight in Korea

Introducing ARIRANG K-Defense, Sector ETF Currently in the Limelight in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • ARIRANG K-Defense Industry Fn ETF (449450 KS) shows the fastest AUM/ADV growth among recently listed sector ETFs. It is virtually the only one enjoying the influx of local retail investors.
  • The increasing trend of ETF AUM, coupled with the growing interest of local retail investors in the defense sector, will likely lead to flow improvement in each constituent.
  • The passive impact of some stocks in the upcoming rebalancing is expected to expand to 0.4-0.5x ADTV. Notable names in this regard are Hanwha Corporation and SNT Motiv.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Pertamina Geothermal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Pertamina Geothermal IPO: Valuation Insights

Pertamina Geothermal IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


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Daily Brief United States: Hesai Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Hesai Group IPO: The Bear Case

Hesai Group IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Hesai Group (HSAI US) has launched a Nasdaq IPO to raise up to US$171 million at an indicative price range of US$17-19 per ADS.
  • In Hesai Group IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on continuing pricing pressure, declining contract liabilities, gross margin decline, ongoing losses, worsening cash conversion cycle and FCF burn.

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Daily Brief China: Jiangxi Special Electric Motor A, Yashili International Holdings, Hesai Group, JD Health, Alphamab Co Ltd, Luckin Coffee, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Atour Lifestyle Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform
  • Merger Arb Mondays (6 Feb) – Yashili, Kingston, Origin, Pushpay, Halcyon, O2Micro, Techno Associe
  • Hesai Group IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Mar 23: Healthcare Names Could Dominate
  • HESAI Group IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Alphamab Co Ltd Placement (9966.HK) – Has No Potential to Be a Biopharma; Just Remain as a Biotech
  • Luckin(LKNCY.US) Initiation: Rising Challenger, Market and Business Model
  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, China Hongqiao
  • Atour (ATAT.US) Preview: Expecting Weak 4Q22 and Strong 2023

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform

By Brian Freitas

  • Three quarters of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 June.
  • There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 11.47% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 10.11bn.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last few weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.


Hesai Group IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Hesai Group (HSAI US) is looking to raise around US$170m in its upcoming US IPO.
  • HSAI is a manufacturer of three-dimensional light detection and ranging (Lidar) solutions. It has shipped over 103,000 Lidar units from 2017 to the end of 2022.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Mar 23: Healthcare Names Could Dominate

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) in March 2023.
  • We believe Healthcare names could be given top priority when selecting additions for the upcoming rebalance.
  • The final index changes along with indicative capping and index weights could be published in Mid/Late-February 2023 and implemented in early-March 2023.

HESAI Group IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Hesai Group is implied market cap of US$3.4 billion or target price of US$27.1 per share.
  • Our target price is 43% higher than the high end of the IPO price of US$19 per share. Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of this IPO. 
  • The company’s superior technology in the LiDAR product segment along with its global market leadership should help Hesai Group to successfully complete this IPO despite political risks related to China. 

Alphamab Co Ltd Placement (9966.HK) – Has No Potential to Be a Biopharma; Just Remain as a Biotech

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Unlike ADC, there’re still doubts on the outlook of whole bispecific antibody mechanism. Alphamab Oncology doesn’t actively promote related head-to-head trials, which makes people doubt the competitiveness of its products.
  • Investors’ trust in Alphamab Oncology continues to decline, mainly because the Company often missed the guidance/milestones it announced before. This will greatly affect the credibility of Alphamab Oncology.
  • The current valuation is expensive and has basically priced in all the positive factors. The Company is more suitable for short-term trading to capture the rebound rather than long-term holding.

Luckin(LKNCY.US) Initiation: Rising Challenger, Market and Business Model

By Shawn Yang

  • We initiated Luckin with a BUY with TP $40 because we believe Luckin is a rising challenger in a rising market, half way through a rising business model; 
  • We see room for Luckin to expand transaction frequency and transacting customers before expanding ASP in order to drive same store sales;
  • In the long run, we see coffee + western bakery to gain market share over tea house + Chinese dim sum in the snack + breakfast market. 

Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, China Hongqiao

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Atour (ATAT.US) Preview: Expecting Weak 4Q22 and Strong 2023

By Shawn Yang

  • Although the operating metrics are expected to be weak in 4Q22 due to the lingering of Covid effects, we expect the resumption of travel to stimulate hotel demands in 2023. 
  • We expect Atour to report its 4Q22 revenue at RMB580mn and OPM at 8.2%, both in-line with consensus. We expect a strong revenue growth at 60% YoY in 2023.
  • We rate the stock as BUY and maintain the TP at US$35.

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Daily Brief Japan: Mitsui & Co Ltd, M3 Inc, Zojirushi Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Mitsui & Co (8031) Q3 – Big Profit, New Bigger Buyback, Some Index Selling; and Competition
  • M3: Slow Down in Pharma Marketing a Significant Downside Risk
  • Unreasonable Company Opposition, but No Change in Outlook for Shareholder Proposals to Be Rejected

Mitsui & Co (8031) Q3 – Big Profit, New Bigger Buyback, Some Index Selling; and Competition

By Travis Lundy

  • Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP) reported Q3 earnings Friday afternoon during the market session. Like at Q2, they upped their fiscal-year forecast to well above Street consensus.
  • Also like Q2, they announced a buyback – this one an extension in time, shares, and money on the one already in place, raising the total Core CashFlow Payout Ratio.
  • This creates interesting index flows over the next several months, and other trading cos have live buybacks too.

M3: Slow Down in Pharma Marketing a Significant Downside Risk

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • M3 Inc (2413 JP) reported 3QFY03/2023 earnings today. Revenue increased 12.6% YoY to JPY64.6bn (vs consensus JPY62.6bn) while OP decreased 3.0% YoY to JPY22.0bn (vs consensus JPY22.8bn).
  • In line with our expectation, m3 has mentioned that it expects pharma marketing revenues to slow down with pharmaceutical companies cutting down their budgets.
  • Though m3 has made a large no. of M&A deals to pursue growth, we have not seen extraordinary growth in overseas biz and think there is significant downside risk.

Unreasonable Company Opposition, but No Change in Outlook for Shareholder Proposals to Be Rejected

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Zojirushi’s low profitability and numerical targets are at the root of the problem with this shareholder proposal, which required disclosure of cost of capital to verify reasonableness of the targets.
  • To ensure transparency of BOD, it would have required individual disclosure of director compensation, divestment of policy shareholdings, and elimination of takeover defenses, which are issues of corporate governance practices.
  • When % foreign shareholders reaches 30% level, companies tend to eliminate takeover defense. Since Zojirushi’s % foreign shareholders is 20%, the shareholder proposal will be very likely to be rejected.

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Most Read: Kakao Pay, Jiangxi Special Electric Motor A, Halcyon Agri, Newcrest Mining, Mitsui & Co Ltd, Yashili International Holdings, Pertamina Geothermal, Adani Enterprises, Bangkok Bank Public, Hesai Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, ASX, STAR50, China 50, NIFTY100, SMM SP, Pertamina Geo IPO
  • CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform
  • Halcyon Agri: MGO Triggered. Currency Translation Cuts Offer Price
  • Newmont’s Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)
  • Mitsui & Co (8031) Q3 – Big Profit, New Bigger Buyback, Some Index Selling; and Competition
  • Merger Arb Mondays (6 Feb) – Yashili, Kingston, Origin, Pushpay, Halcyon, O2Micro, Techno Associe
  • Pertamina Geothermal IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Bendigo/Bank of Queensland, Renault/Nissan, Keisei/Oriental Land
  • BBL/KBANK: Huge Outperformance as BBL Nears NVDR Limit
  • Hesai Group IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, ASX, STAR50, China 50, NIFTY100, SMM SP, Pertamina Geo IPO

By Brian Freitas


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform

By Brian Freitas

  • Three quarters of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 June.
  • There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 11.47% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 10.11bn.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last few weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.

Halcyon Agri: MGO Triggered. Currency Translation Cuts Offer Price

By David Blennerhassett

  • As expected, all conditions to the Sinochem/China Hainan Rubber (601118 CH) SPA have now been satisfied, triggering a mandatory Offer for Halcyon Agri (HACL SP), conditional on a 50% tendering.
  • Hainan Rubber holds 36%.  Sinochem has provided an undertaking notto tender its remaining 29.2% stake. Hainan needs 14% out of 34.8% available – or ~40% to tender. 
  • The takeaway disappointment is the Offer Price of S$0.413/share, down from S$0.435 at the time of the initial announcement last November, due to SGD weakness. 

Newmont’s Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

By Brian Freitas


Mitsui & Co (8031) Q3 – Big Profit, New Bigger Buyback, Some Index Selling; and Competition

By Travis Lundy

  • Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP) reported Q3 earnings Friday afternoon during the market session. Like at Q2, they upped their fiscal-year forecast to well above Street consensus.
  • Also like Q2, they announced a buyback – this one an extension in time, shares, and money on the one already in place, raising the total Core CashFlow Payout Ratio.
  • This creates interesting index flows over the next several months, and other trading cos have live buybacks too.


Pertamina Geothermal IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Bendigo/Bank of Queensland, Renault/Nissan, Keisei/Oriental Land

By David Blennerhassett


BBL/KBANK: Huge Outperformance as BBL Nears NVDR Limit

By Brian Freitas


Hesai Group IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Hesai Group (HSAI US) is looking to raise around US$170m in its upcoming US IPO.
  • HSAI is a manufacturer of three-dimensional light detection and ranging (Lidar) solutions. It has shipped over 103,000 Lidar units from 2017 to the end of 2022.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Hesai Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • HESAI Group IPO Valuation Analysis

HESAI Group IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Hesai Group is implied market cap of US$3.4 billion or target price of US$27.1 per share.
  • Our target price is 43% higher than the high end of the IPO price of US$19 per share. Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of this IPO. 
  • The company’s superior technology in the LiDAR product segment along with its global market leadership should help Hesai Group to successfully complete this IPO despite political risks related to China. 

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Newcrest Mining, Pertamina Geothermal, Hanwha Corporation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Newmont’s Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)
  • Pertamina Geothermal IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Introducing ARIRANG K-Defense, Sector ETF Currently in the Limelight in Korea

Newmont’s Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

By Brian Freitas


Pertamina Geothermal IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Introducing ARIRANG K-Defense, Sector ETF Currently in the Limelight in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • ARIRANG K-Defense Industry Fn ETF (449450 KS) shows the fastest AUM/ADV growth among recently listed sector ETFs. It is virtually the only one enjoying the influx of local retail investors.
  • The increasing trend of ETF AUM, coupled with the growing interest of local retail investors in the defense sector, will likely lead to flow improvement in each constituent.
  • The passive impact of some stocks in the upcoming rebalancing is expected to expand to 0.4-0.5x ADTV. Notable names in this regard are Hanwha Corporation and SNT Motiv.

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