Category

China

Daily Brief China: Li Auto, 3SBio Inc, Kanzhun, Tencent, MedSci Healthcare Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng Indexes: Rebalances Today; Recent Trading Data
  • 3SBio Inc (1530 HK): Hair Product Acts as the Savior; Marginal Growth of Flagship Drug
  • Job Hunting App Operator’s Earnings Fall Despite End to National Security Probe
  • Volume, Call Options, Tencent, and China Overseas
  • Pre-IPO MedSci Healthcare Holdings – The Investment Logic, the Business Analysis and the Risks

Hang Seng Indexes: Rebalances Today; Recent Trading Data

By Brian Freitas

  • The December rebalance of the HSI INDEX, HSCEI INDEX and HSTECH INDEX takes place at the close today. One-way flow is estimated at HK$8.4bn.
  • There are 3 adds for the HSI INDEX and 4 adds/ 4 deletes for the HSCEI INDEX. There are float changes for a few stocks as well as capping changes. 
  • There is excess volume on most adds/deletes post announcement and short interest has also picked up significantly.

3SBio Inc (1530 HK): Hair Product Acts as the Savior; Marginal Growth of Flagship Drug

By Tina Banerjee

  • Mandi, OTC alopecia drug of 3SBio Inc (1530 HK), reported revenue growth of 42% y/y in 1H22 and gained 70bps market share over the last six months.
  • With the resurgence of COVID-19 in China interrupting the regular operations of outpatient services at medical institutions, 3SBio’s performance is expected to be affected in near-term.
  • 3SBio is preparing to launch its new drug nalfuraphine hydrochloride orally disintegrating tablets for liver and kidney disease pruritus in China.

Job Hunting App Operator’s Earnings Fall Despite End to National Security Probe

By Caixin Global

  • The operator of Chinese recruitment app Boss Zhipin reported drops in third-quarter revenue and profit after restarting new user registrations following a nearly one-year suspension as part of a national security probe. 
  • During the three months through September, Nasdaq-listed Kanzhun Ltd.logged a net profit of 211.7 million yuan ($29.8 million), representing a year-on-year drop of 26%
  • The firm generated about 99% of its revenue, or 1.16 billion yuan, from sales of recruitment services to corporate clients — a 2.7% year-on-year decrease.

Volume, Call Options, Tencent, and China Overseas

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Volume picked up on Tuesday, 29th November, just slightly below the 15th November volume, the previous buying climax.
  • Wednesday’s Volume fell 10% with new price highs.
  • The erratic rather than trending Volume without capitulation volume on the 31st October price lows are hallmarks of a bear market rally.

Pre-IPO MedSci Healthcare Holdings – The Investment Logic, the Business Analysis and the Risks

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The large physician network is actually the cornerstone for MedSci Healthcare (MHH HK)’s precision omni-channel marketing solutions and RWS solutions, and also the key to support the overall investment logic.
  • In fierce competition, how to retain physician network for a long time, convert them into business value continuously and achieve the high growth trend expected by the market is challenging.
  • In terms of valuation, MedSci’s valuation could be higher than Medlive due to its stronger physician platform solutions business and medical professional network, but could be lower than HUAYIWANG. 

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Daily Brief China: Yum China Holdings Inc, Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group, Lygend Resources & Technology, iShares China Large-Cap (FXI), ABM Investama, Alibaba Health Information Technology, Sunshine Insurance, Weilong Delicious Global, WuXi AppTec Co Ltd and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance: JD Health, Yum China IN; Longfor, Xpeng OUT
  • CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: Four Changes in December
  • Lygend Resources & Technology IPO: Trading Debut
  • EQD | FXI (FXI US): – Could Chinese Equities Lead the Way Higher? Use Options for Delta-Revisited
  • Asia HY Trade Book – November 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Alibaba Health 1H: Cost Enhancements Support Margins but Sustainabaility Remains to Be Seen
  • Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Lygend Resources & Technology IPO Trading – Tepid Subscription but Potential Upside Remains
  • Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – Updated Peer Comp and Valuation
  • WuXi AppTec (603259.CH/2359.HK) – Interpretation of the Recent Proposed Disposal of A Shares

FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance: JD Health, Yum China IN; Longfor, Xpeng OUT

By Brian Freitas


CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: Four Changes in December

By Brian Freitas


Lygend Resources & Technology IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


EQD | FXI (FXI US): – Could Chinese Equities Lead the Way Higher? Use Options for Delta-Revisited

By Simon Harris

  • Chinese equities have been on a volatile path but are finally gaining some upside momentum
  • Dollar seems to have peaked and USDCNH is retreating with renewed optimism for the Chinese economy reopening. 
  • We revisit the trade and look at potential restructuring options

Asia HY Trade Book – November 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia HY Trade Book for November 2022 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.


Alibaba Health 1H: Cost Enhancements Support Margins but Sustainabaility Remains to Be Seen

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Alibaba Health reported 1HFY03/2023 results on Monday. Revenue increased 22.9% YoY to RMB11.5bn and reported an adjusted net profit of RMB350m vs net loss of RMB283m reported in 1HFY03/2022.
  • Adjusted operating loss for the quarter decreased to RMB30m compared to RMB586m reported in the same quarter last year.
  • Ali Health’s fulfilment and S&M costs were the highest among peers and cutting down these costs has helped the company reduce its operating losses.

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Lygend Resources & Technology IPO Trading – Tepid Subscription but Potential Upside Remains

By Clarence Chu

  • Lygend Resources & Technology (2245 HK) raised US$470m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Lygend Resources & Technology (Lygend) is a nickel trading and production firm with a portfolio covering multiple areas across the nickel industry value chain.
  • In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – Updated Peer Comp and Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Weilong Delicious Global (WDG HK), a spicy snack food company in China, aims to raise around US$200m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • According to F&S, WDG ranked first among spicy snack food enterprises in China, with a market share of 6.2%, and in the seasoned flour product and spicy vegetable snacks categories.
  • In this note, we provide an update to our earlier peer comparison and valuations.

WuXi AppTec (603259.CH/2359.HK) – Interpretation of the Recent Proposed Disposal of A Shares

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • WuXi AppTec announced its proposed disposal of A Shares again. Investors’re worried about the signal behind – Performance growth has reached certain limit. There’s the possibility of a turning point.
  • Such proposed disposal (regardless of share price) could continue to weigh on the valuation performance of the whole CXO sector – There is still “bubble” in share price.
  • In fact, Li Ge (Founder of WuXi AppTec) knows CXO industry much better than anyone, when he decides to resolutely reduce his shareholding, it is very telling. 

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Daily Brief China: Haier Smart Home Co Ltd, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Sunshine Insurance, Pinduoduo, Fangzhou Group, China Education Group, Theme International Holdings, Bilibili and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Dec 2022)
  • HSCEI Buy Entry Met
  • Sunshine Insurance Group Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Fastest in One Segment, Slowest in the Other
  • Pinduoduo: The Odd One Out
  • Fangzhou Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bear Case
  • China Education Group (839 HK): Shining Through
  • Theme International Holdings (990 HK): Getting To Know You
  • Sunshine Insurance (6963 HK) IPO – Index Inclusion Timeline
  • Bilibili (9626 HK): 3Q22, Growth Accelerated, Loss Shrank, 38% Upside

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Dec 2022)

By Brian Freitas


HSCEI Buy Entry Met

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our call has centered around buying a dip in HK at HSCEI 5,800 and HSI 17,000 for a final upside drive into December to form at top.
  • H shares (our long vehicle) – Met 5,800 long entry. 6,030 is the level to clear and hold above. PT at 6,600 just under the 6,700 MT barrier.
  • Macro trend remains down. HSI 19,400 represents an excellent short opportunity for Q1 weakness. December is touted to be a topping/ range ahead of a more bearish Q1.

Sunshine Insurance Group Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Fastest in One Segment, Slowest in the Other

By Sumeet Singh

  • Sunshine Insurance Group (SIG), a life, health and P&C insurance company, aims to raise up to US$1bn in its HK IPO.
  • SIG is an integrated insurance provider which offers both life and health (L&H) and property and casualty (P&C) insurance in China.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

Pinduoduo: The Odd One Out

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Pinduoduo (PDD US)’s 3Q22 mirrored its strong previous quarter with revenue of RMB 35.5bn (consensus: RMB 30.8bn) and OP of RMB 10.4bn (consensus: RMB 6.7bn).
  • CCP’s anti-monopoly drive and common prosperity measures are helping Pinduoduo to outperform the competition.
  • Nonetheless, we refrain from being outright positive on any of the Chinese e-commerce names with the economy heading into a slowdown and the lowest sector-multiple at above 12x FY+1 OP.

Fangzhou Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Fangzhou Group (FANGZHOU HK) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by Citibank, UBS and ABC International. 
  • Fangzhou Group is an online chronic disease management platform in China, considered the largest in terms of average MAU in 2021, according to CIC.
  • It focuses on common and chronic diseases such as hypertension, cardiovascular and respiratory chronic diseases, providing tailored medical care and precision medicine covering the full disease cycle for patients.

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Sunshine Insurance (SUN HK), a Chinese life and P&C insurance company, is pre-marketing a US$1.0 billion HKEx IPO, according to press reports.
  • In Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on Sunshine Life’s VNB margin decline and agent channel pressure; Sunshine P&C’s regulatory pressure on premiums and the group’s declining investment yield.

China Education Group (839 HK): Shining Through

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Education Group (839 HK)‘s 27.8% growth in net profit affirmed its solid fundamentals and minimal exposure to regulatory risks. We also welcome its resumption of dividends.
  • Management expects profitability will be driven by the 48% new student enrollment growth, potential for tuition increase and global education segment recovery. Consensus forecasts are currently too conservative.
  • Weaker 2H FY22 profit is due to higher depreciation and finance costs but will be absorbed with higher enrollment. Capex will be light and we also like its deleveraging move. 

Theme International Holdings (990 HK): Getting To Know You

By David Blennerhassett

  • Commodities trader Theme International Holdings (990 HK) is up 670% since the inset of Covid, and that is after declining 52% from the July 2021 peak.
  • A sharp increase in iron ore prices since 2020 resulted in FY21 net income of HK$1bn against HK$146mn in FY19. Net cash is currently HK$4.2bn, 38% of Theme’s market cap. 
  • You Zhenhua is Theme’s largest shareholder. Theme recently acquired a 6.6% stake in You Zhenhua-controlled Esteel, which in turn holds a 61% stake in BRC Asia Ltd (BRC SP)

Sunshine Insurance (6963 HK) IPO – Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • Sunshine Insurance (SUN HK) is looking to raise between US$859m-US$950m by selling 1.15bn shares in its IPO. At the top end, the company will be valued at HK$74bn.
  • All of the pre-IPO shares are Domestic Shares and there appear to be no immediate plans to convert them to H-shares. The only H-shares will be the IPO shares.
  • MSCI China inclusion requires a higher stock price or conversion of Domestic Shares to H-shares; FTSE inclusion is likely in June; HSCI and Stock Connect inclusion is expected in March.

Bilibili (9626 HK): 3Q22, Growth Accelerated, Loss Shrank, 38% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • The revenue growth rate rose for the first time in one year and a half.
  • Also, operating loss shrank for the first time in one year and a half.
  • We believe the stock has an upside of 38% for year end 2023.

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Daily Brief China: Kuaishou Technology, Jinxin Fertility Co Ltd, Hunan Zhongke Electric Co,Ltd., Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim, Sunshine Insurance, HSBC Holdings, Sihuan Pharmaceutical Hldgs, China South City and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • 2023 High Conviction: Kuaishou (1024 HK) Brings Much Promising Data
  • 2023 High Conviction: Jinxin Fertility
  • ChiNext/​ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: Materials & Industrials Take Spots from IT, Health Care
  • SZSE1000 Index Rebalance: Changes & Potential MSCI/​FTSE Inclusions & Exclusions
  • Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bull Case
  • EQD | HSBA Vs ICBC (5 HK,1398 HK): Trade a Relative Value Vol Spread -Revisited
  • Sihuan Pharmaceutical (460.HK) – About the Recent Business Adjustments and the Outlook
  • Morning Views Asia: China South City, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, Perusahaan Gas Negara Perser

2023 High Conviction: Kuaishou (1024 HK) Brings Much Promising Data

By Ming Lu

  • Short video companies are taking users’ time from other kinds of apps.
  • Kuaishou has a lot of promising data, such as active users, paying users, and time spent.
  • The operating losses significantly shrank in the past four quarters.

2023 High Conviction: Jinxin Fertility

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Jinxin Fertility is a leading IVF service provider in China. It has done a series of M&A in the past two years.
  • We examine the thesis of the company for a trade into 2023.
  • We believe the company has big potential to realize its synergy post acquisition and ramp up post expansion. More favorable policy to come.

ChiNext/​ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: Materials & Industrials Take Spots from IT, Health Care

By Brian Freitas

  • There will be 10 changes for the Chinext Price Index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index. Implementation is at the close on 9 December.
  • One surprise is the inclusion of Hunan Zhongke Electric Co,Ltd. (300035 CH) in both indices. Four stocks are adds to both indices while two stocks are deletes from both indices.
  • The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last 8 months but have given up some of the gains over the last month. There is a big sector skew.

SZSE1000 Index Rebalance: Changes & Potential MSCI/​FTSE Inclusions & Exclusions

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 47 changes for the SZSE 1000 index that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 December.
  • We see 51 stocks being added to Shenzhen Stock Connect (47 index adds + 4 existing constituents) and 83 deletions from Stock Connect (15 index adds + 68 existing constituents).
  • There could be 4 adds to the MSCI China in February and 11 adds to the FTSE All-World/All-Cap in March. Plus a bunch of deletes at the close 9 December.

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Sunshine Insurance (SUN HK), a Chinese life and P&C insurance company, is pre-marketing a US$1.0 billion HKEx IPO, according to press reports.
  • In 2020, Sunshine P&C ranked seventh and Sunshine Life ranked 12th as measured by original premiums income market share, according to the CBIRC and the Insurance Association of China.
  • The key elements of the bull case rest on Sunshine Life’s robust premium growth and high persistency ratio; Sunshine P&C’s underwriting profits in 9M22 and its high group solvency ratio.

EQD | HSBA Vs ICBC (5 HK,1398 HK): Trade a Relative Value Vol Spread -Revisited

By Simon Harris

  • On October 6th we suggested selling HSBC vol vs buying ICBC vol
  • We look at the trade performance both in terms of realised and implied vols
  • We consider the trading options given the convergence in vols

Sihuan Pharmaceutical (460.HK) – About the Recent Business Adjustments and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Sihuan is pursuing strategic adjustments actively, aiming to further improve the overall operating efficiency and financial performance of the Company. We summarized some business updates. 
  • Based on our analysis, Sihuan’s business transformation to innovative drugs and medical aesthetics may not end up well, despite that they are “a good story” for the time being.
  • Without persuasive long-term logic, share price of Sihuan could underperform. Therefore, considering the characteristics of Sihuan, we advise investors to do short-term trading – buy low and sell high.

Morning Views Asia: China South City, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, Perusahaan Gas Negara Perser

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co.,, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway-A, CGN New Energy Holdings, Meituan, Yashili International Holdings, Growatt Technology, BeiGene Ltd, China Gas Holdings, Indika Energy, Bosideng International Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CSI 500 Index Rebalance: 50 Changes a Side Leads to 12%+ One-Way Turnover
  • SSE180/​​​SSE380 Index Rebalance: Changes & Potential MSCI/FTSE Inclusions & Exclusions
  • CGN New Energy Holdings: Character Building
  • Meituan: New Reporting Structure Conceals Loss-Making Businesses and Hard to Assess Core Businesses
  • Merger Arb Mondays (28 Nov) – Yashili, Perpetual/Pendal, Nitro, Warrego, Chip Eng Seng
  • Growatt Technology IPO: Valuation First Look
  • BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 22Q3 – The Price of Being an “Outlier”
  • China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Still Not Meeting Expectations
  • Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Meituan
  • Bosideng (3998 HK): Decent Result Distorted by Impairment Losses

CSI 500 Index Rebalance: 50 Changes a Side Leads to 12%+ One-Way Turnover

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 50 changes a side for the CSI 500 Index at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 December.
  • One-Way turnover at the rebalance is estimated at 12.64% leading to a one-way trade of CNY 9.3bn. The Materials, Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors are net gainers.
  • 9 adds to the CSI 500 Index are deletes from the CSI 300 Index while 7 deletes from the CSI 500 Index are adds to the CSI 300 Index.

SSE180/​​​SSE380 Index Rebalance: Changes & Potential MSCI/FTSE Inclusions & Exclusions

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 18 changes to the SSE180 Index and 38 changes to the SSE380 Index that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 December.
  • There will be 10 deletions from the MSCI Standard Index and 26 deletions from the FTSE All-World/All-Cap indices at the close on 9 December.
  • Currently, 8 stocks meet the threshold/are close for inclusion in the MSCI China Index while there are 21 stocks that meet the threshold for inclusion in the FTSE All-World/All-Cap indices.

CGN New Energy Holdings: Character Building

By David Blennerhassett

  • A “valuation system with Chinese characteristics” has the media, ostensibly, discussing whether this implies a premium for SOEs and companies aligned with national goals.
  • In early 2020, SOE-backed clean energy play CGN New Energy Holdings (1811 HK) was subject to a potential privatisation from its parent; but it failed to materialise. 
  • During the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans (2021-30) period, China’s installed capacity for wind and solar power is expected double.

Meituan: New Reporting Structure Conceals Loss-Making Businesses and Hard to Assess Core Businesses

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Meituan reported 3Q2022 results. Revenue increased 28.2% YoY to RMB62.6bn (vs consensus RMB62.3bn) while reported an OP of RMB988m (consensus OP loss of RMB935m) for the first time since 3Q2019.
  • However, on adjusted basis, Meituan made an adjusted operating loss of RMB1.1bn (1.7% of revenue) of revenues compared to an adjusted operating loss of RMB7.7bn (15.1% of revenue) in 3Q2022.
  • Tencent announced that it will distribute majority of its shareholding on Meituan (3690 HK) to its shareholders in dividends and Naspers is expected to sell the Meituan Shares it receives from Tencent.

Merger Arb Mondays (28 Nov) – Yashili, Perpetual/Pendal, Nitro, Warrego, Chip Eng Seng

By Arun George


Growatt Technology IPO: Valuation First Look

By Arun George


BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 22Q3 – The Price of Being an “Outlier”

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Our forecast of the total peak sales of BRUKINSA, tislelizumab and the rest commercialized products is about RMB10 billion, which is not enough for BeiGene to turn losses into profits. 
  • BeiGene has the highest R&D/academic ability among domestic pharmaceutical enterprises,but BeiGene cannot be assessed according to the standards of Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises due to its fundamentally different cost structure/breakeven point.
  • The current market value has already priced in the success of TIGIT project to some extent. In other words, the upward elasticity may be limited. But BeiGene deserves long-term follow.

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Still Not Meeting Expectations

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • While China Gas Holdings (384 HK) expects better gas dollar margin HoH, there are still high profit uncertainties and its full-year operational guidance does not look exciting.
  • The expectation of flat to 10% YoY decline in new residential household connections is not encouraging. With 1H FY23 profit only amounted to 42% of consensus, we see downgrade risks.
  • Despite achieving positive free cash flow, its high gearing of 69.9% (+4pp HoH) is still very stretched relative to peers. We prefer Kunlun Energy (135 HK).

Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Meituan

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Bosideng (3998 HK): Decent Result Distorted by Impairment Losses

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Amid the challenging market, Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK)‘s 15% growth in 1H FY23 profit is decent. Excluding impairments, operating profit would have grown by 31.3%.
  • It expects FY23 gross margin to expand and further store optimisation to enhance operating margin. The introduction of highly successful ultralight down jackets is an added driver.
  • With 32% increase in online branded apparel sales, the channel will be Bosideng’s key growth impetus. For “double-11”, sales have outperformed peers significantly, showcasing its product strengths.

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Daily Brief China: ENN Natural Gas, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, Trina Solar Co Ltd, Alibaba (ADR), Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Meituan, JL Mag Rare Earth, Lifestyle International Holdings, Melco Resorts & Entertainment and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CSI300 Index Rebalance: The Surprises Could Outperform
  • STAR50 Index Rebalance: Adds Outperform Deletes in the Last Week
  • SSE50 Index Rebalance: In Line with Forecasts; Trades Performing Well
  • ECM Weekly (27th Nov 2022) – Growatt, Lygend, Sunshine Ins, Weilong, DPC, Daiei, Skymark, GoTo
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Meituan, Link Admin/Pexa, DTAC/True, Medley
  • Meituan 105 Buy Support
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (25 Nov): JL Mag Rare Earth, Joinn Laboratories, Hopefluent
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Chip Eng Seng, Mori Trust, Pendal/Pendal, DTAC/True
  • Asia Gaming: Despite Macau Woes, Melco Stock Is Too Cheap to Ignore Now

CSI300 Index Rebalance: The Surprises Could Outperform

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 15 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 December.
  • While most of the deletions are in line with forecasts, there are a few differences on the inclusions as the index committee has used its discretion to overlook some names.
  • The Industrials, Materials and Utilities sectors gain index spots at the expense of Health Care, Financials, Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary.

STAR50 Index Rebalance: Adds Outperform Deletes in the Last Week

By Brian Freitas

  • The index committee has continued to use a 6-month minimum listing history leading to five changes to the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) in December.
  • All changes are in line with our forecasts and there appears to be some pre-positioning over the last week as the deletes have sold off hard.
  • One-Way turnover is estimated at 5.34% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 3,766m. The estimated impact on the deletes is higher than that on the adds.

SSE50 Index Rebalance: In Line with Forecasts; Trades Performing Well

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 5 changes for the SSE50 Index that will be implemented at the close on 9 December. Passive selling on a few deletions is pretty large.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.07% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 3.36bn. Index arb activity could add to the impact on the stocks.
  • The adds have dropped over the last few months while the deletes have moved higher. There could be a reversion of that trend till implementation of the changes.

ECM Weekly (27th Nov 2022) – Growatt, Lygend, Sunshine Ins, Weilong, DPC, Daiei, Skymark, GoTo

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, things are picking up again going into the year end.
  • There were no large placement or blocks this week, although prior lockup linked blocks kept flowing through.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Last Week in Event SPACE: Meituan, Link Admin/Pexa, DTAC/True, Medley

By David Blennerhassett

  • You could imagine people covering their short in Meituan (3690 HK) now. The Hang Seng sell flow on 4 January 2023 is insignificant. But there will be more overhang later. 
  • If you buy Link Administration (LNK AU) outright, you are buying a package of three potential future takeout targets.
  • It’s not certain the scrip terms will continue as stated in the DTAC /True merger, but if they change at all, that would almost certainly require a new shareholder meeting.

Meituan 105 Buy Support

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Meituan (3690 HK) has some big resistance hurdles to overcome and will act as tactical sell levels to seek out the 105 buy zone.
  • A tactical bounce back to 165 is on the cards with 168/75 the high degree sell barrier. Secondary trendline resistance rests near 185 as the bigger sell zone.
  • The bearish rising wedge stands out as the dominant force. The support break warns of fallout after a bounce attempt back to 168. A weak bounce would turn near 160.

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (25 Nov): JL Mag Rare Earth, Joinn Laboratories, Hopefluent

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
  • These insights may flag those companies where shares have been pledged. Stocks mentioned include JL Mag Rare Earth (6680 HK), Joinn Laboratories (6127 HK), and Hopefluent Group (733 HK).

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Chip Eng Seng, Mori Trust, Pendal/Pendal, DTAC/True

By David Blennerhassett


Asia Gaming: Despite Macau Woes, Melco Stock Is Too Cheap to Ignore Now

By Howard J Klein

  • We calculated the intrinsic value of the stocks is ~30% undervalued at US$6.79 a share.
  • The strong Manila market recovery and planned on time opening of Cyprus property does not seem to be baked into the price at writing.
  • Macau travel bans will keep MLCO dead pooled, but value lies in its assets still at work

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Daily Brief China: Meituan, Growatt Technology, Agile Property Holdings, Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics, TS Group (Global) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • 2023 High Conviction Ideas: Meituan
  • Growatt Technology Pre-IPO – Still Looks Good, Updated Thoughts on Valuation
  • Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (25 November 2022)
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 25 November 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 25 November 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (25 November 2022)
  • TS Group (Global) Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Weekly Wrap – 25 Nov 2022
  • Weekly Wrap – 25 Nov 2022

2023 High Conviction Ideas: Meituan

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • Meituan is a leading “service e-commerce” platform in China, leveraging technology to connect consumers with merchants.
  • With the gradual re-opening in 2023, core local commerce will deliver better than expected result.
  • Tencent’s distribution of Meituan shares provides a good entry point. 

Growatt Technology Pre-IPO – Still Looks Good, Updated Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • Growatt Technology (1833969D CH) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Growatt Technology is a global distributed energy solution provider, specializing in sustainable energy generation, storage and consumption, as well as energy digitalization. 
  • In our previous notes, we looked at various aspects of the company’s performance. In this note, we’ll provide our updated thoughts on the company’s valuation. 

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (25 November 2022)

By David Blennerhassett


Chinese Property Weekly – 25 November 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Chinese Property Weekly – 25 November 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (25 November 2022)

By David Blennerhassett


TS Group (Global) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • TS Group (Global) (TS HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners are JPM, and China Merchant Securities. 
  • TS Group (Global) is a container shipping firm primarily focusing on the Asia region, which as  per the Drewry report, is the largest and one of the fastest growing regions.
  • As of Jun 2022, it had a total of 52 vessels, consisting of 26 owned vessels and 26 chartered-in vessels, with a total capacity of 107,907 total equivalent units (TEU).

Weekly Wrap – 25 Nov 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. China Jinmao Holdings
  2. Guangzhou R&F Properties
  3. Sunac China Holdings
  4. Evergrande
  5. Central China Real Estate

and more…


Weekly Wrap – 25 Nov 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. China Jinmao Holdings
  2. Guangzhou R&F Properties
  3. Sunac China Holdings
  4. Evergrande
  5. Central China Real Estate

and more…


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Daily Brief China: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd, JD.com Inc., Weilong Delicious Global, JD.com Inc (ADR), Meituan, Growatt Technology, Lygend Resources & Technology, iQIYI Inc, Alibaba (ADR) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • 2023 High Conviction: China Tourism Duty Free – All Ready for the Next Travel Wave
  • 2023 High Conviction: JD.com to Benefit from Discretionary Spend Recovery, Margin Progress on Track
  • Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – Latest PHIP Updates – No Growth
  • China Ecommerce- Still Can Chase
  • Top Tencent Investor Naspers Considers Selling Meituan Shares
  • Growatt Technology Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Profitability Still Accelerating
  • Weilong Delicious IPO: Remains in a Pickle
  • Lygend (2245 HK) IPO: No Index Inclusions Expected
  • Iqiyi (IQ US): Compelling Asymmetrical Payoff
  • US Vs China Technology, Alibaba, China Unicom, and New World Development

2023 High Conviction: China Tourism Duty Free – All Ready for the Next Travel Wave

By Ethan Aw

  • China Tourism Duty Free (CDF) is the largest travel retail operator in the world primarily focusing on sales of high-quality duty-free and duty-paid merchandise to domestic and international travelers.
  • As per Frost & Sullivan (F&S), it had 86.0% market share by retail sales revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2021.
  • With signs emerging of China finally looking to relax its COVID restrictions over the coming months, this will lead to a sales revival at its airports.

2023 High Conviction: JD.com to Benefit from Discretionary Spend Recovery, Margin Progress on Track

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • JD.com should have an outsized benefit from a recovery in Chinese retail sales as further macro stimulus and a gradual easing of China’s covid-zero policy stimulates demand throughout 2023.
  • Following a return to margin expansion this year, due to economies of scale and curbing operating expenses during a challenging macro environment, the longer-term margin expansion trend remains on track.
  • JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) trades on extremely attractive valuation multiples (PE, PEG, FCF yield) with net cash on its balance sheet equal to 32% of its market cap.

Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – Latest PHIP Updates – No Growth

By Sumeet Singh

  • Weilong Delicious Global (WDG HK), a spicy snack food company in China, aims to raise around US$200m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • According to F&S, WDG ranked first among spicy snack food enterprises in China, with a market share of 6.2%, and in the seasoned flour product and spicy vegetable snacks categories.
  • In this note, we will talk about the updates from the recently re-refiled PHIP.

China Ecommerce- Still Can Chase

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • Alibaba and JD stock prices have rallied around 20-30% in the past month, which was the low-hanging fruit for the investors.
  • With the full re-opening in 2023 in China, there is still upside for the sector. 
  • Ecommerce players will enjoy GMV growth acceleration and margin improvement next year. 

Top Tencent Investor Naspers Considers Selling Meituan Shares

By Caixin Global

  • Prosus NV, the Dutch unit of Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s largest shareholder Naspers Ltd., said it will consider selling the $4.6 billion of Meituan shares it will receive from Tencent as a special dividend.
  • South African media giant Naspers owns about 28% of the Chinese internet giant indirectly via Prosus.
  • On Nov. 16, Tencent announced a special distribution of 958 million Meituan shares to shareholders.

Growatt Technology Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Profitability Still Accelerating

By Ethan Aw

  • Growatt Technology (1833969D CH) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Growatt Technology is a global distributed energy solution provider, specializing in sustainable energy generation, storage and consumption, as well as energy digitalization.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance, peer comparison and our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we will talk about the updates from its PHIP.

Weilong Delicious IPO: Remains in a Pickle

By Arun George


Lygend (2245 HK) IPO: No Index Inclusions Expected

By Brian Freitas

  • Media reports indicate that Lygend Resources & Technology (2245 HK) has priced its IPO near the low end of the range at HK$15.80/share and will raise HK$3.67bn (US$470m).
  • Most of the cornerstone investors will be classified as non-float and the stock will not be included in the MSCI or FTSE indices due to low float market cap.
  • Importantly, Lygend Resources & Technology (2245 HK) will not meet the threshold for inclusion in the HSCI which means no inclusion to Southbound Stock Connect and no mainland flows.

Iqiyi (IQ US): Compelling Asymmetrical Payoff

By Eric Chen

  • Iqiyi’s 3Q results released on Tuesday disappointed markets due to dim growth despite  sustained profitability for the third quarter in a row.
  • “Iconic” turnaround actually put IQ on firmer footing almost on all counts compared to one year ago.
  • Stabilizing cost base, strong operating leverage potential and troughs in business and macro cycle spell for compelling asymmetrical payoff – limited downside VS. multi-fold upside.

US Vs China Technology, Alibaba, China Unicom, and New World Development

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The consensus of bottom in China Tech and China A shares continue to gain favour.
  • Bank of America is the latest to recommend selling US tech to buy China Tech.  
  • The Bullish China stocks call is predicated on reopening Pivot, yet the daily increase in cases and sporadic lockdown put the Pivot callers to double down.

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), Meituan, DPC Dash, Kuaishou Technology, Geely Auto, Sunshine Insurance, Growatt Technology, China Dongxiang Group Co and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (BABA US): Fighting Back
  • Add Meituan on Rumors of Social Benefit Payments
  • DPC Dash Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Lags the Leader, Remains Loss Making
  • Kuaishou: Domestic Business Turns Profitable for the First Time
  • Geely – ’22 Target Miss Already in Expectations, Catalysts for ’23
  • Sunshine Insurance Group Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Mixed Bag
  • Growatt Technology IPO: Growing Watts
  • China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Losses Narrowing Down, a Good Sign

Alibaba (BABA US): Fighting Back

By Steven Holden

  • Ownership in Alibaba Group Holdings is on the rise among active Greater China managers. 
  • Stock price below $100 a catalyst for active Greater China managers to buy back in, with Invesco, JP Morgan and E Fund among those opening positions
  • Alibaba remains well behind both TSMC and Tencent on an average weight basis and is the 2nd largest underweight in the Greater China region.

Add Meituan on Rumors of Social Benefit Payments

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • Meituan’s recent price decline was partly due to the rumors about the social benefit payments.
  • First, rumors are unverified statements. There was no such meeting at all.
  • Second, the social benefit payment impact is probably controllable. I think the recent price decline provides a chance of adding on the stock. 

DPC Dash Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Lags the Leader, Remains Loss Making

By Sumeet Singh

  • DPC Dash aims to raise around US$100m in its Hong Kong IPO. 
  • The company is the exclusive master franchisee for Domino’s Pizza in China, HK and Macau. DPC operated 562 stores across 13 cities, as of Nov 2022.
  • In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Kuaishou: Domestic Business Turns Profitable for the First Time

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) reported 3Q2022 results. Revenue grew 12.9% YoY to RMB23.1bn (vs consensus RMB22.6bn) while reported operating losses declined to RMB2.6bn (vs consensus RMB3.1bn) from RMB3.1bn in 3Q2021.
  • The company’s domestic business made an operating profit for the first time while there has been significant reduction in operating losses from the overseas business
  • Kuaishou’s share price moved up 7% during today’s trade following its earnings announcement and we think there is further upside to the company’s current share price.

Geely – ’22 Target Miss Already in Expectations, Catalysts for ’23

By Victoria Li

  • Sector headwinds including supply chain shortage and business interruptions from Covid lockdown is easing.
  • More new models in pipeline to drive sales volumes and earnings in 2023E
  • Valuation re-rating would be triggered with earning recovery, consensus estimate upgrades, Zeekr ramping up and potentially Zeekr spin off.

Sunshine Insurance Group Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Mixed Bag

By Sumeet Singh

  • Sunshine Insurance Group (SIG), a life, health and P&C insurance company, aims to raise up to US$1bn in its HK IPO.
  • SIG is an integrated insurance provider which offers both life and health (L&H) and property and casualty (P&C) insurance in China.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the updates from its latest filings.

Growatt Technology IPO: Growing Watts

By Arun George


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Losses Narrowing Down, a Good Sign

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Lower losses for investment business and sportswear retailing have contributed to a 48.4% reduction in losses for 1H FY23 at China Dongxiang Group Co (3818 HK).
  • The resumption of interim special dividend is a welcoming sign. Inventory clearance, store optimisation, cost reduction and growth at the PHENIX ski wear brands are positive drivers.
  • Its market capitalisation of HK$1.88bn represents a steep discount of 79% to its cash and investment portfolio of Rmb8.46bn, and this also means sportswear business is free.

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Daily Brief China: China Huarong Asset Management, Chindata Group, DPC Dash, Fu Shou Yuan International, Kuaishou Technology, ZTO Express Cayman Inc, Seazen (Formerly Future Land) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Huarong (2799 HK): Full Circulation & MSCI/FTSE Index Inclusion
  • 2023 High Conviction: Chindata’s Track Record & Rating Makes It a Takeover Target
  • DPC Dash Pre-IPO – The Positives – On a Rapid Expansion Spree
  • China Funeral Industry – Investment Opportunity with Both Alpha and Beta Superposition
  • Kuaishou (1024 HK): 3Q22, Promising Live Streaming, Better Margin, 39% Upside
  • ZTO Express (2057 HK/​​ZTO US): Solid Upward Momentum Stays Intact
  • Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources

China Huarong (2799 HK): Full Circulation & MSCI/FTSE Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • China Huarong Asset Management (2799 HK) has announced the full conversion of 8.358bn Domestic Shares to H-shares. The increased float could help the stock get added to the MSCI/FTSE indices.
  • Depending on when the conversion is completed, the stock could be added to the MSCI China Index at the February QCIR though inclusion in May is more likely.
  • There is a high probability of inclusion in the FTSE indices at the March SAIR – though it remains to be seen if that’s to the All-World or All-Cap Index.

2023 High Conviction: Chindata’s Track Record & Rating Makes It a Takeover Target

By Arun George

  • Chindata Group (CD US)’s 3Q22 results beat both revenue and adjusted EBITDA consensus estimates. Chindata raised its full-year guidance for the second time this year.
  • Chindata continues to attract rumours of takeover interest, most recently from China Merchants. Its track record of beating guidance, modest leverage and beaten-down rating make it a target. 
  • A forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.8x, in line with 21Vianet Group (VNET US)’s multiple implied by its founder’s offer (at US$8.20), would imply Chindata’s price of US$8 per ADS.  

DPC Dash Pre-IPO – The Positives – On a Rapid Expansion Spree

By Sumeet Singh

  • DPC Dash aims to raise around US$100m in its Hong Kong IPO. 
  • The company is the exclusive master franchisee for Domino’s Pizza in China, HK and Macau. DPC operated 562 stores across 13 cities, as of Nov 2022.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

China Funeral Industry – Investment Opportunity with Both Alpha and Beta Superposition

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China funeral industry has large growth potential.The total market scale would be about RMB400 billion if based on annual death toll of 10 million and per capita expenditure of RMB40,000.
  • Information asymmetry weakens the bargaining power of buyers. Administrative barriers raise the threshold of market access and weaken competition. So, related companies usually have high profitability and return on capital.
  • Changes in population structure would have a negative impact on most consumer goods, but demand of funeral industry would continue to rise. Investors would have both alpha and beta superposition.

Kuaishou (1024 HK): 3Q22, Promising Live Streaming, Better Margin, 39% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • There are three positive signs in online marketing despite the business slowed down.
  • For living streaming, both active user base and time spent grew rapidly.
  • The operating margin improved significantly to -13% in 3Q22 from -37% in 3Q21.

ZTO Express (2057 HK/​​ZTO US): Solid Upward Momentum Stays Intact

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • ZTO Express Cayman Inc (2057 HK)‘s 63.1% surge in 3Q22 adjusted net profit demonstrated its ability to thrive even amid the challenging operating environment.  
  • It is positive on FY23 outlook and believes industry volume can return to double-digit growth. ZTO is confident of market share gain, better cost management and stable pricing. 
  • We think its premium valuations are highly justified by strong cash generating ability. The increase of US$500m and lengthening of one year in share repurchase are very welcomed.

Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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