China

• The Hang Seng Index is the main benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to formulaically predict index changes.
• In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of getting added/deleted during the next review in December 2026.
• The results are expected to be confirmed publicly on 20th November 2026.

• PRC-Focused financial leasing play Haitong Unitrust International Financial Leasing (1905 HK)  (HUIFL) is suspended pursuant to Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. 
• Expect a privatisation Offer from Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK), currently holding an 85% stake. Guotai Haitong is presently in the midst of taking Guotai Junan International (1788 HK) private.
• As HUIFL is PRC-incorporated, this Offer may be structured as a Merger by Absorption, involving a Scheme-like vote for independent H-shareholders. There may, or may not be, a tendering condition.

• Haitong Unitrust International Financial Leasing (1905 HK) halted trading on 5 October pending a takeover announcement. Its parent, Guotai Haitong Securities, owns 85% and will likely take it private.
• A merger by absorption looks low-risk because no holder has a blocking stake and opposition at the AGM was negligible. A voluntary/delisting offer would face a tougher 90% acceptance hurdle.
• My valuation methods point to an offer of HK$1.29–1.65 per share, a 7.5%–37.5% premium to the HK$1.20 close. 

• Rapid B2B Pivot: MiniMax is undergoing a massive structural shift; its consumer-facing “emotional companion” story (Talkie, Xingye) has hit a retention wall, prompting a pivot to a low-margin, high-volume B2B “Token selling” model. B2B services grew 703.1% year-on-year to $73.9 million in H1 2026, making up 63.4% of total revenue, while August 2026 ARR reached $800.0 million (with B2B representing roughly 80% of that run-rate).
• Severe Pricing & Margin Compression: Despite the explosive growth in token consumption (July 2026 consumption was 20 times that of January 2026), fierce pricing wars spearheaded by ByteDance’s Doubao and DeepSeek have gutted pricing power. MiniMax’s H1 2026 gross margin was squeezed to just 17.9%, with adjusted net losses widening 111.2% year-on-year to $293.0 million.
• Capital Intensity and High Dilution Risks: With H1 2026 R&D expenses scaling to $297.0 million to fund its full-modality pipeline (M3, M3.1-Flash, H3 Video), MiniMax is burning through cash rapidly. Following its January 2026 Hong Kong listing (0100.HK), the stock has crashed from its March peak of HK$1,330.00 to around HK$242.80, evaporating over HK$300.0 billion in market value and turning any upcoming equity placements highly dilutive for existing shareholders.

• Alibaba Group has found itself caught in a selloff that has little to do with a sudden collapse in its underlying business.
• The company’s U.S.-listed shares had fallen roughly 27% year-to-date entering the October 2 session, while its Hong Kong-listed shares dropped about 2.1% on Friday as the Hang Seng Index sank 2.6%, marking its worst one-day performance in more than six months.
• The immediate culprit was a sharp surge in U.S. Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year yield climbing from around 4.6% in late August to above 5.3% by the end of September, its highest level in 24 years.

• CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical-A (300765 CH) CSPC Innovation Pharma aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.
• CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical is engaged in the research, development, manufacturing, and sale of caffeine, functional ingredients, consumer nutritional products, and biopharmaceuticals.
• In this note, we talk about the company’s past performances.

• Kingsware, an AI digital worker and enterprise agent solutions provider, has filed its prospectus with the HKEX. GTJA and BOCI are the joint sponsors.
• We look at the company’s core segments: the K-APA Solution and the Ki-Agent Solution.
• We then look at the company’s financial profile, loss-making status, pre-IPO valuation and investor backing.

• Linktel Technologies (301205 CH), an optical transceiver provider, aims to raise around US$300m in its H-share listing.
• Linktel is an optical transceiver provider with integrated capabilities spanning R&D and vertically integrated manufacturing. 
• In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• Shenzhen Transsion Holdings (688036 CH), Africa’s largest smartphone seller, plans to start bookbuilding as early as Wednesday for a US$400–500 million HKEx listing.
• It sells smartphones and feature phones under the TECNO, Infinix and itel brands, mainly in emerging markets, and is expanding into mobile Internet services and IoT products.
• The investment case is bearish: Transsion has weak pricing power, memory-exposed margins, and fragile growth outside Africa, while memory stockpiling has turned 1H26 free cash flow sharply negative.

• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK) has corrected 11% in the last few weeks, but its most significant last peak was in August 2025. 
• The main hypothesis of this insight is that the stock may offer a short-term asymmetric LONG opportunity, to profit from a counter rally.
• Analysis conducted with out quantitative model show that last week’s correction was shallow so the stock could go lower, but it should be bottoming soon. Broader consensus: strong buy.

• Z.AI (2513 HK) listed in January and is a member of the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) and Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII).
• Following placements in July and September, Hang Seng is likely to conduct an ad-hoc rebalance in October to reflect the higher shares outstanding and free float for Z.AI (2513 HK).
• Buying from passive trackers will absorb some of the float and could help stem the fall following the 74% drop in the stock price in the last 3 months.

• With free float not meeting the thresholds, Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK) missed Fast Entry to all major local and global indexes at the time of listing.
• We forecast local and global index inclusions for Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK) in a 3-week period starting end November that will require passives to buy US$1bn of stock.
• The passive buying is around 20% of H-share float and is partly responsible for Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK) trading at a 13% premium to Zhongji Innolight (300308 CH). 

• We noted Space Bunny Alpha, a stealth model which is likely MiniMax’s M3.1-Flash, and compared its available benchmarking with Chinese and US models.
• We analysed the sequence of model launches and placements at MiniMax and its competitor Zhipu, and the release cadence of Chinese labs.
• We think the M3.1 launch is imminent and could be followed by a placement, and we review how the stock traded in past launches for MiniMax and its comparable.

• With spot VLCC rates at U$1.26m/day, the market has significantly underestimated the net profit for COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (1138 HK) in 2H26. 
• The upcoming 3Q26 results announcement by end-Oct is likely to be a blowout, providing a positive surprise and leading to meaningful earnings upgrades. 
• At 24.5% FY26F ROE, its 12-month forward P/B of 1.64x is not stretched. Also, its decline in gearing from 77.4% in FY24 to 16% in FY27F justifies a higher P/B.   

• WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.
• We apply our quantitative models to each instrument’s trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.
• Most overbought:  Nikkei 225, Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS), Tokyo Electron (8035 JP), Advantest Corp (6857 JP) Most oversold: NIFTY, CATL (300750 CH), GLD, Zijin Mining, Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)

• Share price has been punished, as there have been plenty pre-IPO investors who took profit, although operating numbers are actually doing quite well. 
• Laopu Gold (6181 HK) is different from Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK), as the former is more of a global luxury house than a goldsmith.
• At 7x PER and a 10% dividend yield, combined with the calming down of the sellers’ volume, Laopu Gold (6181 HK) may actually offer a value. 

• DFI Retail Group (DFI SP) has completed a pivotal operational turnaround, swinging from a net loss of USD 244.5m in FY2024 to a net profit of USD 234.7m in FY2025, underpinned by gross margin expansion to 36.46% and disciplined cost rationalization across core formats.
• Cash flow generation remains exceptionally robust, with FY2025 operating cash flows of USD 1,099.2m and free cash flows of USD 986.1m supporting an attractive dividend yield of 4.52% and significant multi-year dividend growth.
• While high-margin Health & Beauty (Mannings, Guardian) and Convenience (7-Eleven) store formats continue to drive core earnings resilience, top-line grocery expansion faces ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, including cross-border consumption shifts in Hong Kong and intense regional competition.

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• The IDM model enables Sinomags to deeply participate in the exploration of customer application scenarios, promote technology validation, and define products, which forms a supply chain barrier.
• Technological comprehensiveness enables Sinomags to flexibly provide product solutions based on different downstream demands, rather than being limited to a single technology route.Profitability is driven by scale effect/increasing gross margin.
• Comfortable P/E could be 30-40x, between the global mature leaders and the high-growth new stocks in HK market, reflecting Sinomags’ positioning as “having outstanding growth potential but relatively small scale”  

• Defensive Dual-Listing Dynamics: Acrobiosystems’ resubmission of its H-share listing application on September 30, 2026, represents a defensive capital play to hedge against geopolitical fragmentation, establish a currency bridge for overseas M&A, and tap into offshore liquidity as its high-cost global footprint expands.
• Product Mix Drives Margin Compression: While core recombinant proteins maintain elite structural gross margins (91.15% in 1H26), consolidated gross margins have compressed to 83.07% TTM. This dilution is structurally driven by a deliberate mix shift toward lower-margin assay kits and technical services, coupled with localized GMP warehouse logistics.
• Divergent Growth Recovery: Despite a seemingly robust 31.43% YoY revenue expansion in 2Q26 to RMB 264.01 million, underlying recurring operational profitability remains weak (ex-nonrecurring net profit fell 5.3% YoY). This divergence highlights high overhead, localized commercialization costs, and massive share-based compensation overhead (RMB 12 million in 2Q26 alone).

• Strong but Fragile Market Position: Amicro holds a leading 2.2% market share in China’s single-modal robotics solution market and 5.9% in the multi-modal segment, making it the third-largest player overall with a 4.2% total market share in 2025. However, this highly fragmented market prevents any player from exercising true pricing power, exposing Amicro to severe margin pressure.
• Financial and Capital Allocation Headwinds: While revenue has grown rapidly to RMB 407 million in 2025, the company remains deeply unprofitable with a net loss of RMB 155 million in 2025 and a net loss of RMB 66.74 million in the first four months of 2026. Amicro’s massive R&D intensity (consistently above 30% of revenue) and complex “five-layer” platform strategy stretch its 273-person R&D team across too many hardware and software domains, diluting its competitiveness against focused chip-only peers.
• High-Stakes HK IPO under Chapter 18C: Having cleared its HKEX listing hearing on September 30, 2026, Amicro is testing investor appetite for “robotics-brain” platforms. The estimated US$100 million-plus offering is a critical lifeline to replenish its dwindling cash reserves (RMB 172 million as of April 30, 2026) and fund the necessary transition from low-margin single-modal home cleaning chips to high-margin industrial multi-modal AI platforms.

• In NWD (17 HK): Edging Towards A Bailout, I mentioned New World Development (17 HK) was reportedly in negotiations with the Hong Kong Airport Authority on its 11 Skies project.
• In its FY26 results, ahead of the national holiday, NWD posted an HK$18.3bn writedown as part of an early termination agreement of the project with the AAHK.
• NWD was expected to pay rent on 11 Skies of at least HK$1.8bn/annum from 2028 through to 2066; therefore, there is some consolation here from the termination.

• Amicro Technology Co., Ltd. is a robotics technology platform provider offering intelligent mobile robotics solutions, including inertial, single-modal, and multi-modal robotic solutions.
• Amicro Technology ranked third in China’s intelligent mobile robotic solutions market by revenue in 2025 and held 1,363 intellectual property rights.
• Amicro Technology reported losses for 2025 and the four months ended April 30, 2026, with gross profit margin decreasing to 23.9%.

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• Sovereign cloud demand and IT localization (“Xinchuang”) mandates are driving a rapid transition toward domestic GPUs like Huawei’s Ascend 910B and 910C, but significant hardware bottlenecks and software optimization hurdles persist as workloads shift from experimental training to scaled inference.
• DataCanvas faces substantial customer concentration risk, with its top five customers driving over 80% of revenue. This concentration is compounded by rapid customer rotation and customer-supplier overlap, indicating project-based transactional business rather than high-margin, sticky software subscription streams.
• The company’s capital intensive “sell-and-leaseback” or asset-heavy AIDC hosting model has resulted in soaring lease liabilities (reaching RMB 3.09 billion by July 2026) and total debt of RMB 6.55 billion, which puts intense pressure on its utilization rates to maintain positive cash flows.

• Acrobiosystems is principally engaged in the research and development, production, and sales of recombinant proteins, antibodies, and analytical assay kits, seeking a primary listing on the Stock Exchange of Hong.
• The company ranked first among China-based providers and third globally in the recombinant protein market by revenue in 2025, serving all top 20 global pharmaceutical companies.
• The company reported revenue of RMB838,118 thousand for FY2025, though profit for the year decreased from RMB147,552 thousand in 2023 to RMB120,042 thousand in 2024.

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• YUDO Holdings Co., Limited maintains a commanding 12.5% global market share in Hot Runner Systems (HRS), but its pricing power is structurally constrained by its primary customer base: low-margin mold makers who act as intermediaries and aggressively squeeze suppliers to preserve their own margins.
• The company’s stark financial discrepancy—consistently reporting a gross margin above 54% but suffering a statutory GAAP net loss of US$57.7 million and net current liabilities of US$92.6 million in FY2025—is a reporting artifact. It is driven by non-operating, non-cash fair value adjustments on convertible preference shares under HKFRS. On an adjusted basis, YUDO is highly profitable, delivering US$87.9 million in adjusted net profit in FY2025 and swinging to a net current asset position of US$65.0 million in 1H 2026 as the capital structure cleaned up.
• YUDO’s strategic moat rests on its 92.4% repeat customer rate and its 100% in-house vertical integration. It is the only global player manufacturing every critical component (heaters, thermocouples, manifolds, and valve gates) internally, protecting its technical edge while allowing it to deploy a multi-brand strategy (YUDO, Runipsys, Sino, Hans, Cherry) to isolate high-end automotive business from low-cost Chinese competition.

• Anode and Separator Margin Bottoming: Synthetic graphite anode pricing in China has hit a structural floor between RMB 25,000 and 30,000 per ton in 2026. This pricing compression has forced profitability thresholds to a high capacity utilization rate of 75% to 80%, making vertical integration of graphitization the primary survival mechanism for midstream players.
• Geopolitical Strategy and Sweden Scrappage: Shanghai Putailai (PTL) officially terminated its proposed USD 1.3 billion (SEK 13 billion), 100,000-ton Sweden anode facility in early 2025 due to unacceptable conditions imposed by the Swedish Strategic Products Inspectorate (ISP) under their 2024 Foreign Direct Investment Act. PTL has redirected its global expansion to a USD 297 million, 50,000-ton plant in Kedah, Malaysia, to bypass Western regulatory barriers while maintaining an offshore hedge.
• A+H Listing and Technological Moat: The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) approved PTL’s secondary listing of up to 269.33 million H-shares on September 24, 2026. This capital structure priority, combined with their 100% ownership of equipment maker Jiangsu KATOP Automation, provides PTL with a unique moat: internal machinery capex that is 30% to 40% cheaper than peers and proprietary tech to commercialize composite current collectors in partnership with CATL.

• At this early stage of the platform’s launch, registered users & user-generated games exceed 8M+ and 180k, respectively, and continue to climb, according to NCTY.
• User-generated content (UGC) is expected to further expand the games library, particularly as AI lowers costs and technical barriers to creating games on the the9bit platform.
• NCTY’s initial focus markets are in Southeast Asia, where NCTY is developing a network of brand partnerships under a strategy to integrate digital entertainment and bricks & mortar (BM) retail via an online-to-offline (O2O) business model.

• A perfect 100 GRESB score and approved science-based targets lower the cost of capital, making the portfolio a magnet for SFDR Article 8 and 9 institutional funds.
• Transitioning to a USD 100bn AUM fund manager unlocks massive value, supported by a USD 650m share buyback exploiting a steep net asset value discount.
• Exiting the build-to-sell segment de-risks cash flows and accelerates capital returns, while providing a hard yield floor through a secure US cents 25.0 base dividend.

• Sustained peak margins in 2025/2026 are cyclical, not structural: The 2026 oil price volatility and the onset of the 2% ReFuelEU Aviation mandate in 2025 have pushed Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) prices to over $2,600 per ton, but the industry remains highly cyclical. Historical oversupply in 2024 halved Neste’s margins, indicating that EcoCeres must be valued on a mid-cycle valuation framework rather than its current windfall earnings.
• EcoCeres holds a unique yield and feedstock flexibility advantage: Under CEO Matti Lievonen (former Neste CEO), EcoCeres has optimized its proprietary Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) technology to achieve an 85% total product yield and process low-grade Palm Oil Mill Effluent (POME) at its new Pasir Gudang, Johor facility. This offsets the impact of the elimination of China’s 13% export tax rebate on raw Used Cooking Oil (UCO).
• Johor expansion is the strategic bridge to a $5 billion IPO valuation: The 420,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) Johor plant, commissioned in October 2025 at a cost of $500 million, allows EcoCeres to bypass EU anti-dumping duties on Chinese HVO. This capacity doubling serves as the financial foundation for its targeted $1 billion Hong Kong IPO by the end of 2026.

• Youlife International Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: YOUL / 1759732D CH) operates as China’s largest blue-collar lifetime service provider, offering a vertically integrated platform covering vocational education, recruitment, employee management, and value-added market services across a nationwide network of 37 vocational schools, 146 curriculum development programs, and 180 domestic service branches.
• The company achieved a pivotal financial inflection in FY2025, with total revenues expanding 16.9% year-over-year to RMB 1,854.3 million (US$265.2 million) and net income rebounding to RMB 42.7 million (US$6.1 million), compared to a net loss of RMB 52.4 million in FY2024, driven by accelerated demand for flexible workforce management and vocational integration.
• Trading at an enterprise value-to-sales multiple of approximately 0.12x and a single-digit trailing price-to-earnings ratio (~5.8x), Youlife presents significant asymmetric upside potential within a RMB 2+ trillion total addressable market growing at a 13.3% CAGR, though realization is tempered by small-cap market volatility, gross margin pressure (10.4% in FY2025), and post-de-SPAC liquidity dynamics.

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• Putailai, a lithium-ion battery materials and equipment supplier, is seeking an A+H listing. CICC is the sole sponsor.
• We look at the company’s core segments: battery key materials and battery automation equipment.
• We discuss our preliminary thoughts on the company’s valuation based on the A-H premium.

• The Imminent “Takeunder” Reality: Despite Trio Industrial Electronics Group’s share price surging 567% since June-end to a market cap of HK$2.13 billion prior to its September 30, 2026 suspension, any upcoming deal will almost certainly be structured as a “takeunder” at a massive discount (likely near the tangible book value of HK$0.35 per share), mirroring recent transactions of HKEx-listed shell structures like Lotus Horizon and Superland Group.
• Siphoning Cash Ahead of Exit: While Trio is deeply in the red with a HK$20.45 million net loss in 1H2026, management continues to approve highly questionable connected-party consulting agreements with escalating fee caps and discretionary “gratuities” for insiders, effectively serving as a capital extraction mechanism for the founding group before they relinquish control.
• Regulatory Backdoor Trap: Any attempt by an acquirer to use Trio as a shell to inject high-growth assets (such as mainland new energy operations) will run directly into the HKEx’s stringent reverse takeover (RTO) and backdoor listing rules, creating a high-risk compliance bottleneck that could trap minority shareholders in a prolonged suspension.

• YUDO HOLDINGS CO., LIMITED is a global precision thermal management technology company and the world’s largest provider of Hot Runner Systems by revenue in 2025.
• Yudo Holdings reported 92.4% of revenue from repeat customers in 1H 2026 and maintained gross profit margins over 50% during the Track Record Period.
• Yudo Holdings reported US$380,816 thousand in revenue for FY2025, alongside a loss of US$(57,711) thousand for the same year.

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• The sharp decline in average selling price (ASP) from RMB 7.16 in 2023 to RMB 4.91 in early 2026 is not a symptom of terminal price erosion, but rather a deliberate structural shift. By transitioning away from material-heavy, low-margin external modular packaging and scaling production of high-margin monolithic TMR chip-level sensors, Sinomags successfully expanded its gross margin from 18.0% to 28.0% over the same period.
• The ongoing intellectual property warfare with Jiangsu MultiDimension Technology has been operationally neutralized. Although MultiDimension successfully petitioned the CNIPA to invalidate 20 out of 25 disputed patents, Sinomags systematically designed out the contested IP, shrinking revenue exposure of the disputed products from 12.0% in 2023 to just 0.1% by mid-2026.
• The IDM model via Germany’s Sensitec Mainz fab represents a high-fixed-cost operating leverage bottleneck. To achieve profitability and offset the high-cost German overhead, the Mainz fab must sustain a capacity utilization threshold of at least 60% to break even and 75-80% to generate meaningful cash flows, making the upcoming HKEX IPO capital allocation for the Wuxi base and Mainz upgrades a vital strategic pivot given that cash reserves dropped to RMB 165.0 million by late 2025.

• Global Market Leadership & Scale: YUDO Holdings Co., Limited is the world’s leading designer, engineer, and manufacturer of Hot Runner Systems (HRS) and precision thermal management solutions, commanding a global market share of 12.5% (ranking No. 1 worldwide in 2025) and 21.5% across Asia, alongside holding the No. 1 position in both automotive and electronics/home appliance applications.
• Superior Profitability & In-House Vertical Integration: YUDO achieves industry-leading gross margins consistently exceeding 54% (54.1% in 2023, 54.4% in 2024, 54.4% in 2025, and 55.3% in 1H 2026) and delivered an adjusted net profit of US$87.9 million in 2025 with an operating cash flow conversion ratio exceeding 100%, underpinned by complete in-house manufacturing across all core components and an exceptional 92.4% repeat customer rate.
• Structural Growth & Technological Moats: The group is strategically positioned to capture tailwinds from electric vehicle (EV) lightweighting, high-cavity medical and packaging tooling, and green polymer processing, leveraging 596 global patents, 9 global R&D centers, the flagship Suzhou Mega Hub, and an expansive global footprint spanning 83 locations across 39 countries.

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• DataCanvas Co., Ltd. is a leading AI computing service provider in China, supporting compute-intensive AI workloads and delivering on-demand cloud computing services.
• The company was ranked as the largest neocloud in China by revenue in 2025, with controllable computing capacity exceeding 29,000 PFLOPS.
• The company reported revenue of RMB588,383 thousand for H1 2026, alongside a loss of RMB(1,094,878) thousand and net liabilities.

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• Dominant Market Position: JD Health International Inc. (6618 HK) is China’s largest online healthcare platform and digital pharmacy by revenue, delivering RMB 79.65 billion in FY2025 revenue with an expanding gross margin of 24.78% and net profit of RMB 5.83 billion.
• Supply Chain and Fulfillment Moat: Backed by parent JD.com’s nation-leading logistics and proprietary pharmaceutical cold-chain infrastructure, JD Health maintains a defensible operational moat over digital and offline retail peers in direct pharmaceutical distribution (1P) and platform services (3P).
• Operating Leverage and Cash Generation: The business demonstrates compounding operating leverage, with net margin expanding from 4.00% in FY2023 to 7.32% in FY2025 and free cash flow reaching RMB 10.86 billion, providing robust balance sheet flexibility for strategic growth and share repurchases.

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• In the past two months, Lotus Horizon (6063 HK), WK (2535 HK), and Superland (368 HK) have been subject to conditional/unconditional (massive) takeunders. Expect the same for KFM (3816 HK).
• Now fellow contractor/manufacturer, Trio Industrial Electronics Group (1710 HK), is suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Its share price is up ~567% since June-end.
• Not a great look for the exchange. I’ve reached out to the HKEx to get their read.

• Moore Threads Technology (688795 CH) (MTT), a domestic GPU producer, aims to raise over >US$1bn in its H-share listing.
• MTT mainly engages in the research, design, and sales of GPUs and related products. It listed its A-shares just last year.
• We looked at its past performance in our earlier note. In this note, undertake a peer comparison and talk about valuations.

• In H1 and Q2 this year, JD Logistics’ top-line growth remained strong, growing by 20%+
• But margins have continued to erode in recent periods, probably due to changes in mix
• Down close to HK$10 per share, we believe lots of negativity is “baked in” to price

• NAURA ownership has surged seven-fold since 2023: 18.3% of active funds now hold it, with $2.4bn invested and holders running a committed 1.86% average position.
• The register is built on emerging markets: owned by 63% of China A-Share funds and 22% of GEM funds, with GEM investors leading 2026’s buying.
• Global and ACWI ex-USA funds hold nearly $15bn in NAURA’s listed peers but under $100m in NAURA itself. Breaking into global portfolios is the next leg.

• Source Photonics Integration as the Core Profit Engine: Following its consolidation in October 2025, Source Photonics has fundamentally reshaped DSBJ’s financial profile, accounting for 52.92% of consolidated net profit in Q1 2026. This vertical integration into high-value Indium Phosphide (InP) EML laser chips offers a structural margin cushion against severe ASP erosion in the pluggable assembly market.
• The Capital Allocation Paradox of the Hong Kong Listing: The targeted $2 billion to $3 billion Hong Kong IPO—which received CSRC clearance for up to 234.04 million H shares on September 29, 2026—is driven by onshore balance sheet deleveraging and funding the aggressive $1.2 billion domestic capacity expansion for Source Photonics. This heavy domestic spend contrasts with modest capital allocations for Mexico and Southeast Asia, highlighting a strategy that prioritizes technology-heavy domestic capex over rapid geopolitical footprint diversification.
• Divergent Cyclical Realities (AI vs. Mobile & EV): DSBJ faces a stark divergence between its hyper-growth AI optical and high-layer HDI segments (propelled by North American hyperscaler demand) and its legacy consumer and automotive units. While AI demand is structural and currently constrained only by EML chip and high-frequency copper-clad laminate (CCL) supply, the traditional FPC business (tied to Apple’s smartphone cycle) and the precision automotive metal business (tied to Tesla’s Mexico slowdown) are operating in late-cycle, margin-compressed territory.

• Shandong Linuo Pharmaceutical Packaging Co.,Ltd. is an established Chinese provider of borosilicate technical glass, specializing in pharmaceutical glass packaging and household heat-resistant glass.
• The company ranked ninth in China’s pharmaceutical glass packaging market and first in China’s household heat-resistant glass market by sales revenue in 2025.
• The company reported a decrease in profit for FY2025 and negative net cash from operating activities for FY2025 and H1 2026.

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• QL adopts a comprehensive business model of “independent R&D + full industrial chain layout + diversified pipeline”.Based on proprietary technology platforms, QL is able to form a structural cost advantage.
• The competition for GLP-1 is moving from the broad stage to the “efficacy, safety, convenience, and economy” refined competition stage, and QL is facing intense competition in multiple dimensions.
• With the comprehensive assessment of QL – “no commercialized product + strong pipeline”, and “first mover advantage + product differentiation”, a neutral scenario is HK$15-20 billion market value.

• A rare pure-play listing. EcoCeres, a Bain-backed Hong Kong producer of sustainable aviation fuel, targets a ~US$1bn IPO by end-2026, in a market created by law.
• It lists near a margin peak. The 2026 oil shock inflated SAF profits; in 2024, oversupply more than halved Neste’s margins. Value it on mid-cycle earnings, not the windfall.
• Price discipline matters. Law-mandated green sectors (solar, wind, renewable fuels) trade at 6–12x EV/EBITDA. The reported US$5bn valuation implies ~14x. Engage below US$3.5bn; pass above US$5bn.

• Top Hong Kong Stock Exchange listed covered call candidates for the month of October.
• The top 10 provide an average ~7.42% premium with a potential ~8.82% upside P&L if exercised.
• Investors with a neutral 1-month view on the underlying can seek to generate income.

• Anhui Sinomags Technology is an IDM in the magnetic sensor industry, offering one-stop solutions across diverse industries. The company ranked tenth globally in magnetic sensor revenue in 2025.
• Anhui Sinomags Technology ranked tenth globally in magnetic sensor revenue in 2025 and fifth in xMR sensor revenue, with revenue increasing 20.2%.
• The company reported a net profit of RMB52,584 thousand in 2025, following a net loss of RMB66,562 thousand in 2023.

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• Moore Threads Technology (688795 CH) (MTT), a domestic GPU producer, aims to raise over >US$1bn in its H-share listing.
• MTT mainly engages in the research, design, and sales of GPUs and related products. It listed its A-shares just last year.
• In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the Hong Kong listing.

• A consortium comprising CSI Properties (497 HK), Asia Standard International Group (129 HK), and Cheung Chung-kiu, applied to the Town Planning Board to redevelop “Harbourside HQ”  into two residential towers.
• The Planning Department previously indicated no objection to the application. However, Hong Kong’s Town Planning Board rejected the proposal last Friday.
• Vacancy rates for HK commercial properties remain elevated. 25% for Harbourside HQ. Yet, rezoning sets a precedent that cannot easily be reversed (as and) when economic conditions rebound.

• Shenzhen Transsion Holdings (TRAN HK), aims to raise up to US$500m in its A/H share listing.
• A smart device and mobile Internet service provider primarily engaged in the design, R&D, manufacturing, sales, and brand management of smart devices, with a core focus on mobile phones.
• In this note, we look at its PHIP updates and valuation.

• We update our March A+H Connect study with 18 ADDs since mid-March, 10 after stabilization and 8 on listing day, against 31 earlier events.
• After stabilization ends, H-shares now outperform A-shares for about 20 trading days after the Connect ADD, the reverse of the March pattern.
• On listing-day ADDs, Southbound holdings built faster than on ADDs after stabilization, yet most H-shares fell below the IPO price within 20 trading days.

• Asymmetric Trade Setup: Initiate a tactical long in Sino Land (0083.HK) before the October 29, 2026 ex-dividend date to capture VWAP-anchored price stability driven by the sponsor’s structural scrip election.
• Float Compression Catalyst: Tsim Sha Tsui Properties consistently elects scrip on its 58.11% stake, locking up massive equity, tightening public float liquidity, and engineering a highly predictable price support floor.
• Fortress Balance Sheet: Unlike highly levered peers, Sino Land boasts HKD 59.07 bn in cash, providing an impenetrable macroeconomic shield that virtually eliminates downside credit and refinancing risks.

• Suzhou Dongshan Precision A (002384 CH) said in a filing that it has received approval from China’s securities regulator for the Hong Kong offering.  The company may raise $2-$3B.
• The company makes PCBs and optical transceivers, both key to the AI buildout. Despite falling almost 40% from a June peak, its shares have more than doubled YTD.
• The company’s vertically integrated AI interconnect business—spanning laser chips, optical modules, and AI server boards—is viewed as a unique, differentiated position in the optical networking supply chain.

• Jieneng Investment’s offer for Zheneng Jinjiang Environment (ZJE SP) is at S$0.70 a share, a 19.7% premium to the undisturbed price. Two potential S$0.0225 dividends take the total to S$0.7225–S$0.745.
• The Chinese regulatory approvals look low-risk because the buyers are SOEs, a precedent (Canvest) got the same approvals, and waste-to-energy is a favoured sector. The main risk is timing.
• Holders of 83% of disinterested shares have given irrevocables, above the 75% needed. The shares have not closed above S$0.70 for over 5.5 years. This is a done deal.

• Sitoy announced full-year results yesterday. Operationally, they were below expectations.
• Its Net Current Assets minus all liabilities were HK$ .58 per share.
• Its book value was HK$ 1.51 per share and at 0.28 P/B

• Robotechnik Intelligent Te-A (300757 CH) has dual-listed H-shares (3757 HK) today.  The company operates in the automation equipment industry, primarily serving the PV solar cell and electronics/semiconductor industries.
• RoboTechnik ranked first among all brands in China’s industrial robot market by shipment volume in H1 2026 and has held the top position among domestic brands for eight consecutive years. 
• The company’s risks include: solar overcapacity, intense competition, regulatory & geopolitical issues, customer concentration, capital needs, rising leverage, and governance issues.  

• AI-driven optical infrastructure spend remains highly durable in the near term as hyperscalers transition to 1.6T architectures, but the cycle faces a sharp risk of demand deceleration by late 2027 due to aggressive capacity build-outs and localized oversupply of standard fiber assemblies.
• ADTEK’s high gross margins (39.5% in FY25) are defensible only on highly customized, low-tolerance multi-fiber assemblies where fast-turn manufacturing and low insertion loss (<0.1 dB) are required, whereas standard fiber patch cords are rapidly commoditizing.
• Extreme customer concentration (top five clients represent 90.6% of 2025 revenue) and geopolitical exposure (86.2% of sales to the US market) are the primary structural risks. The company’s aggressive shift to Vietnam and strategic raw material pre-procurement (104 inventory days in FY25) are defensive moves to mitigate these vulnerabilities.

• HK Connect’s September 2026 implementation had 53 ADDs and 15 DELETEs. We review the first implementation week vs history.
• ADDs fell in the first implementation week, vs the historical pattern of a first-week gain. Implementation day accounted for most of the average first-week drop.
• DELETEs fell further than the historical first-week decline, except Low-vel DELETEs.

• HS TECH September 2026 had 1 ADD and 1 DELETE. With the first implementation week complete, we review current-cycle performance vs history.
• Iluvatar Corex fell through the first implementation week after its bridge decline. The negative-bridge ADD pattern held, with a deeper fall than the historical average.
• Tongcheng Travel also kept falling after implementation. The negative-bridge DELETE pattern held, and its decline was deeper than the historical average.

• ESWIN Computing, a RISC-V oriented chip product provider, launched its Hong Kong IPO to raise USD 318m. CITIC and CSC are the joint sponsors.
• In this note, we look at the deal terms and provide our thoughts on valuation for the company.
• We analyze cornerstone and sponsor performance and assess the risk-reward of the deal.

• Mr Hung’s offer for Get Nice (64 HK) is HK$2.00 in cash plus a HK$2.00 special dividend. The gross spread is now 3.6%, and the vote is on 26 October.
• Mr Hung holds 51.67%. Blocking the scheme requires 4.83% of outstanding shares (10% of disinterested holders), and no disinterested shareholder appears to be close to that.
• The IFA says the offer is fair and reasonable. It justifies the 62.5% NAV discount by past trading discounts and the cost of selling assets. This is a done deal.

• The HSI Sep 2026 implementation included two ADDs, and the first implementation week is complete.
• Both ADDs rose on implementation day, unlike most historical negative-bridge ADDs.
• The first week split. Weichai Power ended down, in line with history, and Hua Hong Grace ended up.

• Overseas revenue is 60-100% more profitable, and interestingly, it has reached more than 50% of BYD’s total revenue for the first time. 
• The recent recall is not significant enough to dent the group’s overall business. BYD Company (1211 HK) has one of the highest overseas sales contributions compared to the peers. 
• The lower valuation, combined with a stronger operation including higher overall margin thanks to the growing overseas business, presents an opportunity to own BYD. 

• RoboTechnik, a photovoltaic and silicon photonics manufacturing equipment maker, raised HKD 4,961.3m (USD 632.5m) from its global offering and will list on HKEX on Tuesday, 29 Sep 2026.
• In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s fundamentals and the deal terms.
• In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before its trading debut.

• Transsion, a mobile phone maker focused on Africa and other emerging markets, is seeking an A+H listing. CITIC is the sole sponsor.
• While our previous note covers the fundamentals of the company, in this note we look at its 1H26 results, changes and valuation versus our previous note.
• The recovery held up in 1H while maket position weakened. 

• We compile our selection of companies across Japan, China & India based on bottom-up triggers in each company.
• This is a mid-quarter update on companies as most companies will be announcing their September quarter results in next 45 days.
• Based on these new results and guidance, we will update the list of top ideas accordingly.

• Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology (ESWIN HK) is looking to raise up to US$318m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Beijing ESWIN Computing (ESWIN) is a fabless chip product provider based in China that specializes in researching, designing, and commercializing hardware-software integrated semiconductor solutions built on the open-source  RISC-V architecture.
• In this note, we look at the company’s past performance and valuations.

• Goodbaby International (1086 HK) disclosed a scheme offer from Mr Song Zhenghuan (Chairman and founder) at HK$1.50, a 38.9% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final. 
• The offer looks light next to peers, at 0.38x book and 2.0x EV/EBITDA against an 11.4x peer median. However, the offer looks fair compared to historical trading ranges.
• The vote is low risk, as no independent holder holds a blocking stake. The last AGM showed little opposition, and thin trading makes it hard to build an activist stake.

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, GCash (Mynt) (GCASH PM) launched with a strong cornerstone book, while National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN) didn’t make much of a splash.
• On the placement front, GIC sold out of Sunway Healthcare Holdings (SUNMED MK), while it was the chairman’s turn to sell some more of Kanzhun (2076 HK) stock.

• The management of Tongda Group (698 HK) has decided to focus on the growth of its subsidiary, Tongda smart tech, thus less dependant on smart phone replacement cycle. 
• The subsidiary generated ~30% of the parent’s revenue but contributed to most of the parent’s operating profit. 
• Although the valuation gap presents a real arbitrage opportunity with the HK listed present a deep discount, the key lies in the not-so-difficult monetization potential to realize the gap. 

• August air activity largely matched July’s improved pace of growth (versus weak Q2)
• The improvement in domestic activity has been more dramatic than in outbound 
• Effectively, high fuel costs appear to be keeping travelers closer to home here in Q3

• Share buyback, dividend increase to 30 cents, yielding around 7.6% with PBR 1x and 0.4x price to sales are good catalysts to own Cafe de Coral (341 HK) .
• Greater Bay connectivity provides an opportunity to expand margin as the cost is lower, as well as to capture customer leakage when HK residents travel to China over the weekend. 
• Cafe de Coral (341 HK) benefits from the economic downturn when customers pull back from premium dining.

• WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.
• We apply our quantitative models to each instrument’s trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.
• Most overbought: KS200, META, Samsung Electronics, Tokyo Electron, SK Hynix, Komatsu, Nikkei 225, Hitachi Most oversold: Contemporary Amperex Technology, S&P/ASX200, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Zijin Mining Group Company 

• The 3D visual perception market is undergoing a decisive transition toward active stereo vision (e.g., Orbbec’s Gemini series), which is eclipsing older structured light and iToF modalities in robotics because it offers robust outdoor performance, zero motion blur via global shutters, and integrated edge-processing ASICs.
• Cognex’s $500 million cash acquisition of Intel spinoff RealSense on September 22, 2026, marks a massive consolidation wave in the robotic perception market, validating the high growth of Physical AI but presenting Orbbec with a formidable, deeply capitalized competitor in Western industrial markets.
• Orbbec is executing a sharp, dual-track strategic pivot to improve profitability, filing for a Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) listing in September 2026. This capital-raising effort aims to support their high-margin B2B sensor segment (which grew 52% in 1H 2026 with a 57.6% gross margin) while offsetting declines in their mature finished-device consumer business.

• Shenzhen ADTEK Technology (ADTEK HK) aims to raise at least US$500m in its Hong Kong listing.
• It is a provider of optical connectivity products and solutions.
• In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• Along with other Hong Kong stocks, Minth Group (425 HK) share price took a beating this year that is caused by market sentiment rather than fundamentals. 
• They launched a robot-making factory in Serbia, a JV in Indonesia, that in the near term drained FCF but revenues and earnings are still growing. 
• With PER 8x, EV/EBITDA 6x, and PBR<1, Minth has become a value stock that calls for  re-rating. 

• Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co., Ltd. is a smart device and mobile Internet service provider, specializing in smart devices, focusing on mobile phones.
• Shenzhen Transsion Holdings ranked eighth in the global mobile phone market in 2025 and reported a 21.9% revenue increase for the six months ended June 30, 2026.
• FY2025 revenue was RMB65,591,236 thousand and net profit was RMB2,605,236 thousand, with both decreasing from 2024 figures.

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• Weak breadth and uneven daily price action kept the tone heavy as Hong Kong equities continued to struggle for momentum in the shadow of Xi-Trump.
• Hong Kong’s implied volatility divergence mirrors a broader pattern also appearing across other major indexes and their constituents.
• Call participation remained unusually strong through most of the week as overall single stock option activity edged higher.

• Operating cash flow degradation and a massive working capital buildup—culminating in an H1 2026 inventory turnover of 313 days—directly caused the lapse of Onyx’s Hong Kong IPO application on July 16, 2026. Despite crossing the 1 billion yuan revenue threshold, the company prioritized short-term shareholder distributions over liquidity, paying out 90 million yuan in dividends while operating cash flow deteriorated.
• Onyx’s open Android ecosystem (BOOX OS) occupies a volatile middle ground. It offers superior versatility compared to Kindle and reMarkable, but suffers from margin compression as customer acquisition costs escalate, with sales expenses climbing from 9.1% to 13.9% of revenue to defend domestic market share post-Kindle’s exit.
• The company is severely bottlenecked by E Ink Holdings’ near-monopoly on e-paper film. This forces Onyx into defensive raw material stockpiling to ensure supply, which in turn spiked their gearing ratio to 253% in H1 2026 as they relied on short-term bank borrowings to fund working capital.

• China-Listed express firms reported softer volume growth in August (vs July and Q2)
• SF Holding and Yunda Holding continued to lose share in August; STO Express gained
• We believe softer volume growth in August could indicate weak online retail activity

• Orbbec Inc. is a global leader pioneering 3D visual perception solutions, building foundational platforms for Physical AI and robotic intelligence, serving customers across robotics and AIoT.
• Orbbec Inc. was ranked first in the global robot 3D visual perception market in 2025, holding a 29.0% market share by revenue.
• The company reported a net profit of RMB127,621 thousand in FY2025, following net losses in FY2023 and FY2024.

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• Pateo’s hardware-software decoupling is hitting a commercial ceiling, forcing the company into highly dilutive capital raises and high-risk upstream acquisitions to survive. The ongoing domestic EV price war has crushed hardware-integrated smart cockpit margins, and software-only monetization is near-impossible in China. Pateo’s RMB 1.4 billion acquisition of a 70% stake in Chengdu Meenyi Electronic (CME) is a desperate land-grab for higher gross margins, shifting the story from vehicle connectivity to AI computing.
• The company’s balance sheet is under severe liquidity strain, with RMB 2.4 billion in short-term bank loans vs. only RMB 1.54 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2026. This gap, compounded by the heavy cash outflows required for the CME and Guangzhou Seagull transactions, explains why Pateo has executed three dilutive equity placements in 2026 alone, raising roughly HK$1 billion.
• The recent open-market share purchases by CFO Zhang Fukai, Executive Director Lai Weilin, and Procurement VP Liang Chen are tactical defensive PR signals ahead of the pre-IPO lockup release. While management has publicly emphasized these purchases as evidence of fundamental undervaluation, the actual volumes are nominal and intended to preempt market panic ahead of the massive H-share lockup expiration on September 30, 2026.