Roger Xie

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US)</a> delivered a better-than-fear 1Q22 results helped by its strong execution. KFC delivered solid margins above expectations given its store format and take-out service.</li>
<li>China COVID outbreak is getting worst, we expect 3000 stores will cancel dine-in service in April (compared with 1700 stores in March). Yum China might have deeper loss in 2Q22. </li>
<li>We continue to think Yum China is the best-run restaurant chain in China. It has resilient business model to navigate through pandemic. Risk/reward is more compelling to own Yum China.</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US)</a> board has expanded share repurchase program by $1bn to total $2.4bn amid the tougher operating environment due to Omicron outbreak.</li>
<li>Omicron outbreak spread widely in March across China, Yum China saw its March first 2-week SSSG is down 20% year-over-year and 1Q22 operating profit will likely be down 40-50% year-over-year. </li>
<li>We continue to think Yum China is the best-run restaurant chain in China. It has resilient business model to navigate through pandemic. Risk/reward is more compelling to own Yum China.</li>
</ul>

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>Yum China opened 563 stores in the fourth quarter and 1,806 stores in all 2021, bringing its total store count to 11,788 at the end of last year</li>
<li>While the brisk rate of new store openings helped Yum China achieve revenue growth in Q4 2021, the persistent weakness in SSSG and restaurant margins are causes of concern</li>
<li>Investors should monitor whether store expansion is accompanied by a corresponding decline in key operating metrics. If so, there could be parallels with Haidilao</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US)</a> reported below-expectation 4Q21 earnings. Same store sale growth was down 11% year-over-year due to recent resurging of COVID cases in several regions of China.</li>
<li>Yum China has leveraged its digital orders and delivery service to alleviate the impacts. Based on its operation in 1Q20, we believe Yum China could recover quickly from current outbreak.</li>
<li>We think risk/reward is more compelling to own <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US)</a> as it has resilient business model and proven records to navigate through pandemic. </li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>The latest wave of COVID-19 infections cast a shadow on store traffic recovery for transportation hubs. Looking forward, there will likely more tightening preventive measurement into Chinese New Year.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US)</a> has corrected 30% from its high since July due to the resurge of COVID cases in several cities in China 2nd half of year. </li>
<li>We think risk/reward is more compelling to own <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US)</a> as it has resilient business model and proven records to navigate through pandemic. </li>
</ul>

United States

Yum China Holding, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, manages chain of restaurants and offers pizza, entrees, pasta, rice dishes, appetizers, soups, vegetables, beverages, and desserts. Yum China Holding conducts its business worldwide.

Yum China Holdings, Inc - YUMC US

Description