Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Australia: Bell Financial and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Bell Financial Group Ltd – Strong start to FY24 with Q1 PBT +60%


Bell Financial Group Ltd – Strong start to FY24 with Q1 PBT +60%

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Bell Financial Group Ltd (ASX:BFG) is a diversified provider of financial products and software solutions within, and increasingly outside, its traditional full-service stockbroking business.
  • A Q1 FY24 trading update provided at the group’s AGM on 19 April points to revenue growth of 17% and PBT growth of 60% to $9.3m, with all divisions said to be profitable.
  • This compares to a RaaS H1 FY24 PBT growth estimate of 69%, placing the group on track to achieve our H1 estimates.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Significant Developments Emerged Today for Korea’s Value-Up


Significant Developments Emerged Today for Korea’s Value-Up

By Sanghyun Park

  • Deputy PM Choi Sang-mok commits to aggressively pursue separate taxation of dividend income, marking a shift towards concrete action for value-up policies.
  • Ever since the introduction of the Value-up policy earlier this year, the primary incentive championed by the local capital market has been the separate taxation of dividend income.
  • Hence, the government’s official commitment to this marks a crucial step in reshaping the Value-up momentum.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT, Vedanta Resources


Morning Views Asia: Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT, Vedanta Resources

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief United States: United States Steel and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Nippon Steel/United States Steel Corp


Nippon Steel/United States Steel Corp

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On 18 April, a White House official said that any review of the deal between Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) and United States Steel (X US) by CFIUS will continue as scheduled.
  • X shares trade at ~5.2x on NTM IBES-consensus EBITDA given priced-in deal risk vs. implied 7x at the time of the winning NSC’s bid, and look attractive relative to comparables.
  • There remains a possibility that Nippon could finalize the takeover after the U.S. presidential election, presenting potential upside.

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Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index, Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24
  • Morning Views Asia: Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT, Vedanta Resources


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24

By Sankalp Singh

  • Unprecedented levels of FII option-buying & increasing geo-political risk causing IVs to re-price higher.
  • Skew/ Smile characteristics of the Vol Surface reflect increased risk aversion but not it panic mode – yet.
  • BankNifty IVs exhibiting unusual “kink-in-the-curve”. Enter barbell structures to position for reversion in curve shape.

Morning Views Asia: Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT, Vedanta Resources

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Japan: Shinko Electric Industries, Kokusai Electric , Silver, Shift Inc, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (22 Apr) – Shinko, Inageya, C&F Logistics, Hollysys, Azure, Qantm IP, Tietto
  • ECM Weekly (22nd Apr 2024) – Kokusai, J&T, Voda IDEA, ChaPanda, Cloudchain, Johor Plant, Aadhar
  • Silver Measured Move to 35.50
  • Shift: On a Road to Recovery
  • Stricter Voting Criteria for Domestic Asset Managers May Aim to Enhance Value Through Engagement


Merger Arb Mondays (22 Apr) – Shinko, Inageya, C&F Logistics, Hollysys, Azure, Qantm IP, Tietto

By Arun George


ECM Weekly (22nd Apr 2024) – Kokusai, J&T, Voda IDEA, ChaPanda, Cloudchain, Johor Plant, Aadhar

By Sumeet Singh


Silver Measured Move to 35.50

By Douglas Busch

  • S&P 500 looks vulnerable. Maintain large cash positions for forseeable future.
  • US Dollar bull flagging and may put pressure on equities in near term.
  • Nikkei at inflection point. Bulls must stand up here to defend.

Shift: On a Road to Recovery

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Shift Inc (3697 JP) ’s share price has been down more than 50% YTD with the release of 1QFY08/2024 results in January 2024 which saw a drop in margins.
  • The company’s aggressive investment in HR and system reinforcement led to a decline in margins, however, margins saw a QoQ improvement in 2QFY08/2024.
  • Despite there being an improvement in 2Q and the company expecting the margins to bounce back in 4Q, Shift’s share price has continued to fall.

Stricter Voting Criteria for Domestic Asset Managers May Aim to Enhance Value Through Engagement

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Stricter voting standards for domestic investment managers seem aimed at increasing value through engagement for companies that show little improvement in efforts to improve stock price and return on capital.
  • Stricter voting standards for policy shareholding ratios of domestic investment management companies are expected to push companies to consider reducing cross-shareholdings. Reference to deemed shareholdings is also commendable.
  • Since engagement of overseas investors has been effective in increasing value of companies, engagement by Japanese investment managers more seriously than before will contribute to enhancing the value of companies.

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Daily Brief China: JD.com , Innovent Biologics Inc, Shanghai Tofflon Science A, S.F. Holding, Xunfei Healthcare Technology, CanSino Biologics and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • JD.com (JD US / 9618 HK):  Announced 2.8% Share Buyback In 1Q24 + My 1Q24 Preview
  • Innovent Biologics(1801 HK)– More than Just a GLP-1 Play
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.21) – M&As in Biotech, Capital Is Bullish on Non-Tumor Sectors, Tofflon
  • Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March ASPs Fell, Again | Volumes Moderated, Including X-Border
  • Xunfei Healthcare Technology Pre-IPO – Appears to Be in the Early Stages of Commercialization
  • CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) – 2024 Is the Best Time to Bottom-Fish This Stock


JD.com (JD US / 9618 HK):  Announced 2.8% Share Buyback In 1Q24 + My 1Q24 Preview

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • JD.com (9618 HK) announced this week that it has repurchased 2.8% of the outstanding shares of the company in the first quarter of 2024. 
  • Improved shareholder returns is a key thesis for the stock, given that there is little market expectation on such given limited track record.
  • A positive catalyst on full year performance could be the government’s announced stimulus policy for home appliance in April this year (trading old for new).

Innovent Biologics(1801 HK)– More than Just a GLP-1 Play

By Avien Pillay

  • Innovent is most well-known as the developer of mazdutide in China, however this is overshadowing a strong portfolio of oncology drugs in a very high growth market.
  • China’s approach to healthcare is being defined by having the biggest diabetic population, over 4 million new cancer cases per year, and over 100 million living with obesity.
  • We expect the valuation gap between the two first-to-market GLP-1 drugs, and competition to close. Oncology drug sales and valuations will continue its growth trajectory.

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.21) – M&As in Biotech, Capital Is Bullish on Non-Tumor Sectors, Tofflon

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • We have seen four transactions of MNC acquiring Chinese Biotech companies. However, this does not mean that domestic big pharmaceutical companies will also participate in the acquisition of small Biotech.
  • The underlying investment logic of innovative drug is undergoing changes. Non-oncology fields, such as autoimmunity, CNS, endocrine metabolism, and ophthalmology will be the main hot directions of investment and R&D.
  • Shanghai Tofflon Science A (300171 CH) is still in downward trend. We’re not optimistic about its 2023 results. We don’t recommend bottom-fish this stock unless there is a major catalyst.

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March ASPs Fell, Again | Volumes Moderated, Including X-Border

By Daniel Hellberg

  • ASPs remain under pressure as STO, J&T gain volume share in ground segment
  • March showed a surprising slowdown in pace of international volume growth
  • We believe Q423 and Q124 company-level profitability will mostly disappoint

Xunfei Healthcare Technology Pre-IPO – Appears to Be in the Early Stages of Commercialization

By Clarence Chu

  • Xunfei Healthcare Technology (XHT HK) is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Xunfei Healthcare Technology (Xunfei), a iFlytek (Shenzhen-listed) spin-off, primarily provides solutions covering the full healthcare service cycle, with products and services mainly catered towards major stakeholders in the healthcare industry.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) – 2024 Is the Best Time to Bottom-Fish This Stock

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • We would see CanSino’s performance pick up obviously in 2024 – Revenue of meningococcal vaccines would up about 50% YoY. Both R&D and SG&A expenses would show a declining trend.
  • Starting from 2025, CanSino’s product matrix will become more diverse.Its financial performance will enter a virtuous cycle. Revenue in 2025 may exceed expectations, depending on the approval time of PCV13i.
  • CanSino is one of the few domestic vaccine companies that has ability to explore the international market. Mispricing/expectation differences in the market will give investors the opportunity for excess returns.

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Daily Brief Industrials: S.F. Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March ASPs Fell, Again | Volumes Moderated, Including X-Border


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March ASPs Fell, Again | Volumes Moderated, Including X-Border

By Daniel Hellberg

  • ASPs remain under pressure as STO, J&T gain volume share in ground segment
  • March showed a surprising slowdown in pace of international volume growth
  • We believe Q423 and Q124 company-level profitability will mostly disappoint

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Daily Brief Utilities: Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT, Vedanta Resources


Morning Views Asia: Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT, Vedanta Resources

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Shinko Electric Industries, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Kokusai Electric , Shift Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (22 Apr) – Shinko, Inageya, C&F Logistics, Hollysys, Azure, Qantm IP, Tietto
  • TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Breaks Down From Extreme, UMC Discount Near Historical Low
  • ECM Weekly (22nd Apr 2024) – Kokusai, J&T, Voda IDEA, ChaPanda, Cloudchain, Johor Plant, Aadhar
  • Shift: On a Road to Recovery
  • TSMC, ASML, VAT Group, and Alphawave Earnings


Merger Arb Mondays (22 Apr) – Shinko, Inageya, C&F Logistics, Hollysys, Azure, Qantm IP, Tietto

By Arun George


TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC and ASML reported 1Q24 results last week; both stocks have fallen post results, impacted by global concerns despite a strong outlook for these two leaders into 2025E.
  • TSMC guided for strong growth not just in 2024E, but if one digs into management’s comments, they actually provided strong visibility into their 2028E internal revenue expectations.
  • For ASML, its EUV product business is the key indicator to watch. We believe TSMC shares will continue to re-rate even through a period of global economic softness.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Breaks Down From Extreme, UMC Discount Near Historical Low

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +9.2% Premium, Major Breakdown From Previous Historically Extreme High
  • UMC: -1.9% Discount, Is Near Low End of Historical Range
  • ASE: +10.4%; ADR Short Interest Jumps to Very High Level vs. History

ECM Weekly (22nd Apr 2024) – Kokusai, J&T, Voda IDEA, ChaPanda, Cloudchain, Johor Plant, Aadhar

By Sumeet Singh


Shift: On a Road to Recovery

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Shift Inc (3697 JP) ’s share price has been down more than 50% YTD with the release of 1QFY08/2024 results in January 2024 which saw a drop in margins.
  • The company’s aggressive investment in HR and system reinforcement led to a decline in margins, however, margins saw a QoQ improvement in 2QFY08/2024.
  • Despite there being an improvement in 2Q and the company expecting the margins to bounce back in 4Q, Shift’s share price has continued to fall.

TSMC, ASML, VAT Group, and Alphawave Earnings

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • It’s time for the main event: earnings are upon us. As is customary, let’s start with TSMC, move to ASML and Alphawave, and then discuss VAT Group.
  • TSM revenue is above guidance, gross margins are a bit ahead of the midpoint, and operating margins are at the high end of guidance.
  • First, while this is a good result, semiconductors are due for a correction. I wrote about this in March, and SOXX has quietly crept downwards since then.

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