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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Australia: Orecorp Ltd, Southern Cross Media, ADX Energy Ltd, EML Payments Limited, Health And Happiness (H&H), Monash Ivf and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Orecorp Should Now Back Perseus’ Offer
  • Southern Cross Media (SXL AU): Re-Engages with ARN Media (A1N AU)/Anchorage on Revised Terms
  • ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Very high impact exploration well encounters gas and condensate in Austria
  • EML Payments – Sale of Sentenial agreed
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Nickel Industries
  • Monash Ivf (MVF AU): Secular Industry Tailwinds+ Strong Market Positioning= Multi-Year Growth


Orecorp Should Now Back Perseus’ Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in August, Silvercorp  (SVM CN) bid A$0.15/share and 0.967 scrip for Orecorp (ORR AU); and secured board support after bumping the cash portion to A$0.19/share via an Off-market Offer.
  • Perseus Mining (PRU AU) countered on the 22 January with a A$0.55/share Offer, which was rejected by Orecorp, ostensibly over concerns Perseus had not secured Tanzanian Fair Competition Commission approval.
  • That regulatory approval has now been satisfied. The Offers for both Perseus and Silvercorp are conditional on 50.1% acceptance hurdles. I think Perseus’ all-cash Offer is superior.

Southern Cross Media (SXL AU): Re-Engages with ARN Media (A1N AU)/Anchorage on Revised Terms

By Arun George

  • Southern Cross Media (SXL AU) is re-engaging with ARN Media (A1N AU)/Anchorage at A$0.296 cash per share and 0.870 A1N shares per SXL share. Eligible shareholders get franking credits worth A$0.127.
  • SXL’s re-engagement was driven by major shareholders, who are also supporting a motion to remove Mr Rob Murray as chairman due to the glacial pace of negotiation.
  • While the offer is light compared to long-term adjusted exchange ratios and historical prices, large shareholders are supportive. Shares are trading through terms due to the large franking credits.  

ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Very high impact exploration well encounters gas and condensate in Austria

By Auctus Advisors

  • The Welchau well (ADX WI: 75%) encountered 115 m of liquids-rich gas shows in the primary target formation (Steinalm Formation) between 1452 m and 1567 m.
  • The deepest gas shows were encountered at a depth of 1645 m.
  • The well has reached TD at 1733 m.

EML Payments – Sale of Sentenial agreed

By Edison Investment Research

EML Payments has agreed to sell Sentenial to GoCardless for an enterprise value of €32.75m/A$54.1m. As Sentenial is currently loss-making, the disposal will be earnings and cashflow accretive to EML in year one. Proceeds from the sale will be used to reduce debt and strengthen EML’s balance sheet. This disposal combined with the liquidation of PFS Card Services Ireland (PCSIL) leaves EML as a more focused group specialising in prepaid cards, with all remaining businesses profitable and cash generating.


Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Nickel Industries

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Monash Ivf (MVF AU): Secular Industry Tailwinds+ Strong Market Positioning= Multi-Year Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Monash Ivf (MVF AU) delivered a strong result in H1FY24, with revenue growth of 22% YoY to A$126M and underlying NPAT growth of 19% YoY to A$15M.
  • The company has guided for FY24 underlying NPAT of A$29–30M compared to A$25.5M in the prior comparative period (excluding contribution from the Fertility North acquisition).
  • Secular industry tailwinds, consistent market share gain, and strong new patient registrations provide a sustainable growth trajectory for Monash IVF.  

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Daily Brief South Korea: LG Corp, Samsung C&T, Wins Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • LG Corp: Updated NAV Analysis Amid Ongoing Corporate Value Up Program in Korea
  • Exploring Trading Setups Utilizing NPS’s ESG Fund Flows After July
  • Korea Small Cap Gem #27: Wins Co.


LG Corp: Updated NAV Analysis Amid Ongoing Corporate Value Up Program in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • Our NAV analysis of LG Corp suggests an implied market cap of 16.3 trillion won or 103,781 won per share which is 16% higher than current share price.
  • For holdco discount, we used a 50% holdco discount. If investors perceive improvement in value (such as through corporate governance improvements), the holdco discount on LG Corp would decline.
  • LG Corp’s shares are up 5.9% in the past six months, outperforming all the major LG Group related companies including LG Chem, LG H&H, LG Electronics, and LG Energy Solution. 

Exploring Trading Setups Utilizing NPS’s ESG Fund Flows After July

By Sanghyun Park

  • From July, Korea’s listed firms will disclose value enhancement plans. Korea’s NPS may exclude non-compliant firms, pending official response, though internal review suggests likely implementation.
  • It’s crucial to know portfolio stocks for proactive positioning. A setup targeting potential exclusion from NPS’s ESG funds due to post-July compliance must be designed.
  • Managers often use KRX ESG Leaders 150, aligning portfolios with it. Thus, it’s crucial to use this list for post-July compliance monitoring and to adapt setups for NPS’s flow impacts.

Korea Small Cap Gem #27: Wins Co.

By Douglas Kim

  • Wins Co. is engaged in the business of developing and supplying information security solutions and developing software related to network security to protect networks from cyber threats and viruses. 
  • The company has a consistent growth in sales and profits. It also has a strong balance sheet. At the end of 2023, it had a debt ratio of 15.4%. 
  • Wins Co is trading at EV/EBITDA of 1.7x, P/E of 7.8x, and P/B of 0.9x in 2024 which are 75%, 26%, and 25% lower than the historical valuation multiples.

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Daily Brief United States: E.W. Scripps Co/The A, Coursera , C3.ai Inc, Bitcoin, Gold, Kulicke And Soffa Industries,, Envestnet Inc, IonQ , Establishment Labs Holdings In, Tripadvisor Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Jun 24 Rebal: Many Intra-Review Changes Possible Due to M&A, Spin-Offs
  • Coursera Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – What Makes This Ed-Tech Giant Tick? – Major Drivers
  • C3.ai (AI):- Expansion Of The Generative AI Market & 3 Other Fundamental Aspects Fueling Its Growth!
  • Crypto Crisp: Profit-Taking
  • Gold and Bitcoin Rallye & CTA Positioning Update
  • Kulicke and Soffa Industries: A Story Of Continued Leadership in Core Markets
  • Envestnet Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Discover the Top 6 Drivers Behind Its Rapid Expansion! – Financial Forecasts
  • IonQ Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Accelerating Innovation Through Hybrid Quantum Computing! – Major Drivers
  • Establishmnt Lbs Hldng (ESTA) – Monday, Dec 18, 2023
  • Tripadvisor Inc (TRIP) – Monday, Dec 18, 2023


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Jun 24 Rebal: Many Intra-Review Changes Possible Due to M&A, Spin-Offs

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • The index is reviewed quarterly. The next review will be in June 2024 and the evaluation date for the rankings for the constituent selection process is 6th June 2024.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs and Potential DELs for the June 2024 index rebal event and the intra-review ADDs/DELETEs.

Coursera Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – What Makes This Ed-Tech Giant Tick? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on ed-tech major, Coursera.
  • The company had a successful fourth quarter, marking a strong close to the year.
  • The company welcomed 24 million new learners in this period, bringing their base to more than 140 million and seeing an increase in annual revenue of 21% over the previous year.

C3.ai (AI):- Expansion Of The Generative AI Market & 3 Other Fundamental Aspects Fueling Its Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on AI software platform company, C3 AI. The company has demonstrated positive performance in their third-quarter fiscal 2024 results with a total revenue of $78.4 million, marking an 18% YoY growth and surpassing their guidance range.
  • The total number of customer engagements has also seen an increase of 80% compared to the previous year.
  • The company reported a non-GAAP gross profit of $54.7 million with a gross margin standing at 70%.

Crypto Crisp: Profit-Taking

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Recently, we have voiced our concerns about the excessive use of leverage in the crypto market.
  • Just last week, traders were facing annual rates of up to 150% to maintain long positions in Bitcoin on the perpetual market.
  • By the end of the week, it became evident that this approach was unsustainable, leading to a significant market correction and extensive liquidations in the futures market.

Gold and Bitcoin Rallye & CTA Positioning Update

By The Commodity Report

  • Gold and Bitcoin prices both remain massively supported by easing financial conditions and a bunch of liquidity in the market.
  • While the Fed Funds Rate remains high at 5,5% – liquidity conditions in the market is what really matters for both safe haven assets.
  • Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan announced that gold is their number one pick in the commodities market. According to them, the price has room to rise towards $2.500.

Kulicke and Soffa Industries: A Story Of Continued Leadership in Core Markets

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on capital equipment manufacturer, Kulicke and Soffa Industries Inc.
  • The company delivered their Q1 2024 earnings recently, announcing an impressive revenue of $171.2 million for the December quarter.
  • However, not all news from the call was as positive because GAAP net income stood at only $9.3 million, alongside non-GAAP earnings per share at $0.3. However, this was still slightly higher than the guidance midpoint.

Envestnet Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Discover the Top 6 Drivers Behind Its Rapid Expansion! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Envestnet, a leading provider of integrated wealth management solutions.
  • The company announced strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023 in its latest earnings call.
  • The company reported solid growth and successfully executed its strategic initiatives, leading to significant margin expansion.

IonQ Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Accelerating Innovation Through Hybrid Quantum Computing! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on quantum computing systems producer, IONQ. The company has reported its Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 earnings, showing strong performance within the quantum computing sector.
  • The company generated $6.1 million in Q4, bringing the total recognized revenue to over $22 million for the full year, exceeding the upper end of their projected range.
  • For the year, IonQ achieved $65.1 million in bookings, greatly surpassing its original bookings midpoint of $40 million, providing evidence of successful performance by both the technical and commercial team.

Establishmnt Lbs Hldng (ESTA) – Monday, Dec 18, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • Establishment Labs is a Costa Rican company known for manufacturing and selling breast implants, with their Motiva implant gaining market share from competitors.
  • The stock price of ESTA has recently dropped significantly due to a weak Q3 and lowered guidance, presenting an opportunity for investors to get into the dominant player in the breast augmentation market at a discounted price.
  • With Motiva having a low rupture rate and no cases of associated cancers, analysts value ESTA at approximately $100 a share on a DCF basis, making it a compelling investment opportunity for potential growth.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Tripadvisor Inc (TRIP) – Monday, Dec 18, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • Viator offers a wide range of unique activities and tours around the world
  • The Fork allows users to book tables at restaurants globally
  • TripAdvisor remains a key player in the travel industry with an undervalued stock, presenting an attractive investment opportunity

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief India: Tata Consultancy Svcs, ICICI Securities Ltd, Larsen & Toubro and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • TCS US$1.1bn Placement – Relatively Small but Isn’t Well Flagged, Could Have Implications for Others
  • ICICI Securities : A Special Situation Play with Limited Downside
  • Larsen & Toubro (LT IN): Order Book Remains Robust Amidst Margin Concerns


TCS US$1.1bn Placement – Relatively Small but Isn’t Well Flagged, Could Have Implications for Others

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tata Sons, holding company of Tata Group, is looking to raise around US$1.1bn via selling a 0.65% stake in Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN).
  • The deal doesn’t appear to be well-flagged although it could be part of Tata Sons’ recent moves to avoid an RBI mandated listing next year.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

ICICI Securities : A Special Situation Play with Limited Downside

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • ICICI Securities Shareholders will consider delisting proposal at the end of March-24 which will decide its fate
  • Swap Ratio based on current prices offers limited downside for I-Sec Shareholders if delisting goes through.
  • There could be potential upside of 20% if delisting fails.

Larsen & Toubro (LT IN): Order Book Remains Robust Amidst Margin Concerns

By Tina Banerjee

  • In Q3FY24, Larsen & Toubro (LT IN) witnessed order inflow of INR 760bn (up 25% YoY) bolstering the order book to INR 4.7tn at the end of December 2023.
  • Margins continued to remain under pressure in 9MFY24 due to cost pressures in legacy jobs.
  • Strong project execution and healthy order book are expected to drive future growth with margins reviving after bottoming out.

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Daily Brief Japan: JSR Corp, Tokio Marine Holdings, D.Western Therapeutics Institute Inc. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • JSR (4185 JP) – Launch of The Official Tender Offer (And the Double Arb)
  • JSR Corporation (4185 JP): JIC Tender Starts and Should Succeed Despite Shin-Etsu’s Re-Rating
  • Tokio Marine Cross-Shareholding – At Least US$18bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell
  • 4Q Follow-Up -D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) | 4576


JSR (4185 JP) – Launch of The Official Tender Offer (And the Double Arb)

By Travis Lundy

  • The Tender Offer is finally here. JIC announced the official launch after the close today.
  • JIC appears to be taking on the SUNY RF risk as-is. The Tender Offer details vs the original expectations in the late June 2023 document are unchanged. 
  • Once started, unless a US court approves an injunction causing regulatory delay, this is done. But there are path events. And of course there is a double arb here.

JSR Corporation (4185 JP): JIC Tender Starts and Should Succeed Despite Shin-Etsu’s Re-Rating

By Arun George

  • JSR Corp (4185 JP) notes that the pre-condition for JIC’s tender has been satisfied. The offer price remains unchanged at JPY4,350 per share. 
  • The offer remains attractive despite the material re-rating of peers. The tender should succeed when combined with shareholder fatigue and a lack of vocal opposition. 
  • The tender requires a 66.7% minority acceptance rate. The gross and annualised spread for a 23 April payment is 0.6% and 7.1%, respectively.

Tokio Marine Cross-Shareholding – At Least US$18bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

By Sumeet Singh

  • The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.
  • Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 33 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$16.5bn.
  • In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.

4Q Follow-Up -D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) | 4576

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Major milestones with high expectations coming in the next 2-3 years: 1) Phase IIb US trials for H-1337 as “first choice as a second-line Glaucoma drug” for patients who do not respond to PGs
  •  2) 2024 application/approval and 2025 launch of DW- 1002 in Japan, 2023 application and 2024 approval/launch in China, as well as orphan drug designation for combination formula MembraneBlue-DualⓇ (DW-1002 + trypan blue) in the US
  • 3) in Japan, start P2 clinical trials in 2024, P3 trials in late 2025 though 2026, and normal schedule application for approval for regenerative cell-therapy DWR-2206 in 2027

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Daily Brief China: China Resources Beer Holdings, Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial, Health And Happiness (H&H) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Cheers! Raise a Glass to China Resources Beer (0291.HK)
  • Pre-IPO Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial – High Profitability and Growth May Not Be Sustainable
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Nickel Industries


Cheers! Raise a Glass to China Resources Beer (0291.HK)

By Rikki Malik

  • A liquid proxy for China’s recovering consumption (with no technology regulation risk)
  • A quality red chip company at a very reasonable valuation
  • Growing sales and margins as its premiumisation strategy is executed

Pre-IPO Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial – High Profitability and Growth May Not Be Sustainable

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Baicha Baidao’s business model is similar to MIXUE, but MIXUE has more heavy-asset model with own supply chain, while Baicha Baidao is more of a “transfer station” for raw materials.
  • Single store data of Baicha Baidao showed varying degrees of decline. It’s uncertain whether Baicha Baidao would maintain current market share/revenue growth/high gross margin in front of fierce homogeneous competition.
  • When Baicha Baidao submitted prospectus last year, its valuation was already about RMB18 billion.We think its valuation would be lower than MIXUE, close to Guming and higher than Auntea Jenny.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Nickel Industries

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ECM: TCS US$1.1bn Placement – Relatively Small but Isn’t Well Flagged and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • TCS US$1.1bn Placement – Relatively Small but Isn’t Well Flagged, Could Have Implications for Others
  • 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Pre-IPO Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial – High Profitability and Growth May Not Be Sustainable


TCS US$1.1bn Placement – Relatively Small but Isn’t Well Flagged, Could Have Implications for Others

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tata Sons, holding company of Tata Group, is looking to raise around US$1.1bn via selling a 0.65% stake in Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN).
  • The deal doesn’t appear to be well-flagged although it could be part of Tata Sons’ recent moves to avoid an RBI mandated listing next year.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO. The bookrunner on the deal is CIMB Investment Bank Berhad.
  • 99 Speed Mart Holdings (99 Speedmart) operates the “99 Speedmart” chain of mini-market outlets, retailing daily necessities across Malaysia.
  • Based on IMR, the firm was the largest mini-market player and a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, with a market share of 37.9% and 11.1% based on 2022 sales, respectively.

Pre-IPO Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial – High Profitability and Growth May Not Be Sustainable

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Baicha Baidao’s business model is similar to MIXUE, but MIXUE has more heavy-asset model with own supply chain, while Baicha Baidao is more of a “transfer station” for raw materials.
  • Single store data of Baicha Baidao showed varying degrees of decline. It’s uncertain whether Baicha Baidao would maintain current market share/revenue growth/high gross margin in front of fierce homogeneous competition.
  • When Baicha Baidao submitted prospectus last year, its valuation was already about RMB18 billion.We think its valuation would be lower than MIXUE, close to Guming and higher than Auntea Jenny.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Woodstock for AI Kicks Off and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Woodstock for AI Kicks Off
  • Generative AI. Innovation Turns To Litigation, Licensing & Regulation
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Contract Furniture and Office Seating in the Spotlight
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending March 15, 2024
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended March 15, 2024


Ohayo Japan | Woodstock for AI Kicks Off

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks rose on Monday as investors turned their attention to Nvidia’s GTC Conference and awaited Federal Reserve’s monetary policy guidance
  • The Bank of Japan is set to announce significant changes in its monetary policy, including the end of yield curve control, risk asset purchases, and negative interest rates
  • Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang unveiled the Blackwell platform at the GTC 2024 conference, boasting its real-time generative AI capabilities and efficiency surpassing its predecessor, Hopper

Generative AI. Innovation Turns To Litigation, Licensing & Regulation

By William Keating

  • The EU has just launched the World’s first AI Act
  • OpenAI claims the NYT tried to hack ChatGPT in order to prove they used their archive material during  one of its training phases. 
  • Google’s licensing of Reddit’s content in advance of the latter’s impending IPO is a win-win for both, and likely how content creators can expect to be rewarded in the future

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Contract Furniture and Office Seating in the Spotlight

By Water Tower Research

  • Office furniture will be in our spotlight for the next two weeks.
  • Steelcase reports 4QFY24 on Thursday, March 21 after the close and MillerKnoll reports its 3QFY24 on Wednesday, March 27 after the close.
  • Earlier this month, a Bloomberg News Service article highlighted competition in task seating, which is among the most profitable and important categories for industry players.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending March 15, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • The US cannabis MSOS ETF broke a two-week slide and gained 9.51% over the last five sessions.
  • The week was shaping up to be negative, until optimism around federal reform caused MSOS to jump 14.91% on Friday.
  • This was the biggest one-day return since September 5 and 14.58 million shares traded is the most since September 15.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended March 15, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was down by 1.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 1.2%).
  • Energy Technology (12.5% of the index) was down by 6.2%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (55.5% of the index) was down by 1.2%, ClimateTech Mining was down 3.7% and Advanced Transportation Solutions (26% of index) was down 1.8%.
  • Top 10 Performers: LICY, ADES, ARVL, SMR, EH, EGT, RIDE, FF, CVW, LIS

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: JSR (4185 JP) – Launch of The Official Tender Offer (And the Double Arb) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • JSR (4185 JP) – Launch of The Official Tender Offer (And the Double Arb)
  • Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Jun 24 Rebal: Many Intra-Review Changes Possible Due to M&A, Spin-Offs
  • JSR Corporation (4185 JP): JIC Tender Starts and Should Succeed Despite Shin-Etsu’s Re-Rating
  • Orecorp Should Now Back Perseus’ Offer
  • Exploring Trading Setups Utilizing NPS’s ESG Fund Flows After July
  • Tokio Marine Cross-Shareholding – At Least US$18bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell
  • Currys Lifts Profit Outlook After Suitors Walk Away
  • Southern Cross Media (SXL AU): Re-Engages with ARN Media (A1N AU)/Anchorage on Revised Terms


JSR (4185 JP) – Launch of The Official Tender Offer (And the Double Arb)

By Travis Lundy

  • The Tender Offer is finally here. JIC announced the official launch after the close today.
  • JIC appears to be taking on the SUNY RF risk as-is. The Tender Offer details vs the original expectations in the late June 2023 document are unchanged. 
  • Once started, unless a US court approves an injunction causing regulatory delay, this is done. But there are path events. And of course there is a double arb here.

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Jun 24 Rebal: Many Intra-Review Changes Possible Due to M&A, Spin-Offs

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • The index is reviewed quarterly. The next review will be in June 2024 and the evaluation date for the rankings for the constituent selection process is 6th June 2024.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs and Potential DELs for the June 2024 index rebal event and the intra-review ADDs/DELETEs.

JSR Corporation (4185 JP): JIC Tender Starts and Should Succeed Despite Shin-Etsu’s Re-Rating

By Arun George

  • JSR Corp (4185 JP) notes that the pre-condition for JIC’s tender has been satisfied. The offer price remains unchanged at JPY4,350 per share. 
  • The offer remains attractive despite the material re-rating of peers. The tender should succeed when combined with shareholder fatigue and a lack of vocal opposition. 
  • The tender requires a 66.7% minority acceptance rate. The gross and annualised spread for a 23 April payment is 0.6% and 7.1%, respectively.

Orecorp Should Now Back Perseus’ Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in August, Silvercorp  (SVM CN) bid A$0.15/share and 0.967 scrip for Orecorp (ORR AU); and secured board support after bumping the cash portion to A$0.19/share via an Off-market Offer.
  • Perseus Mining (PRU AU) countered on the 22 January with a A$0.55/share Offer, which was rejected by Orecorp, ostensibly over concerns Perseus had not secured Tanzanian Fair Competition Commission approval.
  • That regulatory approval has now been satisfied. The Offers for both Perseus and Silvercorp are conditional on 50.1% acceptance hurdles. I think Perseus’ all-cash Offer is superior.

Exploring Trading Setups Utilizing NPS’s ESG Fund Flows After July

By Sanghyun Park

  • From July, Korea’s listed firms will disclose value enhancement plans. Korea’s NPS may exclude non-compliant firms, pending official response, though internal review suggests likely implementation.
  • It’s crucial to know portfolio stocks for proactive positioning. A setup targeting potential exclusion from NPS’s ESG funds due to post-July compliance must be designed.
  • Managers often use KRX ESG Leaders 150, aligning portfolios with it. Thus, it’s crucial to use this list for post-July compliance monitoring and to adapt setups for NPS’s flow impacts.

Tokio Marine Cross-Shareholding – At Least US$18bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

By Sumeet Singh

  • The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.
  • Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 33 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$16.5bn.
  • In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.

Currys Lifts Profit Outlook After Suitors Walk Away

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Neither Elliot nor JD.com (9618 HK) intend to pursue Currys PLC (CURY LN) at this stage and thus won’t be able to present an offer for the next six months.
  • Currys has issued an upbeat trading update. My new TP is 78p/share, >16% above Elliot’s sweetened offer, 10.4x 24e P/E vs 7.6x currently, and 9.1x 25e P/E vs 6.6x currently.
  • My TP implied equity value is 864 million. I believe the Board and top shareholders would be willing to consider offers around 80p.

Southern Cross Media (SXL AU): Re-Engages with ARN Media (A1N AU)/Anchorage on Revised Terms

By Arun George

  • Southern Cross Media (SXL AU) is re-engaging with ARN Media (A1N AU)/Anchorage at A$0.296 cash per share and 0.870 A1N shares per SXL share. Eligible shareholders get franking credits worth A$0.127.
  • SXL’s re-engagement was driven by major shareholders, who are also supporting a motion to remove Mr Rob Murray as chairman due to the glacial pace of negotiation.
  • While the offer is light compared to long-term adjusted exchange ratios and historical prices, large shareholders are supportive. Shares are trading through terms due to the large franking credits.  

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China Vanke and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Nickel Industries


Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Nickel Industries

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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