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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 9th): AIA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 9th): AIA, China Hongqiao, Cosco Shipping


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 9th): AIA, China Hongqiao, Cosco Shipping

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on May 9th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK), Cosco Shipping (1919 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK).

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Daily Brief ECM: Green Tea Group IPO – Peer Comp & Thoughts on Valuation and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Green Tea Group IPO – Peer Comp & Thoughts on Valuation
  • Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Attractive Valuation Brings Buyers, Trades Well in Week One
  • Canara Robeco AMC Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Sector Dedicated Buyers Get a Winner on Opening Pop


Green Tea Group IPO – Peer Comp & Thoughts on Valuation

By Troy Wong

  • Green Tea Group (GTG) is looking to raise US$157m (HKD 1.2bn) in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • GTG is the fourth largest Casual Chinese Cuisine player in Mainland China, it has been gaining market share historically and is likely to continue.
  • GTG plans to accelerate its expansion of the restaurant network, focusing on expansion into tier two cities and below, with small restaurants rather than large ones.

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Attractive Valuation Brings Buyers, Trades Well in Week One

By IPO Boutique

  • The stock opened at $33.25 versus the $30.00 issue price for a gain of 10.8% at first trade.
  • According to guidance that the deal finished north of 10-times oversubscribed. The guidance pointed to a midpoint pricing and that is where the final outcome occurred.
  • The sponsor, Apollo Global, is known for being a shrewd entity and a stickler on price, however, in this instance investors saw solid value in the company.

Canara Robeco AMC Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Canara Robeco AMC (570515Z IN) is looking to raise about US$176m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, JM Fin and SBI Caps.
  • Canara Robeco is an asset management company engaged in managing mutual funds and providing investment advice on Indian equities to Robeco Hong Kong Limited, a member of the Promoter Group.
  • According to CRISIL, it is India’s second oldest asset management company.

American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Sector Dedicated Buyers Get a Winner on Opening Pop

By IPO Boutique

  • Specialty insurer American Integrity Insurance Group (AII US) came to market Thursday with solid interest from sector-dedicated investors producing a 15.6% winner at first trade.
  • According to our sources, the deal was well-oversubscribed which equates to roughly 5x-6x in terms of granular subscription levels.
  • Given the choppiness of the broad market in April and the temporary pause in the IPO market, the insurance sector was the perfect area to lead the comeback.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Thematic Report- India-UK FTA: A Stitch in Time for the Indian Textile Sector? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Thematic Report- India-UK FTA: A Stitch in Time for the Indian Textile Sector?
  • Japan Strategy Weekly | Tariff Relief
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 09/05/2025
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BIDU US/JD US/PDD US/AAPL US/BILI US/700 HK
  • European IT Services: Q1 2025 Takeaways – Tariffs Hurt on Discretionary IT Spending
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam


Thematic Report- India-UK FTA: A Stitch in Time for the Indian Textile Sector?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The India-UK FTA, signed on May 6, 2025, provides Indian textile exports with zero-duty access to 99% of their products, removing tariffs as high as 12%.
  • This landmark deal offers a substantial opportunity to increase India’s market share in the $19.7 billion UK apparel market and boosts competitiveness against Bangladesh and China.
  • With enhanced pricing power, Indian textile companies like KPR Mill (KPR IN), Welspun India (WLSI IN), and S.P. Apparels (SPAL IN) are well-positioned to scale, increasing their export share.

Japan Strategy Weekly | Tariff Relief

By Mark Chadwick

  • Japanese equities advanced in a holiday-shortened week, buoyed by global risk-on sentiment and a weaker yen
  • Strangely, Services PMI rose to 52.4 in April, showing continued expansion with stronger new orders despite falling business confidence and other lead indicators
  • NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)  stock surged +41% this week following the announcement that parent company NTT will launch a tender offer to acquire all remaining shares

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 09/05/2025

By Auctus Advisors

  • AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: ~12 mbbl/d in 1Q25.
  • Re-iterating FY25 guidance – 1Q25 production was ~12 mbbl/d, including 6,841 bbl/d in Gabon, 3,661 bbl/d in Equatorial Guinea and 1,492 bbl/d in Tunisia.
  • Production in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea was previously reported by BW Energy and Kosmos Energy.

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BIDU US/JD US/PDD US/AAPL US/BILI US/700 HK

By Ying Pan

  • BIDU US: Baidu Apollo Partners with CAR Inc to Pioneer Autonomous Ride-Hailing in Tourism Hubs (+)
  • JD US: JD.com Launches Unlimited-Salary Tech Talent Program to Rival Google DeepMind (-)
  • PDD US : Slight Increase in Technology Service Fees (+)

European IT Services: Q1 2025 Takeaways – Tariffs Hurt on Discretionary IT Spending

By Gregory Ramirez

  • Economic uncertainty, weak industrial demand, and tariffs have triggered a downturn for European IT services firms in Q1, marking their first recessive quarter since 2020 and causing them to underperform.   
  • Discretionary IT spending is declining again in manufacturing, while structural challenges in Europe around competitiveness and regulation, limit recovery prospects, prompting firms to shift focus toward defence and sovereignty.   
  • Generative and agentic AI are expected to drive a new growth cycle, with potential for significant productivity gains and reduced dependence on human labour, though current AI-driven revenues remain modest.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam

By The IDEA!

  • Having digested yesterday’s published 1Q25 solid set of results and information that was shared during the company’s earnings call, we decided to stick to our neutral stance on the stock.
  • Although the company has proven to be rather resilient and performed better than expected in the current uncertain environment, we fear that the real test still lies ahead: the potential impact of the trade tariffs still has to kick in.
  • After all, a lot of the tariffs that were announced on ‘Liberation Day’ have been postponed for 90 days.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: StubWorld: Geely Is (Mostly) Trading “Rich”; And May Still Bump Zeekr Terms and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Geely Is (Mostly) Trading “Rich”; And May Still Bump Zeekr Terms
  • Korea Zinc Announces Cancellation of Its Treasury Shares
  • Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Lockup – PE Owner Is up 5.6x, with US$800m Lockup Expiry Soon
  • Webjet (WJL AU): Undisclosed Buyer Buying
  • Wanda Hotel Development’s Asset Sale: Potential Upside and Key Risks Analyzed
  • Domain Holdings (DHG AU): CoStar’s A$4.43 Binding Proposal a Done Deal
  • AVJennings (AVJ AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July


StubWorld: Geely Is (Mostly) Trading “Rich”; And May Still Bump Zeekr Terms

By David Blennerhassett

  • Geely Auto (175 HK)‘s discount to NAV is less than half its 12-month average. And Geely is generally trading tighter to listed PRC auto peers. 
  • Preceding my comments on Geely – and NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Korea Zinc Announces Cancellation of Its Treasury Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • Korea Zinc (010130 KS)’s chairman Choi Yoon-Beom announced that the company will cancel all 2.04 million treasury shares that the company acquired through a tender offer last year.
  • Now the company has finally decided to cancel all of the treasury shares this year, this should have a positive impact on its share price.
  • Korea Zinc announced better than expected earnings in 1Q25. Korea Zinc achieved more than 3.5-fold increase in sales in the strategic minerals sector, including antimony, indium, and bismuth in 1Q25.

Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Lockup – PE Owner Is up 5.6x, with US$800m Lockup Expiry Soon

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aadhar Housing Finance raised around US$360m in its India IPO in May 2024, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon
  • AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Webjet (WJL AU): Undisclosed Buyer Buying

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 30th September 2024, B2C-player Webjet Group (WJL AU) demerged from (now) B2B-player WEB Travel Group (WEB AU). This was discussed in Thoughts On Webjet (WEB AU)’s Demerger. 
  • Webjet is up 34% this week, on decent volume. The word on the street is that an undisclosed buyer with ~5% was seeking to add an additional 5% (19.6mn shares). 
  • Webjet announced after market yesterday it had became aware of such a buyer. That’s all the information at hand.

Wanda Hotel Development’s Asset Sale: Potential Upside and Key Risks Analyzed

By Special Situation Investments

  • Wanda Hotel Development plans to sell hotel management operations to Tongcheng Travel for HK$2.4bn, exceeding its market cap.
  • WHD intends to return most sale proceeds to shareholders, retaining some for working capital and future investments.
  • WHD retains valuable real estate assets, including Chicago condos and a Guilin shopping mall, with potential additional sales.

Domain Holdings (DHG AU): CoStar’s A$4.43 Binding Proposal a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Costar Group (CSGP US) at A$4.43 per share, a 42.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • As CoStar is a US entity, FIRB approval should be forthcoming. The scheme vote is low-risk, as Nine (60.05% of outstanding shares) will vote in favour of it. 
  • While attractive to precedent transaction multiples, the offer remains light compared to peer multiples. At the last close and for an end-of-August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.1%/3.6%. 

AVJennings (AVJ AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July

By Arun George

  • The Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU) IE considers AVID’s A$0.655 offer fair and reasonable as it is above its A$0.54-0.61 valuation range.
  • The offer is conditional on shareholder and regulatory approvals (FIRB and OIO). The vote is low-risk, as SC Global (54.02% of outstanding shares) will vote in favour. 
  • The attractive offer represents a 98.5% premium to the undisturbed price. At the last close and for a 14 August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/2.8%.  

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, Medco Energi
  • The US has unveiled a trade agreement with the UK. The US will maintain a 10% blanket tariff on UK imports, while UK duties on US goods will be reduced to 1.8% from 5.1%. It is unclear how the figures are tabulated.
  • In addition, tariffs on UK autos will be adjusted such that a 10% tariff will apply to the first 100 k vehicle imports, with any additional vehicles facing a 25% rate.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Himax Advances Optical Chip Solutions for NVIDIA and TSMC; But Fog Lingers Over China Auto Recovery and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Himax Advances Optical Chip Solutions for NVIDIA and TSMC; But Fog Lingers Over China Auto Recovery
  • Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (9 to 23 May 2025)
  • SMIC 1Q25 Strong Wafer Growth but Weak ASP. Same in 2Q. Large Capex to Continue in 2025.
  • Wheaton Precious Metals — Records tumbling
  • REVB: New Market Potential and Quarterly Results
  • Hua Hong: Very Poor Margins to Continue, Operating Losses for Longer
  • Unusual Machines, Inc.: 1Q25 Earnings; Strong Quarter, Outlook
  • BlackRock Latin American Inv. Trust — Opportunities in out-of-favour region
  • Soluna Holdings, Inc: Two New Wind-Powered Data Centers
  • Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Torii Acquisition to Broaden Portfolio; High R&D to Dent Profitability


Himax Advances Optical Chip Solutions for NVIDIA and TSMC; But Fog Lingers Over China Auto Recovery

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Auto ICs over 50% of revenue and maintaining market share leading position, but 2Q25 guidance reflects China auto industry caution as China stimulus repeat impact fades and inventory stays lean.
  • Himax advances in co-packaged optics (CPO) shipping samples; to supply TSMC and NVIDIA; Separately, Himax’s AR display tech may align with META’s needs.
  • Strong auto positioning with 200+ Tcon design wins and CPO opportunity in AI/HPC supply chain reinforce long-term upside, despite soft near-term visibility. Maintain our Structural Long view on Himax.

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (9 to 23 May 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks (9 to 23 May 2025).
  • Our top 10 picks in the past two weeks were up on average 5.0% (from 25 April to 9 May), outperforming KOSPI which was up 1.2% in the same period.
  • Our top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include HD Hyundai, Hyundai Elevator, KT Corp, Shinsegae, Coway, Hanwha Aerospace, F&F Co, SM Entertainment, and SK Inc. 

SMIC 1Q25 Strong Wafer Growth but Weak ASP. Same in 2Q. Large Capex to Continue in 2025.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • 1H25 strong revenue growth continues as capacity increase, “production shifting back domestically”, but weakening ASP and clearly demand pull-in in 1H due to US tariffs and China domestic consumer subsidies.
  • “2H not clear, especially after late 3Q”. Management mentions the usual macro / US tariffs unknowns. 2025 Capex similar to 2024 (US$7.7bn, 80% revenue), D&A increasing, ASP down, margins muted.
  • The stock is as expensive as always. 49x 2025 EPS, 41x 2026. Consensus is not expecting a negative tariffs shock or weaker China domestic demand.

Wheaton Precious Metals — Records tumbling

By Edison Investment Research

Wheaton announced record revenue, earnings and operational cash flows in Q125, posting adjusted net EPS that was 10.5% better than our forecast and at the top of the range of analysts’ expectations. The main reason for the outperformance was an 18,616oz (20.1%) oversale of gold relative to production, which drove a US$40.1m positive variance in revenue, partially offset by an US$8.6m negative variance in costs, US$3.6m lower-than-expected interest income and US$2.3m higher tax to result in a US$23.9m positive variance in earnings. As a result, we have upgraded our FY25 adjusted net EPS forecast by 7.5c per share (3.4%). Note that, at current metals prices, our FY26 EPS estimate rises by 73.0% to US$2.63/share.


REVB: New Market Potential and Quarterly Results

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Revelation Biosciences is a life sciences company whose development of immunologic-based therapies is based on the well-established biology of phosphorylated hexaacyl disaccharide (PHAD) and its effect on the innate immune system.
  • The company announced its 1Q2025 financial results after recently revealing that it is targeting a new target indication with its Gemini treatment, the prevention of infection in burn patients.

Hua Hong: Very Poor Margins to Continue, Operating Losses for Longer

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Operating loss in 1Q25 will persist in 2Q25 – I expect throughout 2025. Hua Hong rapid capacity increase is supposedly sold out but D&A is increasing much faster than revenue. 
  • Consensus is not expecting an end-demand slowdown resulting from US import tariffs, or sluggish China domestic consumption. Consensus expects Hua Hong to sell its capacity increase fully. 
  • Given losses in 1H25, Consensus EPS forecast is too high for 2025, probably for 2026 as well. Stock is expensive at 43x 2025 EPS, EPS forecasts looks too high.

Unusual Machines, Inc.: 1Q25 Earnings; Strong Quarter, Outlook

By Water Tower Research

  • Unusual Machines (NYSE American: UMAC) reported another record quarter with revenue of approximately $2.04 million and a gross margin of 24% with some impact from tariffs, which the company expects to be short lived.
  • This growth was achieved even though US government purchases have paused recently. Margins took a slight hit from the tariffs.
  • The company raised $40 million at $5.00 a share to bolster its balance sheet (customers and suppliers need to see the ability to work large orders), and to build out its Orlando motor manufacturing facility.

BlackRock Latin American Inv. Trust — Opportunities in out-of-favour region

By Edison Investment Research

BlackRock Latin American Investment Trust’s (BRLA’s) lead co-manager Sam Vecht reiterates his enthusiasm for a region that is out of favour with other investors. He recognises that returns in Latin America can be volatile, so takes a longer-term view, seeking companies with the potential for stable growth that are trading on reasonable valuations. The manager has developed an in-depth knowledge of the region because of his frequent visits, which include travel to the smaller countries as well as to Brazil and Mexico, the economies of which dominate Latin America. Vecht believes that meeting a wide network, including corporate executives, government officials and community members, allows him to uncover interesting opportunities that may be overlooked by other investors.


Soluna Holdings, Inc: Two New Wind-Powered Data Centers

By Water Tower Research

  • Soluna just published its monthly update, which includes signing of term sheets for two new wind- powered data centers (Project Hedy for 120MW and Project Ellen for 100 MW), securing land for 166MW of Project Kati, and a new partnership with Blockware for hosting capacity at Project Dorothy 2.
  • For April Soluna’s hosted hashrate was a record 1,727 PH/s, and it mined 10 Bitcoins
  • Project Dorothy 1A/1B: Dorothy 1A (25 MW hosting) is fully deployed, and Dorothy 1B (25 MW prop-mining) has achieved strong hashrate growth and met Q1 2025 ancillary service requirements.

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Torii Acquisition to Broaden Portfolio; High R&D to Dent Profitability

By Tina Banerjee

  • Shionogi & Co (4507 JP) is acquiring Torii Pharmaceutical, as well as the pharmaceutical business of Japan Tobacco and U.S. group company Akros Pharma (sub-subsidiary of Japan Tobacco) for ~¥160B.
  • With minimum overlap in focus areas, Shionogi believes that the transaction will create a leading company that delivers innovative pharmaceuticals. However, R&D expenses of the combined company will remain elevated.
  • Considering the promising pipeline, we are hopeful on the long-term growth prospect of the combined company. Shionogi is scheduled to announce FY25 result on May 12.

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Daily Brief Macro: HEW: Doves Disappointed By Patience and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • HEW: Doves Disappointed By Patience
  • [ETP 2025/19] WTI Wavers on Trade Talk Hopes, Henry Hub Pressured by Uncertain Demand Outlook
  • The Art of the Trade War: US BEGS AND CHINA RELENTS
  • With Trade War Taking Its Toll, Asia Must Brace for Slower Growth
  • Cambodian Rubber Production Struggles To Keep Pace With Tire Exports
  • CX Daily: The Changing Landscape of Foreign Law Firms in China


HEW: Doves Disappointed By Patience

By Phil Rush

  • The BoE and Fed decisions disappointed dovish hopes for action by sensibly waiting to see some signs that easing is appropriate. Caution reduces the risk of a policy mistake.
  • Inflation in the US, plus unemployment and GDP in the UK, are the scheduled economic highlights for us next week. The UK data may prove more resilient than feared again.
  • An absence of bad news can allow the good vibes to keep flowing from recent resilient data and trade policy progress, but investors seeking to sleep easy may wish to hedge.

[ETP 2025/19] WTI Wavers on Trade Talk Hopes, Henry Hub Pressured by Uncertain Demand Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 02/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 1.7m barrel fall). Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose; distillate inventories fell less than anticipated.
  • The EIA reported a 104 Bcf storage build, slightly exceeding the 103 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 1.4% above the five-year average.
  • Analysts cut price targets on Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger. Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS estimates but narrowly missed revenue forecasts.

The Art of the Trade War: US BEGS AND CHINA RELENTS

By David Mudd

  • After weeks of imploring China to hold talks over the trade war the US started, Beijing finally agreed to meet. 
  • US negotiators are anxious to improve sentiment in financial markets and have already announced that they intend to lower tariffs on China before negotiations even start!
  • US is trying to accomplish the impossible by pursuing its trade war and simultaneously trying to maintain “US Exceptionalism”. Foreigners have already begun to shun US assets.

With Trade War Taking Its Toll, Asia Must Brace for Slower Growth

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • A month after the US’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, cracks in the US economy are emerging: deteriorating consumer and business sentiment, nascent signs of financial stresses, and large inventory buildups. 
  • China will also suffer a slowdown after the frontloading of its exports fade. Policy will focus on preserving jobs and production, rather than demand stimulus.
  • April PMI readings, commodity prices, and freight-related data point to a generalized global growth slowdown.  Record-highs in economic policy uncertainty make things worse.

Cambodian Rubber Production Struggles To Keep Pace With Tire Exports

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  In Q1 2025, Cambodia exports 59,754 tons of rubber, down 13.8% YoY  
  • Overall rubber production in Q1 2025, 64,080 tons, down 7.9% YoY  
  • Trump tariff, EUDR pose challenge to Cambodian rubber and tire  

CX Daily: The Changing Landscape of Foreign Law Firms in China

By Caixin Global

  • Law firms / In Depth: The changing landscape of foreign law firms in China
  • Education /: Education ministry boosts scrutiny of dodgy overseas degrees
  • Bonds /China accelerates sci-tech bond plan to fuel innovation, aiming for $40 billion in issuance

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Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Laopu Gold, NTT Data Corp, East Buy Holding , Goldlion Holdings, Indusind Bank, Tsuruha Holdings, Geely Auto, Green Tea Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears
  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK): US$300m Primary Placement & Index Inclusion Green Light
  • [Japan M&A] NTT (9432) Overpays To Buy Out NTT Data (9613) Minorities
  • East Buy Holdings (1797 HK): Potential KWEB Deletion in June
  • Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): 9th May Vote On Tsang Family’s Offer
  • SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Trent, Bharat Electronics Could Replace IndusInd Bank, Nestle
  • [Japan Activism] ISS Comes Out Supporting Orbis Against Tsuruha/Welcia Merger Ratio
  • StubWorld: Geely Is (Mostly) Trading “Rich”; And May Still Bump Zeekr Terms
  • Green Tea Group IPO – Peer Comp & Thoughts on Valuation
  • HEW: Doves Disappointed By Patience


CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears

By Brian Freitas

  • Reports continue to indicate a US$5bn raise for CATL H-shares with a discount of up to 10% to CATL (300750 CH) and with cornerstone investors taking up half the deal.
  • The company is currently gauging investor demand. The IPO could open next week and the H-shares could list later this month.
  • Index Fast Entry largely depends on the cornerstone investor allocation. Float higher than 50%/60% is required for Fast Entry to global indices.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): US$300m Primary Placement & Index Inclusion Green Light

By Brian Freitas

  • Full circulation implementation at the beginning of April derailed Laopu Gold (6181 HK)‘s chances of global index inclusion in May. 
  • The company has now launched a US$300m primary placement that will significantly improve chances of inclusion in the same global index in August.
  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK) will also be added to another global index in September, so there are a few index inclusions likely for the stock this year. 

[Japan M&A] NTT (9432) Overpays To Buy Out NTT Data (9613) Minorities

By Travis Lundy

  • Pre-Open, we got a Nikkei article which suggested four different prices possible. We got something in the middle. I think NTT is probably overpaying here.
  • There is a fair bit of transparency in the documents and valuation. That is encouraging. There are no synergies counted in the fair calculations. That is discouraging.
  • This will not trade like a “normal” Japan risk arb situation. There will be nuances. 

East Buy Holdings (1797 HK): Potential KWEB Deletion in June

By Brian Freitas


Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): 9th May Vote On Tsang Family’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 17th December 2024, Goldlion Holdings (533 HK), an apparel manufacturer/distributor, announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tsang family (2.95% stakeholder), for shares not held. 
  • The Tangs are offerings $1.5232/share (declared final), a 24.85% premium to last price, but a 71% premium to undisturbed. Despite the very low price-to-book multiple, this transaction looks done.
  • The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 9th May, with payment on or before the 10th July. The IFA (Altus Capital) says “fair & reasonable“.

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Trent, Bharat Electronics Could Replace IndusInd Bank, Nestle

By Brian Freitas


[Japan Activism] ISS Comes Out Supporting Orbis Against Tsuruha/Welcia Merger Ratio

By Travis Lundy

  • Large Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) investor Orbis Investments last month said they were against the Tsuruha/Welcia merger ratio. They wanted a cash takeover above Aeon’s Oasis buy price from 2024.
  • Influential shareholder proxy advisor ISS has apparently come out recommending shareholders vote against. That’s a start, but the hard work needs to be Orbis talking to domestic passive managers.
  • Getting 90% of foreign active managers as of end-February would make it a very close-run thing, but Orbis really needs some more to show up against the ratio.

StubWorld: Geely Is (Mostly) Trading “Rich”; And May Still Bump Zeekr Terms

By David Blennerhassett

  • Geely Auto (175 HK)‘s discount to NAV is less than half its 12-month average. And Geely is generally trading tighter to listed PRC auto peers. 
  • Preceding my comments on Geely – and NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Green Tea Group IPO – Peer Comp & Thoughts on Valuation

By Troy Wong

  • Green Tea Group (GTG) is looking to raise US$157m (HKD 1.2bn) in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • GTG is the fourth largest Casual Chinese Cuisine player in Mainland China, it has been gaining market share historically and is likely to continue.
  • GTG plans to accelerate its expansion of the restaurant network, focusing on expansion into tier two cities and below, with small restaurants rather than large ones.

HEW: Doves Disappointed By Patience

By Phil Rush

  • The BoE and Fed decisions disappointed dovish hopes for action by sensibly waiting to see some signs that easing is appropriate. Caution reduces the risk of a policy mistake.
  • Inflation in the US, plus unemployment and GDP in the UK, are the scheduled economic highlights for us next week. The UK data may prove more resilient than feared again.
  • An absence of bad news can allow the good vibes to keep flowing from recent resilient data and trade policy progress, but investors seeking to sleep easy may wish to hedge.

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Daily Brief Australia: Webjet Group, Avjennings Ltd, Domain Holdings Australia and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Webjet (WJL AU): Undisclosed Buyer Buying
  • AVJennings (AVJ AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July
  • Domain Holdings (DHG AU): CoStar’s A$4.43 Binding Proposal a Done Deal


Webjet (WJL AU): Undisclosed Buyer Buying

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 30th September 2024, B2C-player Webjet Group (WJL AU) demerged from (now) B2B-player WEB Travel Group (WEB AU). This was discussed in Thoughts On Webjet (WEB AU)’s Demerger. 
  • Webjet is up 34% this week, on decent volume. The word on the street is that an undisclosed buyer with ~5% was seeking to add an additional 5% (19.6mn shares). 
  • Webjet announced after market yesterday it had became aware of such a buyer. That’s all the information at hand.

AVJennings (AVJ AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July

By Arun George

  • The Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU) IE considers AVID’s A$0.655 offer fair and reasonable as it is above its A$0.54-0.61 valuation range.
  • The offer is conditional on shareholder and regulatory approvals (FIRB and OIO). The vote is low-risk, as SC Global (54.02% of outstanding shares) will vote in favour. 
  • The attractive offer represents a 98.5% premium to the undisturbed price. At the last close and for a 14 August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/2.8%.  

Domain Holdings (DHG AU): CoStar’s A$4.43 Binding Proposal a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Costar Group (CSGP US) at A$4.43 per share, a 42.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • As CoStar is a US entity, FIRB approval should be forthcoming. The scheme vote is low-risk, as Nine (60.05% of outstanding shares) will vote in favour of it. 
  • While attractive to precedent transaction multiples, the offer remains light compared to peer multiples. At the last close and for an end-of-August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.1%/3.6%. 

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Daily Brief Thailand: Krung Thai Bank Pub and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Thai Banks 1Q25 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB), the Scorecard Stand-Out


Thai Banks 1Q25 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB), the Scorecard Stand-Out

By Victor Galliano

  • Krung Thai ranks top of the Thai bank peer group on our weighted scorecard methodology, based on multiple valuation parameters, as well as balance sheet and return metrics
  • Krung Thai is driving its solid post-provision profitability higher, delivering close to double-digit ROE with a premium capital ratio for a PBV ratio of under 0.7x
  • The recent Trump tariff induced correction in the Krung Thai share price is a buying opportunity; it has scope to narrow the valuation gap with SCBx

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