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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Australia: Lynas Corp Ltd, Codan, Kinatico , State Gas Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lynas (LYC AU): Gina’s Stake Revives MP Materials Merger
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 24: A Couple of Intra-Review Changes Likely
  • Kinatico Ltd – Q3 NPAT of $0.1m, EBITDA of $0.8m
  • State Gas – Completion Commissioning and a Contract


Lynas (LYC AU): Gina’s Stake Revives MP Materials Merger

By David Blennerhassett

  • Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) is the proverbial Aussie battler. Post the 2018 general elections, the new Malaysian government put Lynas on notice it may halt it rare-earth operations. 
  • Since then, Lynas’ Malaysian facility, which cuts into China’s near-monopoly on processing elements for defense/aerospace/EV/electronics industries, has (mostly) operated without substantial disruptions. Profit peaked in FY22; but has since rolled-over.
  • Gina Rhinehart’s Hancock has now disclosed a 5.82% stake in Lynas; having disclosed a 5.3% stake in MP Materials (MP US) earlier this month. Lynas confirmed discussions with MPM in February.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 24: A Couple of Intra-Review Changes Likely

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • There are up to two intra-review changes possible between now and the June 2024 review which could triggered by the Silver Lake (SLR AU) and Boral (BLD AU) deals.
  • Separately, I see one ASX 20 change and two ASX 100 changes for the regular rebalance in June 2024.

Kinatico Ltd – Q3 NPAT of $0.1m, EBITDA of $0.8m

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
  • KYP has reported Q3 FY24 EBITDA of $0.8m and NPAT of $0.1m, the first time the company has reported these metrics on a quarterly basis.
  • Revenue was $7.0m for the quarter, flat year-on-year but the composition continued to demonstrate the conversion of one-off transactional revenue to recurring software-as-a-service (SaaS) revenue.

State Gas – Completion Commissioning and a Contract

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • With completion, commissioning and a contract secured, first gas is just around the bend.
  • Critically, with the company on the cusp of first gas, it holds first mover advantage over peer group projects where first gas may well be 2026 or later.
  • We assign a NAV of $198m or $0.72/share (down from $0.74/share due to spot gas price adjustment) to GAS against a reference share price of $0.15/share.

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Daily Brief Thailand: Ngern Tid Lor and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely; Banpu Still Not Safe from Deletion


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely; Banpu Still Not Safe from Deletion

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
  • With roughly half of the 3-month reference period now complete, I see three changes for the SET 50 index but one of those names is still close to the border.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Lock&Lock, Jeil Machine & Solution and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Lock&Lock Tender Offer: Different Trading Angles Compared to Recent Ssangyong C&E Case
  • Lock & Lock: Affinity Equity Partners Offers a Tender Offer of a 30% Stake at 8,750 Won Per Share
  • Jeil M&S IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis


Lock&Lock Tender Offer: Different Trading Angles Compared to Recent Ssangyong C&E Case

By Sanghyun Park

  • The tendering price is ₩8,750, roughly 7% higher than the last close. However, Affinity’s commitment makes this event noteworthy.
  • Lock&Lock requires Affinity to target 30%. To reach 95%, securing 25% is needed, much higher than SsangYong C&E, indicating potential price volatility.
  • A second public offering is likely due to the widening gap between the ownership threshold and actual acquisition percentage in Lock&Lock. This could impact prices significantly during the tendering period.

Lock & Lock: Affinity Equity Partners Offers a Tender Offer of a 30% Stake at 8,750 Won Per Share

By Douglas Kim

  • On 17 April, Affinity Equity Partners offered a tender offer of a 30% stake in Lock & Lock at 8,750 won per share.
  • The tender offer period is from 18 April to 14 May.  The number of shares that are included in this tender offer is 13.14 million shares (30.33% of outstanding shares).  
  • Lock & Lock’s share price could trade higher close to the tender offer price of 8,750 won as the date as the end of the tender offer period approaches.

Jeil M&S IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Jeil M&S reported excellent IPO bookbuilding results. Jeil M&S’s IPO price has been determined at 22,000 won per share (22% higher than the high end of the IPO price range).
  • A total of 2,164 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building. The demand ratio was 646 to 1. Samhyun will start trading on 30 April 2024. 
  • Our base case valuation of Jeil M&S is target price of 24,354 won per share, which is 11% higher than the IPO price.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Singapore Post and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • kopi-C with SingPost’s Group CFO: “We’re building a Singapore-branded global logistics company”


kopi-C with SingPost’s Group CFO: “We’re building a Singapore-branded global logistics company”

By Geoff Howie

  • kopi-C with SingPost’s CFO: “We’re building a Singapore-branded global logistics company” Its Group Chief Financial Officer Vincent Yik explains its strategy.
  • With the decline in demand for postal services over the years, Singapore Post (SingPost), the country’s postal service provider, is pivoting to the logistics sector to survive and thrive, shares its Group Chief Financial Officer Vincent Yik.

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Daily Brief United States: Hollysys Automation Technologies, Lumen Technologies, Pegasystems Inc, Las Vegas Sands, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Sherwin Williams Co, SolarEdge Technologies , Winmark Corp, Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings, Homestreet Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Hollysys (HOLI US): This Is A Buy
  • Lumen Technologies: Its Digital Platform Is Harnessing Multibillion-Dollar Opportunity! – Major Drivers
  • Pegasystems Inc: Generative AI
  • Las Vegas Sands Corp.: Intense Competition in the Premium Mass Segment & 3 Other Major Challenges In Its Path! – Key Drivers
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals: Bolstering Cell Therapy Research with 2seventy Bio Acquisition! – Major Drivers
  • The Sherwin-Williams Company: Can Its Dominant Market Position Last? – Major Drivers
  • SolarEdge Technologies Inc.: Expansion of Commercial Segment & Geographical Shift Changing The Game? – Major Drivers
  • Winmark: Resale at Scale – [Business Breakdowns, EP.159]
  • Laboratory Corporation of America (LabCorp): Significant Growth Momentum In The Diagnostics & Women’s Health Can Revolutionize Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Homestreet Inc (HMST) – Wednesday, Jan 17, 2024


Hollysys (HOLI US): This Is A Buy

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 8th February 2024, 85% of Hollysys Automation (HOLI US) shareholders present and via proxy, voted for Ascendent Capital’s Offer. After three-plus years, the end was finally in sight.
  • Then crickets. The merger was to complete in the 1Q. On the 15th April, HOLI released an accountant resignation notice. No word on dissenters or regulatory approvals. Shares sold off. 
  • The accountant resignation is a nothing burger. HOLI should lift their game and provide more transparency on the outstanding merger conditions. Still, the spread is attractive. This is a buy. 

Lumen Technologies: Its Digital Platform Is Harnessing Multibillion-Dollar Opportunity! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lumen Technologies’ Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings revealed significant progress in the company’s business transformation.
  • Led by the efforts of the new executive team under CEO Kathleen Johnson, Lumen indicated that it had met its 2023 EBITDA and free cash flow guidance and had made material progress in its strategic priorities.
  • To strengthen its balance sheet, Lumen entered into an agreement with a majority of its creditors that extends most debt maturities to 2029.

Pegasystems Inc: Generative AI

By Baptista Research

  • Pegasystems Inc. has noted robust cash flow growth and value delivered to its clients in Q4 of 2023.
  • The company has adopted a new go-to-market strategy that has been received well by the team, leading to strong customer relationships.
  • The company has focused on AI utilization to introduce industry-changing technologies, which has resulted in increased growth and cash flow.

Las Vegas Sands Corp.: Intense Competition in the Premium Mass Segment & 3 Other Major Challenges In Its Path! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Las Vegas Sands Corp.
  • reported that Macao delivered $654 million of EBITDA for the quarter, a significant enhancement since the coronavirus pandemic’s end.
  • According to them, robust growth in both gaming and non-gaming revenues is anticipated, propelled by their substantial share in non rolling table win, rolling table win, and slot ETG win.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals: Bolstering Cell Therapy Research with 2seventy Bio Acquisition! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.’s latest earnings highlighted several critical developments and financial performance data that shape its investment appeal.
  • Among the company’s accomplishments in 2023 were the FDA approval and successful launch of its EYLEA HD, a promising treatment for patients with wet age-related macular degeneration and diabetic eye diseases, which had strong start despite initial delays.
  • Additionally, the company won a notable legal battle to preserve its intellectual property related to EYLEA, which deterred infringements from a biosimilar manufacturer, potentially deterring future biosimilar launches.

The Sherwin-Williams Company: Can Its Dominant Market Position Last? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sherwin-Williams Company, a global leader in the paint and coatings industry, reported a promising review of their fourth quarter 2023 results and outlook for the first quarter and full year of 2024.
  • The company has experienced positive growth, with sales growing 4.1% to $23.1 billion and adjusted earnings per share growing 18.6% to $10.35 a share.
  • Sherwin-Williams demonstrated robust financial performance during the fourth quarter that has resulted in a record year for the company.

SolarEdge Technologies Inc.: Expansion of Commercial Segment & Geographical Shift Changing The Game? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • SolarEdge deemed its Q4 2023 and full-year results as clouded by adverse market dynamics and high inventory levels.
  • For Q4, SolarEdge reported revenues of about $316 million, split between $282 million in their solar business and $33 million in non-solar activities.
  • The company shipped 2.2 million power optimizers and 74,000 inverters during the quarter, along with 133-megawatt hours of batteries.

Winmark: Resale at Scale – [Business Breakdowns, EP.159]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Winmark operates five resale brands through a franchising model, including Plato’s Closet and Play It Again Sports
  • The company’s focus is on providing access to quality used products at value pricing, contributing to the circular economy
  • CEO Brett Heface discusses the dynamics of managing the brands, growth strategies, and the company’s mission to provide resale for everyone

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Laboratory Corporation of America (LabCorp): Significant Growth Momentum In The Diagnostics & Women’s Health Can Revolutionize Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings’ Q4 2023 highlighted a robust performance, driven by strong base business revenue growth.
  • Discussing Q4 results, revenues reached $3 billion, adjusted earnings per share was $3.30, and free cash flow from operations, excluding spin-related items, was $422 million.
  • Enterprise revenue grew by 4% compared to Q4 2022, led by an 8% growth in the Diagnostics business and 7% growth in the Biopharma business.

Homestreet Inc (HMST) – Wednesday, Jan 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • HomeStreet Inc. focuses on MultiFamily lending in western states and recently surged in stock value due to a merger agreement with FirstSun Capital Bancorp
  • Shareholders of HomeStreet will receive shares of FSUN under the deal, expected to close in the middle of 2024
  • The author recommends building a position in FSUN, believing it is undervalued and has potential growth over the next 3 years

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief India: Canara Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Canara Bank – Radically Lower NPLs and Sharply Expanding Net Profit


Canara Bank – Radically Lower NPLs and Sharply Expanding Net Profit

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Canara Bank has seen stunning profit expansion over the past several years
  • Lower NPLs can drive lower credit costs to support profit expansion further
  • ROE moved from 11.7% to 17.3% over the past several years

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Daily Brief China: Hang Lung Properties, Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical, Miniso, Cloudchain, Belle Fashion Group, Mao Geping Cosmetics, Longfor Properties and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Lung Group: Thoughts On HLP’s Scrip Dividend
  • Hang Lung Properties (101 HK): Scrip Div Helps the Family to Chip Away at Minorities
  • ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Overlap Between the Indices
  • [Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$34) Target Price Change]: IP Strategy Successfully Drove China Sales
  • Cloudchain Pre-IPO – The Negatives – But Still Not Convinced
  • Pre-IPO Belle Fashion Group – Performance Has Picked Up, but Not yet Reversed
  • Mao Geping Cosmetics Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Morning Views Asia: Meituan


Hang Lung Group: Thoughts On HLP’s Scrip Dividend

By David Blennerhassett

  • And eagle-eyed reader spotted Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)‘s scrip dividend option for the FY23 final dividend. That’s the first time I’ve seen HLP provide this alternative. 
  • Over the years, the Chan family and Hang Lung (10 HK) have chipped away at HLG’s and HLP’s minorities. HLP and HLG are currently trading at all-time low P/Bs. 
  • This scrip dividend, which takes a page out of Jardine Matheson (JM SP)‘s playbook, would boost HLG’s stake in HLP to ~63% from 61.24% currently; if opting only for scrip.

Hang Lung Properties (101 HK): Scrip Div Helps the Family to Chip Away at Minorities

By Arun George

  • In its final results on 30 January, the Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) board declared a final dividend of HK$0.60 per share, which can be paid in cash or by scrip.
  • The Chan family’s share of outstanding shares has steadily increased from 53.15% in 2013 to 61.89%. The scrip dividend could increase the family to 63.57% of post-dividend outstanding shares. 
  • The Chan family have plenty of headroom to chip away at minorities before breaching the 25% public float requirements. HPL’s valuation is undemanding, but a privatisation offer is unlikely.

ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Overlap Between the Indices

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 8 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.
  • There are overlapping names for the two indices and some of the stocks will also have flows from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index – Shang (SH000905 INDEX) trackers.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes between 9-10% for both indices over the last month with the deletes dropping a lot more than the adds.

[Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$34) Target Price Change]: IP Strategy Successfully Drove China Sales

By Eric Wen

  • We expect Miniso’s revenue for C1Q/2Q24 to be 1.0%/2.7% higher than consensus due to adequate inventory and strong sales of the Chiikawa series. 
  • We believe Miniso has found a new competency in quickly turning around IP sales through economies of scale in supply chain and store network.
  • We maintain the stock as BUY and raise our TP by US$3 to US$34/ADS.

Cloudchain Pre-IPO – The Negatives – But Still Not Convinced

By Ethan Aw

  • Cloudchain (CC CH) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO. 
  • Cloudchain is an independent industry digital finance platform in China, serving anchor enterprises, chain-related enterprises, and financial institutions.
  • In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Pre-IPO Belle Fashion Group – Performance Has Picked Up, but Not yet Reversed

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The core of Belle’s transformation is to inject “digitalization” into existing massive store assets, with strategy of “omnichannel+multi brands”. Belle also devotes significant resources to online channels and online-to-offline integration.
  • Benefiting from the DTC retail model, Belle increases the probability of success when launching products. Licensing/acquisition are important ways to empower new brands and promote growth. Belle’s performance has rebounded.
  • However, the path of transformation hasn’t yet been completed. Belle still mainly relies on heavy asset mode and is exposed to inventory risks. There ‘s still room for further improvement.

Mao Geping Cosmetics Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Mao Geping Cosmetics (1478187D CH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunner on the deal is CICC.
  • Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.
  • As per F&S, MGC was the only domestic market player among the top ten premium beauty groups in China, ranking eighth by 2022 retail sales.

Morning Views Asia: Meituan

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Japan: Shinko Electric Industries, JSR Corp, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Mitsubishi Estate, Nexon and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Shinko Electric (6967) – Break/Gap Risk Update
  • JSR (4185) – Deal Done, Now Back End Arbs Need To Be Card Counters
  • The Solution to Better Corporate Governance Is to Reduce the # of Companies with Large Shareholders
  • 8802 Mitsubishi Estate – Another Play on Japan RE and Office – Chase the Rally
  • Nexon (TSE:3659) – Wednesday, Jan 17, 2024


Shinko Electric (6967) – Break/Gap Risk Update

By Travis Lundy

  • When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider. 
  • 12wks ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco’d a buy. Then 5wks ago, reco’d trimming.
  • Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, and gross spreads had come in 5+% on JSR’s approval. Spreads are now 3% wider than their narrowest, but gap risk has widened as Shinko outperforms.

JSR (4185) – Deal Done, Now Back End Arbs Need To Be Card Counters

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, the results of the JSR Corp (4185 JP) Tender Offer were announced. Bidco JICC-02 obtained 84.36% of the shares out in the Tender Offer. 
  • That means imminent index downweights, delayed index downweights, and theoretically another selldown on the last day of listed existence. 
  • News which came up since the start of the Tender Offer make this a little more difficult than it might have otherwise been. 

The Solution to Better Corporate Governance Is to Reduce the # of Companies with Large Shareholders

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since “profitability of capital” like ROE or ROIC cannot create value in mid-to-long-term without improvement, the fact that ROE has stalled is a cause for concern for future stock prices.
  • The slow growth in Net Profit Margin and the sluggish improvement in Asset Turnover and Financial Leverage indicate that it is still holding too much cash, cross-held shares, etc. 
  • Nearly half of all listed companies are companies with major shareholders of 20% or more, which is an obstacle to improving corporate governance.

8802 Mitsubishi Estate – Another Play on Japan RE and Office – Chase the Rally

By Jacob Cheng

  • In this insight, we explore Mitsubishi Estate, who is the second largest real estate company in terms of market cap
  • Mitsubishi Estate major business is in office (Tokyo CBD), residential/condo, as well as some retail and hotel
  • Japan stock market is upbeat and saw the largest inflow among Asia YTD.  8802 valuation is not demanding.

Nexon (TSE:3659) – Wednesday, Jan 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Nexon is a leader in the video game virtual worlds industry with an enterprise value of $11.4 billion
  • The company has consistently high EBIT margins and a robust portfolio of popular franchises that have generated billions in revenue
  • Despite being undervalued by the market compared to its peers, Nexon is poised for significant growth and offers potential for future success for investors

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 12th): HMM and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 12th): HMM, LG Electronics


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 12th): HMM, LG Electronics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Apr 12th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD6.7bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in HMM, LG Electronics .

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Daily Brief ESG: The Solution to Better Corporate Governance Is to Reduce the # of Companies with Large Shareholders and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • The Solution to Better Corporate Governance Is to Reduce the # of Companies with Large Shareholders


The Solution to Better Corporate Governance Is to Reduce the # of Companies with Large Shareholders

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since “profitability of capital” like ROE or ROIC cannot create value in mid-to-long-term without improvement, the fact that ROE has stalled is a cause for concern for future stock prices.
  • The slow growth in Net Profit Margin and the sluggish improvement in Asset Turnover and Financial Leverage indicate that it is still holding too much cash, cross-held shares, etc. 
  • Nearly half of all listed companies are companies with major shareholders of 20% or more, which is an obstacle to improving corporate governance.

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