Daily Briefs

The MV Junior Gold Miners index tracks the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. Lots of AUM on the ETF means big impact sometimes.
There will be no index changes for the December 2026 rebal event. However, we currently expect a one-way flow of US$43mm for December 2026 due to capping/re-capping.
The Vault-Genesis deal is expected to complete before the December 2026 rebal. Vault faces over two months of ADV to sell and Genesis over a month to buy, both US$1bn+.

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec26 Rebal: No Changes Likely; Vault-Genesis Deal Flows

The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large- and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. It underlies the biggest listed sector ETF (GDX).
We currently don’t see any index changes for the December 2026 rebal. The potential ADDs would need to significantly outperform to trigger an index change.
The Vault-Genesis deal is likely to complete before the December 2026 rebal and is expected to trigger passive flows in MV Global Gold and MV Junior Gold Miners indices.

Northern Star (NST AU): Gold Fields Rejection Justified, Sweetened Bid Likely

Northern Star Resources (NST AU) rejected Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)‘s proposal (0.3125 shares plus A$7.25 cash, implied A$27.00, 22.1% premium). It cited undervaluation, scrip risk, opportunistic timing and onerous conditions.
Elliott, the key activist, needs a higher offer. Its return would be modest; NST’s turnaround has barely started; Gold Fields keeps most synergies; and hard exclusivity shuts out rival bidders.
Gold Fields will likely return at around A$28–30, with more cash and no hard exclusivity. Synergies and past deals support this, but the deal’s size acts as a constraint.

Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Dec26 Rebal: ~US$7bn One-Way Flow, Expected To Grow

By Anjana Amarasuriya

The SP Select Sector indices are a family of 11 sector-specific indices derived from the SP 500 index based on GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) classifications.
Intra-Review changes from two M&A deals and a spin-off could trigger Select Sector flows before the December 2026 rebalance.
We expect one-way flows of ~US$7bn across the Select Sector indices, which should grow as the December 2026 rebalance approaches.

Geo Energy: Direct Hormuz Play, Limited by Domestic Reforms

By RHT Capital

Structural cost reset, not a coal-price bet.
The MBJ integrated haul road + barging chain (capex ~US$150 mil) removes third-party trucking on TRA coal and takes ~US$7–8/t out of the annual cost base.
That is a self-help margin gain that survives a flat coal price.

Aequitas: Red Avenue New Materials A/H IPO Trading – Weak Insti and Retail Demand

By Nicholas Tan

Red Avenue New Materials Group (RANMG HK) raised ~US$380m in its Hong Kong IPO.
It operates across rubber additives for tyres and other chemical products, electronic materials, and fully biodegradable materials.
In this note, we look at its past performance, valuation, and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Stylam Industries: Promoter Change, A New Era?

By Nimish Maheshwari

Aica-Kogyo of Japan now holds 40% of Stylam and sits as joint-promoter, after one branch of the founding Gupta family exited entirely and another stayed on to run the company.
A boardroom rift that had capped Stylam’s valuation multiple is now resolved, and HDFC Securities has re-rated the stock on governance clarity alone, before counting any Aica synergy.
The real story is not the stake sale, it’s the asymmetry: who left, who stayed, and what that split implies for capital allocation, exports and the next capacity cycle.

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review – 25 Sep ’26

By Iain Pocock

Asia’s spare capacity is filling gaps left by tighter US, European and Middle East supply, but recovering demand and fourth-quarter maintenance will test its limits.

Traditional suppliers are losing export availability, giving Asian producers more room to meet requirements in the US, Europe and other overseas markets.
The response spans the region, with South Korea, Taiwan, India, Singapore and China all sending cargoes beyond Asia.

Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Evolving Beyond Iron Ore as Copper Becomes the Second Earnings Engine

By Sameer Taneja

Copper delivered 36% of divisional EBITDA in H1 FY26 (US$5.7bn, 66% margin), up from 6.5% in H2 FY23, as Oyu Tolgoi underground ramps up.
Iron ore’s share has halved to 43%, with EBITDA/t down 65% from its peak; capex is rotating to Simandou, the Pilbara replacement, lithium, and aluminum, while copper enters harvest.
Valuation at 13.7x FY26e P/E, 7.3x EV/EBITDA and 5.1% yield. We analyze the Rio Tinto (RIO US) pivot

Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Focus on VLO: Strong Position with Heavy-Crude Advantage…

By Water Tower Research

New York awarded 1.7 GW of renewable and energy storage projects backed by more than US$3.7 billion in investment, targeting operation by 2030.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is preparing to relax federal fuel economy standards, lowering the 2031 target to 34.5 mpg and rolling back EV-supportive policies, drawing criticism from environmental groups.
The EPA also proposed repealing Biden-era power plant rules that required carbon capture or closure, a move advocates say could raise emissions, notably in Georgia.

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Sep 29

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Beijing DeepZero Technology, Iluvatar CoreX, Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Accelevation Holdings, Lazada Group, RoboTechnik Intelligent Technology, Shenzhen Transsion Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Sharing What I Heard Directly from a KRX Index Official Today on Sector Change for KOSPI 200 Rebal
HSCI / HK Connect Sep 2026: Post-Implementation Review
HS TECH September 2026 Rebalance: Post-Implementation Review
ESWIN Computing (奕斯伟计算) IPO: Analysis of Deal Terms and Valuation
HSI Sep 2026 Index Rebalance: Post-Implementation Review
Accelevation (ACCV) Brings Data Center Infrastructure to Nasdaq in $660 Million IPO
Lazada: Prioritising Margin Over Scale in a Three-Player Market (Initiation)
RoboTechnik (罗博特科) IPO Trading
Transsion (传音控股) A+H Pre-IPO: PHIP Updates
Aequitas: Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology IPO – Limited Margin Uplift, Offered At A Premium

Sharing What I Heard Directly from a KRX Index Official Today on Sector Change for KOSPI 200 Rebal

By Sanghyun Park

KRX says the new KRICS framework should stay fairly close to GICS, so using GICS as the base case is the best way to forecast sector mapping at this point.
KRX simulations show the KRICS switch should not materially change the size of December KOSPI 200 adds and deletes, with existing market cap buffer rules absorbing most sector driven changes.
Nonetheless, sector uncertainty makes cutoff calls harder, likely delaying KOSPI 200 pre positioning and flow signals until late October, when the new mapping is released.

HSCI / HK Connect Sep 2026: Post-Implementation Review

HK Connect’s September 2026 implementation had 53 ADDs and 15 DELETEs. We review the first implementation week vs history.
ADDs fell in the first implementation week, vs the historical pattern of a first-week gain. Implementation day accounted for most of the average first-week drop.
DELETEs fell further than the historical first-week decline, except Low-vel DELETEs.

HS TECH September 2026 Rebalance: Post-Implementation Review

HS TECH September 2026 had 1 ADD and 1 DELETE. With the first implementation week complete, we review current-cycle performance vs history.
Iluvatar Corex fell through the first implementation week after its bridge decline. The negative-bridge ADD pattern held, with a deeper fall than the historical average.
Tongcheng Travel also kept falling after implementation. The negative-bridge DELETE pattern held, and its decline was deeper than the historical average.

ESWIN Computing (奕斯伟计算) IPO: Analysis of Deal Terms and Valuation

ESWIN Computing, a RISC-V oriented chip product provider, launched its Hong Kong IPO to raise USD 318m. CITIC and CSC are the joint sponsors.
In this note, we look at the deal terms and provide our thoughts on valuation for the company.
We analyze cornerstone and sponsor performance and assess the risk-reward of the deal.

HSI Sep 2026 Index Rebalance: Post-Implementation Review

The HSI Sep 2026 implementation included two ADDs, and the first implementation week is complete.
Both ADDs rose on implementation day, unlike most historical negative-bridge ADDs.
The first week split. Weichai Power ended down, in line with history, and Hua Hong Grace ended up.

Accelevation (ACCV) Brings Data Center Infrastructure to Nasdaq in $660 Million IPO

By IPO Prophet

Accelevation Holdings Corp. (ACCV) plans to sell 30.0 million shares of Class A common stock at $20 to $24 per share and list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market .
At the $22 midpoint , the offering would total $660 million and imply an approximately $4.92 billion equity value on an as-exchanged basis , which includes the LLC units that existing owners can exchange for Class A shares.
Accelevation is issuing 8.64 million shares, while existing stockholders are selling 21.36 million shares.

Lazada: Prioritising Margin Over Scale in a Three-Player Market (Initiation)

By Beier Luo

Executive Summary

Strategic Pivot to Profitability: Lazada operates a mature third-party e-commerce marketplace across six Southeast Asian countries, connecting approximately 160.0m active monthly users with local and international brands, and now ranks third in the region by GMV. Having shifted its operational focus from aggressive market share acquisition towards sustainable margins, the platform recorded its first month of positive EBITDA in July 2024, and has since executed a 5.0% regional workforce reduction while integrating artificial intelligence to drive conversion efficiency, although revenue is estimated to have declined by around 11% in FY2026.
Proprietary Infrastructure and Strategic Backing: The core value driver is the company’s structural moat, underpinned by an end-to-end proprietary logistics network spanning 17 cities and the advanced Project Voyager technology stack. This operational advantage is secured by the deep financial and strategic backing of its parent company, Alibaba Group, which provides a highly secure runway in a regional platform market that reached US$157.6b in 2025.
Intense Competition and Share Loss: The platform faces fierce rivalry from Shopee, the regional market leader, and fast-growing social-commerce challengers such as TikTok Shop, which benefit from lower customer acquisition costs and higher organic engagement and have already pushed Lazada into third place by GMV. Further share erosion could force a return to margin-compressing promotional spending, particularly if rivals continue to weaponise pricing, seller subsidies and integrated video commerce capabilities.

RoboTechnik (罗博特科) IPO Trading

RoboTechnik, a photovoltaic and silicon photonics manufacturing equipment maker, raised HKD 4,961.3m (USD 632.5m) from its global offering and will list on HKEX on Tuesday, 29 Sep 2026.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s fundamentals and the deal terms.
In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before its trading debut.

Transsion (传音控股) A+H Pre-IPO: PHIP Updates

Transsion, a mobile phone maker focused on Africa and other emerging markets, is seeking an A+H listing. CITIC is the sole sponsor.
While our previous note covers the fundamentals of the company, in this note we look at its 1H26 results, changes and valuation versus our previous note.
The recovery held up in 1H while maket position weakened.

Aequitas: Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology IPO – Limited Margin Uplift, Offered At A Premium

By Hong Jie Seow

Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology (ESWIN HK) is looking to raise up to US$318m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Beijing ESWIN Computing (ESWIN) is a fabless chip product provider based in China that specializes in researching, designing, and commercializing hardware-software integrated semiconductor solutions built on the open-source RISC-V architecture.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance and valuations.

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Sep 29

Daily Brief Industrials: Korea Aerospace Industries, Nidec Corp, BYD Company, Yinson Holdings, Bodycote, Samsung SDI, Leong Guan Holdings, Direct Drive Tech, EasyPost, Path Robotics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Hanwha Aerospace and Other Hanwha Affiliates Now Own 15.9% of KAI – Next Move?
NIDEC Corp. (6594 JP): JP¥1tn Shock Has Not Finished the Job: Price Discovery Is Still Ahead
BYD (1211): Mid-Term Value Opportunity
Yinson (YNS MK): MISC Re-Affirms Talks. But Terms Not Firmed
Bodycote: CVC Walks, Veritas Pays You to Wait
Samsung SDI (006400): Re-Rate Soon
Chairmen Build Stakes as Seatrium Doubles Buyback Programme
Aequitas: Direct Drive IPO Trading – Lowest Insti Demand For The Year
Primer: EasyPost – 28 Sep 2026
Primer: Path Robotics – 28 Sep 2026

Hanwha Aerospace and Other Hanwha Affiliates Now Own 15.9% of KAI – Next Move?

In the past several months, Hanwha Group companies purchased additional shares in Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) so their combined stake is now 15.89%.
Hanwha Aerospace owns 9.9% stake in KAI, followed by Hanwha Systems (4.98%), and Hanwha Aerospace USA (1.01%).
I provide four main scenarios of the potential next moves by the Hanwha Group companies regarding Korea Aerospace Industries.

NIDEC Corp. (6594 JP): JP¥1tn Shock Has Not Finished the Job: Price Discovery Is Still Ahead

By Mo Aziz

The ¥1tn impairment remains unconfirmed, but the market has already lost ¥500bn — pricing roughly half the reported accounting damage.
EV motors delivered <40% of target revenue, China share has effectively disappeared, and the CEO exit leaves a governance vacuum.
AVOID / REDUCE: ¥2,000 target; wait for audit resolution as ¥2,405 still offers little margin of safety and downside remains asymmetric.

BYD (1211): Mid-Term Value Opportunity

By Henry Soediarko

Overseas revenue is 60-100% more profitable, and interestingly, it has reached more than 50% of BYD’s total revenue for the first time.
The recent recall is not significant enough to dent the group’s overall business. BYD Company (1211 HK) has one of the highest overseas sales contributions compared to the peers.
The lower valuation, combined with a stronger operation including higher overall margin thanks to the growing overseas business, presents an opportunity to own BYD.

Yinson (YNS MK): MISC Re-Affirms Talks. But Terms Not Firmed

Yinson Holdings (YNS MK), an energy infrastructure play, has re-affirmed privatisation talks with MISC (MISC MK), the founding Lim family, and EPF, at RM2.35/share, by way of a Scheme.
Yinson Legacy, a vehicle tied to Yinson’s exec chair Lim Han Weng and his family hold 27.68%. EPF intends to roll-up its 17.09% into a back-end unlisted vehicle.
Indicative terms are light. MISC will be able to unlock material interest savings rolling up Yinson’s debt exposure. 1H27 results are out tomorrow.

Bodycote: CVC Walks, Veritas Pays You to Wait

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CVC has withdrawn under Rule 2.8, leaving Veritas Capital’s recommended 940p acquisition as the only live offer.
At 918p, Bodycote offers a 2.40% gross spread and approximately 5.3% annualised return to the expected 15 March Effective Date.
Shareholder meetings are scheduled for 21 October, with regulatory approvals across the US and Europe the main remaining source of timing risk.

Samsung SDI (006400): Re-Rate Soon

By Henry Soediarko

Samsung SDI (006400 KS) returned to profitability earlier than expected, thanks to the pivot to AI data center back up system and key EV partnerships.
Contrary to popular belief, the AMPC (credit for being green in the US), is still active and contributed to SDI’s bottom meaningfully.
As the valuation is relatively depressed right now, we should expect some sort of the Value Up program to kick in and the share price should re-rate.

Chairmen Build Stakes as Seatrium Doubles Buyback Programme

Over five sessions, 60 director interests and substantial shareholdings were filed, including 23 acquisitions and two disposals by directors/CEOs.
Seatrium launched a new S$200 million Share Buyback Programme, funded from existing cash, doubling the previous programme.
Alan Goh of Katrina Group sold 12.6 million shares, reducing his interest to 76.7%, with BYD By 1826 acquiring 5%.

Aequitas: Direct Drive IPO Trading – Lowest Insti Demand For The Year

By Hong Jie Seow

Direct Drive Tech (DDT HK) raised US$138m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Direct Drive Tech Limited (DDT) is a China-based robotics technology company that specializes in direct drive technology as its core capability.
We have looked at the company’s background and pricing in our earlier note, in this note we talk about the trading dynamics.

Primer: EasyPost – 28 Sep 2026

By Sacra

In May 2021, EasyPost said it had entered the year with a $100M revenue run rate after achieving record growth in 2020, when the COVID-era e-commerce boom increased demand for parcel shipping and multi-carrier logistics software.
EasyPost's most recent priced round was a $25M Series B-2 in September 2021, valuing the company at $1.52B post-money.
The 2026 UCC foreclosure auction of approximately 16% of EasyPost's outstanding common shares signals potential stress or leverage at the shareholder or financing level, and although the auction involved an equity interest rather than operating assets, it introduces governance and capitalization risk as the company invests in enterprise sales, AI, and international expansion.

Primer: Path Robotics – 28 Sep 2026

By Sacra

Path Robotics has raised approximately $370 million, according to management in September 2026.
Management said the 2025 growth spanned at least 14 industrial customers and expects another 3x revenue increase in 2026.
At the July 2026 MACHINA Summit, CEO Andy Lonsberry said Path’s revenue had increased 15x over the preceding 15 months.

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Sep 29

Daily Brief Health Care: Oura, ADARx Pharmaceuticals, Boditech Med, Alphamab Co Ltd, Cipher Pharmaceuticals , Discovery Loop, ISDN, Lakewood-Amedex Biotherapeutics, CStone Pharmaceuticals, Cannara Biotech and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Oura Inc. (OURA US): Oura’s $14.4 Billion IPO: A Smart Ring With Big Ambitions
ADARx Pharmaceuticals (ADRX) Finishes 13.8% Above IPO Price After Strong Opening
Primer: Boditech Med (206640 KS) – Sep 2026
Alphamab Oncology (9966 HK): Phase III Candidates, Pending Approvals Waiting To Unlock Value
Cipher Pharmaceuticals Fits the OG Definition of Being a CHUD
Primer: Discovery Loop – 28 Sep 2026
Net Institutional Inflow Reversals into Late September
LABT: First Patient Dosed in Phase 2a Trial of Nu-3 for Infected Diabetic Foot Ulcers
CStone Pharma (2616 HK): Pharma Products Picking Up, Pipeline 2.0 Showing Potential
LOVE: Q4 Preview and Hifyre Data Review; Staying Bullish

Oura Inc. (OURA US): Oura’s $14.4 Billion IPO: A Smart Ring With Big Ambitions

By IPO Boutique

Differentiated health-tech platform: Oura combines wearable technology, biometric data and recurring subscriptions, with approximately 5 million paid members.
Rapid growth: Latest-twelve-month revenue reached approximately $1.43 billion, while paid membership doubled year over year.
Valuation remains a key consideration: The proposed valuation represents a meaningful premium to its October 2025 private financing, despite improving margins and cash generation.

ADARx Pharmaceuticals (ADRX) Finishes 13.8% Above IPO Price After Strong Opening

By IPO Prophet

September 25, 2026 ADARx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq: ADRX) delivered a strong opening in its public-market debut, opening at $22.10 , exactly 30.0% above its $17.00 IPO price .
The company priced at the top of its marketed $15.00-$17.00 range and increased the offering to 26.25 million shares , raising $446.25 million .
The strong opening reflected significant initial demand, with ADRX reaching an intraday high of $23.21.

Primer: Boditech Med (206640 KS) – Sep 2026

Boditech Med Inc. (206640 KS) is a leading South Korea-based in vitro diagnostics (IVD) company specializing in Point-of-Care Testing (POCT) analyzers (ichroma™ and AFIAS platforms) and consumable diagnostic reagent cartridges across more than 120 global markets.
Following post-pandemic normalization, the company has delivered strong organic revenue expansion, reaching KRW 162.1bn in 2025 (+17.3% YoY) with sustained gross profit margins above 56% and EBITDA margins in the 23-26% range, powered by non-COVID test menus across cardiovascular, latent tuberculosis (IGRA-TB), therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM), and diabetes.
Trading at attractive valuation multiples relative to global IVD peers (~7.5-8.5x trailing P/E and ~1.1x P/B), Boditech Med combines robust balance sheet resilience (net cash position), consistent dividend distributions (1.6% yield), and multiple regulatory commercial catalysts in North America and Europe.

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Alphamab Oncology (9966 HK): Phase III Candidates, Pending Approvals Waiting To Unlock Value

By Tina Banerjee

Alphamab Co Ltd (9966 HK) reported drop of 15% YoY in revenue, driven by licensing income. Recorded loss of RMB 40.5M in 1H26 (vs profit of RMB 21.6M in 1H25).
The NDA of KN026 in combination with docetaxel, as neoadjuvant treatment for HER2+ BC and as first-line treatment of HER2+ advanced BC is under priority review and approval procedure.
We feel the trial results, approvals and launches of various candidates lined up would act as further triggers to the stock price. We prefer to be bullish on the name.

Cipher Pharmaceuticals Fits the OG Definition of Being a CHUD

By Left Field Investing

Most individuals could not give 2 shits about any of the IP Cipher Pharmaceuticals has or is licensed with.
In that way it’s much closer to a market failure than anything someone did wrong, as Eli Lilly was more than capable of turning spinosad into a topical for scabies.
Hell, a baby could turn spinosad into a topical for scabies if you have spinosad and lotion and you were to just dump them together onto a tray.

Primer: Discovery Loop – 28 Sep 2026

By Sacra

Discovery Loop announced its initial financing on August 5, 2026, led by Radical Ventures and Khosla Ventures.
Discovery Loop’s first external revenue could come from design-partner engagements with frontier AI laboratories and large enterprise R&D organizations, potentially beginning in late 2027.
The founding team has experience across distributed systems, AI models, accelerator design, and production products, consistent with the company’s view that automated discovery at scale depends on systems engineering as well as model performance.

Net Institutional Inflow Reversals into Late September

Institutional investors recorded a net outflow of S$336 million across Singapore-listed stocks from 31 August to 25 September.
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding saw the largest reversal with S$73.78 million net buying from 14–25 September after prior net selling.
UI Boustead REIT and CapitaLand Ascott Trust reversed outflows with recent net buying of S$17.23 million and S$6.70 million, respectively.

LABT: First Patient Dosed in Phase 2a Trial of Nu-3 for Infected Diabetic Foot Ulcers

By Zacks Small Cap Research

On September 24, 2026, Lakewood-Amedex Biotherapeutics, Inc. (LABT) announced that the first patient has been dosed in the Phase 2a clinical trial of Nu-3 for the treatment of diabetic foot ulcers.
It is.
Multicenter, single blind, dose-finding study designed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of three Nu-3 gel concentrations (2%, 5%, and 10%).

CStone Pharma (2616 HK): Pharma Products Picking Up, Pipeline 2.0 Showing Potential

By Tina Banerjee

CStone Pharmaceuticals (2616 HK) posted revenue of RMB 205.1M (vs RMB 49.4M in 1H25) as sales of Gavreto (pralsetinib) increased substantially following its successful inclusion in the NRDL.
R&D expenses increased 95% to RMB 205.5M due to increased ongoing clinical trials. Company ended 1H26 with a loss of RMB 252.3M vs loss of RMB 270.2M in 1H25.
Sugemalimab awaiting launches in new overseas territories, Aykavit and Gavreto sales slowly picking and CS2009 showing encouraging trial results pose a positive outlook about the company.

LOVE: Q4 Preview and Hifyre Data Review; Staying Bullish

By Atrium Research

Cannara continues to defend and grow its position amongst LPs throughout geographies and segments, highlighting management execution.
We see several opportunities for Cannara to further penetrate the market as additional grow rooms activate and new products launch.
LOVE is expected to report its Q4 and FY26 financials in late November, for which we expect 17% revenue growth and 11% Adj. EBITDA growth.

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Sep 29

Daily Brief Financials: Ingenia Communities, FnGuide Inc, Get Nice, Singapura Finance, Bank Of Baroda, American Financial Group, Leong Guan Holdings, Instone Real Estate and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Ingenia Communities (INA AU) Mulls Warburg’s Third Proposal
FnGuide – Significant Improvement in the New Value-Up Program
Get Nice Holdings (64 HK): Low-Risk Scheme Vote on 26 October
Ingenia (INA AU): Warburg’s Third Offer at A$5.25 Puts the Board on the Clock
Singapura Finance Ltd Company Update (11 September 2026)
India: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (29 Sep 2026)
American Financial Group’s $125 Million Charleston Harbor Gain Could Lift Investment Income Further!
Chairmen Build Stakes as Seatrium Doubles Buyback Programme
Get Nice (64 HK): 26th October Vote On Hung’s Low-Balled Offer.
Monday Delight: 28/09/2026

Ingenia Communities (INA AU) Mulls Warburg’s Third Proposal

Ingenia Communities (INA AU)‘s share price declined ~13% as shareholders didn’t take kindly to its 26th August cash/scrip Offer for real estate developer Peet Ltd (PPC AU).
Warburg Pincus saw an opportunity, and pitched a A$4.75/share NBIO, by way of a Scheme, on the 7th September (rejected); then A$5.05/share on the 21st September (also rejected).
A third NBIO, at A$5.25/share, was announced this morning. Ingenia is assessing terms. As with the two previous bids, Warburg’s Offer is conditional on terminating the Peet Scheme.

FnGuide – Significant Improvement in the New Value-Up Program

FnGuide Inc (064850 KS) announced a significant improvement in its new Corporate Value-Up program. The changes are meaningful and likely to have positive impact on share price.
FnGuide also plans on share buyback and cancellation of 15 billion won over the next three years (2026 – 2028).
FnGuide raised total shareholder returns to 40% or higher from 2026 to 2028. Previously, FnGuide did not explicitly mention the total shareholder returns, other than the 25%+ dividend payout ratio.

Get Nice Holdings (64 HK): Low-Risk Scheme Vote on 26 October

Mr Hung’s offer for Get Nice (64 HK) is HK$2.00 in cash plus a HK$2.00 special dividend. The gross spread is now 3.6%, and the vote is on 26 October.
Mr Hung holds 51.67%. Blocking the scheme requires 4.83% of outstanding shares (10% of disinterested holders), and no disinterested shareholder appears to be close to that.
The IFA says the offer is fair and reasonable. It justifies the 62.5% NAV discount by past trading discounts and the cost of selling assets. This is a done deal.

Ingenia (INA AU): Warburg’s Third Offer at A$5.25 Puts the Board on the Clock

Ingenia Communities (INA AU) received a revised Warburg Pincus proposal at A$5.25, a 4.0% premium to the prior A$5.05 offer and 22.7% to the undisturbed price. The Board is assessing it.
The offer implies only a modest control premium to sell-side price targets and peer multiples, but a third outright rejection would be hard to justify amid mounting shareholder pressure.
The offer lapses on Friday 2 October unless the Board grants due diligence. I expect engagement, and no “best and final” wording leaves room for a higher bid.

Singapura Finance Ltd Company Update (11 September 2026)

By FPA Financial

Singapura Finance (“SF”) is a Singapore-based financial services firm that offers loans for both consumers and corporates.
Other services include savings and fixed deposits.
The firm has seven branches located in populous areas to serve its client base that’s spread throughout Singapore.

India: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (29 Sep 2026)

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlights: In India, currently three pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

American Financial Group’s $125 Million Charleston Harbor Gain Could Lift Investment Income Further!

By Baptista Research

American Financial Group reported its second quarter 2026 results with a 32% increase in core net operating earnings per share to $2.82, driven by strong underwriting margins, premium growth, and higher net investment income.
The company recorded an annualized core operating return on equity of 19.2%.
Its $17.1 billion investment portfolio benefited from a 23% year-over-year increase in net investment income, boosted by improved alternative investment returns, which generated an annualized return of approximately 7.1% for the quarter compared to 1.2% in the prior year.

Chairmen Build Stakes as Seatrium Doubles Buyback Programme

Over five sessions, 60 director interests and substantial shareholdings were filed, including 23 acquisitions and two disposals by directors/CEOs.
Seatrium launched a new S$200 million Share Buyback Programme, funded from existing cash, doubling the previous programme.
Alan Goh of Katrina Group sold 12.6 million shares, reducing his interest to 76.7%, with BYD By 1826 acquiring 5%.

Get Nice (64 HK): 26th October Vote On Hung’s Low-Balled Offer.

On the 17th July, Hung Hon Man, Get Nice (64 HK)‘s chairman (& founder) offered HK$4/share, comprising a HK$2 consideration + HK$2 special dividend. Terms appear not to be final.
Terms are also low-balled. A 17.6% premium to undisturbed. And a 62.8% discount to NAV. However, minorities are indifferent when perusing past AGM voting.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a 26th October Scheme Meeting, and expected payment on the 16th November. The IFA (Veda Capital) concluded “fair and reasonable“.

Monday Delight: 28/09/2026

By Contrarian Cashflows

Instone Real Estate Group SE is a German residential-development company listed on Deutsche Börse’s Xetra market (ticker INS)
Acquiring land and developing multi-family and mixed-use residential projects across major German cities — Frankfurt, Hamburg, Leipzig and the wider Rhine-Main region
Then selling completed units to retail buyers and institutional investors alike.

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Sep 29

Daily Brief Consumer: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, SHEIN Global Holdings, Amos Food Group, Leong Guan Holdings, Surya Pertiwi, Nippon Flour Mills, Virtus Total Return Fund , C.T.I. Traffic Industries Co Ltd, First Trust High Income Long/S and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Shortlist of High-Conviction Ideas Across Japan, China & India – September 2026
Shein (625 HK): 1H26 Results Review = Not Great!
Pre-IPO Amos Food Group – The Strength and the Concerns
Chairmen Build Stakes as Seatrium Doubles Buyback Programme
Surya Pertiwi (SPTO IJ): High ROE, High Dividend Yield (11.5%) With Low PE
NIPPN Corporation (2001 JP) – Transitory Weakness with Recovery in H2
SHEIN H1/Q2 Results | Slow Top-Line Growth, More Margin Compression | Fulfilment Costs Up Sharply
Primer: Virtus Total Return Fund (ZTR US) – Sep 2026
Primer: C.T.I. Traffic Industries Co Ltd (2230 TT) – Sep 2026
Primer: First Trust High Income Long/S (FSD US) – Sep 2026

Shortlist of High-Conviction Ideas Across Japan, China & India – September 2026

By Sreemant Dudhoria

We compile our selection of companies across Japan, China & India based on bottom-up triggers in each company.
This is a mid-quarter update on companies as most companies will be announcing their September quarter results in next 45 days.
Based on these new results and guidance, we will update the list of top ideas accordingly.

Shein (625 HK): 1H26 Results Review = Not Great!

By Mo Aziz

1H26 results show a reported-vs-adjusted profit gap: headline net income +112% YoY vs. adjusted net income -55.6%, as fulfilment costs rise 6.3pp of revenue.
Our 2 Sept ACCUMULATE call got the risk framework right — recap math, cost escalation, governance concentration — but wrong on price: float thesis, not fundamentals, was the miss.
We maintain BULLISH but with a lower Fair Value of US$25bn/HK$45.4/share, based on FY26E Adj. EBIT US$950m x 11x EV/EBIT plus ~US$14.2bn net cash.

Pre-IPO Amos Food Group – The Strength and the Concerns

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Amos is positioned in the high growth “happiness + health” track, entering the creative/interactive candy and nutritional functional candy niche market that traditional candy giants have not yet focused on.
Creative/Healthy candies market has certain characteristics. The product differentiation barriers are difficult to maintain a high valuation in long term. Amos’ current high growth may not have a safety buffer.
In our view, a conservative valuation range could be 16-18x P/E. A neutral valuation range could be 19-22x P/E, and an optimistic valuation range could be 23-26x P/E.

Chairmen Build Stakes as Seatrium Doubles Buyback Programme

Over five sessions, 60 director interests and substantial shareholdings were filed, including 23 acquisitions and two disposals by directors/CEOs.
Seatrium launched a new S$200 million Share Buyback Programme, funded from existing cash, doubling the previous programme.
Alan Goh of Katrina Group sold 12.6 million shares, reducing his interest to 76.7%, with BYD By 1826 acquiring 5%.

Surya Pertiwi (SPTO IJ): High ROE, High Dividend Yield (11.5%) With Low PE

By Punit Khanna

This is the sole agent of TOTO, a leading sanitary ware maker from Japan, in Indonesia.
Business is a distribution business and earns steady Gross Profit Margins.
Business is the number 1 player in Indonesia, earning steady gross margins, high ROE, and high net margins

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NIPPN Corporation (2001 JP) – Transitory Weakness with Recovery in H2

By Astris Advisory Japan

Q1 profitability was impacted by higher depreciation from the newly operational Chita Mill and cost inflation, exacerbated by the ongoing Middle East tensions, that outpaced pricing, but we believe the weakness is transitory rather than a change in the Company’s operating performance.
Flour Milling continued to show underlying operating improvement and is tracking ahead of its full-year plan, while price revisions in the Food segment should drive a profitability recovery in H2. Importantly, SG&A growth decelerated versus FY3/26 as NIPPN executes on cost reduction measures, a sign of the efficiency discipline that drives medium- to long-term profitability improvements.
Furthermore, NIPPN’s capital structure optimization continues to progress steadily, with further cross-shareholding disposals planned through the remainder of FY3/27.

SHEIN H1/Q2 Results | Slow Top-Line Growth, More Margin Compression | Fulfilment Costs Up Sharply

By Daniel Hellberg

H1/Q2 results largely match tone of management guidance from the IPO process
Revenue barely grew, and margins shrank due to higher Fulfilment costs (tied to oil)
Shares are down over 27% from IPO; any break from fuel costs could boost bottom-line

Primer: Virtus Total Return Fund (ZTR US) – Sep 2026

Hybrid Asset Allocation Mandate: Virtus Total Return Fund Inc. (ZTR US, Last Price: $6.04) operates as a diversified closed-end management investment company designed to deliver high total return through a dual-engine structure combining global infrastructure equities (subadvised by Duff & Phelps) and multi-sector credit strategies (subadvised by Newfleet Asset Management).
Top-Tier Smartscore Profile vs. Cash Flow Moderation: The Fund achieves leading Smartkarma Smartscores in Value (5/5) and Growth (5/5), complemented by Dividend (4/5) and Momentum (4/5), driven by an attractive 9.93% market distribution yield and a robust 3-year EPS CAGR of 126.13%, balanced against multi-year distribution right-sizing (-14.50% 3-year dividend CAGR).
Operational Performance & Leverage Sensitivity: Financial results highlight a sharp rebound from 2023 troughs, with 2025 net income reaching $43.61M on $51.49M in total investment income (84.70% net margin). However, structural regulatory leverage (~31.7%) and declining operating cash flow ($5.17M in 2025 vs. $14.83M in 2023) underscore sensitivity to interest rate cycles and non-cash unrealized portfolio marks.

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Primer: C.T.I. Traffic Industries Co Ltd (2230 TT) – Sep 2026

Top-Line Expansion Overshadowed by Severe Margin Deterioration: CTI Traffic Industries recorded aggressive revenue growth to NT$2,025.20M in 2025 (3-year revenue CAGR of 58.94%), driven by product portfolio expansion and commercial trading activities. However, consolidated gross margin collapsed from 31.91% in 2023 to 6.05% in 2025 (turning negative at -2.26% in 1Q26), resulting in a net loss of NT$71.36M in 2025 and ongoing operational deficits through 1H26.
Secular Headwinds in ICE Components Prompting Green Energy Pivot: As a legacy manufacturer of internal combustion engine (ICE) piston rings, valvetrains, and gaskets, CTI faces terminal demand displacement from global automotive electrification. The company is actively pivoting toward lithium-ion vehicle starter batteries (‘Super-Starttery’), portable jump starters, and energy storage systems (ESS), though these emerging segments have yet to reach the scale necessary to offset legacy margin pressures.
Severe Free Cash Flow Burn Threatens Capital Returns: Operating cash flow deteriorated to -NT$350.78M and free cash flow plunged to -NT$420.47M in 2025 (3-year FCF CAGR of -120.22%) due to operating losses and heavy working capital requirements. While CTI distributed a dividend of NT$0.61 per share in 2026 (2.71% yield), ongoing cash burn presents significant uncertainty regarding future dividend sustainability and balance sheet headroom.

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Primer: First Trust High Income Long/S (FSD US) – Sep 2026

First Trust High Income Long/Short Fund (FSD US) is a closed-end management investment company designed to deliver high current income with secondary capital appreciation, utilizing an actively managed long/short portfolio of U.S. and international below-investment-grade corporate debt sub-advised by MacKay Shields LLC.
Financial performance highlights significant sensitivity to credit spread movements and interest rate cycles, with net income recovering to $19.11 million in FY2023 from a mark-to-market contraction of -$78.36 million in FY2022, supported by durable operating cash flows of $19.81 million.
FSD exhibits top-tier income credentials with a Smartkarma Dividend Smartscore of 5/5 and a stable distribution payout of $1.260 per share, though institutional investors must weigh the impact of structural leverage financing costs, sub-investment grade credit risk, and closed-end discount dynamics.

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Sep 29

Most Read: Digital Garage, SK Hynix, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Goodbaby International, Genesis Minerals, Northern Star Resources, Ingenia Communities, Kakaku.com Inc, Korea Aerospace Industries and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Event] Digital Garage (4819) Is The Wrong Price
Potential Inclusion of SK Hynix ADR in NASDAQ 100 Index in December 2026
Sharing What I Heard Directly from a KRX Index Official Today on Sector Change for KOSPI 200 Rebal
Goodbaby (1086 HK): Founder’s Fair Offer
[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Dec26: Vault-Genesis Deal Has Massive Passive Flows
Northern Star (NST AU) Rejects Gold Fields (GFI SJ)’s Terms
Ingenia Communities (INA AU) Mulls Warburg’s Third Proposal
Merger Arb Mondays (28 Sep) – Kakaku, Sankei RE, Kadoya, Leopalace, Goodbaby, Z Fin, Yinson, Peet
Hanwha Aerospace and Other Hanwha Affiliates Now Own 15.9% of KAI – Next Move?
Northern Star (NST AU): Gold Fields Rejection Justified, Sweetened Bid Likely

[Japan Event] Digital Garage (4819) Is The Wrong Price

Digital Garage (4819 JP) got very exciting when an activist got involved. The less so when that activist sold its shares to Resona Holdings (8308 JP) at a fat premium.
DG lost its driver. Perhaps Resona is a longer-term catalyst but it’s unclear. Given they are down 60% so far, they may be looking for new blood. Hayashi-san is 66.
Now Digital Garage’s big equity affiliate stake asset will turn into cash. This is real value. It has been but this deal will double (or more than double) BVPS.

Potential Inclusion of SK Hynix ADR in NASDAQ 100 Index in December 2026

In this insight, I discuss the impact of the potential inclusion of SK Hynix (SKHY US) ADR in the NASDAQ 100 rebalance in December 2026.
There are 17 other companies in the NASDAQ 100 Index which have lower market cap than SK Hynix’s ADR capitalization.
I believe there is a high probability (80-90%+) of SK Hynix (SKHY US) ADR inclusion in the NASDAQ 100 Index in December 2026.

Sharing What I Heard Directly from a KRX Index Official Today on Sector Change for KOSPI 200 Rebal

By Sanghyun Park

KRX says the new KRICS framework should stay fairly close to GICS, so using GICS as the base case is the best way to forecast sector mapping at this point.
KRX simulations show the KRICS switch should not materially change the size of December KOSPI 200 adds and deletes, with existing market cap buffer rules absorbing most sector driven changes.
Nonetheless, sector uncertainty makes cutoff calls harder, likely delaying KOSPI 200 pre positioning and flow signals until late October, when the new mapping is released.

Goodbaby (1086 HK): Founder’s Fair Offer

Goodbaby International (1086 HK), a maker of juvenile products (strollers/pushchairs, child car seats), has announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from founder/chairman Song Zhenghuan.
Song is Offering HK$1.50/share, a 38.9% premium to last close. And a 53.06% premium to the 10-day VWAP (possible news leakage?).
The Offer price is final. Dividends will be netted. This transaction should be wrapped up in around four months, ahead of the 24th March 2027 long-stop.

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Dec26: Vault-Genesis Deal Has Massive Passive Flows

The MV Junior Gold Miners index tracks the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. Lots of AUM on the ETF means big impact sometimes.
There will be no index changes for the December 2026 rebal event. However, we currently expect a one-way flow of US$43mm for December 2026 due to capping/re-capping.
The Vault-Genesis deal is expected to complete before the December 2026 rebal. Vault faces over two months of ADV to sell and Genesis over a month to buy, both US$1bn+.

Northern Star (NST AU) Rejects Gold Fields (GFI SJ)’s Terms

Northern Star Resources (NST AU) announced two major downgrades this year, hampered by old hardware, leading to a ~19% single-day share price fall on the second cut.
NST made some concessions, mollifying activist Elliott (and the market). For now. I discussed this situation in Stay The Course As Northern Star (NST AU) Extends Olive Branch To Elliott.
NST announced this morning that three days prior my note it received, and (has now) summarily rejected a cash/scrip Offer from Gold Fields (GFI SJ), or a A$27/share implied price.

Ingenia Communities (INA AU) Mulls Warburg’s Third Proposal

Ingenia Communities (INA AU)‘s share price declined ~13% as shareholders didn’t take kindly to its 26th August cash/scrip Offer for real estate developer Peet Ltd (PPC AU).
Warburg Pincus saw an opportunity, and pitched a A$4.75/share NBIO, by way of a Scheme, on the 7th September (rejected); then A$5.05/share on the 21st September (also rejected).
A third NBIO, at A$5.25/share, was announced this morning. Ingenia is assessing terms. As with the two previous bids, Warburg’s Offer is conditional on terminating the Peet Scheme.

Merger Arb Mondays (28 Sep) – Kakaku, Sankei RE, Kadoya, Leopalace, Goodbaby, Z Fin, Yinson, Peet

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow for the merger arb situations covered across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Skyworth (751 HK), OFX Group (OFX AU), Goodbaby International (1086 HK), Z Fin (1168 HK), Peet Ltd (PPC AU), Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU), Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY AU).
Lowest spreads: Kadoya Sesame Mills (2612 JP), Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP), Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), Accent Group (AX1 AU), Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP), Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU).

Hanwha Aerospace and Other Hanwha Affiliates Now Own 15.9% of KAI – Next Move?

In the past several months, Hanwha Group companies purchased additional shares in Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) so their combined stake is now 15.89%.
Hanwha Aerospace owns 9.9% stake in KAI, followed by Hanwha Systems (4.98%), and Hanwha Aerospace USA (1.01%).
I provide four main scenarios of the potential next moves by the Hanwha Group companies regarding Korea Aerospace Industries.

Northern Star (NST AU): Gold Fields Rejection Justified, Sweetened Bid Likely

Northern Star Resources (NST AU) rejected Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)‘s proposal (0.3125 shares plus A$7.25 cash, implied A$27.00, 22.1% premium). It cited undervaluation, scrip risk, opportunistic timing and onerous conditions.
Elliott, the key activist, needs a higher offer. Its return would be modest; NST’s turnaround has barely started; Gold Fields keeps most synergies; and hard exclusivity shuts out rival bidders.
Gold Fields will likely return at around A$28–30, with more cash and no hard exclusivity. Synergies and past deals support this, but the deal’s size acts as a constraint.

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Sep 29

Daily Brief Australia: Genesis Minerals, Ingenia Communities, Northern Star Resources, Rio Tinto Ltd, Macquarie Group, AUB Group Limited and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Dec26: Vault-Genesis Deal Has Massive Passive Flows
Ingenia Communities (INA AU) Mulls Warburg’s Third Proposal
[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec26 Rebal: No Changes Likely; Vault-Genesis Deal Flows
Northern Star (NST AU): Gold Fields Rejection Justified, Sweetened Bid Likely
Ingenia (INA AU): Warburg’s Third Offer at A$5.25 Puts the Board on the Clock
Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Evolving Beyond Iron Ore as Copper Becomes the Second Earnings Engine
Treasure Chest: Macquarie Group
Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (29 Sep 2026)

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Dec26: Vault-Genesis Deal Has Massive Passive Flows

The MV Junior Gold Miners index tracks the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. Lots of AUM on the ETF means big impact sometimes.
There will be no index changes for the December 2026 rebal event. However, we currently expect a one-way flow of US$43mm for December 2026 due to capping/re-capping.
The Vault-Genesis deal is expected to complete before the December 2026 rebal. Vault faces over two months of ADV to sell and Genesis over a month to buy, both US$1bn+.

Ingenia Communities (INA AU) Mulls Warburg’s Third Proposal

Ingenia Communities (INA AU)‘s share price declined ~13% as shareholders didn’t take kindly to its 26th August cash/scrip Offer for real estate developer Peet Ltd (PPC AU).
Warburg Pincus saw an opportunity, and pitched a A$4.75/share NBIO, by way of a Scheme, on the 7th September (rejected); then A$5.05/share on the 21st September (also rejected).
A third NBIO, at A$5.25/share, was announced this morning. Ingenia is assessing terms. As with the two previous bids, Warburg’s Offer is conditional on terminating the Peet Scheme.

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec26 Rebal: No Changes Likely; Vault-Genesis Deal Flows

The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large- and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. It underlies the biggest listed sector ETF (GDX).
We currently don’t see any index changes for the December 2026 rebal. The potential ADDs would need to significantly outperform to trigger an index change.
The Vault-Genesis deal is likely to complete before the December 2026 rebal and is expected to trigger passive flows in MV Global Gold and MV Junior Gold Miners indices.

Northern Star (NST AU): Gold Fields Rejection Justified, Sweetened Bid Likely

Northern Star Resources (NST AU) rejected Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)‘s proposal (0.3125 shares plus A$7.25 cash, implied A$27.00, 22.1% premium). It cited undervaluation, scrip risk, opportunistic timing and onerous conditions.
Elliott, the key activist, needs a higher offer. Its return would be modest; NST’s turnaround has barely started; Gold Fields keeps most synergies; and hard exclusivity shuts out rival bidders.
Gold Fields will likely return at around A$28–30, with more cash and no hard exclusivity. Synergies and past deals support this, but the deal’s size acts as a constraint.

Ingenia (INA AU): Warburg’s Third Offer at A$5.25 Puts the Board on the Clock

Ingenia Communities (INA AU) received a revised Warburg Pincus proposal at A$5.25, a 4.0% premium to the prior A$5.05 offer and 22.7% to the undisturbed price. The Board is assessing it.
The offer implies only a modest control premium to sell-side price targets and peer multiples, but a third outright rejection would be hard to justify amid mounting shareholder pressure.
The offer lapses on Friday 2 October unless the Board grants due diligence. I expect engagement, and no “best and final” wording leaves room for a higher bid.

Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Evolving Beyond Iron Ore as Copper Becomes the Second Earnings Engine

By Sameer Taneja

Copper delivered 36% of divisional EBITDA in H1 FY26 (US$5.7bn, 66% margin), up from 6.5% in H2 FY23, as Oyu Tolgoi underground ramps up.
Iron ore’s share has halved to 43%, with EBITDA/t down 65% from its peak; capex is rotating to Simandou, the Pilbara replacement, lithium, and aluminum, while copper enters harvest.
Valuation at 13.7x FY26e P/E, 7.3x EV/EBITDA and 5.1% yield. We analyze the Rio Tinto (RIO US) pivot

Treasure Chest: Macquarie Group

By FNArena

FNArena’s Treasure Chest reports on money making ideas from stockbrokers and other experts.
Today’s idea is Macquarie Group.

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (29 Sep 2026)

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlights: In Australia, currently four pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

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Sep 29

Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Korea Aerospace Industries, FnGuide Inc, Samsung SDI, Boditech Med, SK Hynix and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Sharing What I Heard Directly from a KRX Index Official Today on Sector Change for KOSPI 200 Rebal
Hanwha Aerospace and Other Hanwha Affiliates Now Own 15.9% of KAI – Next Move?
FnGuide – Significant Improvement in the New Value-Up Program
Samsung SDI (006400): Re-Rate Soon
Primer: Boditech Med (206640 KS) – Sep 2026
SK Hynix (000660 KS) -5% Drop: Tactical Positioning Beyond the Noise

Sharing What I Heard Directly from a KRX Index Official Today on Sector Change for KOSPI 200 Rebal

By Sanghyun Park

KRX says the new KRICS framework should stay fairly close to GICS, so using GICS as the base case is the best way to forecast sector mapping at this point.
KRX simulations show the KRICS switch should not materially change the size of December KOSPI 200 adds and deletes, with existing market cap buffer rules absorbing most sector driven changes.
Nonetheless, sector uncertainty makes cutoff calls harder, likely delaying KOSPI 200 pre positioning and flow signals until late October, when the new mapping is released.

Hanwha Aerospace and Other Hanwha Affiliates Now Own 15.9% of KAI – Next Move?

In the past several months, Hanwha Group companies purchased additional shares in Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) so their combined stake is now 15.89%.
Hanwha Aerospace owns 9.9% stake in KAI, followed by Hanwha Systems (4.98%), and Hanwha Aerospace USA (1.01%).
I provide four main scenarios of the potential next moves by the Hanwha Group companies regarding Korea Aerospace Industries.

FnGuide – Significant Improvement in the New Value-Up Program

FnGuide Inc (064850 KS) announced a significant improvement in its new Corporate Value-Up program. The changes are meaningful and likely to have positive impact on share price.
FnGuide also plans on share buyback and cancellation of 15 billion won over the next three years (2026 – 2028).
FnGuide raised total shareholder returns to 40% or higher from 2026 to 2028. Previously, FnGuide did not explicitly mention the total shareholder returns, other than the 25%+ dividend payout ratio.

Samsung SDI (006400): Re-Rate Soon

By Henry Soediarko

Samsung SDI (006400 KS) returned to profitability earlier than expected, thanks to the pivot to AI data center back up system and key EV partnerships.
Contrary to popular belief, the AMPC (credit for being green in the US), is still active and contributed to SDI’s bottom meaningfully.
As the valuation is relatively depressed right now, we should expect some sort of the Value Up program to kick in and the share price should re-rate.

Primer: Boditech Med (206640 KS) – Sep 2026

Boditech Med Inc. (206640 KS) is a leading South Korea-based in vitro diagnostics (IVD) company specializing in Point-of-Care Testing (POCT) analyzers (ichroma™ and AFIAS platforms) and consumable diagnostic reagent cartridges across more than 120 global markets.
Following post-pandemic normalization, the company has delivered strong organic revenue expansion, reaching KRW 162.1bn in 2025 (+17.3% YoY) with sustained gross profit margins above 56% and EBITDA margins in the 23-26% range, powered by non-COVID test menus across cardiovascular, latent tuberculosis (IGRA-TB), therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM), and diabetes.
Trading at attractive valuation multiples relative to global IVD peers (~7.5-8.5x trailing P/E and ~1.1x P/B), Boditech Med combines robust balance sheet resilience (net cash position), consistent dividend distributions (1.6% yield), and multiple regulatory commercial catalysts in North America and Europe.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS) -5% Drop: Tactical Positioning Beyond the Noise

By Nico Rosti

Panic set in on Monday as SK Hynix (000660 KS) fell -5.05%. The stock has been decelerating in the last few weeks, as discussed here, so this is not surprising.
Bypassing narrative commentary on the sell-off, we focus strictly on tactical execution and portfolio positioning.
Our model’s support price zones have been updated since our latest SK Hynix insight so here is a fresh view: how much can SK Hynix fall and where to buy?

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Sep 29

Daily Brief Singapore: Lazada Group, Singapura Finance, Geo Energy Resources, Klook, Leong Guan Holdings, Rubber Future SGX TSR20, ISDN, Soon Hock Enterprise and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Lazada: Prioritising Margin Over Scale in a Three-Player Market (Initiation)
Singapura Finance Ltd Company Update (11 September 2026)
Geo Energy: Direct Hormuz Play, Limited by Domestic Reforms
Klook: Building the Digital Backbone of Asia’s Experience Economy (Initiation)
Chairmen Build Stakes as Seatrium Doubles Buyback Programme
Part II: El Niño Redraws the Rubber Supply Map as Countries Feel the Pinch
Net Institutional Inflow Reversals into Late September
Primer: Soon Hock Enterprise (SHOCK SP) – Sep 2026

Lazada: Prioritising Margin Over Scale in a Three-Player Market (Initiation)

By Beier Luo

Executive Summary

Strategic Pivot to Profitability: Lazada operates a mature third-party e-commerce marketplace across six Southeast Asian countries, connecting approximately 160.0m active monthly users with local and international brands, and now ranks third in the region by GMV. Having shifted its operational focus from aggressive market share acquisition towards sustainable margins, the platform recorded its first month of positive EBITDA in July 2024, and has since executed a 5.0% regional workforce reduction while integrating artificial intelligence to drive conversion efficiency, although revenue is estimated to have declined by around 11% in FY2026.
Proprietary Infrastructure and Strategic Backing: The core value driver is the company’s structural moat, underpinned by an end-to-end proprietary logistics network spanning 17 cities and the advanced Project Voyager technology stack. This operational advantage is secured by the deep financial and strategic backing of its parent company, Alibaba Group, which provides a highly secure runway in a regional platform market that reached US$157.6b in 2025.
Intense Competition and Share Loss: The platform faces fierce rivalry from Shopee, the regional market leader, and fast-growing social-commerce challengers such as TikTok Shop, which benefit from lower customer acquisition costs and higher organic engagement and have already pushed Lazada into third place by GMV. Further share erosion could force a return to margin-compressing promotional spending, particularly if rivals continue to weaponise pricing, seller subsidies and integrated video commerce capabilities.

Singapura Finance Ltd Company Update (11 September 2026)

By FPA Financial

Singapura Finance (“SF”) is a Singapore-based financial services firm that offers loans for both consumers and corporates.
Other services include savings and fixed deposits.
The firm has seven branches located in populous areas to serve its client base that’s spread throughout Singapore.

Geo Energy: Direct Hormuz Play, Limited by Domestic Reforms

By RHT Capital

Structural cost reset, not a coal-price bet.
The MBJ integrated haul road + barging chain (capex ~US$150 mil) removes third-party trucking on TRA coal and takes ~US$7–8/t out of the annual cost base.
That is a self-help margin gain that survives a flat coal price.

Klook: Building the Digital Backbone of Asia’s Experience Economy (Initiation)

By Ben Lim

Pan-Regional Marketplace Scale: Klook operates as a scaled digital aggregator for the Asia-Pacific experience economy, connecting retail travellers with local operators across 4,200 global destinations. The mobile-first platform has transitioned from a regional booking tool into a comprehensive travel infrastructure provider, culminating in a formal United States IPO filing in late 2025.
Exceptional Institutional Capitalisation: The company is underpinned by an asset-light business model and over US$1.0b in cumulative funding from top-tier sponsors including SoftBank Group and Bessemer Venture Partners. This substantial financial backing provides the necessary capital to scale its proprietary digital ecosystem, drive higher-margin ancillary services, and execute strategic cross-border partnerships ahead of a prospective public listing.
Structural Working Capital Deficit: Klook’s Singapore operating subsidiary reported current liabilities exceeding current assets by S$37.1m at the end of FY24 and relies on a letter of financial support from its parent. Foreign exchange exposure on cross-border settlements adds to this pressure, although the wider group held over US$200m in cash, deposits and treasury products at 30 September 2025.

Chairmen Build Stakes as Seatrium Doubles Buyback Programme

Over five sessions, 60 director interests and substantial shareholdings were filed, including 23 acquisitions and two disposals by directors/CEOs.
Seatrium launched a new S$200 million Share Buyback Programme, funded from existing cash, doubling the previous programme.
Alan Goh of Katrina Group sold 12.6 million shares, reducing his interest to 76.7%, with BYD By 1826 acquiring 5%.

Part II: El Niño Redraws the Rubber Supply Map as Countries Feel the Pinch

By Vinod Nedumudy

Highlights

Malaysia sees over 90% probability of very strong El Niño by October–December
Vietnam sees 98% probability of very strong El Niño during October–December
China’s rubber regions show sharply contrasting drought and rainfall risks

Net Institutional Inflow Reversals into Late September

Institutional investors recorded a net outflow of S$336 million across Singapore-listed stocks from 31 August to 25 September.
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding saw the largest reversal with S$73.78 million net buying from 14–25 September after prior net selling.
UI Boustead REIT and CapitaLand Ascott Trust reversed outflows with recent net buying of S$17.23 million and S$6.70 million, respectively.

Primer: Soon Hock Enterprise (SHOCK SP) – Sep 2026