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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief ESG: Improvements Have Expired in Criteria Related to the 2019 Corporate Governance Code Revision and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Improvements Have Expired in Criteria Related to the 2019 Corporate Governance Code Revision


Improvements Have Expired in Criteria Related to the 2019 Corporate Governance Code Revision

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While companies are eager to improve % of female board members, for which they are required to meet new targets, they are less enthusiastic about raising % of independent directors.
  • The improvement in % of independent directors has been decreasing year by year. As the importance of independent directors increases, it’s necessary to demand increase in this ratio through engagement.
  • For the other evaluation criteria, the median value remained unchanged from the previous year. Meanwhile, some traditional companies have not been able to eliminate the position of ex-CEO advisors.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: The KOSPI Is Not Out of the Woods: WEEKLY Overbought Model Suggests an Impending Pullback and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • The KOSPI Is Not Out of the Woods: WEEKLY Overbought Model Suggests an Impending Pullback


The KOSPI Is Not Out of the Woods: WEEKLY Overbought Model Suggests an Impending Pullback

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 INDEX has interrupted its rally in July 2024 and it may appear ready to restart rallying, however in the very short term we have 2 possible scenarios.
  • SCENARIO 1: the index may rally a bit higher, towards 356, but it would be quite overbought, like >85% probability of reversal.
  • SCENARIO 2: the index could pullback at the beginning of the next week (or before this week’s end),  and then, after a modest pullback, start a longer-term uptrend.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Edge Higher and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Edge Higher
  • Japan Morning Connection: Can JP Semi-Cap Names Continue to Buck the US Tech Weakness?
  • China Strategy: What Are Some Other High Dividend Yield Options?
  • #83 India Insight: JSW to Acquire MG India, Maruti Unveils EV Vision, Temasek to Invest in Haldiram
  • Singapore Market Roundup (08-Jan-2025): DBS cautious on SG retail, bullish on premium groceries.
  • Biopharma Week in Review – January 6, 2025
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly SCS 3QFY25 Earnings; Winner Takes Most in US Retail
  • Mat-Chem Notes – Looking Ahead by Looking Back at 2024


Ohayo Japan | Stocks Edge Higher

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks wavered as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes, which hinted at a slower pace of policy easing
  • Fast Retailing, parent company of Uniqlo, has announced salary hikes to attract and retain top talent amidst intensifying competition
  • Sumitomo Rubber Industries will acquire the Dunlop tire brand rights for Europe, North America and Oceania from Goodyear Tire & Rubber for $526 million

Japan Morning Connection: Can JP Semi-Cap Names Continue to Buck the US Tech Weakness?

By Andrew Jackson

  • Yesterday saw a notable rotation out of recent momentum winners in Japan towards oversold quality such as SPE.
  • EU defence names generally stronger on concerns over Trumps Greenland/Denmark comments may be mild positive for JP heavies.
  • Power semi weakness in the US at least partially over news Renesas is cutting workforce on weak auto chip sales.

China Strategy: What Are Some Other High Dividend Yield Options?

By Osbert Tang, CFA


#83 India Insight: JSW to Acquire MG India, Maruti Unveils EV Vision, Temasek to Invest in Haldiram

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • JSW Group is set to acquire Everstone Capital’s 8% stake in MG India, raising its ownership to 43%. While strengthening its position, JSW will still fall short of majority control.
  • Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)  unveils its ‘e For Me’ vision for electric mobility, focusing on the e VITARA electric SUV and an ecosystem to support EV adoption. 
  • Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd (TMSK SP)  is set to acquire a minority stake in Haldiram Snacks for a valuation of $10-$11 billion. 

Singapore Market Roundup (08-Jan-2025): DBS cautious on SG retail, bullish on premium groceries.

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • Despite softness in Singapore retail, DBS remains optimistic about premium groceries, focusing on that market.
  • UOB Kay Hian’s top Malaysian stock picks include JS-SEZ, benefiting from property, construction, and energy sectors.
  • DBS raises ratings for PropNex & APAC Realty to ‘buy’, citing a strong new launch pipeline in 2025, and sold SingPost shares.

Biopharma Week in Review – January 6, 2025

By Water Tower Research

  • Welcome to a new year and we are excited for the innovation and therapeutic breakthroughs that biopharma will reveal this year, while navigating through any changes in the regulatory and M&A environment.
  • For our first Biopharma Review report in 2025, we cover the news that we missed during the holiday break.
  • On the obesity front, NVO’s CagriSema fell short of expectations, while the FDA reaffirmed LLY’s GLP-1 shortage resolution, bearing bad news for HIMS and LFMD. 

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly SCS 3QFY25 Earnings; Winner Takes Most in US Retail

By Water Tower Research

  • It was a relatively quiet holiday-shortened trading week.
  • The Water Tower Research Commercial/Contract Furniture Index was down (-2.5%) and the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index was down (-0.3%), while the Home Goods Retailers Index was up 2.0% in a week where the large-cap indexes modestly declined (-0.5%) and the R2K was up 0.9%.
  • SCS posted solid 3QFY25 results (on December 18), noting that while FY25 demand has been a bit weaker than expected at the beginning of the year, recent activity suggests demand (finally) may be inflecting, especially in the Americas segment (~3/4 of revenue).

Mat-Chem Notes – Looking Ahead by Looking Back at 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • WTR-CMI in 2024. Last year was difficult for specialty chemicals and materials stocks, with our WTR-CMI Index posting a rather modest 5% gain for the year, affected by >40% Y/Y declines in lithium stocks.
  • The index’s performance was well off the pace of the Russell 2000 and S&P 500, which posted returns of 10.8% and 24%, respectively, driven by the extraordinary gains of the “magnificent seven” tech and media stocks.
  • On a positive note, RYAM’s stock price nearly doubled during the year, driven by an improving pricing environment, better sales mix, and cost containment efforts, as well as the ramp-up of the company’s Biomaterials business. 

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Daily Brief ECM: Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong
  • Brigade Hotel Ventures Ltd Pre-IPO – Strong Rebound from Covid but with High Concentration
  • Pre IPO X.J. Electrics (Hu Bei) – ODM/OEM Model Is Hard to Deliver High Margins and Growth Prospects
  • Beijing Geekplus Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong

By Sumeet Singh

  • In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, starting with Hong Kong.
  • This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
  • The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

Brigade Hotel Ventures Ltd Pre-IPO – Strong Rebound from Covid but with High Concentration

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Brigade Hotel Ventures Ltd (BHV IN) is an owner and developer of hotels in India, focusing primarily on South India, plans to raise about US$107m through its upcoming India IPO.
  • It has a current portfolio of  9 operating hotels, of which, 4, 3 and 2 are operated under Accor, InterContinental, Marriott brands.
  • BHVL intends to use the IPO proceeds primarily to repay debt of INR 4.8bn and to purchase land from the promoter for further expansion.

Pre IPO X.J. Electrics (Hu Bei) – ODM/OEM Model Is Hard to Deliver High Margins and Growth Prospects

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • X.J. ELECTRICS not only relies on export revenue, but also on ODM/OEM models, with a relatively low proportion of independent brands. Such business model would not bring high profit margin.
  • X.J. ELECTRICS’ equity is concentrated in PAN YUN/GUANGSHE PAN, but they have plans to reduce holdings.This makes us feel that actual controllers are more inclined to cash out through IPO.
  • Valuation of X.J. ELECTRICS should be lower than Carote, as Carote has established branded business and its revenue proportion in different regions is also “healthier” than that of X.J. ELECTRICS.

Beijing Geekplus Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

  • Geek+ (1678559D CH) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.  The deal will be run by CICC, Morgan Stanley, CMBI and Deutsche Bank.
  • It is a leader in the global AMR market and offers a series of AMR solutions to empower warehouse fulfillment and industrial material transport.
  • It was the world’s largest warehouse fulfillment AMR solution provider in terms of revenue in 2023.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • YPF to Price USD 9NC4 Unsecured Notes (IPT: 8.75%, Guidance: 8.50%)


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunac China, Fosun International, China Hongqiao
  • In the US, the ISM services index expanded to 54.1 (53.5 e / 52.1 p). This was driven by an increase in the prices paid and new orders components, while the employment component was stable.
  • Separately, the November JOLTS job openings rose to 8.10 mn (7.74 mn e / 7.84 mn p). The November trade deficit expanded to USD 78.2 bn (USD 78.3 bn e / USD 73.6 bn revised p).

YPF to Price USD 9NC4 Unsecured Notes (IPT: 8.75%, Guidance: 8.50%)

By Leandro Gubler

  • We recommend to “BUY” on the new YPFAR 2034 at 8.5%
  • We believe these bonds offer an appealing yield within YPF’s debt capital structure and are currently trading wide relative to the broader LatAm BB and EM BB curves
  • Pricing is expected today, with initial price talk around 8.75%, and now guided at 8.5%.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)’s Unconditional MGO and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)’s Unconditional MGO
  • GAPack (468 HK): Additional Thoughts On Mengniu Selling
  • EQD | Tencent (700 HK) Option Strategy for Navigating a Volatile Market
  • The Unexpected Passive Trade from the LG CNS IPO: Short LG Corp
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2025)
  • Southeast Asia: The Passive Axe Hangs as Positioning Increases
  • Smart Share Global (EM US): Trustar Capital-Sponsored MBO’s US$1.25 Per ADS Non-Binding Offer
  • Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Up to 5 Changes in March
  • Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Home Straight After CFIUS Nod
  • Nippon Steel/US Steel: Deal Blocked but Offering Robust Standalone Value


PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)’s Unconditional MGO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 14th November, Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) (PA Gooddoctor announced a change in use of proceeds, including the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.
  • A scrip option was concurrently afforded. The results of that scrip election have now been announced, the completion of which, triggers an unconditional MGO from Ping An Insurance  (601318 CH).
  • The MGO price is HK$6.12/share, a price made public last month. For those investors trading the event and who bought PA Gooddoctor cum dividend, it has worked out well.

GAPack (468 HK): Additional Thoughts On Mengniu Selling

By David Blennerhassett

  • Following on from the surprise development that China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) had reduced its stake below 5%, I’ve had a few readers asking about hypothetical situations regarding its stake.
  • IF Mengniu is a seller, can’t Mengniu simply sell its entire stake to Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) (XJF)? Can Mengniu sell to XJF above the Offer Price?
  • Both questions are addressed in the Takeovers Code. But only one is permitted.

EQD | Tencent (700 HK) Option Strategy for Navigating a Volatile Market

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Tencent (700 HK) shares fell 7.3% on 7 January, after being designated a Chinese Military Company by the U.S. Department of Defense, prompting volatility to spike.
  • Given the potential for further downside, or a relief rally, significant price movements and high volatility are to be expected.
  • A long straddle is detailed to capitalize on the anticipated volatility in Tencent (700 HK) .

The Unexpected Passive Trade from the LG CNS IPO: Short LG Corp

By Sanghyun Park

  • I’m focusing on the price action of LG Corp when LG CNS enters the KOSPI 200 IT sector, causing LG Corp to be removed from the index.
  • With LG Corp’s 6% weight, its removal could trigger ETF rebalancing (TIGER), leading to an outflow exceeding twice the usual daily trading volume.
  • If LG CNS misses Fast Entry, it’ll enter in December, not June. We’ll time our short position on LG Corp to align with passive outflows during that window.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2025)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) continues to be our top pre-event pick for TOPIX Inclusion.
  • Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) is another potential TOPIX Inclusion candidate but it is quite far away from being satisfy the main Section Transfer requirements.

Southeast Asia: The Passive Axe Hangs as Positioning Increases

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 8 stocks listed in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines that could be deleted from passive portfolios in February.
  • There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$50m flow and between 3.5-64x ADV. Positioning is not very high in a lot of the stocks.
  • Stocks could avoid deletion if they move higher in the next week or two. But increased positioning could keep a lid on that.

Smart Share Global (EM US): Trustar Capital-Sponsored MBO’s US$1.25 Per ADS Non-Binding Offer

By Arun George

  • On 6 January, Smart Share Global (EM US) disclosed a non-binding proposal from a Trustar Capital-sponsored MBO at US$1.25 per ADS, a 74.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$0.72.
  • The offer is unattractive to the IPO price (US$8.50), average sell-side price targets (US$1.87) and historical trading ranges. 
  • Despite the light offer, the shareholder vote is done (two-thirds voting threshold) as the buyer consortium represents 64.0% of the voting power. A binding proposal will be forthcoming.  

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Up to 5 Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • The review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the HSIII was 31 December. The changes will be announced on 21 February and become effective after the close 7 March.
  • There could be 5 changes to the index with some inclusions driven by potential addition to the Hang Seng Composite Index. That could lead to buying via Southbound Stock Connect.
  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is a potential inclusion to the HSCI and the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in March.

Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Home Straight After CFIUS Nod

By David Blennerhassett

  • Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)‘s spread to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)‘s terms steadily increased subsequent to the US elections, ostensibly over Trump (Musk?) bluster, blowing out to 21% before Xmas.
  • Overnight, the transaction received the go ahead from CFIUS. Shares popped ~8.2% on the news. The transaction remains subject to investment screening approvals in Australia, Canada and Italy. 
  • Unlike Greenland and the Panama Canal, the takeover of Arcadium should complete “before mid-2025”; possibly this quarter.

Nippon Steel/US Steel: Deal Blocked but Offering Robust Standalone Value

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion acquisition bid for U.S. Steel, announced in December 2023, faced regulatory resistance and was blocked by the Biden administration over national security concerns.
  • U.S. Steel’s Big River Steel 2 expansion will double capacity to 6.3 million tons by 2026, contributing over 50% of EBITDA and supporting enhanced free cash flow generation.
  • Despite the failed merger, U.S. Steel’s intrinsic value, supported by a $39.75 fair value estimate, easing capex, and reshoring tailwinds, offers a ~19% upside from the $33.30 closing price.

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Daily Brief Crypto: The Impact of Token Unlock Events on Cryptocurrency Prices: An Empirical Analysis and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • The Impact of Token Unlock Events on Cryptocurrency Prices: An Empirical Analysis
  • LayerZero Part 3: $ZRO Token


The Impact of Token Unlock Events on Cryptocurrency Prices: An Empirical Analysis

By Animoca Brands Research

  • Large unlocks (over 1% of circulating supply) significantly impact prices, mainly concentrated in the week before and after the unlock. A 1% token unlock triggers, on average, a 0.3% price drop over the week preceding the unlock and another 0.3% drop over the week following the unlock.
  • The strongest price effects occur two days before the unlock and on the third and fourth days after the unlock. Interestingly, the actual unlock day and the day after show little price impact.
  • The similar magnitude of price drops before and after the unlock suggests that market anticipation is just as influential as the actual selling pressure.

LayerZero Part 3: $ZRO Token

By Animoca Brands Research

  • The $ZRO token was introduced in June 2024, with planned utilities that include protocol governance, transaction fee payment, and staking for DVN security. All three utilities have strong implications for $ZRO’s value.
  • We foresee that the next three years will be marked by a rapid increase in $ZRO’s circulating supply, alongside growing utilization within the protocol and its adoption as a common currency for cross-chain trades.
  • We propose a valuation framework for $ZRO that leverages the Market Cap to Transaction Volume (MC-Tx) ratio, combined with projected transaction volume scenarios. This framework aims to provide readers with a perspective on the relationship between protocol growth and token value.

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Daily Brief Macro: 5 Major Potential Policy Changes in the Korean Stock Market Pushed by the FSC in 2025 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • 5 Major Potential Policy Changes in the Korean Stock Market Pushed by the FSC in 2025
  • The Drill: It’s an Omnishambles in the Tariff Talks
  • Suppliers Suffer As Top Brands Make Fewer Tires
  • Malaysia Economics: Domestic Demand to Hold the Line in 2025
  • CX Daily: Chinese Merchants Plow Cash Into Overseas Warehouses Amid Global E-Commerce Boom
  • Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-Dec (Forecast)


5 Major Potential Policy Changes in the Korean Stock Market Pushed by the FSC in 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • On 8 January, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) announced 5 major potential policy changes in the Korean stocks market which could get implemented in 2025.
  • The mandatory lock-up periods for the institutional investors could result in the institutional investors that are active in Korean IPOs to reassess their trading strategies on newly offered issues. 
  • Choi Sang-Mok was the most important government official spearheading the numerous financial reforms in Korea. Now that he is the acting President, he is likely to accelerate these financial reforms. 

The Drill: It’s an Omnishambles in the Tariff Talks

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Yesterday was a crazy day in FX and commodities as seen in chart 1.a. Within the span of 6 hours we had markets trading WaPo the rumour, then reacting to the pushback on the rumour from Trump and then markets calling Trump’s push back a bluff.
  • We conclude a couple of things from this.
  • Firstly, what we have been saying the last month ever since Trump’s first comments on Canadian tariffs, namely that this is a negotiation tactic to get what he really wants.

Suppliers Suffer As Top Brands Make Fewer Tires

By Farah Miller

  • Tire production volumes are declining
  • Major tire manufacturers are closing/withdrawing from the Chinese truck tire market
  • Emerging competitors are expanding capacity, challenging established suppliers 

Malaysia Economics: Domestic Demand to Hold the Line in 2025

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • After a strong showing in 2024, a deteriorating external environment poses challenges for Malaysia in 2025.  We argue that the economy’s domestic resilience will hold up well.
  • In addition to recovering tourism and domestic spending, consumption will benefit from wage-uplifting policy measures that will benefit a significant portion of the labour force.
  • The investment upswing may also gain further momentum as previous investment pledges and catalytic initiatives start translating into shovels in the ground.

CX Daily: Chinese Merchants Plow Cash Into Overseas Warehouses Amid Global E-Commerce Boom

By Caixin Global

  • Overseas warehouses / In Depth: Chinese traders plow cash into overseas warehouses amid global e-commerce boom
  • Aerospace /Geovis Insighter’s IPO lifts off in style after Chang Guang Satellite’s listing crash
  • Energy Insider /China to restrict export of lithium battery tech, Tesla opens new Shanghai battery plant

Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-Dec (Forecast)

By Actinver

  • We expect inflation for the second half of December to be -0.02%, due to an extraordinary reduction in agricultural prices.
  • Inflation for this fortnight is typically at 0.18% bw.
  • The -0.02% bw forecast is explained by the reduction in agricultural products of -0.74% bw, versus the historical print of +1.03% bw.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Rio Tinto Loses Arbitration Against Entree Resources; Now What? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Rio Tinto Loses Arbitration Against Entree Resources; Now What?
  • Dream International Ltd (1126) – Wednesday, Oct 9, 2024
  • Sony Group Corporation: Can Its Steady Expansion in Music Segment Up Their Game? – Major Drivers
  • UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.
  • Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Rebranded as AZKO
  • Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK): Growth and Margin Concerns Plague Inherent Valuation
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Jan-2025): 2025 used car markets: EU EV prices drop, US tariffs rise.
  • Geely (175 HK): Deliveries Up by 32% in 2024 – BEV Supporting 2H24
  • Lumen Technologies Shakes Up the Industry with a Strategic Consumer–Enterprise Split! – Major Drivers
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – January 2025


Rio Tinto Loses Arbitration Against Entree Resources; Now What?

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Late 2024 Entree Resources (ETG CN) announced it won its arbitration against Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU). The vote by the three judges was unanimously in favor of Entree. 
  • Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) held its investor day in early December 2024 where almost its entire growth plan for 2025-2030 is predicated on Oyu Tolgoi’s (OT) performance.
  • Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) is now backed into a corner to find a solution for OT’s minority shareholder Entree Resources. The most logical outcome? RIO buys ETG in 2025.

Dream International Ltd (1126) – Wednesday, Oct 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Dream International, a Hong Kong-based company run by a Korean family, has seen significant growth in revenue and earnings per share over the past decade.
  • Despite facing challenges such as theft of funds and holding a large cash pile, the company has shown strong performance with an 18% return on equity over the past 15 years.
  • Trading at a low multiple of earnings and holding a significant cash reserve, Dream International presents an appealing investment opportunity for value investors due to its potential for continued growth and competitive advantages in the market.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Sony Group Corporation: Can Its Steady Expansion in Music Segment Up Their Game? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sony Group Corporation has exhibited a mix of strengths and challenges in its latest financial results, which provide insights into its current business landscape and future outlook.
  • Positive aspects of Sony’s results are largely attributable to robust performance in key segments like Gaming & Network Services (G&NS) and Music.
  • The company reported a 9% increase in consolidated sales, excluding the Financial Services segment, year-on-year, with operating income showing a significant increase of 57% for the quarter.

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

By Patrick Liao

  • United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.
  • We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.  
  • It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Rebranded as AZKO

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) has forged ahead with its rebranding after ending its licensing agreement with ACES US, changing its store branding to AZKO from 1st January 2025.
  • The new branding has already been rolled out to several stores but the company has given a 3-month window for all storefronts to be completed across Indonesia. 
  • We view this rebranding exercise as an opportunity for the company to lift sales further through heavy promotions and a more aggressive store rollout. Valuations remain attractive relative to history.

Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK): Growth and Margin Concerns Plague Inherent Valuation

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 1H24, Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK) reported revenue growth of 35% YoY to RMB2,382 million, mainly driven by a 37% YoY growth in hospital business.
  • Hygeia’s gross profit margin contracted 60bps YoY to 31.8%. Lower government grant led to 230bps operating margin squeeze to 21.6%.
  • The share price of Hygeia Healthcare has gone down almost 56% in the last one year. Accelerated organic growth and strengthening of margins are crucial to boost valuation.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Jan-2025): 2025 used car markets: EU EV prices drop, US tariffs rise.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • EV price cuts in Europe impact used car market, while US industry faces tariffs
  • Kyocera to sell $1.27 billion in non-core business due to declining profits
  • Toyota and Nvidia collaborate at CES 2025 for AI alliance towards autonomous future

Geely (175 HK): Deliveries Up by 32% in 2024 – BEV Supporting 2H24

By Ming Lu

  • Geely’s sales volume grew by 32% in 2024 and management set a growth target of 25% for 2025.
  • BEV boomed in 2H24 and will be the protagonist in 2025.
  • We believe the overseas market will also be promising for Geely.

Lumen Technologies Shakes Up the Industry with a Strategic Consumer–Enterprise Split! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lumen Technologies’ third-quarter 2024 performance outlines its strategic efforts and current challenges as it navigates a transformative phase to reposition the company within the digital networking and AI infrastructure sectors.
  • The company reported a revenue decline, reflecting ongoing headwinds from legacy business sectors, even as it strives to pivot its offerings toward newer, more competitive markets.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – January 2025

By Sameer Taneja


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Daily Brief Australia: Arcadium Lithium and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Home Straight After CFIUS Nod


Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Home Straight After CFIUS Nod

By David Blennerhassett

  • Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)‘s spread to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)‘s terms steadily increased subsequent to the US elections, ostensibly over Trump (Musk?) bluster, blowing out to 21% before Xmas.
  • Overnight, the transaction received the go ahead from CFIUS. Shares popped ~8.2% on the news. The transaction remains subject to investment screening approvals in Australia, Canada and Italy. 
  • Unlike Greenland and the Panama Canal, the takeover of Arcadium should complete “before mid-2025”; possibly this quarter.

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