In today’s briefing:
- Which Goldies are making real cash?
- [Earnings Preview] Exxon Q4 Profitability Faces Pressure from Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins
- [ETP 2025/04] WTI Falls on Trump’s Push for Higher Oil Output, Henry Hub Climbs on Colder Forecasts
- Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Lean & Unlevered IPO Is Next Intriguing Energy Play
- Goodyear Tire To Divest Dunlop In Favor Of Sumitomo Rubber
- Venture Global Inc. (VG): First Large IPO of the Year Falls Flat Following Massive Cut in Price
- What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 24 January (Signify | Just Eat TakeAway.com | SBM Offshore)
- EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views
Which Goldies are making real cash?
- Greatland Gold is transitioning from a developer to a producer with the acquisition of Telfer and Haveron assets from Newmont.
- In just 27 days of operation, they produced 29.9 thousand ounces of gold and 1.2 thousand tonnes of copper, exceeding expectations.
- The company has a healthy balance sheet with 145 million in cash, no debt, and plans for mine life extensions at Telfer, including stage seven and eight cutbacks.
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[Earnings Preview] Exxon Q4 Profitability Faces Pressure from Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins
- ExxonMobil’s Q4 revenue is expected to rise 2.5% YoY while its EPS is anticipated to fall 36.3%. Annual revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 1.9% YoY and 18.1%.
- Exxon expects Q4 2024 upstream earnings to drop USD 500–900 million QoQ due to lower crude prices, with refining margins further reducing earnings by USD 300–700 million.
- ExxonMobil plans to invest up to USD 30 billion in low-emission projects by 2030, with its Low Carbon Solutions business expected to contribute an additional USD 2 billion in earnings.
[ETP 2025/04] WTI Falls on Trump’s Push for Higher Oil Output, Henry Hub Climbs on Colder Forecasts
- For the week ending 17/Jan, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.1m barrel decrease. Gasoline stockpiles rose less than expected.
- U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 223 Bcf for the week ending 17/Jan, missing analyst expectations of a 270 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 0.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
- J.P. Morgan, HSBC, TD Cowen, Barclays, and Citigroup raised their 12-month PTs on SLB post its Q4 earnings. Halliburton reported a YoY decline in Q4 revenue and EPS.
Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Lean & Unlevered IPO Is Next Intriguing Energy Play
- With an unlevered balance sheet, Infinity Natural Resources is set to for both organic and M&A growth post-IPO.
- The company is coming public at a discount to peers Diversified Energy, Gulfport Energy and Magnolia Oil & Gas.
- Early channel check of this offering revealed that the deal is oversubscribed with a high-quality schedule across different regions.
Goodyear Tire To Divest Dunlop In Favor Of Sumitomo Rubber
- Transaction valued at around US$701 million in cash proceeds
- Goodyear to hold ground in Europe until the end of 2025
- Goodyear joins Dutch research body TNO for crash mitigation
Venture Global Inc. (VG): First Large IPO of the Year Falls Flat Following Massive Cut in Price
- Venture Global priced 70 million shares at $25 and the stock closed 4% below issue in its opening session.
- The underwriting lineup grossly mispriced the IPO from the start and needed to drastically reduce the price range of the transaction.
- The impact to the greater IPO market will be felt on the next large transaction.
What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 24 January (Signify | Just Eat TakeAway.com | SBM Offshore)
- In today’s edition: • Signify | FY25 adjusted EBITA-margin guidance below expectations / to start EUR 350-450m share repurchase program / CEO Eric Rondolat to step down after the AGM 2025 • Just Eat TakeAway.com | UK delivery apps urged for tansparency on pay and hiring process • SBM Offshore | BW Offshore wins pre-FEED contract for Equinor’s Bay du Nord FPSO
EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views
- The LatAm Corporate Index tightened by 3 basis points (bps) to 319 bps in the week ending on Friday, January 24, 2025.
- U.S. Treasuries saw modest increases, with the 10-year yield up 2 bps to 4.64% and the 5-year yield also up 2 bps to 4.45%.
- Cemex – Mexico Construction Key Indicators, YPF/Vista – Shale Boom Drives Argentina’s Energy Trade Surplus.