Energy & Materials Sector

• Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) holders get 0.7629 Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) shares plus A$0.5125 cash per share. 
• The independent expert (BDO) found the scheme fair and reasonable, valuing Vault at A$4.697 to A$6.345, compared with the scheme’s (default) consideration of A$3.751 to A$6.769.
• The deal looks done. The ACCC waiver is in, and no shareholder holds a blocking stake. The large shareholders are mostly index funds, with few retail holders. 

• Japan Petroleum Exploration (1662 JP) is coming up “cheap” versus Inpex Corp (1605 JP) on my monitor; however this Holdco relationship is becoming less meaningful.
• Preceding my comments on JAPEX and Inpex are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• After Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) tabled a “superior” cash/scrip Offer, via a Scheme, for Vault Minerals (VAU AU) on the 6th July, Regis Resources (RRL AU) folded its tent (as widely expected).  
• Genesis subsequently firmed terms on the 14th July, offering 0.7629 new GMD shares for every Vault share, plus A$0.475/share in cash – for an implied Offer consideration of A$5.274/share.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a 11th November Scheme Meeting, and expected implementation on the 25th November. The IE (BDO) concluded ” fair and reasonable“. Clean deal.

• An AI bottleneck that has handed back most of its gains and is now regaining momentum
• Of the two main products, one has no real competitor at the leading edge, and the other has a moat that holds for at least two more years.
• It also contains a metals kicker that is still to come – if you believe gold/silver/copper move up from here.

• MegaChem reported a robust set of results for 1H26.
• The Group’s 1H26 revenue increased 2.8% YoY to S$65.9 million, while gross profit increased 17.2% YoY to S$18.8 million.
• The Group’s overall gross margin increased from 25.1% in 1H25 to 28.6% in 1H26, mainly due to firmer chemical prices. 

Highlights

• Physical premiums compressed as INE prices rise much faster than physical benchmarks by mid-Sept

• Elevated finished-tire inventories and high raw-material costs encouraged largely need-based buying rather than aggressive stock building

• Decline in rubber imports and tire exports reflected cautious procurement amid softer key tire export markets’ demand

• Lion’s maiden Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) marks an important milestone for Power Metallic and strengthens its investment case.
• The estimate defines 4.145 million tonnes of Indicated resources at 3.86% copper equivalent (CuEq) and 0.601 million tonnes of Inferred resources at 4.01% CuEq, containing approximately 406 million pounds CuEq. Around 87% of the tonnage is classified as Indicated, providing encouraging geological confidence and a solid foundation for engineering studies.
• The resource distribution offers promising development options.

• Mt Cuthbert provides AIC Mines with a pathway to materially expand its North Queensland copper footprint.
• Mt Cuthbert adds a second growth hub for AIC Mines At the original hub, Eloise and Jericho drive near-term expansion Copper production poised to almost double Company management sees a “transformational opportunity”

• Five corporate offers have been made for listed producers so far in 2025–26: Capricorn, GeoPark, Genel, Pharos and BlueNord.
• Capricorn and Pharos attracted competing bidders.
• In addition, Maurel & Prom has agreed to acquire Gran Tierra’s Colombia and Ecuador business for US$1.33 bn, and Ithaca is buying Suncor’s offshore Canada assets for US$860–1,110 mm.

• The Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)/ Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) merger should complete mid-November while Steadfast (SDF AU)‘s acquisition could complete by end-November.
• There will be ad hoc inclusions for the S&P/ASX 100 Index and S&P/ASX 200 Index following the merger and the acquisition to maintain the number of index constituents.
• Then there will be more changes for the S&P/ASX 50 Index, S&P/ASX 100 Index and S&P/ASX 200 Index at the December rebalance.

• Global Lithium Resources Limited signed a definitive agreement to be acquired by Titan Lithium for A$1.15/share, with a 73% premium to pre-announcement price.
• International Money Express is being acquired by Western Union for $16/share in cash, with nearly all closing conditions satisfied except California state approval.
• Harte Hanks is being acquired by Star Equity Holdings, with a buyout price representing a 100% premium to pre-announcement levels.

• Corteva completed the Vylor seed spin-off on 1 October 2026. Both stocks began regular-way trading the same day, with no when-issued market for price discovery.
• The combined position is up ~29% since announcement, but CTVA fell 17.5% from its first regular-way open while VYLR rose 2.5%
• Our SOTP implies $18.00 (+51%) for New Corteva and $62.00 (-8%) for Vylor, making the orphaned parent, not the spin, as the more compelling mispricing opportunity.

• Elnusa’s upstream business is structurally captive to Pertamina’s operational and budgetary priorities, with 78% of H1 2026 revenue derived from affiliates. True strategic independence is a myth; however, Elnusa’s robust downstream logistics division (Elnusa Petrofin) acts as a critical counter-cyclical cash stabilizer, accounting for 65% of group revenue in H1 2026.
• The rumored acquisition of Pertamina Drilling Services Indonesia (PDSI) is the primary strategic wildcard. While a valuation in the Rp3.4 to Rp5.0 trillion range would flip Elnusa from net cash to net debt, the transaction would be day-one earnings accretive, potentially lifting consolidated operating margins by 100 basis points and transforming Elnusa into an integrated drilling-and-services giant.
• TKDN (local content) compliance of over 40% is maintained not by avoiding foreign technology, but by acting as the localized gateway for global providers. Partnerships with players like Stryde for wireless nodes and SNF SA for polymer injection allow Elnusa to bypass import barriers and capture premium-margin projects under the state-mandated energy transition roadmap.

• Global Lithium Resources (GL1:AX) merger arbitrage spread widened to 16%-20%; shareholder approval likely; FIRB approval pending.
• Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY) resubmitted NDA with alternative manufacturer; FDA inspection of original facility still pending.
• Ingenia Communities Group (INA:AX) granted Warburg Pincus due diligence access; spread remains at 10%; update expected soon.

• In 9M26, 80 SGX primary-listed companies repurchased S$2.38 billion of shares, surpassing 2025’s S$2.23 billion total.
• Singtel and Keppel led 9M26 buybacks with S$1.05 billion and S$365 million, representing 59% of total consideration.
• Seatrium launched a new S$200 million buyback programme after fully utilising a previous S$100 million programme.

• Base oils supply is tighter than usual for the time of year, as Asian barrels filling overseas gaps face a competing call from recovering demand in their regional markets

• Singapore’s export recovery shows how additional barrels are becoming available as earlier disruptions ease.

• That extra Asian supply is now facing a competing call from within the region as demand recovers, while maintenance in Taiwan and Saudi Arabia will remove more production.

• Zhejiang Hailiang Co A (002203 CH) , aims to raise at least US$300m in its H-share listing.
• Zhejiang Hailiang (ZH) was established under its predecessor in 2001 by founder Mr. Feng Hailiang. Prior to its expansion into a global enterprise, the company focused on copper tubes.
• In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• Crude oil futures were rowing back from the previous session’s firm gains on Friday as increase in Middle East crude exports helped to offset the rise in geopolitical tensions.
• Front-month Dec26 ICE  Brent futures were 0.1% lower at $102.20/b (1941 BST), while Nov26 NYMEX WTI was at $91.10/b , down 1.9% versus Thursday’s settle, wiping out recent gains.
• Both benchmarks had traded lower earlier before paring losses in late-day trading.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: In Australia, currently five pair trade opportunities persist across three sectors.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Australia’s ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 28th September, published on the 2nd October.
• The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.4bn into “Banks”; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of “Interactive Media”. Net shorts increased A$0.5bn week-on-week.
• Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: BHP Group (BHP AU), Steadfast (SDF AU), Artrya (AYA AU), ECHOiQ (EIQ AU), Catalyst Metals (CYL AU), and Core Lithium (CXO AU).

• Once again, Iran has indicated it will not budge on its demands reiterated in its seven-day plan, which are effectively Tehran’s conditions itemized in the original MOU.     
• There is no indication that President Trump is willing to accept Iran’s terms and has said he will make his decision whether to resume military strikes or not relatively soon.               
• New Houthi attacks against Saudi Aramco energy assets, in addition to the above, all support our thesis for the fourth quarter.                

• Financial engineering obscures underlying operational headwinds: BHP’s FY26 net debt reduction to $8.7 billion was heavily supported by the $4.3 billion Antamina silver streaming transaction and the $2.0 billion GIP infrastructure sell-down, rather than organic free cash flow. Under the hood, BHP faces severe medium-term operational pressure, highlighted by an 8% to 16% guided drop in FY27 group copper volumes and surging unit costs at Escondida.
• M&A discipline has turned to structural avoidance: The walk-away from Anglo American in late 2025 was driven by a strict refusal to absorb the $330 million break fee triggered by the Teck-Anglo merger, alongside the refusal to bypass internal hurdle rates (15% post-tax nominal IRR for general M&A, shaded to 11% to 12% for tier-one copper). The corporate strategy has pivoted permanently under new CEO Brandon Craig to disciplined, organic debottlenecking over dilutive, mega-scale acquisitions.
• Royalty and capital write-off dynamics reshape project NPVs: While the progressive Queensland coal royalty structures (reaching up to 40% on prices over $300/t) have driven BMA’s return on capital employed down to 0% and forced the mothballing of Saraji South, the Jansen potash project NPV remains highly protected. Despite Jansen Stage 2 capital overruns of $2.0 billion (revised to $6.9 billion), Saskatchewan’s 120% capital construction tax write-off shields the project from potash production taxes for its initial decade, sustaining an 11% IRR.

• The Sweetwater transaction represents a fundamental transformation for Uranium Royalty Corp. (URC), shifting it from a speculative, low-cash-flow uranium optionality play to a massive diversified land and critical minerals royalty powerhouse. While the transaction adds US$74 million in average annual adjusted EBITDA from stable Wyoming soda ash royalties, it has diluted original shareholders down to a 41% pro forma ownership stake.
• The assumed gross debt of US$625 million (approaching US$600 million on a net basis) is structurally serviceable due to the low-CapEx, high-margin nature of the underlying trona royalties. However, it introduces an atypical leverage profile for a royalty company and places a premium on immediate operational cash flows to service interest payments, restricting URC’s flexibility to aggressively bid on new pure-play uranium assets.
• A severe technical overhang has been created by the registration of up to 226.7 million shares for resale on October 1, 2026. With private equity giant Orion Resource Partners and the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan holding 43% and 16% of the company respectively, the market faces a massive liquidity hurdle once the 180-day post-closing lock-up expires in early 2027. This overhang, combined with persistent skepticism regarding the strategic shift away from a “pure-play” uranium thesis, is likely to depress the stock’s valuation multiple relative to its net asset value (NAV).

• WhiteHawk’s underwritten assets must compete in a highly aggressive aggregator landscape where major multi-basin players like Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) and Black Stone Minerals (BSM) routinely outbid them on broadly marketed public packages; consequently, WhiteHawk’s proprietary pipeline is heavily dependent on bilateral, private-equity secondary exits to generate accretion.
• The transition from a private entity boasting a 36% cash-on-cash yield to a public vehicle requires balancing investor demands for an 8% to 10% dividend yield with heavy capital reinvestment, utilizing dilutive Series E Preferred Stock and private common stock placements to fund growth rather than relying on internally generated cash flow.
• While WhiteHawk’s headline exposure of 13% of total 2025 U.S. dry gas production is a major marketing point, it is structurally diluted by a tiny average net revenue interest (NRI) of 0.21% across their latest acquisitions, exposing them to severe operator concentration under EQT, Range Resources, and Expand Energy.
• The restatement of 2025 financial statements (resulting in a restated net loss of $(3.6) million on $67.6 million in revenue) exposed significant accounting weaknesses in management fee structures and cash-matching controls, creating governance friction alongside a highly generous $130.0 million internalization of management completed concurrently with their June 2026 IPO.

• Uranium Royalty Corp. is a diversified royalty and streaming company focused on uranium and critical minerals, holding various royalty interests and physical uranium inventory.
• The company holds royalty interests in 24 uranium properties and 7 soda ash/trona operations, and is a large Wyoming landowner. It acquired Sweetwater Entities on July 27, 2026.
• For six months ended June 30, 2026, the company reported $43,114 thousand revenue and $14,946 thousand net income, with $602,990 thousand net long-term debt.

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• WhiteHawk Minerals Corp. is a natural gas mineral and royalty business focused on delivering cash flow and total returns to investors through disciplined acquisition and ownership of high-quality interests.
• WhiteHawk Minerals achieved approximately 38% cash-on-cash return to initial investors through 49 consecutive monthly cash dividends prior to the IPO.
• WhiteHawk Minerals is a premier natural gas mineral and royalty company, but it restated financial statements and identified material weaknesses in internal controls.

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• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• As US rate hikes are pushed out, the long end of the bond market continues to weaken
• October should provide the resolution as to whether the market catches up or catches down

• I tally 41 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
• Four new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Northern Star Resources (NST AU), Meteoric Resources Nl (MEI AU), Zheneng Jinjiang Environment (ZJE SP), and Goodbaby International (1086 HK).
• Key updates/news also took place on: Ingenia Communities (INA AU), oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU), Get Nice (64 HK), and Yinson Holdings (YNS MK).

Highlights

• Thailand prepares for potentially drier conditions into early 2027

• India identifies RRII 208, 417 and 430 for long-term stress tolerance

• Lower-frequency tapping advised to protect trees through El Niño

• Syrah Resources Limited (ASX: SYR) is a vertically integrated natural graphite and Active Anode Material (AAM) producer with strategically significant assets: the tier-one Balama Graphite Operation in Mozambique (the world’s largest natural graphite reserve outside China) and the downstream Vidalia commercial AAM facility in Louisiana, USA.
• The company stands as a primary Western beneficiary of EV supply chain localization, driven by US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) rules, Section 30D/48C tax incentives, and automotive OEM diversification away from Chinese dominance in anode manufacturing.
• Despite commanding first-mover advantages and substantial US Department of Energy (DOE) loan support, Syrah faces elevated near-term uncertainty stemming from persistent operational cash burn (-$101.9M operating cash flow in FY25), low Chinese-driven benchmark graphite pricing, and asset ramp-up execution risks.

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• Quarterly Coverage Update Q3/26 marked a return to outperformance for our coverage universe.
• Our covered companies rose 7.1% on average during the quarter, ahead of the S&P 500 (+2.2%), the TSX (+1.1%), and the TSXV, which declined 1.6%, generating ~6% of alpha over our benchmark (the TSX).
• Our coverage universe has now outperformed its benchmark in seven of the nine quarters since we began tracking it (see Figure 1 below).

• • Trago Energy, in which Sintana holds a 49% indirect interest, is transferring its 10% participating interest in PEL 90 (4.9% net to Sintana) to Harmattan Energy, a Chevron affiliate.
• The consideration comprises: – US$11 mm in cash at completion (~US$5.4 mm net to Sintana, before fees and taxes).
• – Contingent consideration payable on appraisal and production milestones, including revenues associated with commercial production.

• Searles brings more than current earnings. The transaction would move FEAM from a pre-revenue developer to an operating US borates producer while retaining Fort Cady as its primary long-term growth asset.
• Existing borates, sodium sulfate, and salt production provide the starting point, but the acquired footprint includes idled or underutilized processing assets, mineral rights, rail, utilities, and power infrastructure.
• This creates several potential avenues for incremental production and cash flow that can be pursued selectively rather than requiring another greenfield build.

• Friday Takeaway—delving a little deeper into UK small caps This will delve a little deeper on individual companies and focus on non-house stocks under £200m market capitalisation to raise awareness 25 September 2026 Alphabetically arranged Share prices and market capitalisations taken from Alpha Terminal from the current price on the day of publication.
• Top three shareholders are taken from the websites of the companies that we are writing about, unless there is a more up to date TR-1 notification RNS announcement.
• Arc Minerals Ltd 0.65p £15.99m* (ARCM.L) *Source: Alpha Terminal.

• Anode and Separator Margin Bottoming: Synthetic graphite anode pricing in China has hit a structural floor between RMB 25,000 and 30,000 per ton in 2026. This pricing compression has forced profitability thresholds to a high capacity utilization rate of 75% to 80%, making vertical integration of graphitization the primary survival mechanism for midstream players.
• Geopolitical Strategy and Sweden Scrappage: Shanghai Putailai (PTL) officially terminated its proposed USD 1.3 billion (SEK 13 billion), 100,000-ton Sweden anode facility in early 2025 due to unacceptable conditions imposed by the Swedish Strategic Products Inspectorate (ISP) under their 2024 Foreign Direct Investment Act. PTL has redirected its global expansion to a USD 297 million, 50,000-ton plant in Kedah, Malaysia, to bypass Western regulatory barriers while maintaining an offshore hedge.
• A+H Listing and Technological Moat: The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) approved PTL’s secondary listing of up to 269.33 million H-shares on September 24, 2026. This capital structure priority, combined with their 100% ownership of equipment maker Jiangsu KATOP Automation, provides PTL with a unique moat: internal machinery capex that is 30% to 40% cheaper than peers and proprietary tech to commercialize composite current collectors in partnership with CATL.

• Meteoric Resources Nl (MEI AU) owns Brazil’s Caldeira ionic clay project. It has agreed a scheme with Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) at 0.0207 LYC shares per share, implying A$0.286.
• The offer looks attractive. It values Meteoric at a premium to its closest listed peer, Viridis Mining and Minerals Lt (VMM AU), and is above historical exchange ratios.
• The vote looks low risk. No disinterested holder has a blocking stake, substantial shareholder Tolga Kumova supports the scheme, and the small retail base makes the headcount test low risk.

• After Lynas (LYC AU) tapped the market last year for $825mn, it was widely expected it had Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM AU) or Meteoric Resources (MEI AU) in mind. 
• As discussed in Meteoric Resources (MEI AU) Taps Market, As Washington Also Targets Brazil’s Rare Earths, Meteoric, one of a handful of Aussie-listed-plays developing Brazilian rare-earths, also tapped the market. 
• Now Lynas has made an all-scrip offer for Meteoric. Unanimous board support, plus largest shareholder. Lynas will also extend an interim loan facility. Possible implementation in March 2027. Clean deal.

• Northern Star Resources (NST AU) rejected the unsolicited, non-binding takeover proposal from Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ) as opportunistic and inadequate, but sweetened or hostile follow-up bids are expected.
• What happens next may influence Northern Star Resources price depending on which scenario play out (there are 5 scenarios, check our MARKET CONTEXT paragraph for details).
• Stock sentiment is neutral-to-bullish short-term, driven by potential M&A floor/sweetened bids from Gold Fields and elevated gold prices, our model sees potential upside from here.

• Sustained peak margins in 2025/2026 are cyclical, not structural: The 2026 oil price volatility and the onset of the 2% ReFuelEU Aviation mandate in 2025 have pushed Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) prices to over $2,600 per ton, but the industry remains highly cyclical. Historical oversupply in 2024 halved Neste’s margins, indicating that EcoCeres must be valued on a mid-cycle valuation framework rather than its current windfall earnings.
• EcoCeres holds a unique yield and feedstock flexibility advantage: Under CEO Matti Lievonen (former Neste CEO), EcoCeres has optimized its proprietary Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) technology to achieve an 85% total product yield and process low-grade Palm Oil Mill Effluent (POME) at its new Pasir Gudang, Johor facility. This offsets the impact of the elimination of China’s 13% export tax rebate on raw Used Cooking Oil (UCO).
• Johor expansion is the strategic bridge to a $5 billion IPO valuation: The 420,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) Johor plant, commissioned in October 2025 at a cost of $500 million, allows EcoCeres to bypass EU anti-dumping duties on Chinese HVO. This capacity doubling serves as the financial foundation for its targeted $1 billion Hong Kong IPO by the end of 2026.

• H.B. Fuller Company has suddenly found itself at the center of an unusually revealing valuation debate.
• Activist investor Ancora Holdings has increased its proposal for the company’s Building Adhesive Solutions, or BAS, business to between $1.2 billion and $1.4 billion in cash after an earlier offer was rejected.
• The headline number is striking because BAS represents only about 20% of H.B. Fuller’s consolidated revenue, yet the revised proposal equates to roughly half of the company’s equity value.

• Putailai, a lithium-ion battery materials and equipment supplier, is seeking an A+H listing. CICC is the sole sponsor.
• We look at the company’s core segments: battery key materials and battery automation equipment.
• We discuss our preliminary thoughts on the company’s valuation based on the A-H premium.

• Structural Financial Precariousness: CitroTech’s commercial ambitions are severely constrained by its balance sheet. As of June 30, 2026, the company carried an accumulated deficit of $123.3 million against a cash balance of just $2.5 million, forcing a going-concern warning and a highly dilutive $7.0 million proposed S-1 equity offering on September 28, 2026.
• The HexiTech JV is the Only Viable Scaling Pathway: The 50/50 joint venture with Hexion (HexiTech LLC) shifts the heavy capex of chemical manufacturing to Hexion’s existing footprint. However, CitroTech’s financial participation is entirely dependent on a $6.0 million Hexion loan facility to fund its capital contributions, meaning Hexion holds immense structural leverage.
• Moat is Regulatory and Actuarial, Not Patent-Based: CitroTech’s 31 issued patents are chemically vulnerable to workarounds due to their organic, citric-acid-based nature. The true barrier to entry is the 12-to-18-month qualification cycle required for building code certifications (such as the DrJ TER 2504-101) and the developing actuarial models of major insurance carriers.

• News that the U.S. is sending another aircraft carrier to the Gulf plus renewed tanker attacks provides support for our thesis, though the carrier move is a “rotation.”    
• Nonetheless, the carrier rotation in tandem with the tanker attacks do not serve as a foundation for building mutual trust, as the “proposals” intended.
• While none of this guarantees a renewal of major military action, at the least it does not negate our previously discussed fourth quarter scenario

• What you need to know: • Mayfair Gold signed an engagement letter and a non-binding term sheet with Macquarie Bank for a proposed $300M project financing facility, with a $25M early drawdown tranche at closing.
• • The facility comes at CORRA + 4.75% per annum, lowering to CORRA + 4.25% after project completion.
• Also announced was a $10M equity investment by Macquarie at $4.26/share (10% premium to the 5-day VWAP).

• Crude oil futures pared early losses on Thursday as geopolitical tensions and the crunch on refined products offset the bounce in supplies from the Middle East.
• Front-month Dec26 ICE  Brent futures were 4.6% higher at $ 102.49/b (2054 BST), while Nov26 NYMEX  WTI was at $93.14/b , up 3% versus Wednesday’s settle.
• Oil prices rebounded on reports that China would implement a ban on refined product exports, adding to Russia’s suspension on fuel exports and the US weighing up its own diesel ban.

• For September 2026, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$26bn.
• The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~46%; and a year-to-date average of ~45%.
• The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.

• Corteva (CTVA) to complete the spin-off of its Seed business as Vylor (VYLR) on October 1, 2026. 1:1 distribution, tax-free, regular way trading of both begins the same day.
• Our SOTP fair value is $80.00/share. Vylor at $62.00 (15.0x FY27E EBITDA) and New Corteva at $18.00 (9.0x FY27E EBITDA).
• We prefer Vylor given it is larger, higher-margin, faster growing, with scarcity value and licensing upside. New Corteva is a quality franchise but more cyclical and carrying legacy liabilities.

• Global Lithium Resources (GL1) signed a definitive agreement to be acquired by Titan Lithium for A$1.15/share.
• Titan Lithium provided a credit facility of up to A$120m to advance Manna mine development during acquisition.
• Foreign Investment Review Board approval is a hurdle due to potential ties between Titan Lithium and Chinese entities.

• The U.S. has apparently, via mediators, sent its own seven-day “trust building” proposal to Tehran which suggests it involves the issue of “sequencing.”   
• That is, Iran wants the U.S. to end its blockade and release financial assets first, with Iran then “opening” the Strait of Hormuz at the end of the seven days.                                         
• We are speculating that the U.S. wants Iran to “open” the Strait first, and then talk about the blockade and financial assets, to be followed by the nuclear issues.           

• Shandong Linuo Pharmaceutical Packaging Co.,Ltd. is an established Chinese provider of borosilicate technical glass, specializing in pharmaceutical glass packaging and household heat-resistant glass.
• The company ranked ninth in China’s pharmaceutical glass packaging market and first in China’s household heat-resistant glass market by sales revenue in 2025.
• The company reported a decrease in profit for FY2025 and negative net cash from operating activities for FY2025 and H1 2026.

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• A rare pure-play listing. EcoCeres, a Bain-backed Hong Kong producer of sustainable aviation fuel, targets a ~US$1bn IPO by end-2026, in a market created by law.
• It lists near a margin peak. The 2026 oil shock inflated SAF profits; in 2024, oversupply more than halved Neste’s margins. Value it on mid-cycle earnings, not the windfall.
• Price discipline matters. Law-mandated green sectors (solar, wind, renewable fuels) trade at 6–12x EV/EBITDA. The reported US$5bn valuation implies ~14x. Engage below US$3.5bn; pass above US$5bn.

• On 18 September, Nativo announced that it had signed a binding letter of intent with a Bermuda-based multi-asset precious metal mining company (Chancery Royalty Limited) for $3.5m worth of project finance and an equity subscription worth an aggregate £0.6m.
• The $3.5m worth of project finance will be exclusively applied to Phase One of Nativo’s ‘La Patona’ gold ore processing plant in Peru, and it is designed to cover all remaining construction and commissioning costs.
• The £0.6m of equity enables Nativo to start work immediately, but it can be applied to other aspects of the business. 

• The Vesuvius Proposal represents an Operational Dream but a Financial and Regulatory Nightmare: Highly complementary product sets (Vesuvius’s flow control/foundry and RHI’s basic refractories) but the heavily debt-funded proposal of £1.37 billion (at 551 pence per share) would push RHIM’s leverage well above its comfort zone and covenants during a cyclical low.
• Antitrust Blockades in India and Europe are Inevitable: India’s Competition Commission (CCI) and the European Commission will demand heavy structural divestments in continuous casting flow control (slide gates/stoppers) and unshaped monolithics, severely eroding the targeted €80 million to €100 million in potential purchasing and SG&A synergies.
• Transition to Gustavo Franco Signals a Structural Shift to Capital Discipline: With Stefan Borgas retiring on November 1, 2026, Franco’s background in the high-margin, low-cost Latin American mining operations suggests a pivot toward conserving cash, completing the integration of the €391 million Resco acquisition, and optimizing the existing plant network over purely dilutive megadeals.

• The BASF Takeover Approach Valuation Gap: Evonik’s recent rejection of BASF’s €22.15 per share (voluntary public takeover offer valuing the equity at €10.3 billion and enterprise value at €14.2 billion) as “too low” highlights a massive valuation mismatch. An all-cash offer of €25.00 to €27.00 per share is the realistic threshold required to clear both the Evonik board and the RAG-Stiftung.
• RAG-Stiftung’s Dividend Pivot and Liquid Cash Demands: RAG-Stiftung’s 43.8% controlling stake is highly sensitive to yield due to its €20 billion portfolio mandate to fund German hard-coal mining “eternity liabilities” (Ewigkeitslasten). The foundation’s willingness to accept equity in a transaction is near-zero; it requires cash or extremely high-yielding liquid paper to replace the cash flow lost from Evonik’s recent dividend cut to a 40% to 60% adjusted net income payout model (which yielded a transitional €1.00 per share in June 2026).
• Prohibitive Antitrust Remediation Risks: A combination faces substantial European Commission scrutiny. To preserve the economic rationale of the transaction, BASF must retain Evonik’s high-margin Specialty Additives (surfactants and polyurethane catalysts) and Alkoxides businesses. However, mandatory divestitures of overlapping European alkoxides and coatings additive lines would destroy up to 30% of the target’s high-margin EBITDA, leaving a highly commoditized and cyclically exposed core.

• Evonik rejected BASF’s reported €22.15 approach; €24–27 looks achievable without stretching the valuation, with €25 our base case.
• At €25, BASF pays 7.17x FY26E EBITDA, falling to 6.06x after €400m synergies, while RAG’s 43.8% stake is worth €5.10bn.
• We derive a €23.00 target price from our scenario analysis, 15.8% above €19.84, with a 70% probability assigned to a transaction.

• RHI Magnesita N.V. has proposed a cash-and-shares takeover bid for UK-based Vesuvius plc, valuing the company at approximately GBP 1.4 billion.
• The combination could bring together RHI Magnesita’s refractory leadership with Vesuvius’ molten metal flow control technologies, creating a broader industrial solutions platform.
• Indian subsidiaries could gain access to wider technology, product capabilities and customer solutions, while investors need to track integration risks and competitive overlap.

• Refinancing risk falls: YPF’s enlarged US$1.0bn tender can retire all targeted 2027s and roughly half the 2029s, materially reducing near-term maturities.
• Credit impact stays manageable: The transaction adds only modest leverage, while improved market access and a cleaner maturity profile strengthen liquidity ahead of the 2027 election.
• Value is selective: We remain Neutral on YPF as curve dislocations create bond-specific opportunity, but not enough broad valuation support to justify an issuer-level upgrade.

• Nucor’s management expects a 16% QoQ increase in EPS, with higher pricing and stronger volumes supporting earnings growth across both key segments.
• Iowa’s planned steel capacity could reshape the longer-term supply balance, though the market has several years to absorb the additional tons before production ramps.
• Elevated startup costs, raw material pressures, and Q4 seasonality emerge as key headwinds to monitor through the remainder of 2026.

• Bullish call positioning defined the week of September 21.
• Extreme low put-call ratios hit several names across autos, utilities, and financials.
• Yet bearish hedging surged in equal measure elsewhere – earnings-linked put buying and sector-level stress signals kept the week far from one-directional.

• Northern Star’s relative underperformance has attracted Gold Fields, one of the world’s largest gold producers, in what brokers characterise as a strategically appealing combination.
• Northern Star shares have been de-rated in 2026 Weaker share price attracts unwelcome interest from Gold Fields Northern Star’s rejection belies the potential for a global gold producing behemoth

• Crude oil futures largely surrendered early gains on Monday after reports that talks between the US and Iran were set to continue, focusing on Iran’s nuclear programme.
• Nov26 ICE  Brent futures were 1.3% higher at  $105.72/b (2036 BST), while Nov26 NYMEX  WTI was at $92.99/b , up 0.6% versus Friday’s settle.
• According to Axios and other media outlets, President Trump could be willing to trade Iranian sanctions relief and release some Iranian frozen funds in return for concrete steps from Tehran regarding its enrichment plans.

• Record Revenue and Robust Demand Profile: PA Resources Bhd (PARB MK) achieved record full-year FY2026 revenue of RM648.64 million (+19.9% YoY) and net profit of RM31.03 million (+10.8% YoY), capped by a record 4Q26 quarterly net profit of RM18.00 million on RM204.83 million in revenue, driven by strong extrusion delivery volumes and elevated operational throughput.
• Transformational First Solar Renewal and Capacity Expansion: The group secured its largest contract in corporate history—an 18-month supply agreement renewal with First Solar valued at US$322.17 million (~RM1.31 billion) effective July 2026—while actively executing a RM100 million capacity expansion that will more than double extrusion capacity from 3,500 tonnes to 8,500 tonnes per month by 2H FY2027.
• Compelling Risk-Reward with Defensive Income: Trading at ~10.1x FY2026 P/E and offering a dependable 4.65% dividend yield (RM0.010 DPS; ~48.5% payout ratio), supported by RM255.45 million in newly secured banking credit lines, PARB offers an attractive entry point into the global solar photovoltaic supply chain and downstream industrial manufacturing.

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• The Gas Supply Agreement first signed in July 2024 with Genesis now covers all gas produced by NZE and L&M Energy.
• The agreement has no take-or-pay obligations for NZE or L&M.
• We understand the gas will be sold at a fixed price, but the terms are confidential.

• The MV Junior Gold Miners index tracks the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. Lots of AUM on the ETF means big impact sometimes.
• There will be no index changes for the December 2026 rebal event. However, we currently expect a one-way flow of US$43mm for December 2026 due to capping/re-capping.
• The Vault-Genesis deal is expected to complete before the December 2026 rebal. Vault faces over two months of ADV to sell and Genesis over a month to buy, both US$1bn+.

• The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large- and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. It underlies the biggest listed sector ETF (GDX).
• We currently don’t see any index changes for the December 2026 rebal. The potential ADDs would need to significantly outperform to trigger an index change.
• The Vault-Genesis deal is likely to complete before the December 2026 rebal and is expected to trigger passive flows in MV Global Gold and MV Junior Gold Miners indices.

• Northern Star Resources (NST AU) rejected Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)‘s proposal (0.3125 shares plus A$7.25 cash, implied A$27.00, 22.1% premium). It cited undervaluation, scrip risk, opportunistic timing and onerous conditions.
• Elliott, the key activist, needs a higher offer. Its return would be modest; NST’s turnaround has barely started; Gold Fields keeps most synergies; and hard exclusivity shuts out rival bidders.
• Gold Fields will likely return at around A$28–30, with more cash and no hard exclusivity. Synergies and past deals support this, but the deal’s size acts as a constraint.

• The SP Select Sector indices are a family of 11 sector-specific indices derived from the SP 500 index based on GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) classifications.
• Intra-Review changes from two M&A deals and a spin-off could trigger Select Sector flows before the December 2026 rebalance.
• We expect one-way flows of ~US$7bn across the Select Sector indices, which should grow as the December 2026 rebalance approaches.

• Structural cost reset, not a coal-price bet.

• The MBJ integrated haul road + barging chain (capex ~US$150 mil) removes third-party trucking on TRA coal and takes ~US$7–8/t out of the annual cost base.

• That is a self-help margin gain that survives a flat coal price.

• Red Avenue New Materials Group (RANMG HK) raised ~US$380m in its Hong Kong IPO.
• It operates across rubber additives for tyres and other chemical products, electronic materials, and fully biodegradable materials.
• In this note, we look at its past performance, valuation, and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• Aica-Kogyo of Japan now holds 40% of Stylam and sits as joint-promoter, after one branch of the founding Gupta family exited entirely and another stayed on to run the company.
• A boardroom rift that had capped Stylam’s valuation multiple is now resolved, and HDFC Securities has re-rated the stock on governance clarity alone, before counting any Aica synergy.
• The real story is not the stake sale, it’s the asymmetry: who left, who stayed, and what that split implies for capital allocation, exports and the next capacity cycle.

• Asia’s spare capacity is filling gaps left by tighter US, European and Middle East supply, but recovering demand and fourth-quarter maintenance will test its limits.

• Traditional suppliers are losing export availability, giving Asian producers more room to meet requirements in the US, Europe and other overseas markets.

• The response spans the region, with South Korea, Taiwan, India, Singapore and China all sending cargoes beyond Asia.

• Copper delivered 36% of divisional EBITDA in H1 FY26 (US$5.7bn, 66% margin), up from 6.5% in H2 FY23, as Oyu Tolgoi underground ramps up.
• Iron ore’s share has halved to 43%, with EBITDA/t down 65% from its peak; capex is rotating to Simandou, the Pilbara replacement, lithium, and aluminum, while copper enters harvest.
• Valuation at 13.7x FY26e P/E, 7.3x EV/EBITDA and 5.1% yield. We analyze the Rio Tinto (RIO US) pivot 

• New York awarded 1.7 GW of renewable and energy storage projects backed by more than US$3.7 billion in investment, targeting operation by 2030.
• Meanwhile, the Trump administration is preparing to relax federal fuel economy standards, lowering the 2031 target to 34.5 mpg and rolling back EV-supportive policies, drawing criticism from environmental groups.
• The EPA also proposed repealing Biden-era power plant rules that required carbon capture or closure, a move advocates say could raise emissions, notably in Georgia. 

• Northern Star Resources (NST AU) announced two major downgrades this year, hampered by old hardware, leading to a ~19% single-day share price fall on the second cut.
• NST made some concessions, mollifying activist Elliott (and the market). For now. I discussed this situation in Stay The Course As Northern Star (NST AU) Extends Olive Branch To Elliott.
• NST announced this morning that three days prior my note it received, and (has now) summarily rejected a cash/scrip Offer from Gold Fields (GFI SJ), or a A$27/share implied price.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: In Japan, currently three pair trade opportunities persist across three sectors.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• The copper price has stagnated for four months, struggling to maintain new highs, and recently slumped on reports that the U.S. maybe wavering on implementing more tariffs of the metal
• BHP’s price implies very aggressive copper price targets which we view as insufficiently incorporating the risks of a weakening AI-boom, low to no additional US tariffs and broader economic cyclicality 
• There is still significant downside not just to our valuation, which sits at a pre-AI-boom-inventory-imbalance-driven-parabolic-copper-surge level, but even to a moderate midpoint between our conservative outlook and the market price 

• Market Leadership in Specialty Compounding & Functional Films: RIKEN TECHNOS CORPORATION (4220 JP) holds an entrenched global niche position in synthetic resin compounding (polyvinyl chloride and thermoplastic elastomers) and specialty extruded/calendered films, serving high-specification transportation, healthcare, electronics, and construction end-markets with manufacturing operations across Japan, the United States, Thailand, and Indonesia.
• Operational Mix Shift Driving Superior Cash Conversion: Despite moderate top-line volume growth (3-year revenue CAGR of 2.08%), product mix optimization toward high-margin elastomer compounds and precision films has expanded gross margins to 22.43% and EBITDA margins to 15.09% in recent quarters, underpinning a 3-year EPS CAGR of 28.70% and Free Cash Flow of ¥8.56B in FY2026.
• Proactive Capital Allocation and Accelerating Shareholder Returns: Management’s focused asset rationalization (such as consolidating film production from Gunma to Saitama) combined with aggressive capital return policies—reflected in a 5-year dividend CAGR of 31.40% (3.5% yield), a surge to ¥76.0/share in FY2026, and active multi-billion yen share repurchases—provides strong downside support and structural ROE expansion.

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• It would appear that our scenario in terms of a U.S.-Iran deal remains intact, i.e. “we will believe it when we see it.”    
• President Trump has apparently rejected Iran’s “seven day” timeline for what essentially appears to be an effective reiteration of the original MOU, strongly supported  by the IRGC.              
• President Trump also suggested, as anticipated, that a “re-escalation” of military strikes is possible, but his timeline, at least at this point, is after the midterms, but we shall see.             

• Auric Mining Limited (ASX:AWJ) is a junior gold producer and developer that owns a portfolio of gold assets around the Kalgoorlie and Norseman regions of Western Australia (WA).
• It has made two key acquisitions in the Union Jack project (adds ounce) and purchased second-hand processing equipment and infrastructure (locks in costs and timelines).
• Following the acquisitions, AWJ has proforma net cash of ~$30m as of September 2026, which we think continues to support further exploration, tolling opportunities, asset acquisitions, and still potentially provide a material contribution towards funding Burbanks.

• Structural Conversion Unlocks Sub-Scale Assets: Converting Permian Basin Royalty Trust’s legacy Waddell Ranch Net Profits Interest (NPI) to a cost-free ~15% effective royalty interest directly addresses the recurring “excess cost positions” that led to zero payouts from that asset in recent quarters (including June, July, August, and September 2026).
• Extreme Operator Concentration as a Strategic Double-Edged Sword: The combined platform’s 91% operational concentration with Blackbeard Operating (BBO) ensures unparalleled alignment on development pace and surface access. However, it subjects New PBT to substantial counterparty risk and leaves its capital expenditure cycle entirely captive to a single private equity-backed operator’s priorities.
• Valuation and Capital Allocation Pivot: The transaction establishes a pro forma C-corporation (Up-C structure) valued at $2.2 billion with $154.5 million in pro forma annualized Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA. By shifting from a pass-through trust model to a corporate structure, New PBT can selectively retain cash to pursue bolt-on acreage acquisitions at target hurdle rates of 15% to 20% IRR, breaking the traditional trust reinvestment bottleneck.