Energy & Materials Sector

• Meteoric Resources Nl (MEI AU) owns Brazil’s Caldeira ionic clay project. It has agreed a scheme with Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) at 0.0207 LYC shares per share, implying A$0.286.
• The offer looks attractive. It values Meteoric at a premium to its closest listed peer, Viridis Mining and Minerals Lt (VMM AU), and is above historical exchange ratios.
• The vote looks low risk. No disinterested holder has a blocking stake, substantial shareholder Tolga Kumova supports the scheme, and the small retail base makes the headcount test low risk.

• After Lynas (LYC AU) tapped the market last year for $825mn, it was widely expected it had Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM AU) or Meteoric Resources (MEI AU) in mind. 
• As discussed in Meteoric Resources (MEI AU) Taps Market, As Washington Also Targets Brazil’s Rare Earths, Meteoric, one of a handful of Aussie-listed-plays developing Brazilian rare-earths, also tapped the market. 
• Now Lynas has made an all-scrip offer for Meteoric. Unanimous board support, plus largest shareholder. Lynas will also extend an interim loan facility. Possible implementation in March 2027. Clean deal.

• Northern Star Resources (NST AU) rejected the unsolicited, non-binding takeover proposal from Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ) as opportunistic and inadequate, but sweetened or hostile follow-up bids are expected.
• What happens next may influence Northern Star Resources price depending on which scenario play out (there are 5 scenarios, check our MARKET CONTEXT paragraph for details).
• Stock sentiment is neutral-to-bullish short-term, driven by potential M&A floor/sweetened bids from Gold Fields and elevated gold prices, our model sees potential upside from here.

• Sustained peak margins in 2025/2026 are cyclical, not structural: The 2026 oil price volatility and the onset of the 2% ReFuelEU Aviation mandate in 2025 have pushed Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) prices to over $2,600 per ton, but the industry remains highly cyclical. Historical oversupply in 2024 halved Neste’s margins, indicating that EcoCeres must be valued on a mid-cycle valuation framework rather than its current windfall earnings.
• EcoCeres holds a unique yield and feedstock flexibility advantage: Under CEO Matti Lievonen (former Neste CEO), EcoCeres has optimized its proprietary Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) technology to achieve an 85% total product yield and process low-grade Palm Oil Mill Effluent (POME) at its new Pasir Gudang, Johor facility. This offsets the impact of the elimination of China’s 13% export tax rebate on raw Used Cooking Oil (UCO).
• Johor expansion is the strategic bridge to a $5 billion IPO valuation: The 420,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) Johor plant, commissioned in October 2025 at a cost of $500 million, allows EcoCeres to bypass EU anti-dumping duties on Chinese HVO. This capacity doubling serves as the financial foundation for its targeted $1 billion Hong Kong IPO by the end of 2026.

• H.B. Fuller Company has suddenly found itself at the center of an unusually revealing valuation debate.
• Activist investor Ancora Holdings has increased its proposal for the company’s Building Adhesive Solutions, or BAS, business to between $1.2 billion and $1.4 billion in cash after an earlier offer was rejected.
• The headline number is striking because BAS represents only about 20% of H.B. Fuller’s consolidated revenue, yet the revised proposal equates to roughly half of the company’s equity value.

• Putailai, a lithium-ion battery materials and equipment supplier, is seeking an A+H listing. CICC is the sole sponsor.
• We look at the company’s core segments: battery key materials and battery automation equipment.
• We discuss our preliminary thoughts on the company’s valuation based on the A-H premium.

• Structural Financial Precariousness: CitroTech’s commercial ambitions are severely constrained by its balance sheet. As of June 30, 2026, the company carried an accumulated deficit of $123.3 million against a cash balance of just $2.5 million, forcing a going-concern warning and a highly dilutive $7.0 million proposed S-1 equity offering on September 28, 2026.
• The HexiTech JV is the Only Viable Scaling Pathway: The 50/50 joint venture with Hexion (HexiTech LLC) shifts the heavy capex of chemical manufacturing to Hexion’s existing footprint. However, CitroTech’s financial participation is entirely dependent on a $6.0 million Hexion loan facility to fund its capital contributions, meaning Hexion holds immense structural leverage.
• Moat is Regulatory and Actuarial, Not Patent-Based: CitroTech’s 31 issued patents are chemically vulnerable to workarounds due to their organic, citric-acid-based nature. The true barrier to entry is the 12-to-18-month qualification cycle required for building code certifications (such as the DrJ TER 2504-101) and the developing actuarial models of major insurance carriers.

• News that the U.S. is sending another aircraft carrier to the Gulf plus renewed tanker attacks provides support for our thesis, though the carrier move is a “rotation.”    
• Nonetheless, the carrier rotation in tandem with the tanker attacks do not serve as a foundation for building mutual trust, as the “proposals” intended.
• While none of this guarantees a renewal of major military action, at the least it does not negate our previously discussed fourth quarter scenario

• What you need to know: • Mayfair Gold signed an engagement letter and a non-binding term sheet with Macquarie Bank for a proposed $300M project financing facility, with a $25M early drawdown tranche at closing.
• • The facility comes at CORRA + 4.75% per annum, lowering to CORRA + 4.25% after project completion.
• Also announced was a $10M equity investment by Macquarie at $4.26/share (10% premium to the 5-day VWAP).

• Crude oil futures pared early losses on Thursday as geopolitical tensions and the crunch on refined products offset the bounce in supplies from the Middle East.
• Front-month Dec26 ICE  Brent futures were 4.6% higher at $ 102.49/b (2054 BST), while Nov26 NYMEX  WTI was at $93.14/b , up 3% versus Wednesday’s settle.
• Oil prices rebounded on reports that China would implement a ban on refined product exports, adding to Russia’s suspension on fuel exports and the US weighing up its own diesel ban.

• For September 2026, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$26bn.
• The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~46%; and a year-to-date average of ~45%.
• The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.

• Corteva (CTVA) to complete the spin-off of its Seed business as Vylor (VYLR) on October 1, 2026. 1:1 distribution, tax-free, regular way trading of both begins the same day.
• Our SOTP fair value is $80.00/share. Vylor at $62.00 (15.0x FY27E EBITDA) and New Corteva at $18.00 (9.0x FY27E EBITDA).
• We prefer Vylor given it is larger, higher-margin, faster growing, with scarcity value and licensing upside. New Corteva is a quality franchise but more cyclical and carrying legacy liabilities.

• Global Lithium Resources (GL1) signed a definitive agreement to be acquired by Titan Lithium for A$1.15/share.
• Titan Lithium provided a credit facility of up to A$120m to advance Manna mine development during acquisition.
• Foreign Investment Review Board approval is a hurdle due to potential ties between Titan Lithium and Chinese entities.

• The U.S. has apparently, via mediators, sent its own seven-day “trust building” proposal to Tehran which suggests it involves the issue of “sequencing.”   
• That is, Iran wants the U.S. to end its blockade and release financial assets first, with Iran then “opening” the Strait of Hormuz at the end of the seven days.                                         
• We are speculating that the U.S. wants Iran to “open” the Strait first, and then talk about the blockade and financial assets, to be followed by the nuclear issues.           

• Shandong Linuo Pharmaceutical Packaging Co.,Ltd. is an established Chinese provider of borosilicate technical glass, specializing in pharmaceutical glass packaging and household heat-resistant glass.
• The company ranked ninth in China’s pharmaceutical glass packaging market and first in China’s household heat-resistant glass market by sales revenue in 2025.
• The company reported a decrease in profit for FY2025 and negative net cash from operating activities for FY2025 and H1 2026.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• A rare pure-play listing. EcoCeres, a Bain-backed Hong Kong producer of sustainable aviation fuel, targets a ~US$1bn IPO by end-2026, in a market created by law.
• It lists near a margin peak. The 2026 oil shock inflated SAF profits; in 2024, oversupply more than halved Neste’s margins. Value it on mid-cycle earnings, not the windfall.
• Price discipline matters. Law-mandated green sectors (solar, wind, renewable fuels) trade at 6–12x EV/EBITDA. The reported US$5bn valuation implies ~14x. Engage below US$3.5bn; pass above US$5bn.

• On 18 September, Nativo announced that it had signed a binding letter of intent with a Bermuda-based multi-asset precious metal mining company (Chancery Royalty Limited) for $3.5m worth of project finance and an equity subscription worth an aggregate £0.6m.
• The $3.5m worth of project finance will be exclusively applied to Phase One of Nativo’s ‘La Patona’ gold ore processing plant in Peru, and it is designed to cover all remaining construction and commissioning costs.
• The £0.6m of equity enables Nativo to start work immediately, but it can be applied to other aspects of the business. 

• The Vesuvius Proposal represents an Operational Dream but a Financial and Regulatory Nightmare: Highly complementary product sets (Vesuvius’s flow control/foundry and RHI’s basic refractories) but the heavily debt-funded proposal of £1.37 billion (at 551 pence per share) would push RHIM’s leverage well above its comfort zone and covenants during a cyclical low.
• Antitrust Blockades in India and Europe are Inevitable: India’s Competition Commission (CCI) and the European Commission will demand heavy structural divestments in continuous casting flow control (slide gates/stoppers) and unshaped monolithics, severely eroding the targeted €80 million to €100 million in potential purchasing and SG&A synergies.
• Transition to Gustavo Franco Signals a Structural Shift to Capital Discipline: With Stefan Borgas retiring on November 1, 2026, Franco’s background in the high-margin, low-cost Latin American mining operations suggests a pivot toward conserving cash, completing the integration of the €391 million Resco acquisition, and optimizing the existing plant network over purely dilutive megadeals.

• The BASF Takeover Approach Valuation Gap: Evonik’s recent rejection of BASF’s €22.15 per share (voluntary public takeover offer valuing the equity at €10.3 billion and enterprise value at €14.2 billion) as “too low” highlights a massive valuation mismatch. An all-cash offer of €25.00 to €27.00 per share is the realistic threshold required to clear both the Evonik board and the RAG-Stiftung.
• RAG-Stiftung’s Dividend Pivot and Liquid Cash Demands: RAG-Stiftung’s 43.8% controlling stake is highly sensitive to yield due to its €20 billion portfolio mandate to fund German hard-coal mining “eternity liabilities” (Ewigkeitslasten). The foundation’s willingness to accept equity in a transaction is near-zero; it requires cash or extremely high-yielding liquid paper to replace the cash flow lost from Evonik’s recent dividend cut to a 40% to 60% adjusted net income payout model (which yielded a transitional €1.00 per share in June 2026).
• Prohibitive Antitrust Remediation Risks: A combination faces substantial European Commission scrutiny. To preserve the economic rationale of the transaction, BASF must retain Evonik’s high-margin Specialty Additives (surfactants and polyurethane catalysts) and Alkoxides businesses. However, mandatory divestitures of overlapping European alkoxides and coatings additive lines would destroy up to 30% of the target’s high-margin EBITDA, leaving a highly commoditized and cyclically exposed core.

• Evonik rejected BASF’s reported €22.15 approach; €24–27 looks achievable without stretching the valuation, with €25 our base case.
• At €25, BASF pays 7.17x FY26E EBITDA, falling to 6.06x after €400m synergies, while RAG’s 43.8% stake is worth €5.10bn.
• We derive a €23.00 target price from our scenario analysis, 15.8% above €19.84, with a 70% probability assigned to a transaction.

• RHI Magnesita N.V. has proposed a cash-and-shares takeover bid for UK-based Vesuvius plc, valuing the company at approximately GBP 1.4 billion.
• The combination could bring together RHI Magnesita’s refractory leadership with Vesuvius’ molten metal flow control technologies, creating a broader industrial solutions platform.
• Indian subsidiaries could gain access to wider technology, product capabilities and customer solutions, while investors need to track integration risks and competitive overlap.

• Refinancing risk falls: YPF’s enlarged US$1.0bn tender can retire all targeted 2027s and roughly half the 2029s, materially reducing near-term maturities.
• Credit impact stays manageable: The transaction adds only modest leverage, while improved market access and a cleaner maturity profile strengthen liquidity ahead of the 2027 election.
• Value is selective: We remain Neutral on YPF as curve dislocations create bond-specific opportunity, but not enough broad valuation support to justify an issuer-level upgrade.

• Nucor’s management expects a 16% QoQ increase in EPS, with higher pricing and stronger volumes supporting earnings growth across both key segments.
• Iowa’s planned steel capacity could reshape the longer-term supply balance, though the market has several years to absorb the additional tons before production ramps.
• Elevated startup costs, raw material pressures, and Q4 seasonality emerge as key headwinds to monitor through the remainder of 2026.

• Bullish call positioning defined the week of September 21.
• Extreme low put-call ratios hit several names across autos, utilities, and financials.
• Yet bearish hedging surged in equal measure elsewhere – earnings-linked put buying and sector-level stress signals kept the week far from one-directional.

• Northern Star’s relative underperformance has attracted Gold Fields, one of the world’s largest gold producers, in what brokers characterise as a strategically appealing combination.
• Northern Star shares have been de-rated in 2026 Weaker share price attracts unwelcome interest from Gold Fields Northern Star’s rejection belies the potential for a global gold producing behemoth

• Crude oil futures largely surrendered early gains on Monday after reports that talks between the US and Iran were set to continue, focusing on Iran’s nuclear programme.
• Nov26 ICE  Brent futures were 1.3% higher at  $105.72/b (2036 BST), while Nov26 NYMEX  WTI was at $92.99/b , up 0.6% versus Friday’s settle.
• According to Axios and other media outlets, President Trump could be willing to trade Iranian sanctions relief and release some Iranian frozen funds in return for concrete steps from Tehran regarding its enrichment plans.

• Record Revenue and Robust Demand Profile: PA Resources Bhd (PARB MK) achieved record full-year FY2026 revenue of RM648.64 million (+19.9% YoY) and net profit of RM31.03 million (+10.8% YoY), capped by a record 4Q26 quarterly net profit of RM18.00 million on RM204.83 million in revenue, driven by strong extrusion delivery volumes and elevated operational throughput.
• Transformational First Solar Renewal and Capacity Expansion: The group secured its largest contract in corporate history—an 18-month supply agreement renewal with First Solar valued at US$322.17 million (~RM1.31 billion) effective July 2026—while actively executing a RM100 million capacity expansion that will more than double extrusion capacity from 3,500 tonnes to 8,500 tonnes per month by 2H FY2027.
• Compelling Risk-Reward with Defensive Income: Trading at ~10.1x FY2026 P/E and offering a dependable 4.65% dividend yield (RM0.010 DPS; ~48.5% payout ratio), supported by RM255.45 million in newly secured banking credit lines, PARB offers an attractive entry point into the global solar photovoltaic supply chain and downstream industrial manufacturing.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• The Gas Supply Agreement first signed in July 2024 with Genesis now covers all gas produced by NZE and L&M Energy.
• The agreement has no take-or-pay obligations for NZE or L&M.
• We understand the gas will be sold at a fixed price, but the terms are confidential.

• The MV Junior Gold Miners index tracks the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. Lots of AUM on the ETF means big impact sometimes.
• There will be no index changes for the December 2026 rebal event. However, we currently expect a one-way flow of US$43mm for December 2026 due to capping/re-capping.
• The Vault-Genesis deal is expected to complete before the December 2026 rebal. Vault faces over two months of ADV to sell and Genesis over a month to buy, both US$1bn+.

• The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large- and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. It underlies the biggest listed sector ETF (GDX).
• We currently don’t see any index changes for the December 2026 rebal. The potential ADDs would need to significantly outperform to trigger an index change.
• The Vault-Genesis deal is likely to complete before the December 2026 rebal and is expected to trigger passive flows in MV Global Gold and MV Junior Gold Miners indices.

• Northern Star Resources (NST AU) rejected Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)‘s proposal (0.3125 shares plus A$7.25 cash, implied A$27.00, 22.1% premium). It cited undervaluation, scrip risk, opportunistic timing and onerous conditions.
• Elliott, the key activist, needs a higher offer. Its return would be modest; NST’s turnaround has barely started; Gold Fields keeps most synergies; and hard exclusivity shuts out rival bidders.
• Gold Fields will likely return at around A$28–30, with more cash and no hard exclusivity. Synergies and past deals support this, but the deal’s size acts as a constraint.

• The SP Select Sector indices are a family of 11 sector-specific indices derived from the SP 500 index based on GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) classifications.
• Intra-Review changes from two M&A deals and a spin-off could trigger Select Sector flows before the December 2026 rebalance.
• We expect one-way flows of ~US$7bn across the Select Sector indices, which should grow as the December 2026 rebalance approaches.

• Structural cost reset, not a coal-price bet.

• The MBJ integrated haul road + barging chain (capex ~US$150 mil) removes third-party trucking on TRA coal and takes ~US$7–8/t out of the annual cost base.

• That is a self-help margin gain that survives a flat coal price.

• Red Avenue New Materials Group (RANMG HK) raised ~US$380m in its Hong Kong IPO.
• It operates across rubber additives for tyres and other chemical products, electronic materials, and fully biodegradable materials.
• In this note, we look at its past performance, valuation, and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• Aica-Kogyo of Japan now holds 40% of Stylam and sits as joint-promoter, after one branch of the founding Gupta family exited entirely and another stayed on to run the company.
• A boardroom rift that had capped Stylam’s valuation multiple is now resolved, and HDFC Securities has re-rated the stock on governance clarity alone, before counting any Aica synergy.
• The real story is not the stake sale, it’s the asymmetry: who left, who stayed, and what that split implies for capital allocation, exports and the next capacity cycle.

• Asia’s spare capacity is filling gaps left by tighter US, European and Middle East supply, but recovering demand and fourth-quarter maintenance will test its limits.

• Traditional suppliers are losing export availability, giving Asian producers more room to meet requirements in the US, Europe and other overseas markets.

• The response spans the region, with South Korea, Taiwan, India, Singapore and China all sending cargoes beyond Asia.

• Copper delivered 36% of divisional EBITDA in H1 FY26 (US$5.7bn, 66% margin), up from 6.5% in H2 FY23, as Oyu Tolgoi underground ramps up.
• Iron ore’s share has halved to 43%, with EBITDA/t down 65% from its peak; capex is rotating to Simandou, the Pilbara replacement, lithium, and aluminum, while copper enters harvest.
• Valuation at 13.7x FY26e P/E, 7.3x EV/EBITDA and 5.1% yield. We analyze the Rio Tinto (RIO US) pivot 

• New York awarded 1.7 GW of renewable and energy storage projects backed by more than US$3.7 billion in investment, targeting operation by 2030.
• Meanwhile, the Trump administration is preparing to relax federal fuel economy standards, lowering the 2031 target to 34.5 mpg and rolling back EV-supportive policies, drawing criticism from environmental groups.
• The EPA also proposed repealing Biden-era power plant rules that required carbon capture or closure, a move advocates say could raise emissions, notably in Georgia. 

• Northern Star Resources (NST AU) announced two major downgrades this year, hampered by old hardware, leading to a ~19% single-day share price fall on the second cut.
• NST made some concessions, mollifying activist Elliott (and the market). For now. I discussed this situation in Stay The Course As Northern Star (NST AU) Extends Olive Branch To Elliott.
• NST announced this morning that three days prior my note it received, and (has now) summarily rejected a cash/scrip Offer from Gold Fields (GFI SJ), or a A$27/share implied price.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: In Japan, currently three pair trade opportunities persist across three sectors.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• The copper price has stagnated for four months, struggling to maintain new highs, and recently slumped on reports that the U.S. maybe wavering on implementing more tariffs of the metal
• BHP’s price implies very aggressive copper price targets which we view as insufficiently incorporating the risks of a weakening AI-boom, low to no additional US tariffs and broader economic cyclicality 
• There is still significant downside not just to our valuation, which sits at a pre-AI-boom-inventory-imbalance-driven-parabolic-copper-surge level, but even to a moderate midpoint between our conservative outlook and the market price 

• Market Leadership in Specialty Compounding & Functional Films: RIKEN TECHNOS CORPORATION (4220 JP) holds an entrenched global niche position in synthetic resin compounding (polyvinyl chloride and thermoplastic elastomers) and specialty extruded/calendered films, serving high-specification transportation, healthcare, electronics, and construction end-markets with manufacturing operations across Japan, the United States, Thailand, and Indonesia.
• Operational Mix Shift Driving Superior Cash Conversion: Despite moderate top-line volume growth (3-year revenue CAGR of 2.08%), product mix optimization toward high-margin elastomer compounds and precision films has expanded gross margins to 22.43% and EBITDA margins to 15.09% in recent quarters, underpinning a 3-year EPS CAGR of 28.70% and Free Cash Flow of ¥8.56B in FY2026.
• Proactive Capital Allocation and Accelerating Shareholder Returns: Management’s focused asset rationalization (such as consolidating film production from Gunma to Saitama) combined with aggressive capital return policies—reflected in a 5-year dividend CAGR of 31.40% (3.5% yield), a surge to ¥76.0/share in FY2026, and active multi-billion yen share repurchases—provides strong downside support and structural ROE expansion.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• It would appear that our scenario in terms of a U.S.-Iran deal remains intact, i.e. “we will believe it when we see it.”    
• President Trump has apparently rejected Iran’s “seven day” timeline for what essentially appears to be an effective reiteration of the original MOU, strongly supported  by the IRGC.              
• President Trump also suggested, as anticipated, that a “re-escalation” of military strikes is possible, but his timeline, at least at this point, is after the midterms, but we shall see.             

• Auric Mining Limited (ASX:AWJ) is a junior gold producer and developer that owns a portfolio of gold assets around the Kalgoorlie and Norseman regions of Western Australia (WA).
• It has made two key acquisitions in the Union Jack project (adds ounce) and purchased second-hand processing equipment and infrastructure (locks in costs and timelines).
• Following the acquisitions, AWJ has proforma net cash of ~$30m as of September 2026, which we think continues to support further exploration, tolling opportunities, asset acquisitions, and still potentially provide a material contribution towards funding Burbanks.

• Structural Conversion Unlocks Sub-Scale Assets: Converting Permian Basin Royalty Trust’s legacy Waddell Ranch Net Profits Interest (NPI) to a cost-free ~15% effective royalty interest directly addresses the recurring “excess cost positions” that led to zero payouts from that asset in recent quarters (including June, July, August, and September 2026).
• Extreme Operator Concentration as a Strategic Double-Edged Sword: The combined platform’s 91% operational concentration with Blackbeard Operating (BBO) ensures unparalleled alignment on development pace and surface access. However, it subjects New PBT to substantial counterparty risk and leaves its capital expenditure cycle entirely captive to a single private equity-backed operator’s priorities.
• Valuation and Capital Allocation Pivot: The transaction establishes a pro forma C-corporation (Up-C structure) valued at $2.2 billion with $154.5 million in pro forma annualized Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA. By shifting from a pass-through trust model to a corporate structure, New PBT can selectively retain cash to pursue bolt-on acreage acquisitions at target hurdle rates of 15% to 20% IRR, breaking the traditional trust reinvestment bottleneck.

• Resonac Holdings (4004 JP) is worth more than ¥200/share over the medium-term. But expect this Crasus Chemical (646A JP) spinoff to create trading and accumulation opportunities in the near future.
• Tokio Marine (8766 JP) reportedly identified Suncorp (SUN AU). It’s a clean play after selling Suncorp Bank to ANZ. IAG (IAG AU) is now cleaner after settling the Greensill litigation.
• Legend Holdings (3396 HK) remains deeply valued. It is now seeking to offload its 90% stake in Banque Internationale à Luxembourg for ~HK$23bn. 

• Devon Energy has suddenly found itself at the center of one of the more intriguing takeover debates in the U.S. energy sector.
• Activist investor Toms Capital, which says it is among Devon’s five largest shareholders, is pushing the oil and gas producer to evaluate strategic alternatives, including a potential sale of the entire company.
• The campaign comes only months after Devon completed its roughly $25 billion combination with Coterra Energy, creating a much larger producer with a particularly significant position in the Delaware Basin.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently eight pairtrade opportunities persist across three markets and five sectors.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• PBT Land and Minerals, Inc. is a newly-formed Texas corporation acquiring assets and liabilities from Permian Basin Royalty Trust, Blackbeard Holdings, and Greybeard Energy.
• USLG had 13,917 Mboe total estimated proved reserves as of December 31, 2025, with 68% classified as proved developed reserves.
• The company expects to generate predictable and consistent cash flow from its diversified resource portfolio, though the Business Combination may not be completed.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• RPM International is extending its acquisition-led expansion strategy with an agreement to acquire Italy-based Volteco S.p.A. for its Tremco Construction Products Group, adding a specialist in below-grade waterproofing solutions to an increasingly broad construction systems portfolio.
• Volteco, headquartered in Ponzano Veneto, generated approximately €28 million of sales in calendar 2025, and the transaction is expected to close during RPM’s second fiscal quarter of 2027.
• The proposed addition comes as RPM enters fiscal 2027 following record fourth-quarter results, with Construction Products Group and Performance Coatings Group leading growth and management emphasizing maintenance, restoration, infrastructure and high-performance buildings.

• We think Pan-United (PanU) is a high-quality, cash-generative play on Singapore’s construction upcycle.

• As the country’s largest ready-mixed concrete supplier, it converts a steady domestic construction pipeline into volume growth, and it has re-rated on rising earnings, a net cash balance sheet and a growing dividend.

• PanU is no longer simply a low growth Singapore construction materials supplier.

• We think BRC Asia Limited (“BRC”) is a structural play on Singapore’s construction sector via its dominant position within the reinforcing steel sub-sector.
• Its highly automated prefabrication facilities deliver critical on-site manpower savings, and its large-scale delivery network creates high barriers to entry.
• Consequently, it generated a resilient net profit margin of 6.1% in FY2025.

• In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX and MDAX indices ahead of the December 2026 index rebal event.
• Currently, we don’t expect any changes in the DAX or MDAX indices, but two MDAX names are close to the border for inclusion in the DAX.
• Only the Fast Entry/Exit rules apply for the December rebalance, so names face stricter requirements to trigger index changes than in March and September, when Regular Entry/Exit rules also apply.

• H1 CY26 revenue reached about Rs. 506 crore, helped by a 35% YoY Q2 surge. The board has also approved a Rs. 56 crore Ankleshwar expansion.
• Growth is broadening beyond legacy wire-enamel demand into high-voltage resins, tapes, electronics materials, CTC applications, e-mobility and BESS-related thermal-management chemistries.
• The business now has more visible reinvestment avenues, but a market value above Rs. 10,000 crore already discounts a material portion of future execution. 

• Technical Lock-In Drives High Moats: ELANTAS Beck India holds a dominant market position with upwards of 50% market share in primary insulation (wire enamels) and 33% in secondary insulation (varnishes). This is protected by rigorous, 12-to-24-month qualification cycles with global end-OEMs (Siemens, ABB, Bosch), creating high customer switching costs.
• Geographic Export Caps Limit Scale: As a 75%-owned subsidiary of Germany’s ALTANA AG, the Indian listed entity is structurally restricted by its parent to serve only the South Asian market. Exports are capped at approximately 2% of revenues to prevent channel conflict with sister subsidiaries globally.
• Supply Chain De-risking via Localization: Over the past decade, the company has systematically localized its raw material sourcing, reducing its import dependency from 50% to roughly 32% of raw materials consumed. This strategy protects operating margins from currency fluctuations and global logistics bottlenecks.

• Thermodynamic Superiority vs. Commercial Captivity: Thermochemical water splitting, such as NewHydrogen’s ThermoLoop®, bypasses the costly electricity-to-heat-to-electricity loop of conventional electrolysis, presenting a theoretical shortcut to sub-$2.00 per kilogram clean hydrogen. However, its economic viability is completely captive to the commercial scale-up of high-temperature small modular reactors (SMRs) which remain in early testing and are years away from industrial deployment.
• Capital Disconnect & Going-Concern Risks: There is a severe mismatch between NewHydrogen’s capital resources—evidenced by a net loss of $2.85 million and a cash balance of $1.44 million at the end of 2025, alongside a highly dilutive $3 million GHS Investments equity facility—and the estimated $15 million to $20 million minimum required to develop and operate an automated engineering test unit and subsequent pilot plant.
• Key-Person and Management Deficiencies: While the technical core of the company is anchored by CTO Dr. Eric McFarland and his laboratory at UC Santa Barbara, the operational leadership is led by a CEO with a background in biopharmaceutical sales. This creates significant execution risks as the company attempts to transition from academic laboratory validation into complex, high-temperature chemical engineering.

• ELANTAS Beck India Limited (EBECK IN) is the market leader in India’s electrical insulation materials and engineering resins sector, controlling a dominant market share in wire enamels and impregnating resins backed by the proprietary R&D and global formulation expertise of its parent entity, ALTANA Group.
• Financial performance has inflected sharply, highlighted by an outstanding H1 CY26 revenue expansion (+46% YoY) and EBITDA margins expanding to 28.8% in Q2 CY26, driven by high-voltage resin localization, synergy realization from the Von Roll India asset acquisition, and rising penetration in e-mobility and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS).
• While long-term secular tailwinds from domestic power grid modernization, industrial electrification, and EV adoption remain robust, the current valuation (~INR 10,900+ Cr market capitalization) prices in aggressive multi-year earnings execution, leaving narrow margin of safety against potential greenfield execution delays at the Bharuch project.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• What you need to know: • ESGold has completed ~2,030m of its 5,000m drill program and has consistently observed sulphide-bearing intervals.
• • ~400 core samples are pending assays to determine the grade of the promising core samples.
• • In addition, an expanded ANT survey and updated 3D model has outlined property-wide opportunities, and commissioning continues to progress.

• On August 25, 2026, Daiichi Kigenso Kagaku Kogyo Co., Ltd. (hereafter, the Company), the leading manufacturer of zirconium (chemical symbol: Zr; atomic number 40) compounds, announced in a press release that it had established domestic manufacturing technology for hafnium (chemical symbol: Hf; atomic number 72), one of the critical rare metals.
• The Company plans to begin supplying samples by the end of 2026 and aims to start mass production in 2028.
• Following basic research conducted with the technical cooperation of its joint research partner Emulsion Flow Technologies Ltd., the Company has established domestic technologies for hafnium production and sample prototyping.

• Unprecedented tight copper concentrate supply has driven 2026 annual benchmark TC/RCs to $0/t and spot rates deeply negative (reaching -$132/t to -$173/t in mid-2026), shifting immense margin from smelters to miners. Consequently, Guangdong Rising Mineral-Rich Mountain Copper (Dabaoshan) achieved a copper concentrate gross margin of 65.3% in H1 2026.
• The company’s profitability is heavily double-leveraged to both copper and sulfur. Its sulfur concentrate gross margin climbed to 74.6% in H1 2026 due to a global sulfur supply crunch driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions and explosive domestic demand from the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery value chain.
• Dabaoshan remains a highly vulnerable single-mine operation with a remaining mine life of only 13 years. Reinvestment and external M&A are severely constrained by the Guangdong State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), which prioritizes production volumes and stable dividend payouts over return on invested capital (ROIC) maximization.

• NewHydrogen, Inc. develops clean energy technologies, focusing on thermochemical green hydrogen production to reduce costs and lead the green hydrogen economy.
• The company is developing thermochemical green hydrogen technology to lower production costs, targeting a green hydrogen economy valued at $12 trillion.
• The company reported a net loss of $(1,740,818) and an accumulated deficit of $(182,530,308), with substantial doubt about its going concern ability.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• Nufarm’s guidance miss was largely due to two unplanned outages, now resolved, while record growth in Seeds more than offsets headwinds for Crop Protection.
• Nufarm warns of a miss to FY26 earnings guidance Crop Protection faces headwinds, but two unplanned outages will not be repeated Seed Technologies’ growth greater than forecast, with more likely to follow-through Company is organising presentations to analysts and investors on Monday & Tuesday

• 1H26 production of 5,650 boe/d — comprising 4,583 boe/d in Vietnam and 1,067 bbl/d in Egypt — had been disclosed previously.
• TGT and CNV contributed 3,551 boe/d and 1,032 boe/d respectively.
• The end-June cash balance had likewise been previously disclosed.

• Context: The Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) vs. ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlight: Going long ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP) and short Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) targets a 5% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Guangdong Rising Mineral-Rich Mountain Copper Co., Ltd. is a leading polymetallic mining company operating the Dabaoshan Mine and seeking a listing to fund future growth strategies.
• The company ranked first in South China for copper concentrate production and third nationally for sulphur concentrate in 2025, with a 56.2% net profit CAGR.
• The company reported RMB2,193,250 thousand in revenue for FY2025 and RMB848,876 thousand in net profit for FY2025.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• LVG’s weathered-ore metallurgical testwork identified attrition scrubbing plus desliming as the preferred treatment route for the clay-rich, near-surface material within Area C at its Imwelo Gold Project.
• The route lifted 24-hour gold extraction from agitated-leach testing from 49.99% on as-received material to 84.54%, with bottle-roll recovery of up to 88.15% on the pretreated fraction.
• Pretreatment also improved gravity recovery (12.78% to 21.25%) and slurry handling, and complements the March 2026 program that returned ~96-97% recoveries on deeper transitional and fresh material.

• LIO released assays from 4,370m of underground drilling in Zone 5, the main production area at Tuvatu, where 30 of 34 holes hit high-grade gold.
• Hole TGC-0532 returned 82.28 g/t Au over 4.6m (incl.
• 302.15 g/t over 0.4m), one of eight intercepts above 100 g/t Au. • Most intercepts sit within 25m of existing workings, and management expects them to feed the mine plan within six months, with some already being developed for stoping.

• MTT acquired 100% of three Santa Cruz projects for US$25K and 1.25M shares, eliminating US$290K in option payments and a 2% NSR on each.
• MTT now holds six 100%-owned projects (~79,000ha) in Argentina and is evaluating options to surface value, including a potential spin-out.
• The Company closed an upsized $3.75M private placement, with participation from its largest shareholder, Michael Gentile.

• The designer, manufacturer and supplier of advanced testing, simulation and measurement products and services to the global transport market provided a trading update in respect of the year ended 31 August.
• Further to the update issued on 28 July, the Board confirmed that the trading in the remainder of the final quarter was as anticipated and consequently performance for FY2026 is expected to be in line with the guidance provided at the time and current market expectations.
• Revenue for the year from continuing operations is expected to be £91.6m and adjusted operating margin is in line with the Group’s medium-term target of 20%. 

• TITI reported assay results for twelve Packsack holes at the Madre Sierra Project with every hole intersecting mineralized structures.
• Hole PKS-MSN-26-07 delivered the strongest intercepts, returning 479 g/t AgEq over 1.00m & 578 g/t AgEq over 0.65m
• Results expand high-grade mineralization across multiple vein structures and will be included in the maiden MRE on track for mid-2027.

• Mineral Resources (MIN AU)-backed Aussie lithium play Global Lithium Resources Ltd (GL1 AU), has entered into a Scheme with UAE-backed Titan Mining.
• Titan is offering $1.15/share, in cash, for each GL1 share, or a 73% premium to undisturbed. Titan is also providing GL1 with a loan to develop the Manna Lithium Project.
• GL1 directors, holding 12.5%, are supportive. The Scheme meeting is expected to be held in December. The Scheme requires FIRB & ACCC signing off. Expect scrutiny.

• In this edition: • Adyen | to nominate Niclas Neglen as Chief Financial Officer • ASM International | launches breakthrough Flowable Carbon technology • Heineken | loses UEFA Club Competitions Sponsorship to AB Inbev • InPost | offer declared unconditional • Shell | completes Gulf of America asset sale • Arcadis | WSP Global withdraws proposed offer for the company

Highlights

• El Niño expected to strengthen, with nearly 100% persistence probability through February 2027

• Indonesia wildfire emissions reached 19.7 million metric tons CO2 in early September

• August 2026 was the hottest August globally, intensifying rubber supply concerns

• 2Q26 production from the non-operated portfolio was 914 boe/d (69% oil).
• Including our NGL estimates, this came in ~100 boe/d ahead of our forecast.
• We forecast a broadly similar production level in 3Q26.

• Weatherford International reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.105 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $223 million at a 20.2% margin, and adjusted free cash flow of $139 million.
• Free cash flow conversion reached 62.3% of adjusted EBITDA despite geopolitical disruption in the Middle East, weaker activity in Indonesia, pricing pressure, and a labor strike in Norway.
• Middle East operations were affected by project suspensions, delays, and logistical constraints.

• A capital cycle story with minimal supply coming online but booming demand in the pipeline
• Consolidation in the industry leading to better pricing not more supply
• COSL’s recent results show a marked improvement in the international business masked by FX translation losses

• Kinder Morgan’s second quarter of 2026 results demonstrated continued operational strength and financial performance above both prior year and internal forecasts.
• Adjusted EBITDA increased by 12%, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 32% compared to the second quarter of 2025, with every business segment contributing positively to the quarter’s results.
• The company has raised its full-year guidance, now anticipating adjusted EBITDA at least 5% above the 2026 budget and adjusted EPS at least 12% higher than initially projected.

• Packaging Corporation of America reported second-quarter 2026 net income of $192 million, or $2.15 per share.
• Excluding special items, net income was $210 million, or $2.35 per share, compared with $224 million, or $2.48 per share, a year earlier.
• Net sales increased to $2.5 billion from $2.2 billion, while adjusted EBITDA rose to $486 million from $451 million.

• Crude oil futures rebounded strongly on Wednesday to halt the week-long losing streak, with investors unconvinced that the US and Iran are nearing a deal to end the war.
• Nov26 ICE Brent futures were 4.5% higher at  $103.69/b (2038 BST), halting a run of five straight losses, while Nov26 NYMEX WTI was at $92.73/b , up 2.4% versus Tuesday’s settle.
• The higher prices came after Tuesday’s high-level talks led by White House Middle East envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi headed the Iranian delegation.

• As we anticipated, Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian’s speech before the U.N. General Assembly was not “benevolent” by any stretch of the imagination. Oil prices rebounded in response.                 
• The earlier oil price weakness appeared to reflect optimism regarding the “sideline” meetings between Iranian delegates and Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.                                       
• With respect, however, Iran has previously indicated they would not negotiate seriously with the two who Tehran characterizes as “mere real estate developers.”          

• Global Lithium Resources Ltd (GL1 AU) entered into a scheme implementation deed with Titan at A$1.15 per share, a 72.9% premium to the undisturbed price. 
• Regulatory approvals (FIRB, ACCC) are low-risk. Barring Mineral Resources (MIN AU), there is little doubt that the remaining substantial shareholders will be supportive.  
• While MinRes will crystallise a material loss at the offer price, it is unlikely to interfere, as it recently stated that it does not want further exposure to lithium. 

• Indonesian thermal coal prices are trending higher, creating a constructive cyclical backdrop for domestic coal producers: Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) & Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ) 
• Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) combines the lowest valuation with substantial net cash, while Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ)  combines stronger observed cash conversion with deeper logistics and resource-duration advantages.
• We test, through a forensic examination of business economics and a value-investing lens, which company, if either, can offer more than 25% upside from current prices.

• High-margin leverage to gold: FY25 revenue rose 37% to US$7.05bn while production cost per ounce rose 12%, lifting cash margin to US$2,285/oz.
• Organic pipeline extends the profile: Phase X, Curlew and Redbird 2 start in 2028; Great Bear (late 2029) and Lobo-Marte add ~850koz/yr of high-grade ounces to the existing 2 Moz.
• Valuation: 9.4x FY26E P/E and 5.1x EV/EBITDA with FY25 ROCE 29.8%; US$1.9bn net cash

• Schlumberger Limited reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $9 billion, up 3% sequentially as international growth and a North American rebound offset Middle East weakness.
• Middle East revenue declined 13% sequentially to $1.66 billion because of regional conflict and security disruptions, particularly in Iraq.
• Management expects activity to recover gradually, although the pace will vary by country and customer.

• Elevated portside inventories and a fresh WoW increase suggest Golden Week restocking has yet to translate into meaningful inventory drawdowns.
• Options positioning is turning increasingly constructive, with call OI building at strikes 105 and 110. OI PCR of 0.61 reinforces the bullish bias.
• Managed money extended its bearish positioning for a 12th straight week, trimming long exposure by ~4% while increasing short positions by ~3%. 

• Ecolab reported a second quarter characterized by continued organic sales growth and margin stabilization despite challenging commodity cost inflation.
• Adjusted earnings per share increased by 11%, supported by 5% organic sales growth, stable organic gross margins, and productivity gains.
• Pricing actions, including a newly implemented global energy surcharge, contributed to a 4% price increase in the quarter, with expectations for pricing to strengthen to 5-6% in the second half of 2026.

• The strategic repositioning of Dyno Nobel ((DNL)) is the key takeaway from last week’s Investor Day, titled “Beyond FY28 $600m EBIT Ambition”.
• Management signalled its longer-term growth ambitions for the explosives company, laying out not only an upgraded FY28 EBIT target, but also an FY31 EBIT goal of $800m, compared to FY26 EBIT of between $480m-$490m.
• The market was happy to cheer the update, sending the share price up almost 8%, which is impressive given the rally off the late March low of some $2.88 to currently around $4.10. 

• In his speech to the U.N. General Assembly, President Trump stated that a “deal” with Iran could be made after the U.S. midterm elections.                  
• This suggests to us that there remains the possibility of the U.S. launching a major strike, perhaps on Pickaxe Mountain, before the midterms, as we previously discussed.                                       
• Such an attack might satisfy the domestic base and yet allow President Trump to offer some form of “carrot” to Iran after the midterms to achieve his “off ramp.”          

• Crude oil futures dropped for a fourth straight session on Monday, as expectations that Saudi Arabia could soon restore some flows through its damaged East-West Pipeline eased concerns over supply disruptions.
• Nov26 ICE Brent futures were 3.6% lower at  $100.11/b (2119 BST), while Nov26 NYMEX  WTI was at $92.04/b , down 4.2% versus Friday’s settle.
• Brent earlier traded at an intraday low of $98.98/b, dropping below $100/b for the first time in two weeks.

• FY26 delivered the promised step change: shipments rose 83% to 4.4Mt, revenue rose 87% to A$590m, with C1 held at A$73.7/wmt amid peer double-digit inflation.
• Beebyn Hub transition is on schedule, with the owner-operated crusher due in Q2 FY27 and FY27 guidance of 4.7Mt to 5.3Mt reaffirmed.
• FY26 prints 15.0x earnings, 2.9x EV/EBITDA and 3.9% yield, stepping to 9.4x and 1.9x on 06/27e.