Energy & Materials Sector

• A few years ago, Resonac Holdings (4004 JP) announced it would consider spinning off its petrochemicals business.
• This summer it announced it would happen, and on 7 September it got TSE approval for a spinoff 1 October 2026. Shares start trading on 29 September. 
• On Friday, the reference price for listing was announced at ¥200/share. Day 1 will mean significant index flows, and thoughts of what is to come.

• HVM Co., Ltd. (295310 KS) is a premier South Korean advanced vacuum metallurgy manufacturer specializing in high-performance nickel, titanium, and copper superalloys, advanced sputtering targets, and precision specialty metals critical for aerospace, defense, semiconductor, and energy industries.
• The company is undergoing a transformative growth cycle propelled by its tier-1 direct supplier qualification into top-tier global aerospace and space launch supply chains (including SpaceX Starship engine alloy programs), shifting its revenue mix toward high-margin aerospace superalloys (projected at >60% of total sales).
• While revenue expanded strongly from KRW 41.46bn in FY2023 to KRW 66.53bn in FY2025 with an operational turnaround to KRW 12.61bn net profit in FY2025, persistent working capital demands, negative free cash flow (-KRW 24.55bn in FY2025), and quarterly margin volatility highlight operational scaling risks that require disciplined execution.

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• ASX 200 rebalance will be effective on 21 Sep 2026 before market open, with 5 ADDs and 5 DELETEs.
• Four of the five ADDs gained over the bridge window, led by Sunrise Energy Metals at +28.1%. Tuas was the only DELETE to gain.
• Historically, ADDs with a positive bridge were evenly split between first-week gains and losses. DELETEs mostly fell in the first implementation week after either bridge direction.

• Diesel costs are close to the highs seen in April, when the US-Iran war began. If prices stay at these levels, the cost curve will rise by 5- 10 USD/ton.
• Shipping costs have also increased by 30-40%, squeezing miners by a further 8-10 USD/ton over the last year on the 95-100 USD/ton base. 
• We see a scenario in which miners will continue to face downgrades as the supply-demand situation and steel mill profitability remain subdued. 

• There appears to be no letup in the Houthis-Saudi conflict, although as we anticipated, Pakistan and Türkiye are offering “assistance” to Saudi Arabia under the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement.   
• At the same time, there are “rumblings” about a renewed U.S. military campaign against Iran, including a possible strike against Pickaxe Mountain.             
• Nonetheless, at this juncture we would retain our previously delineated trading range for the prompt NMEX crude oil contract of $95.00-$110.00 per barrel.          

• Global copper-mine production declined in early 2026, driven by lower output and disruptions in key producing nations like Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
• Anticipation and fears of aggressive U.S. import tariffs on copper and related metal products prompted traders to aggressively divert and ship refined copper into U.S. (COMEX) warehouses
• We expect stocks to now digest the new-normal 14,000 USD/ton copper price. Check out our recent initiation: Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders 

• Plains All American Pipeline is moving to expand its U.S. crude oil infrastructure footprint through an agreement to acquire Silver Creek Midstream’s Powder River Basin assets for approximately $585 million in cash.
• The transaction would give Plains control of roughly 600 miles of gathering and transmission pipelines in Wyoming, approximately 1.2 million barrels of operational storage and a 49% non-operated interest in the Powder River Gateway Joint Venture.
• The system currently handles about 125,000 barrels of crude oil per day and is supported by approximately 915,000 dedicated acres under long-term agreements and minimum volume commitments, with more than eight years of average contract life remaining.

• NextEra Energy Partners, LP reported first quarter 2025 results that delivered core earnings consistent with prior quarters and management expectations.
• Core earnings demonstrated stability with figures around $110 million to $177 million in recent quarters, and the outlook anticipates acceleration in the second half of 2025 driven by new asset contributions, particularly from Brazil.
• The reported adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was approximately $82 million, slightly below initial forecasts due to the absence of one-time gains present in previous periods.

• Excelerate Energy has suddenly found itself at the center of takeover speculation after traders circulated a Betaville report suggesting that a Western European oil major may have approached the LNG infrastructure company about a possible transaction.
• The chatter arrives after an already strong run for the shares, which have climbed roughly 37% in 2026, making the timing particularly notable.
• Yet the potential strategic appeal goes well beyond recent stock momentum.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• The Boj, the Fed, and the ECB all tightened rates this week – with different outcomes
• Tightening liquidity globally, but still no signs of a major top

• The upcoming $400 million IPO is a 100% Offer for Sale (OFS) by the parent, Torrent Investments, meaning zero fresh capital will enter Torrent Gas Limited (TGL). Future capital expenditure of approximately Rs 5,000 crore will be funded entirely through internal accruals and a robust domestic bank debt consortium.
• Unit economics are highly attractive, with TGL achieving a record EBITDA of Rs 10.80 per standard cubic meter (SCM) in Q1 FY27. CNG savings of 35% to 45% over petrol drive a rapid payback period of 6 to 8 months for commercial operators, positioning mature Geographical Areas (GAs) like Jaipur, Kota, and Moradabad to cross 18% ROCE.
• Marketing exclusivity expiries present minimal operational risk due to TGL’s 25-year infrastructure exclusivity. Potential open-access threats are mitigated by the sheer logistics of third-party pipeline layout and high wheeling tariffs determined by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB).

• Mount Milligan to 2045, and Öksüt to fund Goldfield, Kemess, and Thompson Creek internally, with $451m cash, zero debt, and $1bn liquidity.
• Q2 2026 lifted gold guidance to 260 to 290koz; Türkiye halves Öksüt’s tax rate from 2027, and $200m of buybacks have been authorized.
• At 0.53x P/NAV versus peers at 0.7x, FY26E EV/EBITDA of 6.0x, P/B of 1.95x and derived ROCE of 23.5%.

• A key obstacle to developing Strike Energy’s flagship West Erregulla project has been removed, while the company’s funding position has strengthened.
• Strike Energy’s West Erregulla development takes shape A true ‘win-win’ agreement with Hancock, Macquarie suggests Funding pressures ease/capital raise potentially deferred De-risked Strike Energy might now find broader appeal

• NAT has surged 142% YTD as sanctions and Middle East disruptions tighten the tanker market, pushing Suezmax earnings to record levels.
• With 17 Suezmax vessels and two more on order, NAT has direct exposure to higher rates, with Q2 TCE already rising to USD 63,000/day.
• The outlook hinges on sanctions, OPEC+ supply and fleet growth. NAT has a strong cash buffer, but its sharp re-rating leaves less room for weaker rates.

• Torrent Gas Limited (1726937D IN) (TGL) plans to raise around US$400m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, Citi and Kotak.
• TGL is an integrated city gas distribution company, connecting natural gas producers and suppliers to the end user of natural gas, including domestic households, commercial establishments, industrial consumers and vehicles.
• As per CRISIL, TGL is among the fastest-growing CGD companies, with gas sales rising from 1.38 MMSCMD in FY24 to 2.60 MMSCMD in FY26.

• Crude oil futures retreated for a second session Thursday on hopes that losses from the Saudi pipeline attack would not be as severe as initially feared, while there has been a midweek slowdown in military strikes.
• Nov26 ICE  Brent futures were 1.7% lower at  $104.03/b (2053 BST), while Oct26 NYMEX WTI was at $101.25/b , down 1.15% versus Wednesday’s settle.
• Oil prices had already dropped around 3% Wednesday after Saudi Arabia stepped up efforts to restore its East-West pipeline, easing concerns over how much crude supply will remain disrupted by last week’s drone attack on a major pumping station.

• The commercial scale-up of Amaero’s Tennessee facility remains a capital-intensive race against a tight liquidity runway, characterized by a net loss of A$36.52 million in FY2026 against A$18.15 million in revenue, leaving the company heavily reliant on dilutive equity financing (such as the A$32.3 million mid-2026 placement) despite securing an expanded US$26.1 million EXIM Bank credit facility.
• EIGA technical yield metrics represent a severe structural risk to near-term gross margins, as the actual “target cut” yield of spherical C103 powder for laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) applications typically hovers between 35% to 45%. The remaining out-of-spec coarse powder must either be re-melted or sold at steep discounts, structurally suppressing profitability.
• Defense-critical qualification cycles with naval primes are long and non-linear, typically requiring 18 to 24 months to progress from low-rate initial production (LRIP) to serial production. While the U.S. Navy’s December 2025 Letter of Support and Bechtel Plant Machinery’s (BPMI) pipeline provide high-barrier validation, near-term revenue is severely exposed to raw material cost inflation, with unhedged Hafnium feedstocks surging 700% to US$12,500/kg.

• What you need to know: • Nicola announced that it has commenced the first-ever drill program at the MB Zone, a previously untested target ~1km northwest of the historical Treasure Mountain silver mine.
• • The program comprises four holes (~800m) with drilling expected to finish by the end of September and assays by year-end.
• • Historical 2019 to 2022 surface sampling at MB returned 1,300 g/t Ag, 2.59 g/t Au, 27.4% Pb, and 27.2% Zn from exposed vein.

• What you need to know: • SCZ has acquired a new 500tpd mill in Bolivia that will be utilized to continue expanding the San Lucas ore-sourcing business.
• • The additional capacity will also remove processing constraints to grow SCZ’s other three Bolivian mine operations, which deliver higher margins.
• • Commercial production at the new mill is expected in Q4, and SCZ anticipates higher consolidated production in 2027.

• Crude oil futures early Friday continued to drift lower amid growing optimism that disruptions to Saudi crude after the East-West pipeline attack would be less severe than initially feared.
• Nov26 ICE Brent futures were 0.85% lower at  $103.86/b (0115 BST), while Oct26 NYMEX WTI was at $100.97/b , down 0.9% versus Thursday’s settle.
• It left benchmarks relatively flat on the week as crude pulled back after Saudi Arabia indicated it could restore about half the capacity of its East-West pipeline within days by bypassing a damaged section, with full flows potentially returning by the end of October.

• In this edition: • AkzoNobel | UK antitrust authority launches phase 1 investigation re proposed merger • a.s.r. Nederland / NN Group | Athora: EUR 5.7bn in pension buy-outs so far this year • Unilever | sells Zwitsal to Royal Sanders • Dutch telcos | DELTA Fiber opens new growth avenue through Open Dutch Fiber • Allegro | post earnings call comment

• In January this year, Northern Star Resources (NST AU) cut its FY26 guidance. Then again in March 2026, leading to a ~19% single-day share price fall on the second cut.
• The downgrades pivots off persistent processing issues at its super pit, KCGM, including a legacy primary crusher failure taking out ~25% of a quarter’s processing capacity earlier this year.
• The underperformance and operational issues were/are not lost on activist Elliott (holding 6.24%). Northern Star has made concessions, (temporarily?) avoiding a proxy fight. Still work to do, but a start.

• Multiple index families rebalance at the close today, driving huge flows across Australian stocks. Estimates indicate over A$5bn to trade from passive trackers.
• Among index adds, we see large flows in EQ Resources (EQR AU), Codan (CDA AU), Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU) and Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU). 
• Among index deletes, the largest flows are in Evolution Mining (EVN AU), Atlas Arteria (ALX AU), Cochlear (COH AU), Graincorp (GNC AU) and Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU). 

• The single-asset tolling model at El Teniente provides copper price leverage without exploration, reserve replacement, or growth capex; the contract runs to 2037.
• Debt-Free balance sheet and a rules-based capital return strategy sweep cash above a US$30m floor: US$41.7m returned in H1 2026 versus US$20.4m in FY25.
• 13.4x P/E, 6.4x EV/EBITDA, 8.6% yield; ROCE 75%; net cash US$50 mn, based on a copper price of USD 14,000/ton. 

• Amaero Inc. is a leading U.S.-based producer of high-value refractory and titanium alloy spherical metal powders for additive manufacturing and a pioneer in PM-HIP manufacturing.
• The U.S. addressable market is projected to grow to $1,496.1 million by 2030, supported by a $15.3 million backlog and 680 metric tons capacity.
• As of June 30, 2026, total assets were $88,568, with a net loss of $(13,433) and substantial doubt about going concern.

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• Record FY26 delivery, in line with guidance.
• Lincotrade closed FY26 with revenue up 75.8% YoY to S$129.5 million, led by commercial revenue rising 84.0% to S$121.6 million as a record order book was billed out.
• Net profit attributable to shareholders more than tripled, rising 215.3% to S$8.1 million, as gross profit climbed 87.1% to S$17.3 million and gross margin expanded 0.8 percentage points to 13.3% on a richer commercial mix.

Highlights

• MRF reports a 10% increase in revenue but a 6.52% decline in net profit 

• Apollo records strongest YoY quarterly growth in 14 quarters, at 15.6%

• JK Tyre and CEAT see profitability contract sharply despite continued demand momentum

• Activists Force Governance Overhaul: Elliott Management’s build-up of a 5.35% economic interest via cash-settled swaps has successfully dismantled Northern Star’s historically insular board. The appointments of Mark Cutifani and Peter Rozenauers (effective October 1, 2026) signal a major pivot toward stricter capital discipline and rigorous oversight of the incoming CEO.
• Fragile Executive Bench and Leadership Exodus: While incoming CEO Suresh Vadnagra (commencing October 5, 2026) brings heavy-duty operational pedigree from Glencore and Newcrest, he inherits an empty corporate treasury. The departures of long-serving CFO Ryan Gurner (leaving November 30, 2026), Chief Development Officer Michael Mulroney, and KCGM GM Nick Strong present significant operational integration risks during the critical commissioning of the KCGM mill expansion.
• Elevated Cost Structure Masked by Gold Price: Despite reporting an underlying EBITDA of A$4.27 billion for FY26, Northern Star’s operational execution has been poor, missing its original FY26 production guidance twice to finish at 1.54 million ounces. Rising structural inflation, labor tight-loops in Western Australia, and mill tie-in disruptions have pushed FY27 AISC guidance to a high of A$3,050 – 3,450/oz, placing the company’s asset base in the third quartile of the global cost curve.

• Sri Trang Agro-Industry (STA) is the world’s leading fully integrated natural rubber (NR) producer, controlling approximately 10-12% of global natural rubber supply across upstream plantations, midstream primary processing (TSR, RSS, Concentrated Latex), and downstream finished goods via its subsidiary Sri Trang Gloves (STGT).
• Following cyclical margin compression across FY23-FY25 driven by raw material price volatility and post-pandemic glove destocking, STA has demonstrated a clear operational turnaround in 1H26, with 2Q26 gross margin expanding to 11.97% and quarterly net profit recovering to THB 895.00m, supported by early leadership and premium realizations in European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) compliant rubber.
• Trading at an attractive valuation with a top-tier Smartkarma Value score (5/5) and Dividend score (5/5), STA offers a resilient 4.65% dividend yield backed by robust normalized free cash flow generation (THB 11.85bn in FY25 and THB 9.94bn in 1H26), presenting an attractive risk-reward profile for institutional investors seeking cyclical commodity exposure with ESG-driven pricing upside.

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• GOL reported assays for 7 holes drilled at the Bench Target from its 2026 Drill Program at the Tower Mountain Project.
• Drilling intersected new mineralization ~200m east of the current pit with 0.38 g/t over 121.5m, which remains open in all directions.
• All holes returned above cut-off mineralization in areas currently estimated as waste, presenting potential to enhance the strip ratio.

• A2Gold reported first-phase RC results from the McIntosh Target at Eastside, highlighting a new gold mineralization zone ~370m southwest of the current resource (Hole ES-347: 0.23 g/t Au over 65.5m).
• A second hole extended known McIntosh mineralization ~86m to the southeast (Hole ES-342: 0.20 g/t Au over 32.0m).
• Both intercepts sit on the margins of magnetic-low anomalies, the same signature that hosts the existing resource, supporting the Company’s geophysical targeting model for finding new structures across the district.

• On the 19th May 2026, European Lithium (EUR AU) entered into a reverse Scheme via a scrip deal with ~34.4% held Critical Metals (CRML US).
• CRML initially offered 0.035 new CRML shares for each EUR share. After CRML’s shares cratered post-deal announcement, CRML revised with collared scrip terms.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 22nd October, and expected implementation on the 5th November. The IE (Horizon Nexus) concluded “NOT fair BUT reasonable“.

• PT Indonesia Fibreboard Industry Tbk (IFII IJ) is a leading integrated wood-processing player in Indonesia, specializing in Medium-Density Fibreboard (MDF), High-Moisture-Resistant (HMR) boards, and veneer, supported by a scale facility in South Sumatra with ~450,000 m³/year capacity and strategic backing from the ADR Group and Japan’s SMB Kenzai Co., Ltd.
• The company demonstrates superior profitability and cash generation post-Line 2 commissioning, delivering 31-34% gross margins, robust EBITDA margins consistently exceeding 31-35%, and free cash flow generation exceeding IDR 300 billion in FY24 and FY25.
• Trading at an undemanding valuation of 5.5x EV/EBITDA, 1.5x P/B, and 13.7x P/E with a robust net cash balance sheet and a 3-year dividend CAGR of 40.10%, IFII offers institutional investors a defensive, high-cash-conversion exposure to regional timber processing and export recovery.

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• Washington is betting on Venezuelan oil: NABEP gives the U.S. unprecedented influence over future production, including equity, governance rights and priority access to output.
• The supply impact is distant: NABEP’s current production is far below its target, while infrastructure, capital and field development could push meaningful new volumes into the 2030s.
• Hormuz remains a different story: Venezuelan production cannot offset today’s disruption risk, leaving the current geopolitical premium largely intact despite the long-term supply option.

• Aureka Limited (ASX:AKA) is a junior gold explorer and producer with several projects across current and historically gold-producing regions in Victoria, Australia.
• AKA has signed a binding agreement to acquire High Grade Holdings Pty Ltd (HGH), which would establish it as a small-scale Victorian gold producer, while providing a platform for longer-term production growth.
• AKA had cash of ~$2.3m as of 30 June 2026 and raised $5.65m from its top shareholders to underpin the acquisition, which we think is sufficient to support AKA’s activities and growth initiatives following the integration of the acquisition.

• Yesterday’s bout of NYMEX “profit taking” helps confirm our trading-range scenario, but given this market volatility, it still may be premature to confirm with conviction.                 
• The latest EIA weekly data for implied distillate fuel oil demand continue to reveal a possible moderating trend in U.S. manufacturing activity, thus the stats bear monitoring more than ever.                                   
• If the economy is now finally beginning to respond more adversely to higher oil prices, hopefully the Fed rate hike will not add any fuel to the fire.          

• Crude oil futures continued to ease early Thursday on hopes that losses from the Saudi pipeline attack would not be as severe as initially feared, while there has been a midweek slowdown in military strikes.
• Nov26 ICE  Brent futures were 1.4% lower at  $104.37b (0155 BST), while Oct26 NYMEX WTI was at $101.24/b , down 1.15% versus Wednesday’s settle.
• Oil prices had already dropped around 3% Wednesday after Saudi Arabia stepped up efforts to restore its East-West pipeline, easing concerns over how much crude supply will remain disrupted by last week’s drone attack on a major pumping station.

• Q1 FY27 revenue rose 28% YoY to Rs. 633 crore; EBITDA increased 56% to Rs. 192 crore and PAT 60% to Rs. 133 crore.
• A 30.3% quarterly EBITDA margin shows the economics of premium mix, scale and vertical integration, though Q1 is seasonally strong.
• Earnings quality has improved, but execution and valuation now matter more: the market is already paying for sustained premium growth.

• IPO postponed: Holtec delayed its $900 million IPO amid market conditions, with no new launch date announced.
• Valuation pushback: Weak performance among nuclear peers has made investors more cautious about Holtec’s proposed $8.5-$10.2 billion valuation.
• AI tailwind faces headwinds: Nuclear remains central to AI power demand, but volatility in AI and power stocks is dampening investor appetite.

• Listed on the main London market, Panther is focused on established mining jurisdictions with the capacity for project scalability.
• It is principally known for its Winston tailings project (gold, silver, gallium and cobalt) in Ontario, but in the Obonga Greenstone Belt of Ontario, Canada, it also has a potentially large VMS (volcanogenic massive sulphide) discovery called Wishbone; an early-stage nickel/copper find called Awkward; a series of additional targets (Survey, Silver Rim, Ottertooth and others) within the same Obonga project area; and an early-stage magnesium-led project called Dotted Lake.
• Panther raised gross proceeds of £2.5m in June 2026 via an oversubscribed placing to finance the expansion of an existing Phase 1 diamond drilling programme at Wishbone, and additional metallurgical test work/recovery plant design for the Winston tailings project.

• Integrated Coal Mining Services Platform: PT Samindo Resources Tbk (MYOH IJ) provides end-to-end open-pit mining services—encompassing overburden removal, coal extraction, coal hauling, and exploration drilling—primarily servicing tier-1 concessionaires such as PT Kideco Jaya Agung in East Kalimantan.
• Robust Free Cash Flow Generation & Unleveraged Balance Sheet: MYOH generated IDR 603.6bn in operating cash flow and IDR 561.1bn in free cash flow (FCFE) in 2025 (3-year FCF CAGR of 43.59%), supported by EBITDA margins of ~21-28% and disciplined capital allocation.
• Compelling Value and Capital Return Profile: Trading at an undemanding 1.8x EV/EBITDA, 0.4x EV/Sales, and 0.8x P/B with a 5.98% dividend yield, MYOH offers significant downside protection, though medium-term upside remains tethered to client concentration and open-pit mining weather dynamics.

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• Solar SA has offered R134.50 per Omnia share, valuing 100% of the target at R21.83 billion, or about Rs. 12,951 crore.
• Omnia adds BME, a 23-country operating footprint, integrated feedstock assets and an agriculture platform whose FY26 revenue exceeds Solar’s.
• Solar’s growth ceiling rises materially, but near-term investor focus shifts from execution-led compounding to funding, leverage and integration discipline.

• The European Lithium (EUR AU) IE considers that Critical Metals (CRML US)’s scheme offer is NOT fair but reasonable. At preferred values, the consideration is 9% below the assessed value.
• For the deal to be fair, the CRML 20-day VWAP used to determine the exchange ratio would need to be between US$7.86 and US$8.81 per share (CRML’s close was US$6.46).
• Despite the IE’s opinion, the scheme vote should pass as the sole substantial shareholder is not an activist and no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. 

• D&L is ELSA’s established earnings engine, contributing the largest share of Group profit in every primary-verified year from FY2022–FY2025, including 62.2% in FY2025, despite meaningful volatility in the other segments.
• 1H2026 confirms acceleration: D&L revenue grew 26.6%, operating profit 50.2%, and segment net profit 54.4%, with half of operating-profit growth driven by revenue/volume and half by margin expansion in tandem.
• Our Base Case requires no Upstream recovery and values ELSA at Rp934/share, implying 28.8% upside from Rp725 on a modest 7.5x P/E multiple, without credit for seismic conversion or recovery.

• Illinois’ recent mega battery storage procurement marks meaningful progress toward its 3,000-MW 2030 target, although regional grid connection constraints limited participation.
• In transportation, President Trump’s openness to Chinese automakers manufacturing in the US—provided they employ American workers—signals a potential shift in EV policy, despite congressional opposition, tariffs, and existing restrictions.
• Meanwhile, the EPA’s proposed rollback of power plant carbon rules could weaken incentives for carbon capture and hydrogen. 

• The Omnia acquisition (~₹12,951 crore / $1.355 billion) is effectively a reverse takeover in scale, with Omnia’s FY26 revenue of $1.41 billion outstripping Solar Industries’ own FY26 top-line of ₹9,837.74 crore. Funding the deal strictly via off-shore debt on Omnia’s books and internal accruals exposes Solar to significant debt-servicing friction under South Africa’s restrictive 10.50% prime lending rate.
• PESO (Petroleum and Explosives Safety Organisation) regulatory bottlenecks are severely underestimated by the street. Following several fatal accidents—including the December 2023 Nagpur blast that killed nine workers and 59 industry deaths in the Vidarbha region through early 2026—licensing wait times for new capacity and advanced propellant lines have ballooned from months to years.
• A separate listing of the defence business, rebranded as Solar Defence and Aerospace Limited in February 2025, faces immense promoter resistance and balance-sheet cross-collateralization. Despite a massive ₹18,000+ crore defence order book, a clean spin-off is structurally blocked by covenants linking defence assets to commercial explosives liabilities.

• Braskem’s 2Q26 EBITDA surged to R$5.25bn on temporarily wider petrochemical spreads, but statutory free operating cash flow remained negative and liquidity stayed tight.
• The credit is now an active restructuring story, with defaults, creditor protection measures and potential new collateralization shifting bond value toward recovery and claim treatment.
• We remain Neutral and prefer the 8.500% 2031s, where accrued-claim optionality offsets a modest price premium, while the 2050s offer higher recovery convexity.

• The Thai government has approved Valeura’s acquisition of a 40% working interest in blocks G1/65 and G3/65 from PTTEP.
• Completion is expected within two weeks.
• At closing, Valeura will reimburse PTTEP for 40% of back costs, together with the cost of the 163 km² 3D seismic programme over Nong Yao Northeast (which Valeura carried).

• Oil prices surged yesterday in response to a further escalation of the Houthi-Saudi conflict, which resulted in a closure of the port of Yanbu and damage to the SANREF refinery.                 
• There is as of yet no indication of any attempt at diplomacy to resolve the situation, although the Houthis claim that transit through the Bab el-Mandeb is “safe.”                                  
• In terms of trading, given the risk of either further oil price gains or this market turning on a dime via a ceasefire/diplomacy, we would continue to concentrate on spreads.          

• Insilco Limited (a 73.11% subsidiary of Germany-based Evonik Operations GmbH) is in the final stages of voluntary liquidation under Section 59 of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) 2016, following the permanent shutdown of its Gajraula plant in October 2019 due to environmental permit denials by the UPPCB.
• Financial results reflect zero operational revenue across all trailing twelve quarters, persistent operational cash outflows (-INR 32.32M in FY26 and -INR 11.91M in FY25), and a singular FY24 net profit of INR 313.64M generated purely from the monetization of fixed assets (Gajraula facility sold for INR 420M).
• With an interim liquidation capital distribution of INR 4.58 per share executed in March 2025 and the Liquidator filing for formal corporate dissolution with the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT), equity shares retain no going-concern value and are subject to terminal delisting and residual liquidation settlement.

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Highlights

• Natural rubber production surges 22% MoM in June to 61,000 tonnes.

• Compound rubber imports jump 46% year-on-year to 108,148 tonnes in Q1.

• Natural rubber consumption fell 6.1% year-on-year to 341,000 tonnes in Q1

• Palisades is the near-term catalyst, with the 800MW restart expected to provide a meaningful financial step-up once commercial operations resume.
• SMR-300 offers the transformational opportunity, positioning Holtec to participate in the global shift toward advanced nuclear power.
• A $24 billion backlog and established nuclear-services businesses provide recurring revenue and cash flow while Holtec funds its growth initiatives.

• Market Leadership in Brownfield Topside Maintenance: Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd (DEHB MK) is Malaysia’s premier offshore topside maintenance, construction, and modification (MCM) and hook-up and commissioning (HUC) specialist, operating an integrated marine support fleet via subsidiary Perdana Petroleum.
• Superior Cash Flow Generation and Fortress Balance Sheet: The group demonstrates exceptional financial resilience, delivering RM293.07M in free cash flow in FY2025 and supporting an industry-leading dividend yield of 9.66% alongside stable EBITDA margins exceeding 40%.
• Compelling Valuation Multiple Discount: Trading at 9.8x P/E, 0.9x P/B, and 3.7x EV/EBITDA, Dayang presents institutional investors with an asymmetrical risk-reward profile, offering robust downside protection and leverage to long-term offshore asset integrity spending cycles.

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• Empyrean Energy has signed a binding Heads of Agreement to acquire a 10% economic interest in the GOLD Cluster Area in Austria, in exchange for funding the drilling and testing of the GOLD‑1 well.
• The required investment is EUR 555,400.
• Empyrean will also pay EUR 50,000 (non‑refundable) for an exclusivity period running until 16 October, during which final funding arrangements and documentation will be completed.

• Frontline plc reported its strongest quarterly performance to date in the second quarter of 2026, underpinned by a long-term strategy focusing on expanding its voyage base and Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) exposure during the post-COVID downturn.
• The company achieved impressive time charter equivalent (TCE) earnings, with VLCCs averaging approximately $152,700 per day, Suezmax tankers around $111,500 per day, and LR2/Aframax tankers approximately $92,400 per day.
• Early third-quarter bookings continue at similarly elevated rates.

• The IRI/CCSR prediction plume goes out every month and travels far — onto commodity desks, into insurance notes, through agricultural outlooks.
• It is among the most widely shared forecasts in macro, and among the least well read.
• We backtested all 291 plume starts since May 2002, roughly 6,800 model runs, against the observed Oceanic Niño Index. Three things stand out.

• The full fiscal year 2026 results update from IREN presents a company focused on addressing structural constraints in the AI infrastructure ecosystem, particularly on the physical infrastructure side encompassing data centers, power, and land.
• IREN operates across three integrated layers: physical data centers and supporting infrastructure; compute hardware such as GPUs and networking; and software and managed services, exemplified by its Mirantis division.
• This vertical integration aims to capture value across the stack and enhance the customer offering.

• Sailfish has signed a non-binding LOI with Mako Mining for a 20-year gold purchase agreement, stepping up from 650oz per month to 1,000oz, in exchange for 70.0M shares at C$5.76.
• FISH will pay Mako 25% of the LBMA PM Fix price on each delivery from working capital.
• Mako is expected to hold ~49% of FISH once completed.

• Additives and Petroleum Products JSC (APP VN) operates as a specialized Vietnamese blender and distributor of automotive and industrial lubricants, specialty greases, and functional fluids, with manufacturing assets in Gia Lam (Hanoi) and Hai Phong.
• Operational & Financial Volatility: Financial performance has experienced pronounced margin compression, with revenue contracting 26.0% YoY in 2023 to VND 200.82bn and net income deteriorating into a loss of VND -4.50bn (gross margin halved from 13.80% in 2021 to 7.32% in 2023) due to raw material cost pressures and intense domestic competition.
• Subdued Valuation & Risk Profile: Trading at an EV/Sales of 0.2x and EV/EBITDA of 6.2x, the stock reflects significant operational headwinds, absence of recent dividend distributions, and structural competition from well-capitalized multinational and state-backed peers.

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• There are 44 adds, 1 delete and 2 listing changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. There are capping and float changes too.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 15% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3.2bn. There is a lot of stock to buy in the inclusions.
• There are a number of adds in Asia that will have same-way flow from passive trackers of other local and global indices on the same day.

• The MV Global Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small/medium-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
• There will be 44 ADDs and 2 DELs for the September 2026 rebal.  The ADDs are small yet high-impact and there will be one big DEL.
• We expect a one-way flow of US$1.35bn for September 2026 to trade on the close of 18th September 2026.

• The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
• We saw no changes for the September 2026 rebal event. There will be no index changes for the September 2026 rebal event.
• We expect a one-way flow of US$687mm for September 2026.

• Australia’s ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 7th September, published on the 11th September.
• The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.1bn into “Banks“; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of “Diversified Metals“. Net shorts iincreased A$1bn week-on-week.
• Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: CBA (CBA AU), Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), Westpac Banking (WBC AU), Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), and National Australia Bank (NAB AU).

• Given the ongoing uncertainty regarding the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by the uncertainty of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, it is still hazardous to call a top to this oil market.
• We see some analysts now emerging and stating that the market is now poised for a new phase of renewed price strength well above $100.00 per barrel.           
• At this point, from a trading standpoint we will reserve final judgement in terms of the flat price, and remain focused on spread relationships.          

• Under the leadership of Simon Trott, who succeeded Jakob Stausholm as CEO in August 2025, Rio Tinto has pivoted sharply toward intense cost discipline and capital restraint. This is highlighted by the reduction of the group’s decarbonization capital budget from $5-6 billion down to $1-2 billion by shifting spending risks to third-party developers, and targeting $1.8 billion in annualized productivity benefits by the end of 2026.
• The $6.7 billion cash acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, completed on March 5, 2025, represented a major counter-cyclical growth bet. However, to preserve balance sheet strength and fund the heavy capital intensity of Simandou and Oyu Tolgoi, Rio has initiated a plan to release $5-10 billion in capital through cost cuts and opportunistic non-core divestments, including reviews of its titanium and borates businesses.
• Sovereign friction remains a major cash drain, as demonstrated by Oyu Tolgoi paying a disputed $443 million (MNT 1.6 trillion) tax assessment in Mongolia in March 2026. While Rio settled some key pain points in mid-2026 by halving OT’s management fees and adjusting the shareholder loan interest rate, these moves highlight the high cost of securing long-term operational license in complex jurisdictions.

• Barrel Energy, Inc. is a Nevada corporation focused on environmental services, renewable energy, and waste-to-value activities via Happy Traps, LLC. It also launched a nutritional products division.
• Barrel Energy operates in environmental services, renewable energy, and waste-to-value sectors, with FY2025 revenue of $211,531 and net income of $23,610.
• Barrel Energy reported FY2025 revenue of $211,531 and net income of $23,610, with substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern.

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• The base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with a smaller supply surplus than usual, as tighter Asian and Group III balances leave less supply available to absorb further disruptions

• The base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with less surplus than usual, after the third-quarter slowdown failed to produce the usual supply build.

• China and India are putting more pressure on available barrels, with China’s Group II balance tightening as India’s demand extends its recovery.

• Several cargoes of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan at end-August and early September, with all of them heading to Southeast Asia and one likely bound for India.
• A cargo of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan in late July was set to reach East Coast South America at the end of this week.
• Singapore took delivery of more base oils from the Netherlands, adding to a shipment from the same country last week.

• There is 1 add/delete for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Index, and no constituent changes for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index in September.
• Boss Energy (BOE AU) is an add, Encore Energy (EU US) is a delete, and there is a listing switch for IsoEnergy (ISO CN). 
• The round-trip trade across both indices is US$824m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.

• EQ Resources (EQR AU) and Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) at the close on 18 September.
• The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.7% and in a round-trip trade of US$514m.
• Other passive index trackers will be buying significant size in EQ Resources (EQR AU) and smaller size in Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) at the same time.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• Government bond markets continue to exert pressure on other assets
• The Japanese Yen has likely confirmed a trend change – expect more volatility

• Triveni Engineering has demerged its Power Transmission and Defence businesses, creating a focused company with strong margins and a clean balance sheet
• Power Transmission contributes only ~4% of revenue but ~23% of segment profit, with PBIT margins of ~35% and a growing aftermarket business
• Capacity expansion, defence opportunities and marine systems could support the next phase of growth, but execution and utilisation remain key

• The fiscal year 2027 revenue guidance of $400 million to $460 million is highly speculative, relying on a frictionless 10x scale-up of Pohang capacity to 10,000 metric tons by November 2026 and the rapid conversion of pilot relationships into binding commercial-scale contracts.
• Severe dilution from the Yorkville Advisors convertible debenture facility is a critical overhang, with $20.0 million in principal still outstanding as of August 2026 and a newly filed S-1 registering 7.5 million shares for resale, which will pressure the stock regardless of operational milestones.
• The company’s non-China supply chain is exceptionally fragile, depending on a single July 2026 contract with SRE Vietnam (via Japan’s Senri Trading) that has only delivered an initial 5 metric tons of NdPr metal, leaving a massive gap to feed the targeted 10,000-ton magnet manufacturing capacity.

• Earnings quality is very high based on our analysis of net income relative to operating cash flow
• Its competitive strategy appears excellent based on the gross profit margin
• The company is very good at generating consistently positive operating cash flow

• In this edition: • Heineken | seeks majority control of Dutch hard-seltzer leader Stelz • Shell | two transactions to optimize US power portfolio • Basic-Fit | acquires 26 clubs in Austria and Germany for EUR 26m • PostNL | reaches milestone of 10 million mobile app downloads • D’Ieteren Group | Belron strategic review and the conglomerate discount

• What you need to know: • SCM has entered into an agreement to acquire a 75% interest in the Péribonka Rare Earth Element (REE) and Niobium Carbonatite Project in Québec’s Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region.
• • The project lies within the Saguenay Graben, a well-established structural corridor hosting multiple alkaline and carbonatite intrusions.
• • The consideration for the project consists of 1.0M Steadright shares (at $0.12/share), with 600,000 shares issued immediately (subject to a four-month hold), and the remaining 400,000 shares to be issued within six months.