Energy & Materials Sector

• There are 44 adds, 1 delete and 2 listing changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. There are capping and float changes too.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 15% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3.2bn. There is a lot of stock to buy in the inclusions.
• There are a number of adds in Asia that will have same-way flow from passive trackers of other local and global indices on the same day.

• The MV Global Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small/medium-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
• There will be 44 ADDs and 2 DELs for the September 2026 rebal.  The ADDs are small yet high-impact and there will be one big DEL.
• We expect a one-way flow of US$1.35bn for September 2026 to trade on the close of 18th September 2026.

• The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
• We saw no changes for the September 2026 rebal event. There will be no index changes for the September 2026 rebal event.
• We expect a one-way flow of US$687mm for September 2026.

• Australia’s ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 7th September, published on the 11th September.
• The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.1bn into “Banks“; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of “Diversified Metals“. Net shorts iincreased A$1bn week-on-week.
• Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: CBA (CBA AU), Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), Westpac Banking (WBC AU), Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), and National Australia Bank (NAB AU).

• Given the ongoing uncertainty regarding the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by the uncertainty of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, it is still hazardous to call a top to this oil market.
• We see some analysts now emerging and stating that the market is now poised for a new phase of renewed price strength well above $100.00 per barrel.           
• At this point, from a trading standpoint we will reserve final judgement in terms of the flat price, and remain focused on spread relationships.          

• Under the leadership of Simon Trott, who succeeded Jakob Stausholm as CEO in August 2025, Rio Tinto has pivoted sharply toward intense cost discipline and capital restraint. This is highlighted by the reduction of the group’s decarbonization capital budget from $5-6 billion down to $1-2 billion by shifting spending risks to third-party developers, and targeting $1.8 billion in annualized productivity benefits by the end of 2026.
• The $6.7 billion cash acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, completed on March 5, 2025, represented a major counter-cyclical growth bet. However, to preserve balance sheet strength and fund the heavy capital intensity of Simandou and Oyu Tolgoi, Rio has initiated a plan to release $5-10 billion in capital through cost cuts and opportunistic non-core divestments, including reviews of its titanium and borates businesses.
• Sovereign friction remains a major cash drain, as demonstrated by Oyu Tolgoi paying a disputed $443 million (MNT 1.6 trillion) tax assessment in Mongolia in March 2026. While Rio settled some key pain points in mid-2026 by halving OT’s management fees and adjusting the shareholder loan interest rate, these moves highlight the high cost of securing long-term operational license in complex jurisdictions.

• Barrel Energy, Inc. is a Nevada corporation focused on environmental services, renewable energy, and waste-to-value activities via Happy Traps, LLC. It also launched a nutritional products division.
• Barrel Energy operates in environmental services, renewable energy, and waste-to-value sectors, with FY2025 revenue of $211,531 and net income of $23,610.
• Barrel Energy reported FY2025 revenue of $211,531 and net income of $23,610, with substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern.

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• The base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with a smaller supply surplus than usual, as tighter Asian and Group III balances leave less supply available to absorb further disruptions

• The base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with less surplus than usual, after the third-quarter slowdown failed to produce the usual supply build.

• China and India are putting more pressure on available barrels, with China’s Group II balance tightening as India’s demand extends its recovery.

• Several cargoes of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan at end-August and early September, with all of them heading to Southeast Asia and one likely bound for India.
• A cargo of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan in late July was set to reach East Coast South America at the end of this week.
• Singapore took delivery of more base oils from the Netherlands, adding to a shipment from the same country last week.

• There is 1 add/delete for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Index, and no constituent changes for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index in September.
• Boss Energy (BOE AU) is an add, Encore Energy (EU US) is a delete, and there is a listing switch for IsoEnergy (ISO CN). 
• The round-trip trade across both indices is US$824m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.

• EQ Resources (EQR AU) and Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) at the close on 18 September.
• The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.7% and in a round-trip trade of US$514m.
• Other passive index trackers will be buying significant size in EQ Resources (EQR AU) and smaller size in Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) at the same time.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• Government bond markets continue to exert pressure on other assets
• The Japanese Yen has likely confirmed a trend change – expect more volatility

• Triveni Engineering has demerged its Power Transmission and Defence businesses, creating a focused company with strong margins and a clean balance sheet
• Power Transmission contributes only ~4% of revenue but ~23% of segment profit, with PBIT margins of ~35% and a growing aftermarket business
• Capacity expansion, defence opportunities and marine systems could support the next phase of growth, but execution and utilisation remain key

• The fiscal year 2027 revenue guidance of $400 million to $460 million is highly speculative, relying on a frictionless 10x scale-up of Pohang capacity to 10,000 metric tons by November 2026 and the rapid conversion of pilot relationships into binding commercial-scale contracts.
• Severe dilution from the Yorkville Advisors convertible debenture facility is a critical overhang, with $20.0 million in principal still outstanding as of August 2026 and a newly filed S-1 registering 7.5 million shares for resale, which will pressure the stock regardless of operational milestones.
• The company’s non-China supply chain is exceptionally fragile, depending on a single July 2026 contract with SRE Vietnam (via Japan’s Senri Trading) that has only delivered an initial 5 metric tons of NdPr metal, leaving a massive gap to feed the targeted 10,000-ton magnet manufacturing capacity.

• Earnings quality is very high based on our analysis of net income relative to operating cash flow
• Its competitive strategy appears excellent based on the gross profit margin
• The company is very good at generating consistently positive operating cash flow

• In this edition: • Heineken | seeks majority control of Dutch hard-seltzer leader Stelz • Shell | two transactions to optimize US power portfolio • Basic-Fit | acquires 26 clubs in Austria and Germany for EUR 26m • PostNL | reaches milestone of 10 million mobile app downloads • D’Ieteren Group | Belron strategic review and the conglomerate discount

• What you need to know: • SCM has entered into an agreement to acquire a 75% interest in the Péribonka Rare Earth Element (REE) and Niobium Carbonatite Project in Québec’s Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region.
• • The project lies within the Saguenay Graben, a well-established structural corridor hosting multiple alkaline and carbonatite intrusions.
• • The consideration for the project consists of 1.0M Steadright shares (at $0.12/share), with 600,000 shares issued immediately (subject to a four-month hold), and the remaining 400,000 shares to be issued within six months.

• Evolution Metals & Technologies Corp. is a Delaware-incorporated company building an integrated supply chain for critical materials, rare earth elements, and advanced magnet technologies. Its mission is to establish a.
• Evolution Metals & Technologies became a publicly traded company on January 5, 2026, and issued convertible debentures up to $100,000,000 on May 7, 2026.
• For the six months ended June 30, 2026, total revenue was $1,000, with a net loss of $(1,000) and net cash used in operating activities of $(1,000).

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• Holtec is a U.S.-headquartered multinational technology company specializing in nuclear power generation and expanding into clean energy solutions and long-duration energy storage. It leads in nuclear energy, providing SSCs and.
• Holtec operates three advanced U.S. manufacturing plants with over one million square feet capacity and holds 203 granted patents worldwide.
• Total assets were $6,479,453 as of June 30, 2026, and $6,075,636 as of December 31, 2025.

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• Mine supply is stuck near 3,600 tonnes a year. Central bank buying doubled after the Russia-Ukraine war, from 500 tonnes to 1,000 tonnes, squeezing everyone else.
• Debasement, not real rates, drives gold now. Yields that signal fiscal stress pull money in, not out. August proved it: rates stayed high, gold rallied anyway. Intervention does the same.
• Three small- to mid-cap stocks we like to play the gold theme are OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) / Apex Mining (APX PM), and Wesdome Gold Mines (WDO CN)

• Luanda has approved Corcel’s acquisition of an additional 30% interest in KON‑16.
• Corcel has also signed a definitive SPA with Sintana to divest a 5% interest for US$2.5 mm, resulting in a 71.5% net interest in the block.
• Although both transactions were announced in 2025, regulatory approvals in Angola are lengthy, and completion now allows Corcel to accelerate operational activity.

• Goliath Resources provides investors with exposure to gold, silver, and copper resource exploration, as well as leverage to an increasing in-ground inventory with discovery upside, during a gold price market that has reached new all-time highs.
• The downside is limited by the expected significant positive news flow ongoing in 2026.
• We conducted a site visit to the project in BC’s Golden Triangle during the second week of drilling for 2026.

• Holtec combines an established nuclear-services platform, significant technical and regulatory barriers to entry, a premier underwriting syndicate and exposure to one of the strongest themes in the capital markets.
• Its relatively limited public float and the quiet recent IPO calendar could support favorable demand during the roadshow.
• The principal constraints are the aggressive valuation, complicated financial presentation, concentrated voting control and substantial execution risk associated with Palisades and commercial deployment of the SMR-300.

• Holtec Nuclear Corporation (HNUC) is preparing to sell 50.0 million shares of Class A common stock on the Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas at an expected price of $15.00 to $18.00 per share.
• At the $16.50 midpoint, the offering would raise $825.0 million and value the company at approximately $9.35 billion.
• J.P. Morgan, Guggenheim Securities, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and BofA Securities are serving as joint book-running managers.

• Choi Yun-beom’s camp secured a crucial tactical victory in the September 9, 2026 extraordinary general meeting (EGM), with independent audit nominee Baek In-kyoo receiving 81.8% of the vote. This success was heavily driven by Korea’s “3% rule,” which capped the voting power of the dominant MBK-Young Poong alliance (42.1% overall stake) and allowed retail and foreign institutional investors to swing the outcome.
• Korea Zinc’s balance sheet has undergone a structural transformation, with total debt reaching $4.28 billion as of March 2026 and consolidated net debt standing at KRW 4.384 trillion in Q1 2026. The treasury team has successfully migrated high-cost short-term acquisition debt into longer-term, lower-yield domestic corporate bonds, drawing KRW 1.16 trillion in orders for an oversubscribed KRW 400 billion issuance in April 2025.
• Smelting margin pressure from record-low treatment charges (TCs) of $80 per ton in 2025 and $85 per ton in 2026 has been entirely offset by premium by-product credits. Korea Zinc’s high-margin silver and gold recoveries, alongside critical metals like germanium and antimony, have driven record operating profits (e.g., KRW 746 billion in Q1 2026), widening the competitive moat against pure-play competitors like Young Poong.

• ADF reported strong Q2 financial results including revenue of $95.0M (+79% YoY) vs. our estimate of $85.8M.
• EBITDA of $8.4M (+128% YoY, 9% margin), below our expectations due to $5.9M in DSU/PSU expense.
• Adjusting for this, EBITDA would have been in line with our forecast.

Key points (machine generated)

• Tomoegawa Corporation was founded in 1914 as a paper company and has transformed into a high-functionality materials manufacturer.
• The company has utilized its electric property evaluation technology to innovate in various sectors, including papermaking and adhesives.
• In January 2024, Tomoegawa rebranded itself to emphasize its commitment to proposal-based solutions and implement structural reforms for growth.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

• Two years have passed since the fight for the control of Korea Zinc erupted. Despite having lower stake, Chairman Choi alliance has maintained control over the company. 
• It is estimated that MBK/Young Poong alliance has a combined stake of 42.1% stake in Korea Zinc versus 38.8% for the Chairman Choi alliance.
• Fight for control of Korea Zinc is far from over. MBK/Young Poong alliance is likely to stage a third proxy battle for Korea Zinc against Chairman Choi in March 2027. 

• In early October, Corteva (CTVA) will spin off its seed business into a new public company called Vylor, Inc.
• I have spent the last week working through Vylor’s Form 10 to get ready for the investor days on September 15, 2026 and for the start of trading.
• The distribution is targeted for October 1, 2026, and regular-way trading is expected to begin the same day.

Highlights

• June rubber exports surge 54.1% month-on-month to 114,010 tonnes

• China shipments fall 21.5% in H1, while Indonesia jumps 143.7%

• Rubber-product exports rise 13.4% in H1 to US$802.5 million

• Indonesia emerged as the second-largest destination by volume in the first half, with shipments jumping 143.7% to 47,782 tonnes.

• With the “naval war” now in full swing, the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract managed to settle yesterday at the highest level since May.                  
• In tandem with the naval war, we now have intensified military activity between Yemen-based Houthis and Saudi Arabia, compounding oil price strength and risk.                                   
• We have been premature in suggesting that crude oil prices may be peaking, but we would not chase the market since we believe ultra-high ULSD will take its economic toll.           

• AGC provided an exploration update at its Ngalula and Akyanga East targets, including strong gold grades from sampling.
• Results refine the geological model for drilling, and at Ngalula, mineralization was extended ~1.5km, with two parallel trends identified.
• In tandem, AGC continues to report strong drill results at Akyanga, recently releasing 12.30 g/t over 3.85m.

• Maritana Minerals Limited (ASX:MRT), is an emerging junior gold producer with 1.9moz of gold resources located around the Kalgoorlie and Coolgardie regions of Western Australia.
• MRT has released several updates over the past month that provide further details on ongoing site development at Black Swan and exploration activities.
• We make several adjustments to our modelling, which results in a modest increase in our valuation to $2.836/share, which represents a premium of 248% to the current share price.

• Nicola reported the results of an independent underground inspection at its 100%-owned Treasure Mountain silver-lead-zinc mine, as it targets a restart in 2027.
• After ~13 years in care and maintenance, the mine was found in better condition than expected, with both portals accessible.
• The inspection found no conditions preventing advancement and flagged a historical muck pile near the Level 1 portal that Nicola will sample as a potential source of near-term mill feed.

• No-HALEU Supply Chain Advantage: Unlike competitors deploying Gen IV advanced reactors, Holtec’s SMR-300 relies on standard Gen III+ pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel enriched to less than 5%. This bypasses the severe High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) fuel bottleneck, providing a highly predictable path to commercial fuel procurement.
• SMR Commercialization Realities: Despite S-1 marketing timelines targeting commercial operations by 2030 or 2031, a realistic utility-scale SMR-300 deployment will not occur until the mid-2030s. Utilities require first-of-a-kind (FOAK) operational data and standard design approval before making binding, balance-sheet-supported purchase commitments.
• The Palisades PPA Risk and Capital Allocation: The Palisades restart represents an unprecedented regulatory and operational gamble. While supported by a $1.52 billion DOE loan and a $300 million state grant, Holtec faces a strict contractual deadline of March 2027 to complete the restart. SMR-300 commercialization will consume most of the $750 million to $900 million IPO proceeds, but the UP-C corporate structure restricts public shareholders to a minority Class A economic stake, leaving operating control in the hands of the founder.

• Demand across the Americas rose 4%, as a rebound in US consumption offset a 7% drop in Latin America.
• Europe’s lubricants demand fell 4% in June, a second straight monthly decline, after rising for three straight months to April.
• Asia’s lubricants demand outside China fell 2% in June, a second straight monthly decline.

• CTM reported assays from five holes (1,229m) of its Phase 2 drill program at Buchans, focused on infill drilling at Lundberg and first-pass testing at the Horseshoe target.
• At Lundberg, 0.75% CuEq over 144.0m, including 1.00% CuEq over 76.0m, confirms broad near-surface mineralization.
• Lundberg drilling is now complete, and CTM has gained increased confidence in the system’s continuity, with an MRE on track for Q4/26.

• Record US copper imports point to aggressive stockpiling, while Congo’s rising cathode shipments signal growing competition for physical demand outside COMEX channels.
• Copper options retain a clear bullish tilt, with OI PCR at 0.55 and volume PCR at 0.30 signaling strong upside demand, while the easing CVOL points to lower volatility expectations.
• Political pushback puts VBM’s IPO on hold, while Vale plans to double its copper business, keeping its growth strategy firmly focused on expanding production.

• Persistent rainfall across Thailand and reported raw material shortages in Vietnam continue to disrupt tapping and constrain availability, while El Niño raises the risk of further production losses during the critical October–November period.

• Physical fundamentals are firm, but speculative activity is amplifying the rally.

• Buyers are becoming increasingly cautious as they are hesitant to chase the rapid rally widening bid-offer gaps and reducing liquidity despite firm producer expectations.

• Near-term outlook remains bullish but vulnerable to correction

• WTI gained 9.7% last week as Hormuz tensions drove a sharp geopolitical risk premium, while speculative positioning turned more bullish through fresh long additions and short covering.
• Options markets moved from panic to acceptance, with IV and skew dropping as WTI held above USD 90, though put demand remained elevated for downside protection.
• Cheniere’s contracted model continues to deliver strong growth, but the 2027 to 2028 LNG supply wave could pressure the uncontracted margins behind recent earnings beats.

• Jubilant Ingrevia (JUBLINGR IN) ’s Business Mix is improving with Specialty Chemicals driving 75% of EBITDA; however, capital efficiency remains subdued as asset turnover and ROCE have yet to recover.
• Balance-Sheet health remains comfortable, but capital allocation warrants scrutiny given excess cash in current accounts, rising contingent liabilities and potential under-utilisation of newly commissioned Bharuch capacity. 
• Earnings quality has watchpoints, including rising receivables, sizeable non-core income, profit-linked promoter remuneration and nominal-priced ESOPs, though no strong aggregate manipulation signal emerges.

• MEC (4971 JP) produced FY26 1H (Dec year-end) OP of ¥4,135mil (+69.4% YoY) on sales of ¥12,594mil (+34.2% YoY), coming in ahead of guidance for OP of ¥4,000mil (+63.9% YoY) on sales of ¥12,250mil (+30.5% YoY).
• Based on the ongoing demand outlook for high-end semiconductor packages for which MEC’s core chemicals are used, the full-year FY26 guidance was revised up from OP of ¥7,600mil (+32.2% YoY) on sales of ¥24,500mil (+17.0% YoY)] to OP of ¥8,300mil (+44.4% YoY) on sales of ¥25,800mil (+23.2% YoY).
• While the CZ-8101 will continue to contribute to FY26 earnings, the growth of the more advanced CZ-8201 and CZ-8401 package substrates is also expected to drive growth.

• Europe’s supply held relatively steady at more than 370,000 tonnes, close to where it has stood for most of the past six months.
• Americas supply dipped as plant maintenance in Brazil combined with US output falling to a 14-month low.
• Middle East supply fell to its lowest level in more than seven years, with a slump in Group III shipments outweighing a rise in flows from Saudi Arabia.

• Crasus Chemical (646A JP) is being spun off from Resonac Holdings (4004 JP) as an independent petrochemical enterprise listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Standard Market, with trading scheduled to commence on September 29, 2026. The transaction distributes over 80% of Crasus shares to Resonac shareholders via an in-kind dividend, carving out a foundational basic chemicals and olefins business centered on the integrated Oita Petrochemical Complex (618,000 t/y ethylene cracker).
• Financially, Crasus delivers substantial scale, generating consolidated revenue of ¥303.93bn and operating income of ¥4.21bn in FY2025, supported by a solid balance sheet with ¥74.65bn in net assets (book value of ¥284.12 per share). The company’s standout capital allocation policy commits to a target Dividend on Equity (DOE) of 5.0%, establishing Crasus as an attractive, high-yielding Japanese basic materials vehicle that provides strong downside cash-return protection across commodity cycles.
• Near-term trading is expected to encounter technical supply-demand distortions, as passive funds divest an estimated 14–16 million shares due to index exclusions (such as from the Nikkei 225 and major international standard benchmarks), despite inclusion in TOPIX and JPX-Nikkei 400. This near-term flow overhang presents institutional value and income investors with an attractive entry point to acquire a cash-generative, asset-backed petrochemical asset at a favorable implied valuation multiple.

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• Holtec is bringing a large-scale nuclear-focused IPO to market, offering 50 million shares at $15–$18 for an implied $8.5 billion–$10.2 billion valuation.
• The company combines established nuclear businesses with significant SMR-300 growth ambitions, supported by dominant U.S. spent-fuel market share and the Palisades restart project.
• Demand and valuation remain key questions, particularly following weak performance from 2026 energy IPOs, making investor appetite and peer trading levels critical to the September 19 debut.

• SLB has moved decisively to deepen its exposure to the AI infrastructure buildout by agreeing to acquire thermal-management specialist Kelvion for approximately $4.1 billion.
• The transaction, announced on August 31, 2026, calls for SLB to pay roughly $3.4 billion in cash while assuming about $700 million of Kelvion debt, with closing targeted for the first half of 2027 subject to regulatory approvals and customary conditions.
• Kelvion is expected to generate $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion of revenue in 2026, with data centers accounting for roughly 55% of sales and representing its fastest-growing and most profitable end market.

• Back in February 2024, Resonac Holdings (4004 JP) announced it would start an assessment of a partial spinoff of its petrochemicals division, Crasus Chemical (646A JP). 
• Resonac updated in July 2026. In August the Board resolved to deliver 80+% of shares to Resonac investors. Today the TSE approved. Crasus starts trading on Resonac ex-rights day 29-September.
• The “center” value should be determined in about a week to ten days. The estimate of asset distribution right now is 0.09 per Resonac share. There will be index effects.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: In Australia, currently two pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Middle East disruption is drawing more Asian base oils toward the Americas, reducing the surplus normally available in Asia just as seasonal demand starts to recover

• Middle East disruption is leaving the US short of the Group III volumes it normally receives, tightening its balance at a time when summer surplus would otherwise move to export markets.

• Wide US arbitrage is drawing more Asian base oils toward the Americas, adding to established Group III flows.

• Daiichi Kigenso Kagaku Kogyo Co., Ltd. (hereafter, the Company) reported Q1 FY2027/3 results with net sales of JPY 10,113 mn (+24.9% YoY), operating profit of JPY 1,152 mn (+119.4% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 1,405 mn (+9,155.8% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent (hereafter, net profit) of JPY 953 mn (versus a net loss of JPY 1 mn in the same period of the previous year).
• Operating profit increased 119.4% YoY to JPY 1,152 mn, driven by higher sales volumes mainly in the Automotive Catalyst Area, as well as lower SG&A expenses.
• The full-year forecast announced in May was based on conservative assumptions for sales volumes, and Q1 results have therefore raised expectations for an upward revision to the FY2027/3 full-year earnings forecast.

• Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported second quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $25.6 million and shipments of 3.5 million tons, reflecting lower volumes and realizations versus the first quarter.
• Full-year shipment guidance was reduced to 14.2 million to 15.4 million tons, lowering the midpoint by 1 million tons.
• The revision reflects softer metallurgical coal demand and operational disruption at the Dominian Terminal Association.

• Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA attributable to the company of $738 million, keeping it positioned within full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of approximately $2.88 billion plus or minus $75 million.
• The company highlighted geopolitical volatility, particularly in the Middle East and disruptions involving the Strait of Hormuz, as reinforcing the strategic importance of its energy infrastructure.
• Its priorities remain reducing leverage through asset sales, capturing pipeline expansion synergies, and improving organizational efficiency.

• Given the latest round of “naval warfare” between the U.S. and Iran, we were somewhat surprised that the market response has not yet been more “robust.”                
• With Iran’s apparent willingness to be the aggressor in response to Operation Economic Outcast, however, it is extremely difficult to trust this market.                                 
• Nonetheless, despite our belief that the conflict will continue through year end, at the risk of famous last words, we believe that the upside to oil prices will be limited.         

• Daiichi Kigenso Kagaku Kogyo Co., Ltd. (hereafter, the Company) reported Q1 FY2027/3 results with net sales of JPY 10,113 mn (+24.9% YoY), operating profit of JPY 1,152 mn (+119.4% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 1,405 mn (+9,155.8% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent (hereafter, net profit) of JPY 953 mn (versus a net loss of JPY 1 mn in the same period of the previous year).
• Net sales increased as all areas recorded double-digit growth.
• Sales in the Company’s core Automotive Catalyst Area rose 28.1% YoY to JPY 6,569 mn, while sales in the Energy Area, one of its Strategic Areas, surged 82.0% YoY to JPY 488 mn. 

• Copper has now entered the USD 14,000/ton range and consolidated. At these levels, companies are likely to see very positive HoH earnings, as production levels are also more H2-weighted.
• ERO Copper (ERO US), Lundin Mining (LUN CN), and Antofagasta (ANTO LN) are three names with cheap to reasonable valuations to play the copper price inflection
• Trading at 8x PE and 5.2x EV-EBITDA, ERO Copper (ERO US) is the cheapest, while Lundin Mining (LUN CN), at 14x PE and 6.1x EV-EBITDA, offers massive growth upside from Vicuna. 

• Context: The Nippon Steel (5401 JP) vs. JFE Holdings (5411 JP) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlight: Going long JFE Holdings (5411 JP) and short Nippon Steel (5401 JP) targets a 6% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently eight pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and three sectors.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• Rate hike expectations yo-yoing as the Fed meeting draws closer, impacting many of our themes
• Long Japanese Yen starts to work. Now follow through is needed

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: In Japan, currently two pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• The Petrobras – Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. second quarter 2026 results indicate a continuation of operational excellence and strong financial performance driven primarily by increased production, efficient operations, and capital discipline.
• The company reported a record oil production of 2.7 million barrels per day, exceeding its initial target of 2.5 million barrels per day, marking a 15% increase year-over-year.
• This production growth is supported by the ramp-up of new platforms such as P-78 and P-79, along with enhanced capacity utilization in existing assets, including the Almirante Tamandaré FPSO, which surpassed its original capacity by producing 270,000 barrels per day.

• CNMC Goldmine Holdings Limited (“CNMC” or “The Group”) was the first Catalist-listed gold producer on the Singapore Exchange, having commenced trading on 28 October 2011.
• It began as a gold explorer and producer, before diversifying into base metals production, including lead and zinc concentrates, in 2022.
• It has since transferred to the SGX Main Board as of 28 August 2026.

• MCG Strategic Friction & Structural Buyout Barriers: A full buyout of the remaining 49.4% of Nippon Sanso Holdings (NSH) by parent Mitsubishi Chemical Group (MCG) is financially unviable due to MCG’s constrained balance sheet and low ROE of 2.6%, which would require an outlay of over ¥1.5 trillion including control premiums. Conversely, a complete market divestment of MCG’s 50.6% stake is structurally bottlenecked by regional antitrust limits, rendering strategic acquisition by global peers impossible and leaving a complex, discounted private equity carve-out as the only realistic exit scenario.
• Antitrust Consolidation Limits and ESG ASU Capex Drag: Global consolidation in the industrial gas market is effectively capped by the FTC, European Commission, and JFTC, which have historically mandated heavy divestitures. Locally, Air Separation Units (ASUs) are highly vulnerable to localized carbon taxes and Scope 2 penalties, necessitating a strategic pivot toward corporate PPAs and Feed-in Premium (FIP) schemes to protect long-term tonnage profitability.
• Decentralized Regional Autonomy vs. Parent Capital Extraction: Despite MCG’s presence, NSH operates with independent management policies protected by five independent directors who constitute a majority of the nine-member board. Capital allocation tension is high: MCG seeks to maximize cash extraction to fund its basic materials restructuring, while NSH lifers prioritize reinvesting capital in high-purity semiconductor electronic gases and regional M&A, such as the acquisition of Coregas in Australia which drove a 18.1% revenue increase in the Asia & Oceania segment.

Highlights

• Indian tire exports rise 16% to INR 7,700 crore in April-June 2026.

• European tire exports jump 25% to INR 3,003 crore in Q1

• PCR tire exports increased 21% in value during Q1 FY27

• The export performance comes as manufacturers face a less favourable cost environment. Natural rubber prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, while crude-linked inputs, freight and logistics costs remain elevated amid geopolitical disruptions.

• Sembcorp Green Infra Limited (3395333Z IN) (SGIL) plans to raise around US$393m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, Citi, CLSA, HSBC, ICICI, IIFL, Kotak.
• SGIL is a renewable independent power producer (IPP) focused on developing, operating and maintaining utility‑scale and complex renewable projects in India.
• As per CRISIL, it was among the top 10 largest renewable IPPs in India by Operational Capacity as at March 31, 2026.

• Nearly half of BHP’s FY27 capex is directed towards copper, with operating cash flows expected to fully fund its growth ambitions through the mid-2030s.
• BHP commits USD 500 million ahead of FID, moving early to secure equipment for Escondida’s expansion.
• Options lean towards upside, with call interest concentrated at 100, while subdued IV points to limited expectations for near-term volatility.

• The SPR sits near its statutory floor with degraded withdrawal capacity, leaving the U.S. far less room to absorb the next major supply shock.
• Record U.S. production hasn’t rebuilt reserves. Gradually rising output and strong export demand mean few barrels are being diverted to SPR storage.
• Trump’s Venezuela deal is unlikely to “top out” the SPR in 2026, as heavy crude quality, damaged infrastructure, and no DOE program stand in the way.

• • Corporate production, including Thorsby, is now above 6 mboe/d.
• Our 4Q26 forecast of 5.7 mboe/d therefore looks conservative.
• • Backing out ~550 boe/d from Thorsby implies Colombia production of ~5.45 mbbl/d, above the ~5 mbbl/d reported on 7 August, despite no new wells being added.

• Targa Resources Corporation reported strong financial and operational results for the second quarter of 2026, highlighted by a 38% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, reaching $1.603 billion, and record volumes in its Permian Basin gathering and processing (G&P) segment.
• Permian volumes reached 7.2 billion cubic feet per day, representing a 14% increase compared to the prior year, despite intermittent gas shut-ins due to weak Waha pricing earlier in the quarter.
• The company’s integrated footprint—including NGL transportation, fractionation, and LPG export—also achieved record throughput levels, supported by ongoing commercial activity and an expanding portfolio of acreage dedications across the Permian.

• IPO Valuation Downsizing: Avaada Electro Limited has downsized its proposed IPO from ₹10,000 crore to ₹7,600 crore (consisting of a ₹1,600 crore fresh issue and a ₹6,000 crore offer for sale) due to investor pushback regarding a steep 90% revenue concentration with its sister independent power producer (IPP) entity, Avaada Energy, in FY26.
• Structural Overcapacity and Low Utilization: While India’s solar PV module capacity has reached 233 GW, actual industry-wide factory utilization languishes at 35% to 40% due to a severe domestic shortfall in upstream cell capacity (standing at roughly 27 GW to 30 GW).
• The DCR Premium Arbitrage: Since the domestic content requirement (DCR) cell mandate was enforced on June 1, 2026, DCR modules using local cells command a premium price of ₹21 to ₹24 per watt compared to non-DCR modules (utilizing imported cells) which trade at ₹13 to ₹15 per watt. Avaada’s transition to 3 GW of operational TOPCon cell capacity (with another 3 GW nearing commissioning) positions it to capture this spread, though long-term margins remain highly sensitive to Chinese wafer price volatility.

• A large cargo of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan in late August before heading to South Korea, set to arrive this week.
• Shipments from Taiwan typically move to China, Southeast Asia or India rather than to South Korea.
• Singapore-to-US shipments extended their surge for a second week, even as total Singapore exports declined.