Energy & Materials Sector

• A double-dose of StubWorld today: Mitsubishi Chemical (4188 JP) (MCG) is trading rich (implied stub & simple ratio) to ~51%-held Nippon Sanso Holdings (4091 JP).
• Preceding my comments on MCG and Nippon Sanso are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%

• Tat Seng grew revenue for the first time in four years, taking S$117.6m in the six months to 30 June 2026.
• Profit to owners fell 18.9% on higher tax and a larger non-controlling share.
• In June 2026 it paid out S$61.3m, moving from net cash of S$42.9m to net debt of S$3.8m. 

• ConocoPhillips reported robust second quarter 2026 results, highlighted by production exceeding guidance and strong financial performance.
• The company achieved a record Permian Basin output of over 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, contributing to total production of approximately 2.25 million barrels per day.
• Operational execution was characterized by disciplined cost management, with the company progressing ahead of its cost-reduction plan.

• SGold has commenced its 2026 surface diamond drill program at Mountauban, roughly five weeks after announcing receipt of its exploration authorization from Quebec.
• The program is ~5,000m across 29 holes, with a focus on the historic Mountauban mine area.
• This marks a critical milestone as ESAU begins systematically drill testing the district-scale property, while advancing commissioning in parallel.

• Wheaton Precious Metals reported record results for the first half of 2026, with increases in production, sales volumes, revenue, net earnings, and operating cash flow.
• Production reached a record 415,000 gold equivalent ounces, or GEOs, while sales volumes totaled 390,000 GEOs through the first two quarters, keeping the company within its full-year guidance of 860,000 to 940,000 GEOs. Second-quarter production increased 6% year over year to 202,000 GEOs, driven largely by the expanded Antamina silver stream acquired from BHP and ramp-ups at Hemlo, Fenix, Platreef, and Goose.
• Sales volumes rose 14% to 209,000 GEOs, reflecting current production and drawdowns of produced but undelivered inventories.

• Kenorland reported assay results from its maiden drill program at the Western Wabigoon Project, located in NW Ontario.
• The project is held under an option agreement with a subsidiary of Centerra Gold Inc (CG:TSX).
• The program consisted of nine holes over 4,089m testing the W2 target area.

• Amrize reported its second quarter 2026 financial results with an 8.6% increase in revenue, supported by strong demand from mega projects in data centers, energy, advanced manufacturing, and infrastructure modernization.
• The company achieved 6.7% organic growth and an increase in net income by 14.4%, alongside a 5.8% rise in adjusted EBITDA, reflecting volume growth and pricing improvements, particularly in aggregates and cement.
• Diluted earnings per share grew 14.7%, with adjusted diluted EPS expanding 8.6%.

Key points (machine generated)

• SALA Corporation reports record highs in operating and net profit for the first half of FY11/26, despite a slight decrease in consolidated net sales.
• The company operates in six segments and forecasts a 3.4% increase in net sales and a 5.7% rise in operating profit for FY11/26, driven by growth in Housing and Car Life Support.
• SALA is restructuring its pre-owned housing business to establish a strong store network and aims for significant growth by FY11/30, positioning Housing as a key business pillar.

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• In this edition: • Shell | Locks in scale: ARC closed, Tri Star fully owned soon • E-commerce & Logistics | France raised another hurdle for Chinese ultra-fast fashion imports

Key points (machine generated)

• TODA KOGYO CORP., founded in 1823, has reformed its earnings structure and is positioned for growth in the AI sector.
• The company specializes in fine particle technology, particularly iron oxides used in various industries.
• Celebrating its 200th anniversary in November 2023, TODA KOGYO also produces materials for MLCCs and lithium-ion batteries.

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• Toyobo delivered a solid Q1 FY3/27, consistently buoyed by Industrial Films, with particular strength in MLCC mold-release films and SRF.
• Concurrently, OP in the Resins & Chemicals segment (within Environmental & Functional Materials) surged 90.2% YoY.
• While elevated naphtha prices stemming from Middle East tensions have led management to guide for a 17.6% YoY decline in FY OP, robust underlying fundamentals and strategic price pass- throughs should keep operating cash flow resilient.

• Supply disruptions and higher freight costs lifted iron ore in August, but squeezed mill margins and weak demand could limit further upside and trigger renewed price pressure.
• Call buildup at the 100 and 105 strikes signals improving upside sentiment, while unwinding beyond 105 points to limited conviction in a sustained rally.
• Managed money’s positioning turned more defensive in August, as greater short exposure and reduced long exposure signaled weaker conviction in further iron ore price upside.

• Valeura Energy Inc (TSX: VLE) has established a high-cash-generation operational base centered on shallow-water offshore assets in the Gulf of Thailand, narrowing FY26 production guidance to 20.0–22.0 mbbl/d while maintaining strong operational resilience.
• Near-term equity catalysts are anchored by the accelerated redevelopment of the Wassana field targeting first oil in early 2Q27 (expanding field capacity from ~2.8 mbbl/d to ~10.0 mbbl/d and boosting FY27 cash flow by US$20–25 million), the upcoming Bussabong natural gas Final Investment Decision (FID), and exploration drilling on the DEF prospect (Licence G1/48).
• Trading at 2.4x EV/EBITDA and 1.2x EV/Sales—a marked discount to international E&P peers VAALCO Energy (6.3x EV/EBITDA) and Karoon Energy (3.7x EV/EBITDA)—Valeura combines attractive asset-level valuation backing (Core NAV and ReNAV) with substantial balance sheet firepower of up to ~US$640 million in acquisition funding capacity.

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• Ecora recorded its H1/26 results after pre-reporting portfolio contributions of $31.3M, up +75% YoY driven by base metals.
• This growth translated to a +509% YoY increase in adjusted earnings and a strengthened balance sheet.
• Net debt declined to $74.9M, and strong cash flow is expected to drive further de-levering in H2, providing flexibility for further acquisitions.

• Yesterday’s signed Share Purchase Agreement (SPA) to sell Engro’s entire 56.19% stake in EPCL to LOTCHEM for Rs 19.7 billion ($70.95 million) marks the next phase of Engro Holdings’ active capital recycling. The transaction faces a 15% capital gains tax under Section 37A, representing roughly Rs 1.95 billion in tax leakage, as Pakistan’s tax framework offers no participation exemption for capital gains on listed subsidiaries.
• While the transaction does not involve direct horizontal overlap—since LOTCHEM produces PTA and EPCL produces PVC—the deal faces a Phase-II Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) review that will likely take 90 to 120 days, mirroring the highly conditional 18-month review of the $400 million PTCL-Telenor merger completed on October 1, 2025.
• The proceeds are highly unlikely to be fully paid out as a special dividend. Engro is conserving cash to expand its telecom tower infrastructure (following its massive Rs 133 billion / $475 million Shariah-compliant acquisition of Deodar in December 2025) and to target private power transmission/distribution assets (DISCOs), where severe structural risks such as high transmission losses and circular debt present significant headwinds.

• NASDAQ materially expands investor access. 
• FRSPF pursued the listing partly in response to US institutions that wanted a major exchange security before considering an investment, effectively removing a barrier to participation for a potentially larger pool of capital.
• Since ringing the NASDAQ Opening Bell, trading activity has increased sharply across the company’s listings, with daily turnover at times reaching US$15-20M and cumulative volume since the event exceeding its prior lifetime trading history.

• Jiangxi Tongbo Technology is an electrolytic copper foil solutions provider in China, specializing in high-performance electrolytic copper foil for AI and high-performance computing.
• Jiangxi Tongbo Technology established partnerships with seven of the world’s top 10 lithium battery manufacturers and accumulated 101 patents.
• For six months ended June 30, 2026, revenue was RMB3,403,272 thousand and gross profit was RMB276,156 thousand.

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• Keppel Infrastructure Trust (KIT) shifted from stable, bond-like assets to an active management model for growth potential.
• KIT’s portfolio includes essential infrastructure assets, providing resilience and steady distributions through economic cycles.
• KIT achieved total returns of approximately 13% in the first half of 2026, demonstrating value creation across market cycles.

• 2Q26 WI production averaged 223 boe/d, resulting in a broadly unchanged cash position of approximately C$2 mm at end‑June.
• Production is set to increase further in 4Q26 with full contributions from Tariki‑1A (1.1–1.25 mmcf/d plus 15–20 bbl/d of condensate, net to NZE’s 50% WI) and Tariki‑5A (~2.5 mmcf/d net).
• On the oil side, activity will focus on debottlenecking and workovers.

• Strategic National Champion in Upstream E&P: PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (PTTEP) serves as Thailand’s upstream national flagship, operating crucial domestic assets including the G1/61 (Erawan) and G2/61 (Bongkot) fields, which supply approximately 60% of the nation’s natural gas consumption under long-term gas sales agreements.
• Exceptional Balance Sheet Resilience and High Cash Returns: PTTEP maintains an outstanding financial resilience profile (Smartscore 5/5), characterized by robust EBITDA margins consistently exceeding 69-74%, low debt leverage, strong annual operating cash flow generation (THB 146.9B in 2025), and a highly attractive dividend yield of 5.79%.
• Disciplined Long-Term Growth and Energy Transition: Supported by a USD 33.3B 5-year investment plan (2026–2030), PTTEP is advancing high-impact international development projects in Malaysia (SK410B Lang Lebah), the Middle East (Oman, UAE), and Mozambique LNG, alongside pioneering carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiatives targeting commercial operation by 2028.

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• While the SPX remains bullish above 7580-7629 support, we’re becoming near-term cautious on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and we remain near-term cautious on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and A.I. areas.
• As discussed last week, we believe the Aug4 and Aug12 gap fills suggest more consolidation is likely; not only have the odds increased that A.I. areas test their July lows… 
• …but the lower highs that have formed could be an early sign that they could break below their July lows in SOXX, CHAT, NCLD, DTCR, and EUV

• Our trading range peak for the October NYMEX contract has obviously been breached, but we suggest the jury remains out in terms of any substantial further upside.              
• We have been recommending that if October hit roughly $88.00 per barrel, we would sell small volumes of December with tight stops; we hope we have not inflicted much damage.                            
• We will hold fast for the time being to see if the market will move much higher, or if the peak will end up only modestly above our previous parameter.       

• OMG reported eleven holes from Wenot, headlined by 5.12 g/t Au over 40.5m (incl.
• 11.29 g/t Au over 10.4m) in hole 193 and 2.68 g/t Au over 40.7m in hole 197W.
• Every hole hit multiple gold zones, with hole 193 returning 11 discrete zones well above the 0.3 g/t open pit cut-off.

• RaaS Research Group senior analyst Issam Eid interviews Mastermyne Group Managing Director and CEO Jeff Whiteman.

• Precious metals rallied sharply in August on a shift in Fed rate cut expectations following softer U.S. data, albeit moderating in recent days, with gold up 9.3%, silver up 14.8%, and copper up 1.1%.
• Mining equities delivered outsized leverage, with the GDX up 33.0%, GDXJ up 34.1%, SIL up 32.7%, and COPX up 17.7%, vs. the TSX up 3.0% and the S&P 500 up 2.8%.
• M&A activity displayed signs of acceleration on stronger metal prices, headlined by OceanaGold’s A$776M acquisition of Ausgold Limited and Bunker Hill Mining’s merger with Silver47 Exploration.

• Zhe Jiang Hai Liang Co., Ltd. is a global provider of copper-based products used in HVAC, industrial, lithium-ion battery, PCB, and AI data center applications.
• The company reported RMB83.3 billion revenue in 2025 and net profit growth of +61.9% year-on-year in 2025.
• Net cash used in operating activities was RMB(6,146,850) in 5M 2026, with a net decrease in cash and cash equivalents of RMB(664,404).

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• Evolution’s latest mineral/royalty acquisition, which closed August 20, 2026, bolsters the cash flow contribution from high-margin production. 
• The acquisition added 3,420 net mineral acres in the Midland Basin for a total purchase price of $16 million.
• Funding was provided by ~$12.4 million of net proceeds from an August 18, 2026, secondary common stock offering (4.255 million shares) plus ~$3.6 million of cash. 

• In this edition: • Fugro | nominates Mr. Emiel Jongerius as new CFO • E-commerce & Logistics | French customs data show 30-40% drop in low-value non-EU parcels • Dutch retail sales | consumer demand remained resilient in July • Dutch CPI | rose to 3.3% YoY in August

• In this insight, I discuss about SK Innovation (096770 KS) and four other stocks in KOSPI that could experience additional selling with end of mandatory lock-up periods in September.
• The end of these lock-up periods could potentially result in additional selling by insiders which could negatively impact the share prices of these companies (on average) in the coming weeks.
• SK Innovation recently announced its merger plans with SK IE Technology (361610 KS) which I viewed negatively due to negative impact on SK Innovation’s financials. 

• WTI fell 4.2% in the week ending 28/Aug despite U.S. sanctions on Iran, as recovering oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz eased the geopolitical premium.
• Energy ETFs mostly fell with WTI, but clean energy held up, showing investors treated the sanctions-driven selloff as a short-term event risk.
• Equinor marks a firm shift back to oil and gas, but its power strategy and state ownership still leave capital allocation questions unresolved.

• The SP TSX Composite is the headline benchmark for the Canadian equity market. It has no fixed constituent count, with membership determined purely by size and liquidity thresholds. 
• In this insight, we present our final expectations for the September 2026 index rebal event.
• We expect one ADD and zero DELs for  SP TSX Composite index for the September 2026 rebal.

• YPF’s 2Q26 earnings strengthened sharply as shale scale, lower lifting costs and record refinery throughput amplified favorable pricing, driving EBITDA to US$2.8bn and net leverage to 1.19x.
• Liquidity improved to adequate and free cash flow reached US$824mn, but rising capex shifts the credit test toward preserving balance-sheet gains as shale and LNG investment accelerates.
• We move to Neutral on valuation and prefer the secured 9.500% 2031s, where higher spread and yield with shorter duration improve risk-adjusted value versus the 2034s.

• We had discussed various signals for gold and see some of them reversing at the tail end of the summer as we had discussed on the Precious Metals portal.
• COMEX Gold recently rebounded from lows in the 4000, especially in early August.
• Directional option strategies on MAR27 COMEX Gold could help investors position for the next move.

• Ryan Detrick at Carson posted this on X recently. Yes, September is the worst month of the year for the S&P 500.
• But seasonality is a starting point, not a conclusion.
• Detrick screened for years with a positive August and a year to date gain between 10% and 17.5%, which is where we sit now at 12.8% with August up 3.0%.

• It remains to be seen whether the latest U.S.-Iran military strikes were “one-off,” or the tip of the iceberg of a renewed and intensified military conflict.              
• The military exchange appeared to be “measured” at this time, however, and we believe the oil market’s response was “proportional.”                            
• We see no reason to amend our long-standing and previously delineated trading range of roughly $75.00-$88.00 per barrel, basis the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract.      

• 2Q26 production of 627 bbl/d and the end‑June cash position were previously disclosed.
• Criterium has executed a definitive Gas Sales Agreement with PGN (PT Perusahaan Gas Negara), securing gas sales through 2040.
• The contract includes a take‑or‑pay commitment and a sales price at the upper end of the US$6.5–7.6/mcf range.

• ATI, a global manufacturer of specialized materials and components, reported strong results for its second quarter of 2026, highlighting growth across several business segments but also presenting some challenges related to timing and market dynamics.
• The company delivered adjusted EBITDA of $284 million, exceeding the high end of its guidance by $29 million and representing a 37% year-over-year increase to its strongest quarterly EBITDA since 2007.
• Revenue grew 11% year-over-year to $1.3 billion, supported by a record backlog of $4.4 billion, which was up 18% from the prior year and 7% sequentially.

• Welcome to Curator’s Cut – a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,600+ insights shared on Smartkarma.
• In this cut, we revisit soft commodity risks as El Niño probabilities climb, review Alibaba’s AI-driven placement from different angles, and survey the wave of contested deals on the ASX.
• Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.

• Since the announcement of the US$0.7 billion secondary offering, Lintec Corp (7966 JP)’s shares have declined 3.7% to the undisturbed price of JPY5,730 per share (20 August).
• It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Lintec’s share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.
• The offering will likely be priced on 1 September. Since 2021, the average large Japanese placement has tended to generate positive returns.

• Shenzhen Capchem Technology Co., Ltd. is a PRC-based provider of electronic chemicals and functional materials, specializing in battery chemicals. The company aims to optimize its capital structure and enhance core.
• The company is ranked second largest battery electrolyte provider globally in 2025 and first for capacitor chemicals by revenue from 2020 to 2025.
• For the six months ended June 30, 2026, revenue was RMB7,455,314 thousand and profit for the period was RMB998,900 thousand.

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• Acutaas’s 75%-owned Indichem has inaugurated a semiconductor-materials facility in Gongju, South Korea. 
• Separately, the board has approved up to INR  212 crore for an electronic-grade chemicals plant in Gujarat with proposed capacity of up to 81,000 tonnes per annum by FY28.
• The company is assembling an end-to-end model: cost-efficient chemical synthesis in India, followed by ultra-high-purity refining, testing, customer access and qualification in South Korea.

• Just when it appeared the “relative calm” would continue, the U.S. and Iran have resumed military strikes.
• At this juncture, however, we see no reason to amend our previously delineated trading range for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract of roughly $75.00-$88.00 per barrel.          
• However, given Friday’s surge in value, we consider NYMEX RBOB cracks to be overvalued from a fundamental, seasonal basis as we move into September.           

• The semiconductor pipeline has expanded to 15+ products and 10+ customers; Jubilant has also agreed to acquire 40% of Zettaone for INR 189.2 crore.
• Electronic chemicals can offer higher purity-led value addition, stickier qualifications and lower exposure to commodity chemical cycles.
• The semiconductor optionality is more tangible, but remains too early to underwrite as a major earnings driver without disclosed revenue or commercial volumes.

• Frontline PLC (NYSE: FRO) is capitalizing on structural tanker market tightness driven by global ton-mile expansion, sustained trade route realignments, and disciplined vessel supply growth, achieving its strongest operating profitability since 2004 with daily VLCC spot time charter equivalent (TCE) rates exceeding $100,000/day.
• The company maintains a high-specification, scrubber-fitted fleet across Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), Suezmax, and LR2/Aframax segments, combining low cash breakeven operating leverage with a balanced commercial posture that secures ~30% of VLCC capacity under 1-year time charters while exposing 70% to spot freight super-spikes.
• Frontline offers compelling equity upside trading at 6.6x P/E and 7.2x EV/EBITDA, supported by robust balance sheet refinancing at reduced margins, accretive fleet renewal, and an active variable dividend policy that has delivered $2.58 per share in distributions across the first half of 2026.

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• Louisiana-Pacific Corporation reported second quarter 2026 results marked by contrasting performance across its Siding and Oriented Strand Board (OSB) businesses amid a challenging housing market environment.
• Total net sales reached $664 million, down $90 million year-over-year, while EBITDA declined $63 million to $79 million.
• The reduction largely stemmed from lower OSB prices and volumes driven by soft North and South American demand, partly offset by growth in the Siding segment.

• Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation reported strong financial and operational results for the second quarter of 2026, affirming its focus on disciplined capital allocation and high-quality asset management.
• The company recorded an adjusted net income of approximately $184 million, or $0.99 per diluted share, alongside adjusted EBITDAX of $370 million.
• Capital expenditure for drilling and completion was $125 million, representing a reinvestment rate of 34% of adjusted EBITDAX, the lowest since 2022.

• The Financial Rationale is a Debt Shifting Play: While the geographic proximity of Daud Khel and Chenki (only 80 km apart) offers real freight optimization, the primary driver for a complete MLCF-PIOC merger is capital restructuring. MLCF is using the merger to legally upstream Pioneer’s robust cash flows to service the PKR 75 billion syndicated Shariah-compliant Musharakah facility used to buy its 88.28% stake in Pioneer.
• Provincial Royalty Disparities Damage Margins: The Punjab government’s 6% royalty on the ex-factory price of cement translates to a PKR 1,350 to PKR 1,400 per ton penalty, placing Punjab-based plants at a PKR 1,000 per ton cost disadvantage against KPK-based producers. While the Supreme Court’s 2021 “Negative Area” ruling protects existing assets by banning new entrants in Khushab and Chakwal, the royalty regime remains a severe profitability drain.
• Severe Minority Shareholder Exploitation: The Saigol family’s capital allocation track record reveals a persistent pattern of subordinating minority shareholders to fund the parent group’s diversification. This is critically highlighted by Pioneer’s Board proposing a PKR 4 billion loan facility to MLCF in July 2026 and MLCF recommending a nil dividend for FY26 despite posting a record consolidated profit after tax of PKR 12.56 billion.

• Matador Resources Company reported near-record adjusted free cash flow of $303 million in the second quarter of 2026, of which $200 million was allocated toward reducing debt acquired during the purchase of federal leases.
• This repayment lowered total bank debt to just under $1 billion, with ongoing efforts to further reduce leverage throughout the year.
• The company secured backing from a syndicate of 19 banks, reflecting strong lender confidence and an increased borrowing capacity for future opportunities if they arise.

• Market Leadership in Tire Circularity: Tinna Rubber and Infrastructure Limited (TNR) is India’s leading end-of-life tire (ELT) recycler, commanding over 60% market share in the domestic crumb rubber modified bitumen (CRMB) sector, backed by a pan-India manufacturing footprint of 6 plants and an expanding overseas presence in Oman.
• Strong Multi-Year Compounding: TNR delivered robust financial growth with 3-year revenue and net income CAGRs of 22.70% and 34.34% respectively, reaching FY2026 revenue of INR 5,458.07m and net income of INR 528.47m, while recent quarterly gross margins expanded toward 39.81% on an improving high-margin product mix.
• Capital-Intensive Growth Transition: Free cash flow remains in negative territory (-INR 621.95m in FY2026) due to multi-year capex programs expanding crushing capacity from 185,000 MT toward 250,000 MT and scaling high-value adjacencies including reclaimed carbon black (RCB), masterbatches, and polymer composites.

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• Chord Energy reported its second quarter 2026 financial and operational results, with notable performance on several fronts alongside some challenges.
• The company delivered adjusted free cash flow of $414 million, exceeding expectations, and returned 54% of that ($220 million) to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
• The balance sheet strengthened, with normalized leverage declining below 1.5 turns, enabling the company to target returning at least 75% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders beginning in the third quarter.

• Valvoline Inc. reported third quarter fiscal 2026 results reflecting steady growth amid a dynamic macroeconomic and supply chain environment.
• System-wide store sales increased 19%, surpassing $1 billion in a quarter for the first time, with same-store sales growing 8%.
• This growth was driven by higher ticket sizes—contributed by net pricing, premiumization, and penetration of non-oil change-related (NOCR) services—accounting for three-quarters of the sales comp.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• Warsh’s “hawkishness” provides an opportunity to pick up precious metals and commodities
• The Chinese platforms follow their Western counterparts in the raise and spend game

• Context: The Nucor Corp (NUE US) vs. Steel Dynamics (STLD US) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlight: Going long Steel Dynamics (STLD US) and short Nucor Corp (NUE US) targets a 4% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Transocean Holdings plc reported its second quarter 2026 results reflecting strong operational execution amid a tightening deepwater drilling market.
• The company surpassed its guidance for both revenue and costs, delivering an adjusted EBITDA margin of 32% and a fleet uptime of 98%, underscoring effective operational management.
• Revenue for the quarter reached $966 million, with operating and maintenance expenses below guidance, mainly due to the timing and deferral of maintenance activities.

Highlights

• Exports remain resilient and increasingly value-added

• Domestic raw-material supply is becoming the main structural constraint

• The outlook is positive for manufacturing but dependent on supply-side reform: 

• Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.
• There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US remains above its 2-month base and MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) remains above its 5.5+ month base.
• We still see plenty of opportunity in non-A.I. names, and that remains our primary focus. On ACWI-US, we want to see $156.50 support hold on any pullback (the breakout level)

• Structural Low-Cost Advantage & Feedstock Integration: LyondellBasell Industries (L1YB34 BR) maintains a resilient competitive moat anchored by its extensive North American natural gas liquids (NGL/ethane) feedstock advantage, highly integrated global olefins and polyolefins value chain, and market-leading proprietary process technology licensing (Spheripol, Spherizone, Hostalen).
• Cyclical Bottoming and Earnings Re-acceleration: Following a prolonged petrochemical downcycle and substantial restructuring write-downs through FY2025, operating margins and profitability demonstrated a sharp rebound in H1 2026, driven by expanding polymer spreads, supply-side discipline, fixed-cost reductions via the Cash Improvement Plan, and the strategic rationalization of legacy European assets.
• Compelling Valuation with Elite Capital Allocation: Trading at an attractive 8.2x EV/EBITDA and 1.9x P/B, LyondellBasell pairs trough-cycle cash generation with an exceptional shareholder return track record (Smartkarma Dividend Score: 5/5), providing institutional investors with substantial total return asymmetry as global chemical supply-demand fundamentals normalize.

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• GoldArc Resources Limited (ASX:GA8) is a junior gold company that is progressing both exploration and production activities at its Leonora projects.
• The focus for GA8 in 2026 has been to support the pathway to production via two joint ventures (JV) across its projects.
• These JVs are capital-light options to support small scale mining and if they are successful in generating cash flows, will enable GA8 to significantly scale up exploration activities across its projects to drive further resource growth and discovery.

• Kinetik reported record second quarter results for 2026, driven by strong operational execution, system performance, and favorable commodity prices.
• Adjusted EBITDA reached $281 million, marking a significant year-over-year increase, supported by flat processed natural gas volumes at 1.74 billion cubic feet per day despite an estimated 250 million cubic feet per day of curtailments related to Waha pricing.
• Distributable cash flow stood at $195 million and free cash flow at $105 million, reflecting strong cash generation.

• The International Chemicals Limited (ICL) reported its second quarter 2026 results, evidencing growth in sales, adjusted EBITDA, and net income despite elevated raw material costs and currency headwinds.
• Consolidated sales increased by 17% year-over-year to $2.1 billion, supported by higher prices across potash, bromine, phosphate fertilizers, and specialty food ingredients.
• Adjusted EBITDA rose 28% to $448 million, reflecting improved operational efficiency amid a challenging cost environment, including a significant surge in sulfur prices—a key raw material for phosphate products—by over 200% annually.

• SM Energy reported its second quarter 2026 results as the first full quarter operating as a combined entity following its recent merger.
• The company generated $467 million in adjusted free cash flow and returned $137 million to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases.
• It has actioned close to 95% of its $375 million run-rate merger synergy target, recently raised, demonstrating progress in integration efforts, particularly reflected in lower general and administrative costs.

• Severe Liquidity Pressures and Going-Concern Warning: As of late August 2026, Ocean Power Technologies (OPT) is operating under a newly disclosed going concern qualification issued on August 21, 2026. Despite having $8.7 million in cash and equivalents as of April 30, 2026, the company’s massive $22.7 million operating cash burn in fiscal year 2026, coupled with $10.4 million in short-term convertible notes, leaves its liquidity runway dangerously short.
• Divergent Adoption Curves and Backlog Realization: While OPT’s defense-focused pivot has driven its backlog to a record $19.8 million—anchored by the $6.5 million multi-PowerBuoy contract with the U.S. Coast Guard and DHS—the actual conversion of this backlog into top-line revenue remains slow and highly lumpy. Top-line revenue actually declined from $5.9 million in FY25 to $3.7 million in FY26.
• Structural Margins and Execution Bottlenecks: The company’s business model transition to Data-as-a-Service (DaaS) and Robotics-as-a-Service (RaaS) is bottlenecked by astronomical capital requirements to build out lease fleets. OPT’s gross margin collapsed to -158.4% in FY26 (representing a $5.9 million gross loss), revealing that low manufacturing scale and high direct deployment costs are severely punishing the company’s unit economics.

In this installment of engageIR’s corporate insights, we join the management team of Geo Energy Resources at its 1HFY2026 earnings call held on 26 August 2026, 10am.

View the transcript here – https://on.skr.ma/4zCKy1X 
Passcode: 1H72N1&3

• Crude oil futures were trading lower for a third session on Wednesday, but steadied later in the session as tensions remain high after the US announced a new round of economic sanctions against Iran on Monday.
• Oct26 ICE  Brent futures were 1.2% lower at $87.54/b (2032 BST), while Oct26 NYMEX  WTI was at $81.99/b , down 0.5% changed versus Tuesday’s settle.
• However, benchmarks pared most of the earlier losses that saw Brent print a low of $85.41/b as the situation in the Middle East remains highly volatile, while a lower-than-expected US crude inventory build helped to steady markets.

• Revenue fell 28.5% and profit for the period fell 22.4%, to US$15.6m, which on that statement alone is an ordinary down period.
• But total assets rose US$240.6m, cash fell US$46.1m and operating cash flow went negative, each moving several times harder than profit did.
• The period’s event was the balance sheet growing on issued shares and vendor credit, and the cash going out to build it.

• Strategic North American Transformation: Minera Alamos Inc. (TSX: MAI) has successfully transitioned from an early-stage Mexican developer into a diversified, multi-asset North American intermediate gold producer through the integration of the producing Pan Gold Mine in Nevada, alongside its low-capex Mexican development foundation (Santana, Cerro de Oro, La Fortuna) and near-term US growth projects (Copperstone, Gold Rock).
• Balance Sheet Optimization and De-Risking: The closure of a US$75 million syndicated Revolving Credit Facility (RCF) with Scotiabank and National Bank of Canada retired higher-cost merchant prepayments and forward sales commitments, restoring 100% spot gold price participation, extending debt maturities to May 2029, and fully funding organic growth without near-term equity dilution.
• Compelling Multi-Stage Re-Rating Runway: Trading at C$6.54, MAI offers institutional investors a high-leverage production expansion profile targeting 150,000–200,000 ounces per annum over the medium term; current valuation at approximately 0.55x P/NAV represents a substantial discount to intermediate North American peer averages of 0.75x–0.85x P/NAV.

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• Leverage fell sharply and short-term debt was cut by more than half YoY, materially improving PEMEX’s refinancing profile.
• Cash generation is still not self-sustaining, with pre-contribution net FCF negative and supplier balances rising sequentially.
• Most of the curve now trades near one-year OAS lows, leaving the clearest value in the 2035s and, for duration, the 2050s.

• CF Industries Holdings, Inc. reported robust operational and financial results for the first half and second quarter of 2026, reflecting strong demand amid a tight global nitrogen fertilizer market.
• The company achieved adjusted EBITDA of $2.2 billion in the first half, supported by near-full utilization of available ammonia capacity (approximately 98%) and a focus on safety, with incident rates well below industry averages.
• North American agricultural demand remained solid, enabling CF Industries to meet customer needs across retail, wholesale, and cooperative channels.

• What you need to know: • LVG reported high-grade, near-surface drill results from Area C, its planned initial open-pit at the Imwelo Project, headlined by 28.71 g/t Au over 2.75m and 12.20 g/t Au over 4.5m.
• • Both intercepts start shallow (21m and 32m) in weathered material, with individual vein samples up to 142.90 g/t and 124.83 g/t Au. • Whole-core from the eight holes are undergoing weathered-ore metallurgical testwork to finalize the Area C flowsheet.
• • The work feeds directly into pit design, grade control and plant configuration as Imwelo advances through construction.

• FY26 was a defining year that turned capability into proof.
• Stratmann described a year spent building and deploying buoy networks and drone fleets, noting the business is not software-as-a-service since every system must be built, installed, and operated.
• Backlog finished the year at a record $19.8 million, up 58% Y/Y and more than five times annual 2026 revenue.

• It appears the oil market is coming around to our view that in terms of a credible deal between Iran and the U.S., “we’ll believe it when we see it.”             
• In addition, the White House stated that “all options remain in the table” when it comes to Iran.                          
• Nonetheless, we would still not rule out Iran retaining some degree of “control” over the Strait of Hormuz, with or without Oman, with the U.S. tacitly accepting the “new normal.”     

• 2Q26 production averaged 4,902 boe/d, broadly in line with expectations (1Q26: 4,715 boe/d).
• Arrow reported a working‑capital position of US$14.5 mm at end‑June, including US$28.5 mm of cash.
• This reflects an improvement of ~US$9 mm versus end‑March, driven by ~US$14 mm of free cash flow generated in 2Q26.

• Glenwood Credit, a Korean PE firm, is looking to sell its stake in Silicon2 (257720 KS) , which it holds through a special purpose vehicle Silk Investment Purpose. 
• Silicon2 is a global distribution company that sell products from South Korean cosmetic brands mainly across Europe, America and other parts of Asia.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Revenue and margin: Q2 revenue rose 28% to C$267m, and EBITDA rose 23% to C$170m; both mines now sit on eight-year reserve mine plans filed in June.
• Operational inflection: Kiena production up 28% year-on-year; full-year production and cost guidance reaffirmed, with output and free cash flow weighted to H2.
• At C$36, WDO trades on 11.0x FY26e earnings and 5.3x EV/EBITDA, against C$391m cash, no debt and C$871m FY26e EBITDA.

• Ambani Orgochem Limited (Ticker: AMBANIOR IN) has delivered strong top-line expansion, with revenue growing from INR 1,362.02M in FY24 to INR 2,436.50M in FY26 (a 33.74% CAGR), driven by increasing adoption of water-based specialty chemicals, acrylic emulsions, and organic peroxides.
• Despite top-line momentum and gross margin expansion to 23.83% in FY26, profitability and cash conversion remain fragile; the company recorded a net margin of just 0.55% (INR 13.34M net profit) in FY26 after a net loss in FY25 (-INR 8.55M), while Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) remained negative at -INR 166.87M due to working capital drag.
• At a last price of INR 110.10, the stock trades at an elevated trailing P/E multiple of 104.9x, presenting an asymmetric risk-reward profile for institutional investors given the razor-thin net margin buffer, ongoing cash burn, and execution risks surrounding greenfield expansion.

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• Zhejiang Rongtai Electric Material Co., Ltd. is the global leader in mica-based composite materials for new energy applications, holding the top market share. The company expanded into robotics components and.
• The company is a global leader in mica-based composite materials for new energy applications, ranking first globally and in China in 2025. It held 283 patents and sold products in.
• Revenue reached RMB1,375,754 thousand in 2025, with profit for the year at RMB282,607 thousand. Cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB367,538 thousand by June 30, 2026.

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• The absorption of SK IE Technology (SKIET) by SK Innovation is a tactical containment strategy designed to prevent SKIET’s standalone credit and refinancing risks from triggering a group-wide downgrade, taking on 100% of the operational losses in exchange for an estimated 60 billion won in annual cost synergies and a path to EBITDA breakeven in two years.
• The merger’s pricing directly exploits a narrow regulatory gap, utilizing the legacy market-value-based formula just days after the National Assembly passed the new “fair-value” merger amendment on August 20, 2026, effectively locking in an ultra-low valuation of 14,783 won per share for SKIET before the law takes effect in late 2026.
• Deleveraging has replaced market share as the core top-down KPI dictated by the SK SUPEX Council, driving aggressive asset optimization—including the sale of the Changzhou plant to SEMCORP for 88.8 billion won and the $2.6 billion CPS buyback of SK On—to manage intense rating pressures from Moody’s (Ba1) and S&P (BBB-).

Highlights

• Physical premiums compressed as Asian grades lose ground against increasingly competitive African rubber

• Falling exchange stocks provides a cushion despite weak downstream demand and cautious procurement

• June rubber import and tire export rebound signal improved buying after May’s caution.

• Sailfish reported Q2 revenue of $1.3M (+87% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $0.5M.
• These were below our expectations due to Mako mining outside of the San Albino area and due to one-time bonus payments.
• The $168M sale to OR Royalties closed in early April, driving a $134.1M gain and $136.6M of net income.

• Geographic Capital Flight Accelerated by Fiscal Drags: Shell’s capital reallocation from Europe to North America is structurally complete. The UK’s 78% marginal tax rate under the reformed Energy Profits Levy (EPL) has degraded North Sea project IRRs from 18-20% to a sub-hurdle 10-12%. Consequently, capital is being permanently redirected to the US Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, and Canada.
• The ARC Resources Acquisition Underpins the Return to Value: The $16.4 billion acquisition of Canada’s ARC Resources, set to close in Q3 2026, represents a major strategic pivot back to fossil-fuel dominance. The deal boosts Shell’s Integrated Gas & Upstream 2030 production CAGR from 1% to 4%, securing decades of low-carbon-intensity shale feed gas for the LNG Canada export terminal while bypassing the low-return profiles of European retail power and renewables.
• Wael Sawan’s Relentless Return-Driven Mandate: Under CEO Wael Sawan, capital discipline is absolute. Projects must meet strict double-digit hurdle rates of 11-12% for LNG and deepwater, compared to the previously accepted 5-8% for renewables. Structural cost-cutting is on track to reach a cumulative $5-7 billion by 2028, with $5.8 billion already achieved, freeing up cash flow to support the target of returning 40-50% of CFFO to shareholders.

• Maritana Minerals Limited (ASX:MRT) is an emerging junior gold producer with 1.9moz of gold resources located around the Kalgoorlie and Coolgardie regions of Western Australia.
• MRT is underway on the Black Swan Processing Hub (BSPH) development, which transforms the company into a standalone gold producer.
• The study detailed production of 102kozpa, which at the current gold price would result in significant cash flows.

• Coeur Mining reported record second-quarter financial results, largely driven by the full quarter contribution from its recently acquired New Afton and Rainy River operations.
• The company achieved quarterly revenue exceeding $1 billion for the first time, along with record adjusted EBITDA of $478 million and free cash flow of $388 million.
• The ending cash balance surpassed $1 billion, highlighting a strengthened balance sheet that supports ongoing exploration and organic growth investments.

• On 25 August, SK Innovation (096770 KS) announced a merger with SK IE Technology (361610 KS) (SK IET).
• I believe this will have a negative impact on SK Innovation and a neutral impact on SK IET.
• The biggest concern is the fact that SK IET has been generating continued net losses in the past several years and this could negatively impact SK Innovations’ financial structure. 

• LME cash-to-3M copper spread has eased sharply, but tight nearby supply and concentrated positioning keep the market vulnerable to renewed squeezes.
• Copper options show a firmer upside tilt as CVOL and skew rise, while call-heavy positioning contrasts with cautious managed-money positioning.
• The Government of India’s HCL OFS offers up to 6% stake at INR 514, with non-retail bidding opening Tuesday (25/Aug) and retail bidding Wednesday (26/Aug).

• The company trades at a 50% discount to its royalty-based asset value, with royalty receivables covering market cap.
• The strategic review aims to unlock royalty asset value, potentially increasing share price, with minimal employees remaining.
• A large fund with a substantial stake is aligned to realize value, influencing the strategic review process.

• • 2Q26 production averaged 1,743 boe/d, broadly in line with expectations.
• • The transportation dispute that has shut in ~400 boe/d from the Mechanicsburg and Greens Creek fields continues.
• We continue to assume a resolution by end‑3Q26, with production resuming in 4Q26.

• The oil market continued its selloff under the belief that a return to the negotiating table is likely, but again, we will believe it when we see it.            
• • Our energy equities may be telling a bit different story, however, generally holding up better than the commodity thus far.                          
• While the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract remains in our “no-man’s land,” we are buyers in December if October falls below $80.00 per barrel toward our $75.00 per barrel trough.      

• Crude oil futures retreated for a second session on Tuesday amid a relatively calm reaction to the latest round of US sanctions on Iran, although regional tensions remain high.
• Oct26 ICE Brent futures were 3.9% lower at $88.53/b (2030 BST), while Oct26 NYMEX  WTI was at $82.24/b , down 3.3% versus Monday’s settle.
• The US Treasury Department has broadened the list of entities and tankers sanctioned by Washington as part of Operation Economic Outcast, which plans to isolate Tehran from the global financial system.

• Occidental Petroleum Corporation’s second quarter 2026 results demonstrated operational and financial progress, underscoring the company’s pursuit of sustainable cash flow growth driven by capital discipline, cost efficiency, and resource optimization.
• Production averaged 1.43 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, surpassing guidance, predominantly due to strong performance in U.S. onshore assets such as the Permian Basin and the Gulf of America.
• However, international volumes were somewhat hindered by geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East.

• RIO received approval of its Modified Environmental Impact Study (MEIA) at Condestable on August 21st, concluding a 14-month process.
• The approval permits an increase in throughput to 10Ktpd from the current 8.4Ktpd and extends the environmentally approved mine life by a further decade.
• It also authorizes a dry-stack tailings facility with initial permitted capacity of ~43Mt, designed for staged expansions to 170Mt. 

• We forecast production rising from 44.7 mboe/d in 1H26 to more than 60 mboe/d in 4Q26, driven by completion of the SNS acquisition.
• Crucially, this adds over 10 mboe/d of high‑value UK natural gas at a time of seasonally stronger pricing.
• We expect a very active 2027–2028 drilling programme; we estimate capex of ~US$420 million in 2027 and ~US$500 mm in 2028.

• In this edition: • Shell | attracts healthy appetite for its US Chemicals assets • Unilever/MICC | Ben & Jerry’s dispute remains an overhang • PostNL/InPost | MyPup targets 1,000 indoor APMs by YE27 • TomTom | Traffic selected by Cofiroute • Triodos Bank | CEO Belgium leaves to join PMC’s ExCo