Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Pemex: Lower 2027 Transfer Reflects Refinancing Progress

Mexico Sovereign Debt: Investment Grade at a Discount

Pemex 4Q25: Debt Relief Anchors the Credit, Operating Fragility Persists

Brazil Sovereign Debt: External Strength, Fiscal Drift

Argentina Sovereign Debt: Normalization Trade, Not Normalized Credit

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Leverage fell sharply and short-term debt was cut by more than half YoY, materially improving PEMEX’s refinancing profile.</li>
<li>Cash generation is still not self-sustaining, with pre-contribution net FCF negative and supplier balances rising sequentially.</li>
<li>Most of the curve now trades near one-year OAS lows, leaving the clearest value in the 2035s and, for duration, the 2050s.</li>
</ul>


Leverage fell sharply and short-term debt was cut by more than half YoY, materially improving PEMEX’s refinancing profile.
Cash generation is still not self-sustaining, with pre-contribution net FCF negative and supplier balances rising sequentially.
Most of the curve now trades near one-year OAS lows, leaving the clearest value in the 2035s and, for duration, the 2050s.


PEMEX 2Q26: Better Metrics, Support Still Matters

Petroleos Mexicanos

PEMEX 2Q26: Better Metrics, Support Still Matters