Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Pemex 4Q25: Debt Relief Anchors the Credit, Operating Fragility Persists

PEMEX 2Q26: Better Metrics, Support Still Matters

Mexico Sovereign Debt: Investment Grade at a Discount

Brazil Sovereign Debt: External Strength, Fiscal Drift

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>We maintain Overweight with lower conviction, preferring the 7.690% 2050s for new money and the 6.625% 2035s for lower-duration accounts.</li>
<li>The 69% cut in 2027 federal transfers reflects a lighter maturity burden from liability management, not stronger standalone cash generation or weaker sovereign support.</li>
<li>Front-End refinancing gains are largely priced in; relative value has shifted long, where the 2050s offer superior spread-per-duration compensation but greater downgrade and supply sensitivity. </li>
</ul>


We maintain Overweight with lower conviction, preferring the 7.690% 2050s for new money and the 6.625% 2035s for lower-duration accounts.
The 69% cut in 2027 federal transfers reflects a lighter maturity burden from liability management, not stronger standalone cash generation or weaker sovereign support.
Front-End refinancing gains are largely priced in; relative value has shifted long, where the 2050s offer superior spread-per-duration compensation but greater downgrade and supply sensitivity. 


Pemex: Lower 2027 Transfer Reflects Refinancing Progress

Petroleos Mexicanos

Pemex: Lower 2027 Transfer Reflects Refinancing Progress