Energy & Materials Sector

• On 25 August, SK Innovation (096770 KS) announced a merger with SK IE Technology (361610 KS) (SK IET).
• I believe this will have a negative impact on SK Innovation and a neutral impact on SK IET.
• The biggest concern is the fact that SK IET has been generating continued net losses in the past several years and this could negatively impact SK Innovations’ financial structure. 

• LME cash-to-3M copper spread has eased sharply, but tight nearby supply and concentrated positioning keep the market vulnerable to renewed squeezes.
• Copper options show a firmer upside tilt as CVOL and skew rise, while call-heavy positioning contrasts with cautious managed-money positioning.
• The Government of India’s HCL OFS offers up to 6% stake at INR 514, with non-retail bidding opening Tuesday (25/Aug) and retail bidding Wednesday (26/Aug).

• The company trades at a 50% discount to its royalty-based asset value, with royalty receivables covering market cap.
• The strategic review aims to unlock royalty asset value, potentially increasing share price, with minimal employees remaining.
• A large fund with a substantial stake is aligned to realize value, influencing the strategic review process.

• • 2Q26 production averaged 1,743 boe/d, broadly in line with expectations.
• • The transportation dispute that has shut in ~400 boe/d from the Mechanicsburg and Greens Creek fields continues.
• We continue to assume a resolution by end‑3Q26, with production resuming in 4Q26.

• The oil market continued its selloff under the belief that a return to the negotiating table is likely, but again, we will believe it when we see it.            
• • Our energy equities may be telling a bit different story, however, generally holding up better than the commodity thus far.                          
• While the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract remains in our “no-man’s land,” we are buyers in December if October falls below $80.00 per barrel toward our $75.00 per barrel trough.      

• Crude oil futures retreated for a second session on Tuesday amid a relatively calm reaction to the latest round of US sanctions on Iran, although regional tensions remain high.
• Oct26 ICE Brent futures were 3.9% lower at $88.53/b (2030 BST), while Oct26 NYMEX  WTI was at $82.24/b , down 3.3% versus Monday’s settle.
• The US Treasury Department has broadened the list of entities and tankers sanctioned by Washington as part of Operation Economic Outcast, which plans to isolate Tehran from the global financial system.

• Occidental Petroleum Corporation’s second quarter 2026 results demonstrated operational and financial progress, underscoring the company’s pursuit of sustainable cash flow growth driven by capital discipline, cost efficiency, and resource optimization.
• Production averaged 1.43 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, surpassing guidance, predominantly due to strong performance in U.S. onshore assets such as the Permian Basin and the Gulf of America.
• However, international volumes were somewhat hindered by geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East.

• RIO received approval of its Modified Environmental Impact Study (MEIA) at Condestable on August 21st, concluding a 14-month process.
• The approval permits an increase in throughput to 10Ktpd from the current 8.4Ktpd and extends the environmentally approved mine life by a further decade.
• It also authorizes a dry-stack tailings facility with initial permitted capacity of ~43Mt, designed for staged expansions to 170Mt. 

• We forecast production rising from 44.7 mboe/d in 1H26 to more than 60 mboe/d in 4Q26, driven by completion of the SNS acquisition.
• Crucially, this adds over 10 mboe/d of high‑value UK natural gas at a time of seasonally stronger pricing.
• We expect a very active 2027–2028 drilling programme; we estimate capex of ~US$420 million in 2027 and ~US$500 mm in 2028.

• In this edition: • Shell | attracts healthy appetite for its US Chemicals assets • Unilever/MICC | Ben & Jerry’s dispute remains an overhang • PostNL/InPost | MyPup targets 1,000 indoor APMs by YE27 • TomTom | Traffic selected by Cofiroute • Triodos Bank | CEO Belgium leaves to join PMC’s ExCo

• In this insight, we present our final expectations for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the September 2026 index rebal event.
• We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and five changes for ASX 200. Separately, we see 13 ADDs and 10 DELs for ASX 300.
• The Vault minerals deal could trigger index changes after the September 2026 index review.

• The fall spin-off calendar is finally starting to fill in…
• Two of the three names I am watching most closely now have dates.
• Corteva (CTVA) is schedule to separate Vylor on 10/1/2026. KBR (KBR) has set 1/4/2027 for the spin-off of its government services business, Trinzic.

• Sunoco LP reported strong financial and operational results for the second quarter of 2026, demonstrating growth across its diversified portfolio comprising Fuel Distribution, Pipeline Systems, Terminals, and Refining segments.
• Adjusted EBITDA reached $996 million, excluding $14 million in one-time transaction expenses, surpassing the mid-year performance that led the company to raise its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance by $400 million to a range of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion.
• Distributable cash flow (DCF) as adjusted was $608 million for the quarter, supporting a declared quarterly distribution of just over $1 per common unit.

• Crude oil futures edged higher on Friday after a run of steady gains cemented a second weekly rise, as the tense standoff between the US and Iran showed no signs of easing.
• Oct26 ICE  Brent futures were 0.25% higher at $94.01/b (2023 BST), while Oct26 NYMEX WTI was at $86.80/b , essentially flat with Thursday’s settle, though both benchmarks had traded higher earlier in the day.
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday that Washington will impose the “toughest sanctions in history” to “collapse” the Iranian government, calling on other nations, including China, to join the effort.

• Volume Surge and Price Recovery Drive Revenue Turnaround: Kunlun’s revenue skyrocketed to RMB 1.97 billion in 1H2026 (a 210% YoY increase) with net profits reaching RMB 148 million, fueled by a sharp recovery in average selling prices (ASPs) to ~RMB 25,000 per ton in 1H2026, alongside massive restocking and a spike in energy storage system (ESS) demand.
• Extreme Customer Concentration and Working Capital Trap: While market share rose to 4.5% by volume in 2025 (ranking #4 globally), Kunlun remains heavily reliant on CATL, which accounted for 56.1% of 1H2026 revenue. This monopsony power squeezed Kunlun’s cash flow, leading to a negative operating cash flow of RMB 17.41 million as trade receivables bloated to RMB 1.56 billion.
• Aggressive Capital Expansion and Strategic Hedges: Kunlun is expanding capacity from 180,000 tons to over 500,000 tons per year. While European expansion in Hungary has been delayed to Q3 2027, Kunlun is backward-integrating via its 51.00% stake in Shandong Lizhong to secure 10,000 tons of LiPF6 capacity, attempting to mitigate raw material price volatility.

• Asahi Holdings (5857 JP) share price rose 30% in a month after our last insight. Nothing was wrong with the company and result was great. 
• The stock will go ex-dividend next month, but the share price appreciation has beaten the dividend amount of 3.5%. Worth protecting the capital gain. 
• It generates one of the highest ROIC at 10% against the peers and trades at the lower end of the spectrum. 

Highlights

• Indonesia May rubber exports hit a recent low of over 99,400 tons

• May returns at over US$206 million, supported by higher prices

• Area under rubber cultivation declines by about 17% in five years until 2026

• Welspun Corp won its largest-ever single order, worth USD 1.8 billion, to be executed entirely out of its Little Rock, Arkansas plant.
• The order lifts the global order book to a record USD 4.4 billion and validates nearly two decades of onshore US capital allocation ahead of a multi-year pipeline capex cycle.
• The stock hit an all-time high on the news; the real question for investors is how repeatable this order is, and that requires understanding the US gas buildout underneath it.

• MPLX reported second quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 billion, representing a 5% year-over-year increase despite the divestiture of its Rockies assets in late 2025.
• This growth enabled distributions exceeding $1.1 billion to unitholders.
• The company highlighted operational progress and capacity expansions across its integrated natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) value chains, with multiple projects entering service or ramping up, notably in the Delaware Basin and Northeast regions.

• Vertical Upstream Integration as a Moat: Unlike local peers who act purely as formulators, Red Avenue’s primary differentiator is its completed backward integration into electronic-grade resins (cresol-formaldehyde, PHS, and acrylics). This secures 40% to 80% of the photoresist cost pool, stabilizes batch-to-batch consistency, and mitigates the risk of Japanese resin embargoes.
• HK IPO as a Liquidity Lifeline: The H-share filing on August 21, 2026, is born out of acute balance sheet stress. Operating with an 87.7% gearing ratio and a 0.9x current ratio, Red Avenue is utilizing the dual-listing structure not just for global expansion, but to pay down high short-term bank debt and fund capital-intensive ArF/KrF scaling.
• PBAT as a Stranded Asset: The company’s 60,000-ton/year biodegradable materials (PBAT) plant in Shanghai is currently suspended. Extreme domestic industry overcapacity and weak enforcement of plastic bans have turned this licensed BASF technology into a severe margin drag, forcing a pivot toward preservation rather than growth.

• Gold ran 4,400 to 4,634 in two weeks, taking the 200-day gate and its third straight weekly gain, as US debt crossed US$40 trillion.
• Ray Dalio warns of a debt crisis within roughly three years, debt service near 200% of revenue — reframes Bessent’s US$4bn buybacks as a crisis symptom, not a fix.
• BULLISH on Gold, Fair Value US$4,780 unchanged: The upside is fairly close and therefore wait for pullbacks or profit taking trades and then build positions.

• Red Avenue New Materials Group is a PRC comprehensive new materials service provider specializing in advanced chemical products. It holds leading market positions in rubber additives and photoresist markets, undertaking.
• The company ranked #1 in global phenolic resins rubber additives for tyres market (FY2025) and #1 in PRC TFT array photoresist market (FY2025). Revenue increased to RMB3,420.6 million (FY2025).
• FY2025 revenue was RMB3,420,577 thousand, with profit for the year of RMB577,261 thousand and return on equity of 15.0%. The current ratio declined to 0.9 times (30 June 2026).

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• Kunlun New Energy Materials Technology (Yichang) is a global supplier of lithium-ion battery electrolytes, specializing in R&D, production, and sales. It ranked third globally in 2025 with a 3.6% market.
• Secured electrolyte orders worth around RMB684.4 million since July 1, 2026, an increase of 217.2% compared to the corresponding period of 2025.
• Revenue was 1,971,914 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2026, and total assets were 3,527,198 thousand.

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• Louisiana LNG’s capital risk has been heavily mitigated by the twin sell-downs in 2025 to Stonepeak (40%) and Williams (10% HoldCo, 80% PipelineCo). This structural partnering shifted $7.6 billion in capital obligations away from Woodside’s balance sheet, though Woodside remains exposed to $11.8 billion in capex and is actively searching for a third partner to acquire a further 20% stake.
• Scarborough is on the home stretch at 98% complete as of mid-2026, with first gas achieved and first LNG cargo locked in for Q4 2026. This project is the linchpin for Woodside’s near-term deleveraging strategy, as it must generate substantial free cash flow to offset a balance sheet currently carrying $9.3 billion in net debt and a 21% gearing ratio.
• Decommissioning liabilities are an immediate cash drain, with a US$6.89 billion restoration provision on the balance sheet as of Dec 31, 2025 and guided spend of US$500 to US$800 million for 2026 alone. This liability remains highly sensitive to regulatory changes, specifically NOPSEMA’s strict insistence on full removal over in-situ abandonment, which could drive long-term costs significantly higher.

• Auric Mining Limited (ASX:AWJ) is a junior gold producer and developer that owns a portfolio of gold assets around the Kalgoorlie and Norseman regions of Western Australia (WA).
• The release of the Integrated Study is a major milestone for AWJ in becoming a standalone gold producer, with the study detailing attractive economics from a five-year operation.
• AWJ has net cash of ~$38m as of June 2026, which we think can support ongoing exploration, support further tolling opportunities, complementary asset acquisitions, and potentially provide a material contribution towards funding the Burbanks redevelopment.

• Australia’s ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 17th August, published on the 21st August.
• The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.1bn into “Media/Services“; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.4bn out of “Banks“. Net shorts declined A$0.7bn week-on-week.
• Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: PLS Group (PLS AU), Woodside Energy Group (WDS AU), CAR Group (CAR AU), Xero Ltd (XRO AU), and Wisetech Global (WTC AU).

• The U.S. is now promising to place a “heavy boot” on Iran of additional economic sanctions, telling countries who trade with Iran “you are either with us or against us.”          
• While traders and funds may bid the market up further in response, our belief is that unless Iran responds militarily, the upside to crude oil prices may be limited.   
• In this regard, we will retain our long-standing $75.00-$88.00 per barrel trading range for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract until proven wrong.         

• Credit improves, valuation caps upside: 2Q26 EBITDA rose 34% YoY, leverage fell to 1.32x, but 2035s at 138bps OAS leave little compensation beyond U.S. BBBs.
• North America anchors earnings: 74% of segment EBITDA comes from North America, where strong backlog and Section 232 support offset a Brazil recovery still reliant on mix and productivity.
• Neutral, with 2035s preferred: We favor the 5.750% 2035s for liquidity and structure, but would turn more constructive closer to 155bps OAS or on upside execution.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• What recent intervention in the US government bond market means for our themes
• While a short-term bounce is likely, the USD’s bear market has resumed

• The BGN tolling agreement is an operational life preserver, not a margin driver. By transitioning from the terminated Phillips 66 contract to the BGN INT US LLC agreement, XCF Global has offloaded its feedstock price risk but severely capped its margin upside. Because BGN retains ownership of the feedstock, XCF acts purely as a contract processor, preventing it from capturing true green premiums, volatile feedstock arbitrage, or the full value of federal tax credits.
• Acute liquidity distress and an imminent debt wall threaten going-concern viability. XCF is operating on a microscopic liquidity runway with only $1.05 million in cash as of mid-2026. Meanwhile, it faces a defaulted $130.7 million Greater Nevada Credit Union loan and a ticking ground lease forbearance clock with landlord Twain Financial that expires on January 1, 2027.
• The proposed three-party merger with DevvStream and Southern Energy is a highly speculative recapitalization attempt. Despite the grand strategic narrative of creating an integrated e-SAF and environmental attribute giant, the transaction is heavily burdened by execution risks. Southern is chasing an unfinanced $400 million bond and DevvStream remains deeply unprofitable, making the transaction’s closing condition of achieving $1.0 billion in annualized revenue highly detached from XCF’s current physical footprint.

• DuPont’s second quarter 2026 results reflected continued execution of its strategic priorities, with solid organic sales growth, margin expansion, and strong cash flow generation.
• The company reported net sales of $1.8 billion, up 4% organically year-over-year, driven by broad-based strength across healthcare, aerospace, industrial water, semiconductor, building technologies, and diversified industrial end markets.
• Operating EBITDA grew 8% to $448 million, with margins expanding by 80 basis points to 24.6%, despite a 30 basis point headwind from oil and gas-related price and cost dynamics.

• Energy Transfer’s second quarter 2026 financial results indicate continued growth across its key business segments, highlighted by an adjusted EBITDA of approximately $5.1 billion, up from $3.9 billion in the same period in 2025.
• Distributable cash flow (DCF) attributable to partners also rose to around $2.6 billion from $2.0 billion year-over-year.
• This performance was underpinned by record volumes in Midstream gathering, natural gas liquids (NGL) transportation and exports, and crude oil transportation.

• The latest quarterly report for BP p.l.c. highlights several key developments in its operational, financial, and strategic initiatives during the second quarter of 2026 under the leadership of newly appointed CEO Meg O’Neill.
• The period was marked by a volatile global energy environment, partly influenced by geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, which affected upstream production and operational consistency.
• On the positive side, BP delivered robust financial results with underlying profit reaching $5.7 billion—a $2.5 billion increase from the prior quarter—and operating cash flow of $10.9 billion, despite a $1 billion working capital build.

• James Hardie has moved into the M&A spotlight after agreeing to sell its European Fermacell business to Holcim for €840 million, or roughly $980 million in cash.
• The transaction, announced on August 20, 2026, covers the fermacell and Aestuver brands and is expected to close during the first half of 2027, subject to customary approvals and consultation requirements.
• Importantly, there is currently no public confirmation that Holcim has approached James Hardie about acquiring the entire company; Holcim’s confirmed interest is limited to Fermacell.

• Suncor Energy’s second quarter of 2026 presented a mixed operational environment marked by unprecedented weather challenges and continued improvements in productivity and financial performance.
• The company experienced record precipitation levels in the Fort McMurray region, adversely impacting mining productivity and reducing production by an estimated 50,000 to 60,000 barrels per day for the quarter.
• Despite this, upstream production reached 761,000 barrels per day, and July preliminary output rebounded strongly to approximately 870,000 barrels per day, near the company’s second-highest July on record.

• EOG Resources reported strong second quarter 2026 results, characterized by record adjusted earnings per share of $5.07, adjusted cash flow from operations per share of $8.29, and free cash flow of $2.8 billion.
• These milestones highlight the company’s low-cost operating model and capital efficiency, supported by robust oil prices and effective operational execution across its multi-basin portfolio.
• The company returned approximately $1.8 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the quarter and maintains a significant share repurchase authorization balance of $11.7 billion as of June 30.

• Devon Energy completed a merger with Coterra Energy in early May 2026, marking 94 days of integration and operational execution discussed during the second quarter.
• The company reported strong quarter performance, surpassing production guidance and generating $1.7 billion in adjusted free cash flow.
• Key elements emphasized include the integration progress, delivery on synergy targets, and enhanced portfolio quality through strategic acquisitions, such as the New Mexico federal lease sale, which added approximately 400 premium drilling locations in the Delaware Basin at effective costs lower than headline figures due to favorable royalty structures.

• KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX). 
• We expect up to 5 ADDs/6 DELs in the KOSPI 200 index during the next semiannual review in December 2026. Roughly 61% of the reference period is now complete. 
• There is the potential for sector threshold borderline volatility to change both the number of name changes and the names themselves. 

• CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Ltd (8382406Z IN) raised about US$342m in its India IPO in Mar 2026. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
• CEESL is a provider of commercial and industrial renewable energy, which specializes in delivering decarbonization solutions, including supplying renewable power and offering energy services and carbon credit solutions to customers.
• In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

• XCF Global, Inc. invests in renewable energy assets and production facilities, primarily focusing on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to reduce carbon footprint.
• Incorporated January 20, 2023, XCF Global acquired renewable energy assets and produced 5.8 million gallons of SAF, diesel, and naphtha.
• Total revenue was $6,576,232 for six months ended June 30, 2025, with substantial doubt about going concern.

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• TPL Plastech Limited (TPPL IN) is a leading Indian polymer packaging manufacturer (75% owned by Time Technoplast Limited), operating a strategic nationwide manufacturing footprint producing drums, carboys, and high-value Intermediate Bulk Containers (IBCs).
• The company demonstrated robust operating momentum in FY26, with revenue expanding 20.9% YoY to INR 4,225.53 Mn and Net Income rising 23.2% YoY to INR 290.71 Mn, underpinned by 21% volume growth from the Dahej greenfield ramp-up and disciplined cost management.
• With an expanding presence in higher-margin IBCs, balance sheet deleveraging (INR 260 Mn debt reduction in FY26), and a solid dividend track record (5-year CAGR of 23.36%), TPL Plastech offers institutional investors targeted exposure to India’s specialty chemical and pharmaceutical supply chain growth.

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• Equinor ASA is making a deeper push into the U.S. power market through an agreement to acquire 87.71% of the Class A shares in Pennsylvania’s 1,483 MW Lackawanna Energy Center for $940 million, subject to a potential closing adjustment.
• The gas-fired combined-cycle plant, developed and operated by Invenergy, produces close to 9 TWh of net electricity annually and sits inside PJM, the largest U.S. wholesale electricity market.
• The deal would give Equinor preferred dividend rights, continued operating support from Invenergy, and exposure to a market where electricity demand is rising on data centers, electrification, and industrial activity.

• Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported a strong second quarter for 2026, driven by robust operational execution and favorable market conditions.
• The company achieved adjusted EBITDA of $8.5 billion and earnings per share of $17.73, with refining and marketing (R&M) segment EBITDA reaching approximately $6.7 billion on throughput of nearly 3 million barrels per day, running at an overall 94% utilization rate.
• Notably, the U.S. Gulf Coast refinery operated at full 100% utilization, contributing to a $27 adjusted EBITDA per barrel figure, supported by optimized crude sourcing, increased jet fuel yields, and strong domestic and export demand.

• Parent Divestment Triggers and Asset Valuation: Lotte Chemical Corporation (LCC) is actively reviewing strategic options for its 74.7% stake in Lotte Chemical Titan (LCTH). Driven by intense financial pressure in South Korea and the need to pivot away from low-margin basic chemicals, LCC’s divestment is highly likely. However, a significant valuation mismatch exists: the aging domestic Malaysian assets (Pasir Gudang and Tanjung Langsat) are structurally uncompetitive, whereas the newly operational US$3.95 billion Indonesian LINE project represents the primary value driver.
• ** feedstocks and Cash Burn Vulnerability**: LCTH’s structural dependence on imported naphtha makes it highly vulnerable to volatile crude spreads, as demonstrated by its RM120 million to RM140 million monthly cash burn in early 2026. While the company temporarily mitigated this by shutting down its 430,000 tonnes/year Naphtha Cracker No. 1 (NC1) in December 2024, its high-cost position on the global cost curve persists compared to ethane-based peers.
• Governance and Parent Autonomy Deficit: Governance is characterized by a top-down management approach directed from South Korea, leaving the local Malaysian management team with limited decision-making autonomy. This structural dynamic historically prioritized volume over margins to maintain feed supply to the parent’s downstream network. The current exit strategy is further complicated by local legal liabilities, such as the active RM130 million lawsuit from Petroleum Logistic Services.

• U.S. distillate stocks are 12.7% below their five-year average, compared with a 5.3% shortfall for gasoline, highlighting just how much tighter the diesel market is.
• Record export flows, jet-fuel competition for distillate barrels, and Russian sanctions have pushed the ULSD-WTI crack spread past its 2022 peak to unprecedented levels.
• Gasoline’s deficit fades as driving season ends and demand structurally declines; diesel’s refining-capacity constraint persists through winter heating season and beyond.

• • Panoro Energy has agreed to acquire a 9.09% indirect interest in the gas‑producing CI‑27 block in Côte d’Ivoire from DNO for US$80 mm.
• • CI‑27 is the country’s largest source of non‑associated gas, supplying more than 70% of domestic demand.
• The block produces ~195–200 mmcfe/d (Panoro net: ~18 mmcfe/d, ~95% gas), with volumes sold to CI Energy at a fixed price of US$6.5/mmbtu.

• The complete divestment of Nippon Paper’s 30.02% stake in Lintec represents a critical structural break, driven by Nippon Paper’s urgent balance sheet restructuring under its Medium-term Business Plan 2030 and accelerated by TSE capital efficiency mandates.
• To cushion the resulting 60x average daily volume supply shock, Lintec’s massive ¥30 billion buyback (representing up to 10.55% of outstanding shares) is a defensive necessity to prevent severe share price depreciation, but it also signals a permanent shift in management’s capital allocation towards return on equity (ROE) targets.
• While Lintec holds a highly profitable, dominant 30.0% global market share in semiconductor back grinding process tapes, its legacy Paper and Converted Products segments remain structurally impaired—evidenced by a ¥7.73 billion impairment loss in 2025—and will require hard hurdle rate enforcement to spin off or restructure.

• The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap and mid-cap (and the bottom end of large cap) gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
• We expect 30+ index changes (ADDs and DELs) in the September 2026 rebal, with BIG names on both sides. The one-way flow is around US$2.1bn, nearly 21% turnover.
• The top-five fixed weights cap mainly drives the one-way flows. We expect two LOW-conviction ADDs to shake up this list, but volatile gold stocks could shift rankings. 

• The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. 
• Currently, we still don’t see any index changes for September 2026. The official results will be announced at the close of 11th September 2026.
• We see around US$230mm of one-way flow. But this could drastically change if any ‘Large-Small- weight’ name changes occur.

• Lintec Corp (7966 JP) is a maker of printed adhesives, stickers, seals, labels, barcodes strips, etc. They also do adhesives for optical products and LCDs/electronics. That’s 80-90% of OP.
• Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP) owns 32%. Today they announced they are selling 30%, worth ¥112bn or so at last price. It’s big. 60x ADV. 
• Lintec today announced Q1 earnings, which are probably a trifle light. They also announced a buyback of up to 10.55% of shares to mitigate the impact of the offering. Better.

• Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP) is looking to raise US$600m in an upcoming secondary sale of shares in Lintec Corp (7966 JP).
• This sale is part of Nippon Paper’s balance sheet optimization plans, as laid out in their medium term plan 2030.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• BSE SENSEX represents the 30 largest stocks listed in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in India.
• In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX index for the December 2026 index rebal event.
• As things stand, there could be one index change for the BSE SENSEX Index in December 2026.

• Lintec Corp (7966 JP) has announced a secondary offering of 17.1 million shares (19.7 million including overallotment), valued at around US$0.6 billion (US$0.7 billion including overallotment).
• The offering will enable Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP), the largest shareholder, to sell all its directly owned shares.
• The offering, as a percentage of outstanding shares, is the sixth-highest, and, in terms of ADV, the fifth-highest among large Japanese placements since 2021.

• On 27 July, Carnaby Resources (CNB AU) entered a scheme with Evolution Mining (EVN AU) at 0.0682 EVN shares per CNB share, a 60.4% premium to the last close.
• Regulatory approvals (ACCC) are low-risk. The exchange ratio is broadly in line with the 3-year average price ratio. 
• Despite retail opposition, the scheme vote should pass, particularly as Evolution’s share price strength has increased the implied deal value by 33% from A$0.77 (deal announcement) to A$1.03 (last close). 

• Realized gold of US$4,486/oz drove revenue up 23% to US$65.2m and net profit up 18% to US$18.6m, despite a 6% fall in CIL output.
• The balance sheet remains the differentiator: US$62.9m net cash, no bank borrowings, and the US$12m twin-shaft underground build is fully self-funded to completion in 2027.
• FY26e at 8.9x P/E and 7.2x EV/EBITDA on S$1.37, 1.4% yield, 48.7% ROE, with 11% of the market cap in cash. 

• Lotte Chemical Titan Holding Berhad (TTNP MK) (LCTH), one of SE-Asia’s largest plastic resin producers, gained ~11% yesterday on decent volume.
• Reportedly its parent, Lotte Chemical (011170 KS), may sell its 75.7% stake, as it restructures away from petrochemicals. LCTH’s four consecutive years of losses also (presumably) play a role. 
• LCTH responded to the rumours by announcing Lotte Chemical “is considering various strategic measures related to” LCTH. Worth a quick note on the current status. 

• Iron ore has been relatively steady in the last three years after a highly volatile seven years before that.  Market forces currently pushing IODEX in different directions.
• Major drivers include declining profitability in the Chinese Steel Sector, and the global oil price situation, mainly driven by geopolitical risks and war.
• We discuss a DEC26 options strategy aimed at monetizing iron ore volatility in the current range.

• Back on the 19th May 2026, European Lithium (EUR AU) entered into a reverse Scheme via a scrip deal with ~34.4% held Critical Metals (CRML US). 
• CRML intended to issue 0.035 new CRML shares for each EUR share. Prior to today’s amended Scheme announcement, CRML’s share price had fallen ~57% from the 28th April 2026 NBIO.  
• The amendment involves a floating share Scheme transaction ratio, subject to a cap and collar, replacing the previous fixed ratio.

• Critical Metals (CRML US) has replaced its previous European Lithium (EUR AU) exchange ratio with a cap-and-floor ratio to partially offset a 48% decline in CRML shares since 28 April.
• Based on CRML’s current 20-day VWAP, the maximum exchange ratio of 0.045x applies, implying a revised consideration 28.6% higher than the previous offer.
• If the CRML 20-day VWAP increases above US$12.00, EUR shareholders will be worse off with the revised offer. However, the likelihood of CRML’s shares almost doubling is remote.

• Context: The BHP (BHP AU) vs. Rio Tinto (RIO AU) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlight: Going long Rio Tinto (RIO AU) and short BHP (BHP AU) targets a 4% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Crude futures opened the week firmer as the standoff between the US and Iran continued without resolution, leaving just a handful of tankers passing through the critical chokepoint.
• Oct26 ICE  Brent futures were 2.4% higher at $90.66/b (2030 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX  WTI was at $84.40/b , also up 2.4% versus Friday’s settle.
• Tensions continued to simmer after the US threatened Iran with an “indefinite” blockade and further financial sanctions , a move which potentially extends the conflict and adds to supply worries.

• As we expected, there continues to be absolutely no sign that the current U.S.-Iran stalemate will end anytime soon.           
• In terms of our energy equity universe, it appears that portfolio managers are now embracing oil price “duration” versus price level, consistent with our “indefinite stalemate” scenario.                         
• We would not “chase” our stocks here, however, and we are looking for opportunities to begin trimming equity length in our model portfolio versus hedging with the commodity.                  

• Q2 Results Not As Bad As Headline Numbers Indicate.
• The headline Revenue number of $7.61 million for Q2 was a sharp decline from the year ago period, which included a one-time $2.5 million food-related R&D fee, however the details of the quarter paint a mixed picture.
• Food revenue was not as strong as expected, as production issues impacted output. 

• The best ROIC in the wafer group (14.5%) does not trade at the best multiple — the PVC business imposes a conglomerate discount; the silicon recovery removes the justification.
• FY2025’s 14.4% profit fall was two independent cycle troughs — Asian PVC and wafer destocking — arriving simultaneously; Q1 FY2026 confirmed both are passing, management calls supply constrained.
• Initiating BULLISH, fair value ¥7,300 (11.5x FY2027E EBITDA); 14.4% capital upside plus 2.0% yield; 23 October H1 result is the catalyst to quantify the Electronics Materials recovery.

• Hunan Yuneng New Energy Battery Material Co., Ltd. is a globally leading new energy materials company focused on R&D, manufacturing, and sales of phosphate-based cathode materials, primarily LFP cathode materials.
• The company ranked #1 globally in phosphate-based cathode materials shipment volume for six consecutive years (2020-2025), holding a 28.2% global market share in 2025.
• Revenue was RMB41,357,671 in 2023, with total assets of RMB49,271,086 and total equity of RMB19,103,243 as of March 31, 2026.

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• Crude futures extended the firm start to the week on Tuesday as fading prospects for peace talks kept markets on edge after Monday’s expiry of the US-Iran MoU.
• Oct26 ICE Brent futures were 0.1% higher at $90.95/b (2030 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX  WTI was at $84.06/b , up 0.4% versus Monday’s settle, though both benchmarks had traded higher earlier in the day.
• On Monday, an unnamed senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran will shift to a “fully offensive” military position after stalled efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war, with Washington ruling out extending a temporary ceasefire agreement.

• Ionic Rare Earths is pioneering high performance magnet rare earth oxide production while securing a circular economy for REEs and Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) magnets with a combination of advanced recycling, refining, and manufacturing capabilities.
• The company has a three pronged platform with potential operations in the U.K., Brazil and Uganda.
• Opportunities in the U.S. are also being explored.

• Gold fever continues Down Under as Ausgold Ltd (AUC AU) enters into a Scheme with OceanaGold Corp (OGC CN).
• OceanaGold is offering 0.03365 new shares for each Ausgold share, or an indicative Offer price of A$1.36/share, a 28% premium. A capped cash option is afforded, also at A$1.36/share.
• Post merger, Ausgold shareholders would hold ~7.9% (if 100% scrip consideration). A key shareholder and directors (collectively holding 9.1%) are supportive. December completion expected.  Clean deal. Interlopers possible.

• Cleanaway Waste Management received a non-binding takeover proposal from EQT at A$3.13/share, with an 18% spread.
• Potential suitors include SGH, KKR, BlackRock, and others, with a possible bidding war increasing the final price.
• Historical industry transactions suggest a final takeout price of A$3.50-A$3.70/share, translating to 11.3-11.8x EBITDA.

• Oil prices gained yesterday in response to President Trump’s threat to bomb Oman, an ally of the United States, if they try to “control” the Strait of Hormuz with Iran.          
• At the risk of famous last words, this will never happen, but if we are wrong, President Trump, with respect, will have opened a floodgate difficult to close.                         
• In any event, as before, we would be sellers of the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract if it reaches our trading range peak of roughly $88.00 per barrel.               

• Forum Energy Technologies (FET) is executing a comprehensive operational and strategic transformation under its ‘FET 2030’ plan, targeting a doubling of corporate revenue, quadrupling of EBITDA, and tripling of free cash flow by focusing on high-barrier Leadership Markets and doubling share in Growth Markets.
• Operating performance through 1H26 demonstrates resilient commercial execution, highlighted by 2Q26 revenues expanding 8.4% sequentially to $226.2M, gross margin expanding to 31.54%, and EBITDA margin reaching 12.65%, underscoring structural operating leverage despite a subdued global rig count environment.
• FET trades at an attractive valuation of 1.4x EV/Sales and 5.0x EV/Gross Profit, backed by a strong balance sheet and robust cumulative Free Cash Flow generation ($64.4M in 2025 and $84.0M in 2024), positioning the company for multi-year re-rating as international and subsea expansion accelerates.

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• WTI swung daily as shifting U.S.-Iran signals repeatedly changed the risk premium, while a record inventory build briefly pressured prices before renewed sanctions fears.
• WTI options volatility fell while managed money added longs and cut shorts, pointing to improving bullish conviction despite continued demand for downside protection.
• Energy ETFs attracted broad inflows, while VLO offered the cleanest exposure to a distillate-led refining rally despite a sharp valuation re-rating.

• We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
• As long as last Wednesday’s (Aug. 12) bullish gaps remain unfilled and hold as support on semiconductors (SOXX, SMH), generative A.I. (CHAT), memory(DRAM), neoclouds(NCLD), and momentum(MTUM), bulls are in control
• Specifically, we are bullish as long as price is above last Tuesday’s highs on the aforementioned ETFs. On SPX, we will remain bullish as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.

• Coyote Copper Mines was formed when Copper Bullet Mines Inc was reversed into First and Goal Capital Corp in April 2026.
• Founder and CEO, ex-broker Dan Weir, painstakingly pieced together 66km² of claims by tracking down the owners and substantial staking at the heart of the Copper Triangle, right beside copper majors like Rio Tinto, BHP, Asarco, South32, Capstone and KGHM.
• This copper district contains multiple giant porphyry copper systems formed during the Laramide orogeny.

• Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS) has been downtrending since April 2026 (after peaking in Feb 2026). In the last 2 weeks the stock staged a strong rally, potentially a directional change.
• The rally has been triggered by a combination of strong Q2 earnings and leadership confidence affirmed via Vice Chairman Kim Dong-kwan acquisition of 23,153 additional shares.
• After the 17th August holiday, the stock pulled back slightly on August 18th, it may be worth considering entering LONG position on this pullback (speculative trade).

• NSM Capital, Steadright’s 76.5% owned Moroccan entity, has secured a full 32% carried interest in the TitanBeach Project with Shan Tang Mining and signed an agreement with a state-owned construction firm.
• On August 12th, Steadright received the Mining License for the TitanBeach One Project through NSM Capital Sarl, a key de-risking moment on the path to development.
• Since our last note, SCM expanded the TitanBeach land package by ~32km2 (free of NSR).

• CTEK reported Q2 revenue of $5.1M (+53% YoY) vs. our $5.0M estimate, while adjusted EBITDA came in at $1.4M (28% margin, +83% YoY) compared to our estimate of $1.6M.
• During the quarter, CTEK delivered 20 units under the HALO international program and completed its first commercial sale into the South American Market (read our note here).
• The remaining 40 units will be delivered over the coming quarters.

• Ausgold Ltd (AUC AU) has entered into a scheme with OceanaGold Corp (OGC CN) at 0.03365 OGC shares per AUC share, a 27.7% premium to the last close.
• Regulatory approvals (ACCC and FIRB) are low-risk. The exchange ratio is fair, and the implied offer represents a 10-year high. 
• Despite emerging retail opposition, the scheme vote is low-risk. Although the offer is reasonable, it is not a knockout bid, so another bidder could emerge. 

Highlights

• 2026 Q2 exports fall 13% QoQ to 422,000 tons, but remained 1% above last year

• China imports dropped 24% QoQ, while Turkey boosted purchases by 29%

• AFR10 rallies on tight supply before macro-driven correction erases gains

• With the 60-day negotiating period now history, as we fully anticipated absolutely nothing has been accomplished between the U.S. and Iran.
• On the contrary, as we also have suggested in previous reports, there is a reasonably high probability that the stalemate could well continue through at least the end of 2026.  
• Despite no indication that traffic through the Strait will pick up significantly, we believe that the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract will remain in a $75.00-$88.00 per barrel trading range.        

• Pressure‑build‑up analysis from the first Hall zone at HOCH‑1 indicates stronger reservoir productivity, supporting a potential flow rate of ~3.5 mmcf/d versus the actual test rate of 2.7 mmcf/d.
• The sand body is also estimated to extend at least 600 m from the HOCH‑1 wellbore.
• Recently reprocessed pre‑stack depth‑migrated 3D seismic has refined the mapping of the Hall Channel Sands intersected in the deeper section of HOCH‑1.

• Q2 financial results were impacted by non-recurring tax events and a non-cash CVR revaluation.
• In addition, revenue was affected by concentrate export constraints due to now resolved blockades in Bolivia, resulting in sales below production.
• Operational performance remained strong with mining operations displaying declining costs, and ore processing delivering higher margins.

• Crude futures initially were mixed but ultimately moved higher in a choppy trading session on Friday as the market priced renewed US threats against Iran and lingering pressure from a large build in US inventories and weaker demand forecasts.
• At 2024 London time, Oct26 ICE Brent was up 1.7%   at $88.55/b , while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was up 1.4% to $82.37/b .
• Brent had fallen to an Asian-session low of $86.20/b before recovering as trading progressed to a high of $88.69/b during the European session.

• Diversified Energy Company is back at the center of upstream M&A speculation after Bloomberg reported on August 13, 2026, that the company is in advanced talks to acquire Elliott Investment Management-backed Birch Resources for more than $1.7 billion in cash.
• Birch operates in the Permian Basin, where Diversified has already expanded through its $1.3 billion acquisition of Maverick Natural Resources.
• The reported process is competitive, and no final decision has been made, but a transaction would extend Diversified’s recent acquisition streak after it closed more than $2 billion of deals in the prior 12 months and partnered with Carlyle on the $1.2 billion Camino Natural Resources transaction.

• Abundia is a waste-to-value company with a unique dual-platform model that converts waste plastics and biomass into SAF, other renewable fuels and chemicals through commercially proven pyrolysis and upgrading technologies. 
• The near-term objective is a final investment approval (FIA) on a first plastics-to-fuels facility in Baytown, Texas, targeted for early 2027. 
• 2Q26 results show execution advancing, with customer-funded engineering revenue from newly acquired RPD Technologies, a completed scale-up facility, and an engineering design basis in hand.

• TGOL reported a second infill drill hole at the Bench Target, which is an extension of a hole previously terminated in mineralization.
• The extension yielded ~60% higher grades over essentially the same downhole length and remains open at depth.
• The Company plans to adjust its remaining 2026 infill drilling to follow up on recent success ahead of the year-end MRE.

• Summer seasonality is providing some relief to the tight base oils market, with slower lubricant demand helping offset the loss of Middle East supply and allowing the market to operate with a thinner surplus

• The underlying supply position remains tight, with Middle East disruptions continuing to remove significant volumes and Group III availability still under the greatest pressure.

• Asia’s June supply fell faster than lubricant demand, cutting the regional surplus sharply and leaving less spare material to absorb stronger requirements later in the year.

• Australia’s ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 10th August, published on the 14th August.
• The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.4bn into “Metals”; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of “Food Retail”. Net shorts increased A$3.7bn(!) week-on-week.
• Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), Lynas Corp (LYC AU), PLS Group (PLS AU), Evolution Mining (EVN AU), and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU).

• Tamarack has successfully transitioned into a pure-play Clearwater producer following the strategic sale of its Charlie Lake assets for $804 million, significantly strengthening its balance sheet to a net cash position.
• The company is focused on a shareholder return model, evidenced by a 25% dividend increase post-asset sale, a disciplined share buyback program that has reduced the share count, and a commitment to return free funds flow to investors.
• With a vast and highly economic inventory of low-risk drilling locations in the Clearwater play, Tamarack is positioned for long-term, high-margin growth, further enhanced by an expanding waterflood program designed to significantly increase oil recovery.

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• Proforma EBITDA US$4.07bn, +19% y/y, driven by stronger realized prices and higher volumes; iron ore, copper and nickel sales up 3%, 18% and 7% y/y.
• FY26 iron ore C1 guidance raised to US$22.5-23.5/t and all-in to US$58-62/t on BRL and Brent; copper and nickel all-in guidance cut materially.
• At US$13.80, implies FY26e P/E 9.8x and EV/EBITDA 4.0x on US$105/t iron ore; US$1.7bn dividends approved plus a 100mn-share buyback. Risks now with iron ore 95 USD/ton.