Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Ausgold Ltd, Rubber Future SGX TSR20, Crude Oil, ADX Energy Ltd, Santacruz Silver Mining, Diversified Energy Company, Abundia Global Impact Group, Thunder Gold Corp, Base Oil and more

• Ausgold Ltd (AUC AU) has entered into a scheme with OceanaGold Corp (OGC CN) at 0.03365 OGC shares per AUC share, a 27.7% premium to the last close.
• Regulatory approvals (ACCC and FIRB) are low-risk. The exchange ratio is fair, and the implied offer represents a 10-year high. 
• Despite emerging retail opposition, the scheme vote is low-risk. Although the offer is reasonable, it is not a knockout bid, so another bidder could emerge. 

Highlights

• 2026 Q2 exports fall 13% QoQ to 422,000 tons, but remained 1% above last year

• China imports dropped 24% QoQ, while Turkey boosted purchases by 29%

• AFR10 rallies on tight supply before macro-driven correction erases gains

• With the 60-day negotiating period now history, as we fully anticipated absolutely nothing has been accomplished between the U.S. and Iran.
• On the contrary, as we also have suggested in previous reports, there is a reasonably high probability that the stalemate could well continue through at least the end of 2026.  
• Despite no indication that traffic through the Strait will pick up significantly, we believe that the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract will remain in a $75.00-$88.00 per barrel trading range.        

• Pressure‑build‑up analysis from the first Hall zone at HOCH‑1 indicates stronger reservoir productivity, supporting a potential flow rate of ~3.5 mmcf/d versus the actual test rate of 2.7 mmcf/d.
• The sand body is also estimated to extend at least 600 m from the HOCH‑1 wellbore.
• Recently reprocessed pre‑stack depth‑migrated 3D seismic has refined the mapping of the Hall Channel Sands intersected in the deeper section of HOCH‑1.

• Q2 financial results were impacted by non-recurring tax events and a non-cash CVR revaluation.
• In addition, revenue was affected by concentrate export constraints due to now resolved blockades in Bolivia, resulting in sales below production.
• Operational performance remained strong with mining operations displaying declining costs, and ore processing delivering higher margins.

• Crude futures initially were mixed but ultimately moved higher in a choppy trading session on Friday as the market priced renewed US threats against Iran and lingering pressure from a large build in US inventories and weaker demand forecasts.
• At 2024 London time, Oct26 ICE Brent was up 1.7%   at $88.55/b , while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was up 1.4% to $82.37/b .
• Brent had fallen to an Asian-session low of $86.20/b before recovering as trading progressed to a high of $88.69/b during the European session.

• Diversified Energy Company is back at the center of upstream M&A speculation after Bloomberg reported on August 13, 2026, that the company is in advanced talks to acquire Elliott Investment Management-backed Birch Resources for more than $1.7 billion in cash.
• Birch operates in the Permian Basin, where Diversified has already expanded through its $1.3 billion acquisition of Maverick Natural Resources.
• The reported process is competitive, and no final decision has been made, but a transaction would extend Diversified’s recent acquisition streak after it closed more than $2 billion of deals in the prior 12 months and partnered with Carlyle on the $1.2 billion Camino Natural Resources transaction.

• Abundia is a waste-to-value company with a unique dual-platform model that converts waste plastics and biomass into SAF, other renewable fuels and chemicals through commercially proven pyrolysis and upgrading technologies. 
• The near-term objective is a final investment approval (FIA) on a first plastics-to-fuels facility in Baytown, Texas, targeted for early 2027. 
• 2Q26 results show execution advancing, with customer-funded engineering revenue from newly acquired RPD Technologies, a completed scale-up facility, and an engineering design basis in hand.

• TGOL reported a second infill drill hole at the Bench Target, which is an extension of a hole previously terminated in mineralization.
• The extension yielded ~60% higher grades over essentially the same downhole length and remains open at depth.
• The Company plans to adjust its remaining 2026 infill drilling to follow up on recent success ahead of the year-end MRE.

• Summer seasonality is providing some relief to the tight base oils market, with slower lubricant demand helping offset the loss of Middle East supply and allowing the market to operate with a thinner surplus

• The underlying supply position remains tight, with Middle East disruptions continuing to remove significant volumes and Group III availability still under the greatest pressure.

• Asia’s June supply fell faster than lubricant demand, cutting the regional surplus sharply and leaving less spare material to absorb stronger requirements later in the year.