In today’s briefing:
- What I’ve Found on Fadu and Simmtech: Key Near Term Passive Flow Plays
- Aequitas: Victory Giant IPO Lockup – Nearly US$800m Cornerstone Release
- HK IPO Cornerstone Performance League Table (9M2026)
- HSCEI Dec 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast
- Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec26: Expected ADDs Sharply Down Vs Expected DELs
- Fermi Soars As AMD Signs Credit Support Agreement. Now, Why Would They Do That?
- Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Third JPY1 Bump, Same Stalemate, Limited Upside Left
- Transsion (传音控股) A+H IPO Trading
- Japan Activist Watch | Infomart, INES, Shibaura Machine, Foster Elec
- Primer: International Games System (3293 TT) – Oct 2026
What I’ve Found on Fadu and Simmtech: Key Near Term Passive Flow Plays
- I spoke directly with the KRX official overseeing KOSDAQ 150, who confirmed that Fadu’s June exclusion was due to ongoing litigation, putting December inclusion in question.
- He also confirmed the six-month normal trading record is irrelevant; Fadu’s inclusion hinges on the court case, with a ruling unlikely before early next year, effectively ruling out December entry.
- Simmtech could enter TIGER Semis Top 10 if FnGuide reclassifies it as Semiconductors in November’s MKF500 rebalance, potentially triggering front running and passive flow positioning.
Aequitas: Victory Giant IPO Lockup – Nearly US$800m Cornerstone Release
- Victory Giant Technology (2476 HK) (VG) raised around US$2.9bn in its upsized H-share listing in April 2026. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
- VG is one of the global leaders in advanced printed circuit boards (PCB) products for AI and high-performance computing.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
HK IPO Cornerstone Performance League Table (9M2026)
- We rank repeat cornerstone investors in 144 HK IPOs raising US$100m or more, listed from January 2025 to September 2026, split by investor type.
- Our league table statistics show past 2W returns by investor type and for the top investors within each type.
- In 9M2026, deals with hedge fund cornerstones underperformed the other four types on median 2W return.
HSCEI Dec 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast
- We screen the Mainland Securities ahead of the HSCEI review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close.
- One ADD and one DELETE are screened as high-conviction calls this cycle.
- We also include one mid-conviction ADD and one low-conviction DELETE.
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec26: Expected ADDs Sharply Down Vs Expected DELs
- ChiNext and ChiNext 50, respectively, represent the top 100 and top 50 A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
- We expect 7 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event.
- With approximately 91% of the review period complete, the rankings have largely stabilized.
Fermi Soars As AMD Signs Credit Support Agreement. Now, Why Would They Do That?
- Fermi announced that it has signed a credit support agreement with AMD, supporting a lease for phase one of Fermi’s Project Matador energy and AI buildout with 222 MW capacity
- The announcement comes as TensorWave, Fermi’s only prospective tenant, last month abruptly pushed out the closing date on its tenancy agreement to October 31
- TensorWave is a key partner in AMD’s Helios deployment and ramp, which began last month. AMD is effectively now bankrolling TensorWave’s role in that very ramp.
Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Third JPY1 Bump, Same Stalemate, Limited Upside Left
- EQT/DG raised its Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) offer by JPY1 to JPY3,682, extending the closing date to 28 October. The bump buys time as EQT/DG still lacks minimum acceptances.
- Bain/LY’s silence likely signals one decisive bump, ideally above JPY3,756 and towards the JPY3,923 DCF high end. But each idle extension gives Oasis and KDDI time to side with EQT/DG.
- At JPY3,800, upside is limited (+2.2% to +3.2%) against a -3.1% base downside and a severe (low-probability) tail risk. Taking some money off the table is sensible.
Transsion (传音控股) A+H IPO Trading
- Transsion, a mobile phone maker focused on Africa and other emerging markets, raised HKD 2,968.0m (USD 378.2m) and will list on HKEX on Thursday, 15 Oct 2026.
- In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s fundamentals and the deal terms.
- In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before its trading debut.
Japan Activist Watch | Infomart, INES, Shibaura Machine, Foster Elec
- INES (9742): AVI (10.1%) and Effissimo (15.8%) push for capital returns, utilizing ¥12.6bn net cash as municipal IT standardization shifts from build to recurring profit.
- Shibaura Machine (6104): Oasis built 11.3% targeting balance sheet levers—¥26bn net cash and 1.0x P/B—expecting mid-cycle operational recovery and AGM proposals on capital allocation.
- Foster Electric (6794): Axium (22.7%) and AVI (9.3%) drive “Project North Star,” securing board seats to fix thin margins, improve ROE, and deploy ¥11.7bn cash.
Primer: International Games System (3293 TT) – Oct 2026
- Strategic Pivot to High-Margin Digital Licensing: International Games System (IGS, 3293 TT) has successfully transitioned from a legacy arcade manufacturer into an asset-light digital gaming and iGaming IP licensor. With licensing revenue expanding to over 74% of total group turnover, IGS delivers industry-leading profitability, characterized by a 97.1% gross margin and a 49.3% net profit margin in FY2025, supported by sustained record quarterly net profits exceeding NT$3.26 billion in Q2 2026.
- Uncapped International Growth Corridors: Overseas B2B licensing represents the core multi-year earnings driver, led by rapid expansion in the United States social casino and sweepstakes market, where revenue share reached 14% with commercial operations active across only a small fraction of eligible legal jurisdictions. Concurrently, European growth via its Malta Gaming Authority-licensed TaDa Gaming subsidiary and entrenched dominance in Southeast Asia provide strong geographic diversification.
- Pristine Capital Structure and Compelling Shareholder Yield: Backed by zero interest-bearing debt, a net cash balance sheet exceeding NT$25 billion, and exceptional free cash flow conversion (>95% of EBITDA), IGS maintains superior capital return capabilities. With a latest cash dividend of NT$36.00 per share delivering an attractive 4.52% yield and a 10-year EPS CAGR of 42.7%, the stock offers institutional investors an attractive growth-at-a-reasonable-price profile.
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