In today’s briefing:
- [Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep26 Rebal: BIG Changes Likely; Top Five Names Drive Flows
- [Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Sep26 Rebal: Base Date Soon; Vault-Genesis Deal Consequences
- [Japan Offering] Nippon Paper Selling 30% of Lintec (7966 JP) – Big Offering W/ Offsetting Buyback
- Aequitas: Lintec Placement: US$600m Potential Cleanup by Nippon Paper but Watch the Buyback
- Quiddity Leaderboard BSE SENSEX Dec26: Expectations Have Changed; More Changes Possible
- Lintec (7966 JP): A US$0.7 Billion Secondary Offering
- Carnaby Resources (CNB AU): Evolution’s All-Scrip Scheme Offer
- CNMC Goldmine Holdings Limited (CNMC SP) 1H2026 Results: Price Carries the Half While Grades Soften
- Lotte Chemical Titan (TTNP MK) Pops On Possible Parent Existing
- Elliot Wave Calms on SGX IODEX: Monetizing the Iron Ore Curve Amidst Middle East Shipping Frictions
[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep26 Rebal: BIG Changes Likely; Top Five Names Drive Flows
- The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap and mid-cap (and the bottom end of large cap) gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
- We expect 30+ index changes (ADDs and DELs) in the September 2026 rebal, with BIG names on both sides. The one-way flow is around US$2.1bn, nearly 21% turnover.
- The top-five fixed weights cap mainly drives the one-way flows. We expect two LOW-conviction ADDs to shake up this list, but volatile gold stocks could shift rankings.
[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Sep26 Rebal: Base Date Soon; Vault-Genesis Deal Consequences
- The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
- Currently, we still don’t see any index changes for September 2026. The official results will be announced at the close of 11th September 2026.
- We see around US$230mm of one-way flow. But this could drastically change if any ‘Large-Small- weight’ name changes occur.
[Japan Offering] Nippon Paper Selling 30% of Lintec (7966 JP) – Big Offering W/ Offsetting Buyback
- Lintec Corp (7966 JP) is a maker of printed adhesives, stickers, seals, labels, barcodes strips, etc. They also do adhesives for optical products and LCDs/electronics. That’s 80-90% of OP.
- Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP) owns 32%. Today they announced they are selling 30%, worth ¥112bn or so at last price. It’s big. 60x ADV.
- Lintec today announced Q1 earnings, which are probably a trifle light. They also announced a buyback of up to 10.55% of shares to mitigate the impact of the offering. Better.
Aequitas: Lintec Placement: US$600m Potential Cleanup by Nippon Paper but Watch the Buyback
- Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP) is looking to raise US$600m in an upcoming secondary sale of shares in Lintec Corp (7966 JP).
- This sale is part of Nippon Paper’s balance sheet optimization plans, as laid out in their medium term plan 2030.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
Quiddity Leaderboard BSE SENSEX Dec26: Expectations Have Changed; More Changes Possible
- BSE SENSEX represents the 30 largest stocks listed in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in India.
- In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX index for the December 2026 index rebal event.
- As things stand, there could be one index change for the BSE SENSEX Index in December 2026.
Lintec (7966 JP): A US$0.7 Billion Secondary Offering
- Lintec Corp (7966 JP) has announced a secondary offering of 17.1 million shares (19.7 million including overallotment), valued at around US$0.6 billion (US$0.7 billion including overallotment).
- The offering will enable Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP), the largest shareholder, to sell all its directly owned shares.
- The offering, as a percentage of outstanding shares, is the sixth-highest, and, in terms of ADV, the fifth-highest among large Japanese placements since 2021.
Carnaby Resources (CNB AU): Evolution’s All-Scrip Scheme Offer
- On 27 July, Carnaby Resources (CNB AU) entered a scheme with Evolution Mining (EVN AU) at 0.0682 EVN shares per CNB share, a 60.4% premium to the last close.
- Regulatory approvals (ACCC) are low-risk. The exchange ratio is broadly in line with the 3-year average price ratio.
- Despite retail opposition, the scheme vote should pass, particularly as Evolution’s share price strength has increased the implied deal value by 33% from A$0.77 (deal announcement) to A$1.03 (last close).
CNMC Goldmine Holdings Limited (CNMC SP) 1H2026 Results: Price Carries the Half While Grades Soften
- Realized gold of US$4,486/oz drove revenue up 23% to US$65.2m and net profit up 18% to US$18.6m, despite a 6% fall in CIL output.
- The balance sheet remains the differentiator: US$62.9m net cash, no bank borrowings, and the US$12m twin-shaft underground build is fully self-funded to completion in 2027.
- FY26e at 8.9x P/E and 7.2x EV/EBITDA on S$1.37, 1.4% yield, 48.7% ROE, with 11% of the market cap in cash.
Lotte Chemical Titan (TTNP MK) Pops On Possible Parent Existing
- Lotte Chemical Titan Holding Berhad (TTNP MK) (LCTH), one of SE-Asia’s largest plastic resin producers, gained ~11% yesterday on decent volume.
- Reportedly its parent, Lotte Chemical (011170 KS), may sell its 75.7% stake, as it restructures away from petrochemicals. LCTH’s four consecutive years of losses also (presumably) play a role.
- LCTH responded to the rumours by announcing Lotte Chemical “is considering various strategic measures related to” LCTH. Worth a quick note on the current status.
Elliot Wave Calms on SGX IODEX: Monetizing the Iron Ore Curve Amidst Middle East Shipping Frictions
- Iron ore has been relatively steady in the last three years after a highly volatile seven years before that. Market forces currently pushing IODEX in different directions.
- Major drivers include declining profitability in the Chinese Steel Sector, and the global oil price situation, mainly driven by geopolitical risks and war.
- We discuss a DEC26 options strategy aimed at monetizing iron ore volatility in the current range.
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