Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

A buy-side analyst with over 18 years of experience investing in Asian markets and specializing in the mid-small cap space, emphasizing value investing in companies with good free cash flows/dividends and long-term holding horizons. 
Exempt Financial Adviser (EFA) under CrossASEAN Research Pte Ltd. It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Iron Ore: Diesel And Shipping Cost Plague Miners

Iron Ore’s GWH Restocking Is Back in Play, But Mill Margins Lag

Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (September 2026)

Vale (VALE US): Iron Ore Rules, But Copper Slowly Increasing

Iron Ore: Margin Squeeze For Players On Freight And Diesel Costs

Iron Ore Q3FY26 Operational Reports: Are The Miners Going To Find Diesel Supply/Price Challenging?

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Proforma EBITDA US$4.07bn, +19% y/y, driven by stronger realized prices and higher volumes; iron ore, copper and nickel sales up 3%, 18% and 7% y/y.</li>
<li>FY26 iron ore C1 guidance raised to US$22.5-23.5/t and all-in to US$58-62/t on BRL and Brent; copper and nickel all-in guidance cut materially.</li>
<li>At US$13.80, implies FY26e P/E 9.8x and EV/EBITDA 4.0x on US$105/t iron ore; US$1.7bn dividends approved plus a 100mn-share buyback. Risks now with iron ore 95 USD/ton. </li>
</ul>


Proforma EBITDA US$4.07bn, +19% y/y, driven by stronger realized prices and higher volumes; iron ore, copper and nickel sales up 3%, 18% and 7% y/y.
FY26 iron ore C1 guidance raised to US$22.5-23.5/t and all-in to US$58-62/t on BRL and Brent; copper and nickel all-in guidance cut materially.
At US$13.80, implies FY26e P/E 9.8x and EV/EBITDA 4.0x on US$105/t iron ore; US$1.7bn dividends approved plus a 100mn-share buyback. Risks now with iron ore 95 USD/ton. 


Vale S.A. (VALE US): Iron Ore Cost Support At 95 USD/Ton, But Margin Squeeze From Costs