Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

A buy-side analyst with over 18 years of experience investing in Asian markets and specializing in the mid-small cap space, emphasizing value investing in companies with good free cash flows/dividends and long-term holding horizons. 
Exempt Financial Adviser (EFA) under CrossASEAN Research Pte Ltd. It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Iron Ore: Margin Squeeze For Players On Freight And Diesel Costs

Iron Ore Loses a Key Floor. Are Options Markets Expecting Worse Ahead?

Vale S.A. (VALE US): Iron Ore Cost Support At 95 USD/Ton, But Margin Squeeze From Costs

Iron Ore Primer: Understanding The Drivers Of the Market, Ways To Play The Sector

Introduction: Initiation of Coverage in the Materials Sector

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenue +14% YoY to US$9.3bn; Proforma EBITDA +21% YoY to US$3.9bn, driven by higher iron ore, copper, and nickel volumes plus improved price realization across all divisions.</li>
<li>The company guided that the cost curve shifted upward by US$5-10/t due to the conflict; asymmetric impact, with marginal producers affected by more than US$10/t (north of 105 USD/t).</li>
<li>At US$105/t iron ore (base-case), the model implies FY26e P/E of 11.3x and EV/EBITDA of 4.5x; management expressed confidence in extraordinary dividends and buybacks if net debt trends below US$15bn.</li>
</ul>


Revenue +14% YoY to US$9.3bn; Proforma EBITDA +21% YoY to US$3.9bn, driven by higher iron ore, copper, and nickel volumes plus improved price realization across all divisions.
The company guided that the cost curve shifted upward by US$5-10/t due to the conflict; asymmetric impact, with marginal producers affected by more than US$10/t (north of 105 USD/t).
At US$105/t iron ore (base-case), the model implies FY26e P/E of 11.3x and EV/EBITDA of 4.5x; management expressed confidence in extraordinary dividends and buybacks if net debt trends below US$15bn.


Vale (VALE US): Iron Ore Rules, But Copper Slowly Increasing