Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Korea Zinc, Corteva , Rubber Future SGX TSR20, Crude Oil, Avanti Gold , Maritana Minerals, Nicola Mining, Holtec Nuclear, Base Oil, Canterra Minerals and more

• Two years have passed since the fight for the control of Korea Zinc erupted. Despite having lower stake, Chairman Choi alliance has maintained control over the company. 
• It is estimated that MBK/Young Poong alliance has a combined stake of 42.1% stake in Korea Zinc versus 38.8% for the Chairman Choi alliance.
• Fight for control of Korea Zinc is far from over. MBK/Young Poong alliance is likely to stage a third proxy battle for Korea Zinc against Chairman Choi in March 2027. 

• In early October, Corteva (CTVA) will spin off its seed business into a new public company called Vylor, Inc.
• I have spent the last week working through Vylor’s Form 10 to get ready for the investor days on September 15, 2026 and for the start of trading.
• The distribution is targeted for October 1, 2026, and regular-way trading is expected to begin the same day.

Highlights

• June rubber exports surge 54.1% month-on-month to 114,010 tonnes

• China shipments fall 21.5% in H1, while Indonesia jumps 143.7%

• Rubber-product exports rise 13.4% in H1 to US$802.5 million

• Indonesia emerged as the second-largest destination by volume in the first half, with shipments jumping 143.7% to 47,782 tonnes.

• With the “naval war” now in full swing, the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract managed to settle yesterday at the highest level since May.                  
• In tandem with the naval war, we now have intensified military activity between Yemen-based Houthis and Saudi Arabia, compounding oil price strength and risk.                                   
• We have been premature in suggesting that crude oil prices may be peaking, but we would not chase the market since we believe ultra-high ULSD will take its economic toll.           

• AGC provided an exploration update at its Ngalula and Akyanga East targets, including strong gold grades from sampling.
• Results refine the geological model for drilling, and at Ngalula, mineralization was extended ~1.5km, with two parallel trends identified.
• In tandem, AGC continues to report strong drill results at Akyanga, recently releasing 12.30 g/t over 3.85m.

• Maritana Minerals Limited (ASX:MRT), is an emerging junior gold producer with 1.9moz of gold resources located around the Kalgoorlie and Coolgardie regions of Western Australia.
• MRT has released several updates over the past month that provide further details on ongoing site development at Black Swan and exploration activities.
• We make several adjustments to our modelling, which results in a modest increase in our valuation to $2.836/share, which represents a premium of 248% to the current share price.

• Nicola reported the results of an independent underground inspection at its 100%-owned Treasure Mountain silver-lead-zinc mine, as it targets a restart in 2027.
• After ~13 years in care and maintenance, the mine was found in better condition than expected, with both portals accessible.
• The inspection found no conditions preventing advancement and flagged a historical muck pile near the Level 1 portal that Nicola will sample as a potential source of near-term mill feed.

• No-HALEU Supply Chain Advantage: Unlike competitors deploying Gen IV advanced reactors, Holtec’s SMR-300 relies on standard Gen III+ pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel enriched to less than 5%. This bypasses the severe High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) fuel bottleneck, providing a highly predictable path to commercial fuel procurement.
• SMR Commercialization Realities: Despite S-1 marketing timelines targeting commercial operations by 2030 or 2031, a realistic utility-scale SMR-300 deployment will not occur until the mid-2030s. Utilities require first-of-a-kind (FOAK) operational data and standard design approval before making binding, balance-sheet-supported purchase commitments.
• The Palisades PPA Risk and Capital Allocation: The Palisades restart represents an unprecedented regulatory and operational gamble. While supported by a $1.52 billion DOE loan and a $300 million state grant, Holtec faces a strict contractual deadline of March 2027 to complete the restart. SMR-300 commercialization will consume most of the $750 million to $900 million IPO proceeds, but the UP-C corporate structure restricts public shareholders to a minority Class A economic stake, leaving operating control in the hands of the founder.

• Demand across the Americas rose 4%, as a rebound in US consumption offset a 7% drop in Latin America.
• Europe’s lubricants demand fell 4% in June, a second straight monthly decline, after rising for three straight months to April.
• Asia’s lubricants demand outside China fell 2% in June, a second straight monthly decline.

• CTM reported assays from five holes (1,229m) of its Phase 2 drill program at Buchans, focused on infill drilling at Lundberg and first-pass testing at the Horseshoe target.
• At Lundberg, 0.75% CuEq over 144.0m, including 1.00% CuEq over 76.0m, confirms broad near-surface mineralization.
• Lundberg drilling is now complete, and CTM has gained increased confidence in the system’s continuity, with an MRE on track for Q4/26.