Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Braskem: A Haircut Enters the Talks, but the Cash Is Still Missing

Braskem Standstill Shifts Focus to Structure

Braskem 1Q26: Event Risk Drives the Trade

Braskem 4Q25: Credit Story Turns to Survival

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Braskem’s 2Q26 EBITDA surged to R$5.25bn on temporarily wider petrochemical spreads, but statutory free operating cash flow remained negative and liquidity stayed tight.</li>
<li>The credit is now an active restructuring story, with defaults, creditor protection measures and potential new collateralization shifting bond value toward recovery and claim treatment.</li>
<li>We remain Neutral and prefer the 8.500% 2031s, where accrued-claim optionality offsets a modest price premium, while the 2050s offer higher recovery convexity.</li>
</ul>


Braskem’s 2Q26 EBITDA surged to R$5.25bn on temporarily wider petrochemical spreads, but statutory free operating cash flow remained negative and liquidity stayed tight.
The credit is now an active restructuring story, with defaults, creditor protection measures and potential new collateralization shifting bond value toward recovery and claim treatment.
We remain Neutral and prefer the 8.500% 2031s, where accrued-claim optionality offsets a modest price premium, while the 2050s offer higher recovery convexity.


Braskem 2Q26: Better Quarter, Harder Credit