Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Braskem 2Q26: Better Quarter, Harder Credit

Braskem Standstill Shifts Focus to Structure

Braskem 1Q26: Event Risk Drives the Trade

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Underweight from Neutral on valuation: Principal impairment and creditor-funded, potentially secured new money are now on the table, yet the 2028–2041 curve still averages $54.7, leaving limited recovery cushion.</li>
<li>Proposal cuts debt, but not enough: At 50-cent buybacks, debt-funded US$2.0bn new money nets only ~US$0.5bn gross reduction versus our US$4–5bn need; a group of bondholders demands US$3.0bn shareholder equity.</li>
<li>Rotate from the belly into the 2050s: At $43.3, ~15 points below the 2031s, they cushion better if consideration converges; Neutral, though preserved coupons and maturities would reverse the edge.</li>
</ul>


Underweight from Neutral on valuation: Principal impairment and creditor-funded, potentially secured new money are now on the table, yet the 2028–2041 curve still averages $54.7, leaving limited recovery cushion.
Proposal cuts debt, but not enough: At 50-cent buybacks, debt-funded US$2.0bn new money nets only ~US$0.5bn gross reduction versus our US$4–5bn need; a group of bondholders demands US$3.0bn shareholder equity.
Rotate from the belly into the 2050s: At $43.3, ~15 points below the 2031s, they cushion better if consideration converges; Neutral, though preserved coupons and maturities would reverse the edge.


Braskem: A Haircut Enters the Talks, but the Cash Is Still Missing