In today’s briefing:
- [Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Dec26: Vault-Genesis Deal Has Massive Passive Flows
- [Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec26 Rebal: No Changes Likely; Vault-Genesis Deal Flows
- Northern Star (NST AU): Gold Fields Rejection Justified, Sweetened Bid Likely
- Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Dec26 Rebal: ~US$7bn One-Way Flow, Expected To Grow
- Geo Energy: Direct Hormuz Play, Limited by Domestic Reforms
- Aequitas: Red Avenue New Materials A/H IPO Trading – Weak Insti and Retail Demand
- Stylam Industries: Promoter Change, A New Era?
- Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review – 25 Sep ’26
- Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Evolving Beyond Iron Ore as Copper Becomes the Second Earnings Engine
- Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Focus on VLO: Strong Position with Heavy-Crude Advantage…
[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Dec26: Vault-Genesis Deal Has Massive Passive Flows
- The MV Junior Gold Miners index tracks the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. Lots of AUM on the ETF means big impact sometimes.
- There will be no index changes for the December 2026 rebal event. However, we currently expect a one-way flow of US$43mm for December 2026 due to capping/re-capping.
- The Vault-Genesis deal is expected to complete before the December 2026 rebal. Vault faces over two months of ADV to sell and Genesis over a month to buy, both US$1bn+.
[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec26 Rebal: No Changes Likely; Vault-Genesis Deal Flows
- The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large- and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. It underlies the biggest listed sector ETF (GDX).
- We currently don’t see any index changes for the December 2026 rebal. The potential ADDs would need to significantly outperform to trigger an index change.
- The Vault-Genesis deal is likely to complete before the December 2026 rebal and is expected to trigger passive flows in MV Global Gold and MV Junior Gold Miners indices.
Northern Star (NST AU): Gold Fields Rejection Justified, Sweetened Bid Likely
- Northern Star Resources (NST AU) rejected Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)‘s proposal (0.3125 shares plus A$7.25 cash, implied A$27.00, 22.1% premium). It cited undervaluation, scrip risk, opportunistic timing and onerous conditions.
- Elliott, the key activist, needs a higher offer. Its return would be modest; NST’s turnaround has barely started; Gold Fields keeps most synergies; and hard exclusivity shuts out rival bidders.
- Gold Fields will likely return at around A$28–30, with more cash and no hard exclusivity. Synergies and past deals support this, but the deal’s size acts as a constraint.
Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Dec26 Rebal: ~US$7bn One-Way Flow, Expected To Grow
- The SP Select Sector indices are a family of 11 sector-specific indices derived from the SP 500 index based on GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) classifications.
- Intra-Review changes from two M&A deals and a spin-off could trigger Select Sector flows before the December 2026 rebalance.
- We expect one-way flows of ~US$7bn across the Select Sector indices, which should grow as the December 2026 rebalance approaches.
Geo Energy: Direct Hormuz Play, Limited by Domestic Reforms
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Structural cost reset, not a coal-price bet.
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The MBJ integrated haul road + barging chain (capex ~US$150 mil) removes third-party trucking on TRA coal and takes ~US$7–8/t out of the annual cost base.
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That is a self-help margin gain that survives a flat coal price.
Aequitas: Red Avenue New Materials A/H IPO Trading – Weak Insti and Retail Demand
- Red Avenue New Materials Group (RANMG HK) raised ~US$380m in its Hong Kong IPO.
- It operates across rubber additives for tyres and other chemical products, electronic materials, and fully biodegradable materials.
- In this note, we look at its past performance, valuation, and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.
Stylam Industries: Promoter Change, A New Era?
- Aica-Kogyo of Japan now holds 40% of Stylam and sits as joint-promoter, after one branch of the founding Gupta family exited entirely and another stayed on to run the company.
- A boardroom rift that had capped Stylam’s valuation multiple is now resolved, and HDFC Securities has re-rated the stock on governance clarity alone, before counting any Aica synergy.
- The real story is not the stake sale, it’s the asymmetry: who left, who stayed, and what that split implies for capital allocation, exports and the next capacity cycle.
Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review – 25 Sep ’26
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Asia’s spare capacity is filling gaps left by tighter US, European and Middle East supply, but recovering demand and fourth-quarter maintenance will test its limits.
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Traditional suppliers are losing export availability, giving Asian producers more room to meet requirements in the US, Europe and other overseas markets.
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The response spans the region, with South Korea, Taiwan, India, Singapore and China all sending cargoes beyond Asia.
Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Evolving Beyond Iron Ore as Copper Becomes the Second Earnings Engine
- Copper delivered 36% of divisional EBITDA in H1 FY26 (US$5.7bn, 66% margin), up from 6.5% in H2 FY23, as Oyu Tolgoi underground ramps up.
- Iron ore’s share has halved to 43%, with EBITDA/t down 65% from its peak; capex is rotating to Simandou, the Pilbara replacement, lithium, and aluminum, while copper enters harvest.
- Valuation at 13.7x FY26e P/E, 7.3x EV/EBITDA and 5.1% yield. We analyze the Rio Tinto (RIO US) pivot
Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Focus on VLO: Strong Position with Heavy-Crude Advantage…
- New York awarded 1.7 GW of renewable and energy storage projects backed by more than US$3.7 billion in investment, targeting operation by 2030.
- Meanwhile, the Trump administration is preparing to relax federal fuel economy standards, lowering the 2031 target to 34.5 mpg and rolling back EV-supportive policies, drawing criticism from environmental groups.
- The EPA also proposed repealing Biden-era power plant rules that required carbon capture or closure, a move advocates say could raise emissions, notably in Georgia.
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