Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Northern Star Resources, Corteva , Global Lithium Resources Ltd, Crude Oil, Shandong Linuo Pharmaceutical Packaging, EcoCeres, Meren Energy, Nativo Resources, Oil States International, Inc, RHI Magnesita and more

• For September 2026, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$26bn.
• The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~46%; and a year-to-date average of ~45%.
• The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.

• Corteva (CTVA) to complete the spin-off of its Seed business as Vylor (VYLR) on October 1, 2026. 1:1 distribution, tax-free, regular way trading of both begins the same day.
• Our SOTP fair value is $80.00/share. Vylor at $62.00 (15.0x FY27E EBITDA) and New Corteva at $18.00 (9.0x FY27E EBITDA).
• We prefer Vylor given it is larger, higher-margin, faster growing, with scarcity value and licensing upside. New Corteva is a quality franchise but more cyclical and carrying legacy liabilities.

• Global Lithium Resources (GL1) signed a definitive agreement to be acquired by Titan Lithium for A$1.15/share.
• Titan Lithium provided a credit facility of up to A$120m to advance Manna mine development during acquisition.
• Foreign Investment Review Board approval is a hurdle due to potential ties between Titan Lithium and Chinese entities.

• The U.S. has apparently, via mediators, sent its own seven-day “trust building” proposal to Tehran which suggests it involves the issue of “sequencing.”   
• That is, Iran wants the U.S. to end its blockade and release financial assets first, with Iran then “opening” the Strait of Hormuz at the end of the seven days.                                         
• We are speculating that the U.S. wants Iran to “open” the Strait first, and then talk about the blockade and financial assets, to be followed by the nuclear issues.           

• Shandong Linuo Pharmaceutical Packaging Co.,Ltd. is an established Chinese provider of borosilicate technical glass, specializing in pharmaceutical glass packaging and household heat-resistant glass.
• The company ranked ninth in China’s pharmaceutical glass packaging market and first in China’s household heat-resistant glass market by sales revenue in 2025.
• The company reported a decrease in profit for FY2025 and negative net cash from operating activities for FY2025 and H1 2026.

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• A rare pure-play listing. EcoCeres, a Bain-backed Hong Kong producer of sustainable aviation fuel, targets a ~US$1bn IPO by end-2026, in a market created by law.
• It lists near a margin peak. The 2026 oil shock inflated SAF profits; in 2024, oversupply more than halved Neste’s margins. Value it on mid-cycle earnings, not the windfall.
• Price discipline matters. Law-mandated green sectors (solar, wind, renewable fuels) trade at 6–12x EV/EBITDA. The reported US$5bn valuation implies ~14x. Engage below US$3.5bn; pass above US$5bn.

• On 18 September, Nativo announced that it had signed a binding letter of intent with a Bermuda-based multi-asset precious metal mining company (Chancery Royalty Limited) for $3.5m worth of project finance and an equity subscription worth an aggregate £0.6m.
• The $3.5m worth of project finance will be exclusively applied to Phase One of Nativo’s ‘La Patona’ gold ore processing plant in Peru, and it is designed to cover all remaining construction and commissioning costs.
• The £0.6m of equity enables Nativo to start work immediately, but it can be applied to other aspects of the business. 

• The Vesuvius Proposal represents an Operational Dream but a Financial and Regulatory Nightmare: Highly complementary product sets (Vesuvius’s flow control/foundry and RHI’s basic refractories) but the heavily debt-funded proposal of £1.37 billion (at 551 pence per share) would push RHIM’s leverage well above its comfort zone and covenants during a cyclical low.
• Antitrust Blockades in India and Europe are Inevitable: India’s Competition Commission (CCI) and the European Commission will demand heavy structural divestments in continuous casting flow control (slide gates/stoppers) and unshaped monolithics, severely eroding the targeted €80 million to €100 million in potential purchasing and SG&A synergies.
• Transition to Gustavo Franco Signals a Structural Shift to Capital Discipline: With Stefan Borgas retiring on November 1, 2026, Franco’s background in the high-margin, low-cost Latin American mining operations suggests a pivot toward conserving cash, completing the integration of the €391 million Resco acquisition, and optimizing the existing plant network over purely dilutive megadeals.