In today’s briefing:
- BBNI IJ: When Credit Growth Outruns Earning Power
BBNI IJ: When Credit Growth Outruns Earning Power
- Bottom line: BBNI is the only one of Indonesia’s four largest banks below book value (0.76x versus BMRI 1.34x, BBRI 1.48x, BBCA 2.76x); we rate it BULLISH, moderate-to-low conviction.
- What the price implies: at Rp3,430, a perpetual ROE of about 9.9% — below FY2025 normalized ROE of 12.89% and the 1H26 run-rate of roughly 12.7%–12.9%.
- Why conviction is low: funding, margin and capital pressure has not been shown to stop; scenarios are model assumptions, not forecasts, and do not show earning power has stabilized.
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