Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |4 /5 as SPX Weekly Wins Continue;Blow Out NFP Report ! BoJ’s Amamiya “THE ONE” ? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |4 /5 as SPX Weekly Wins Continue;Blow Out NFP Report ! BoJ’s Amamiya “THE ONE” ?
  • China A-Share Consumer Staples: Good Outperformance
  • Macau Gaming Stocks Up, but Bigger Gains Ahead as Tailwinds Forming Faster than Official Forecast
  • The Innovations Portfolio – Week Eleven

Good Morning Japan |4 /5 as SPX Weekly Wins Continue;Blow Out NFP Report ! BoJ’s Amamiya “THE ONE” ?

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  SPX Caps another winning week – now 4/5 for the year;  Blow out Jobs report but Wages slowing – Goldilocks ? Powell speaks this week as DIS, UBER report.
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; Yen weakens to 132 handle as Amimiya forerunner for BOJ Governor;  Inbound resurgence reflecting in skyrocketing hotel rates;  Earnings this week – Watch Softbank
  • DAILY NUGGETS. NO ROCKING OF THE BOAT – BOJ Deputy Amamiya is set to take the mantle of leadership at the BOJ.

China A-Share Consumer Staples: Good Outperformance

By Osbert Tang, CFA


Macau Gaming Stocks Up, but Bigger Gains Ahead as Tailwinds Forming Faster than Official Forecast

By Howard J Klein

  • January’s big beat in Macau GGR indicative of our bull scenario call for a US$18b 2023 GGR.
  • Despite recent upside moves, we continue to believe Macau-centric stocks present a solid entry point level at this time.
  • The sector remains oversold as forward EBITDA estimates do not entirely bake in what we believe are continuing strong catalysts for the sector.

The Innovations Portfolio – Week Eleven

By Pyari Menon

  • The three companies we write about this week are Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO US), Ford Motor Co (F US) and Sonoco Products Co (SON US) 
  • For the eleven weeks since inception ended 3 Feb the combined innovation portfolio was +4.6%, versus DJIA +.5%, S&P500 +4.3%, Nasdaq +7.7%, Russell2000 +7.3%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +5.7%, all in US$ terms
  • Ironically or aptly it was at “China Lake” in California that the infrared technology in the AIM-9X Sidewinder missile that brought down the “spy/weather” balloon was developed.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEM Weekly (3 Feb 2023): China PMI and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • GEM Weekly (3 Feb 2023): China PMI, South Korean Trade and Inflation Data; Baidu

GEM Weekly (3 Feb 2023): China PMI, South Korean Trade and Inflation Data; Baidu

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
  • Macro data points: Chinese PMI data, South Korean imports, exports, and inflation.
  • Companies mentioned:Baidu (9888 HK) (to launch ChatGPT bot, BlackRock ups its stake)

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Travel and Tourism: Theme of the Year and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Travel and Tourism: Theme of the Year
  • Japan Weekly | Z Holdings, Money Forward, Screen, Lasertec
  • Life Insurance: Is This Correction Deep Enough to Add?

Travel and Tourism: Theme of the Year

By Nitin Mangal

  • Travel and Tourism was one of the forefronts in the 2023-24 union budget speech.
  • While majority of the sectors have seen revival, the travel and tourism sector is still in recovery mode that awaits extraordinary growth.
  • Given the recent uptick in sectoral tailwinds and the conscious push by the government, travel and tourism looks set to be one of the ‘Theme of the year’.

Japan Weekly | Z Holdings, Money Forward, Screen, Lasertec

By Mark Chadwick

  • Wage pressures continue to build in Japan. The country’s largest employer of part-time workers, AEON, is raising wages. Same goes for systems operator, TIS
  • It has been a disappointing year for shareholders of Z Holdings – perhaps a management change and new round of restructuring will help
  • Divergent fortunes for SPE names Screen and Lasertec. Suspect this has more to do with short term positioning. The fundamentals are broadly similar

Life Insurance: Is This Correction Deep Enough to Add?

By Nurture Capital Advisory

  • A primer to Life Insurance industry in India – industry size, breaking down key concepts, valuation.
  • A relatively better consumption theme compared to other expensive names with strong fundamentals, underlying growth and valuations.
  • However, it’s a late cycle play and while downside is protected, upside is capped as well. 

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | SPX Breakout but After-Hours Earnings Sap FOMO; Sony Beat; Pana-Still Deciding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | SPX Breakout but After-Hours Earnings Sap FOMO; Sony Beat; Pana-Still Deciding
  • Losses Blow Out at China’s Airlines as Passengers Dip to 12-Year Low
  • APAC Sees 22% Drop in M&As While India Flourishes: Report
  • Sany Heavy, Zoomlion Warn of Tumbling Profits on Covid-Hit Economy
  • Shroom Shmooz: Controversies Surrounding Psychedelic Patents

Good Morning Japan | SPX Breakout but After-Hours Earnings Sap FOMO; Sony Beat; Pana-Still Deciding

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. Another strong post Fed Day with SPX breaks 4100 level; Slew of big tech after hours: AMZN; Google, AAPL-Mkt doesn’t like; Ford, not to be left out, MISSES
  • JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 128.69;  Mgmt Transitions,  Sony and Z-HD make changes; Earnings:  Sony +ve;  -ve Panasonic (but special case); Murata – last of bad news ?
  • DAILY NUGGETS. Panasonic – Still deciding. Seems we have to wait a bit longer on the impact of the IRA credits.

Losses Blow Out at China’s Airlines as Passengers Dip to 12-Year Low

By Caixin Global

  • China’s civil aviation industry plunged deeper into the red in 2022 as Covid restrictions effectively shut down international travel
  • However, there are hopes things may turn around quickly after the abandonment of the “zero-Covid” strategy last month
  • The country’s airline companies posted a combined loss of 216 billion yuan ($31.8 billion) last year, widening from 84.3 billion yuan in 2021 and 94.7 billion in 2020

APAC Sees 22% Drop in M&As While India Flourishes: Report

By Tech in Asia

  • M&A deals in the Asia Pacific cooled down in 2022, with the region’s overall transaction value dropping 22% year on year
  • India, however, bucked this trend by logging an all-time high for both strategic M&A deal volume and value
  • In Japan, while deal value fell by 20% in the first nine months of 2022, the volume remained at the same level as the previous year, suggesting a rise in small deals

Sany Heavy, Zoomlion Warn of Tumbling Profits on Covid-Hit Economy

By Caixin Global

  • A slowing economy due to repeated Covid-19 outbreaks and subsequent lockdowns delivered a one-two punch to Sany Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. last year
  • The company attributed the lackluster earnings estimate to the macroeconomic slowdown, which saw China’s GDP growth come in at the second-slowest in more than four decades
  • Sany’s profit warning serves as an indication of how China’s domestic construction machinery industry is struggling.

Shroom Shmooz: Controversies Surrounding Psychedelic Patents

By Water Tower Research

  • The resurgence of interest in psychedelic science and research, particularly since 2017, reinforced by the mental health consequences of the pandemic, has resulted in a significant pick-up in active clinical trials investigating the therapeutic value of a variety of psychedelics.
  • This, in turn, has led to a proliferation of patent applications as psychedelic drug developers seek to protect the intellectual property (IP) of their drug development efforts.
  • The United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) has been inundated by hundreds of published patent applications on a variety of psychedelic compounds, led by psilocybin, with many more that have been filed provisionally.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Blast off ! “Disinflation Process Has Started”;AMD Spurs Tech Rally; Meta Beats and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Blast off ! “Disinflation Process Has Started”;AMD Spurs Tech Rally; Meta Beats
  • China Internet CNY Holiday Update: Gaming Performed Better than Ads and ECom

Good Morning Japan | Blast off ! “Disinflation Process Has Started”;AMD Spurs Tech Rally; Meta Beats

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  US stocks rally on Fed paus(ing); Duration gets extended spurring +5% SOX move; AMD results provide comfort for Semis; Meta Beats !  Off to the races!
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.2% vs Cash; Yen Stronger at USDJPY 129.02 post Fed;  BOJ shows commitment buying  $180 bn JGBs in Jan;   Earnings: Positive Keyence; Negative Kyocera; Disaster Sumi Chemicals.
  • DAILY NUGGETS. Race for Talent. Japan retail major lifts wages, as (wage) hike momentum gathers. Issue for Japan is lack of workers !

China Internet CNY Holiday Update: Gaming Performed Better than Ads and ECom

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect online gaming has a better performance: 1) improved content supply and 2) strong user demand for social interactions in top games like Tencent’s HOK and NetEase’s Egg Party.
  • We suggest that eCommerce and advertising have relatively weak performances in January because offline consumption enjoyed faster rebound and attracted users away from online platforms.
  • We are more positive about Tencent in C1Q23, and we expect that major ads platforms like Kuaishou, Baidu, Bili, iQIYI, and Weibo will have the fastest YoY growth in C2Q23.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |Fed Hike and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |Fed Hike, Powell Speech ? Equities Beyond as Optimism Abounds,from Spotify to GM
  • China’s Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

Good Morning Japan |Fed Hike, Powell Speech ? Equities Beyond as Optimism Abounds,from Spotify to GM

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SPX makes  up for yesterday’s loss and more; Markets look past Fed and focus on earnings recovery;  Its all about the Pause;   GM Beats but CAT misses; Awaiting AAPL
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.6% Cash; USDJPY 130.11; Labor Shortages worsening (again), Firms desperate;  BYD seeks to Capture JP EV Market;   Komatsu Beats; Lasertec Misses.
  • DAILY NUGGETS. 6h 37m: The Average Time Spent Using the Internet.  Japan the outlier..for the better ?

China’s Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

By Stanley Tsai, CFA

  • The Jan. PMI readings corroborate what investors had already known over the break. But it is noteworthy that SMEs appear much less upbeat than large corporations.  
  • SMEs account for 60% of GDP and an even higher proportion of job creation. Policy support has been keeping many of them afloat throughout the pandemic. 
  • As the deadline on the PBOC’s SME support program is fast approaching, small regional banks may bear the brunt of the impact on the financial system.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |RETREAT ! SPX Fails at 4100 (Again) Ahead of Fed; Calls for More Activists in JP and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |RETREAT ! SPX Fails at 4100 (Again) Ahead of Fed; Calls for More Activists in JP
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended January 27, 2023

Good Morning Japan |RETREAT ! SPX Fails at 4100 (Again) Ahead of Fed; Calls for More Activists in JP

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SPX -1.2% ahead of Fed; Tech pulls back after torrid MTD; Eyes on Fed as Consensus converges on 25bp hike; More earnings ahead as FAANG(you get it) this week
  • JAPAN. NKY Futs  vs CASh -0.1%; USDJPY 130.44. ; Calls for more Activists?! Foreign Tourist Spend normalizes; KEPCO Nuclear plant powers down; Notable Earnings beats:  OLC, Omron; NEC; Misses: Canon
  • DAILY NUGGETS. Suzuki embraces carbon neutrality in a different form – yes a very different form…see below !

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended January 27, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended January 27, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 20.0% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 2.5%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.4%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 4.3%).
  • Advanced Transportation Solutions (69% of the index) drove the outperformance, rising 30.7% , while Energy Technology (9% of index) was up 1.8% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 1.9%.
  • Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 26.4x versus 18.3x for the S&P 500.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |SPX Break Out In Sight ! ; PCE Inflation Delivers; Fed +25bps ? ; Awful INTEL and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |SPX Break Out In Sight ! ; PCE Inflation Delivers; Fed +25bps ? ; Awful INTEL
  • Chinese New Year Travel Market: Roundup And Implications
  • The Innovations Portfolio – Week Ten
  • China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

Good Morning Japan |SPX Break Out In Sight ! ; PCE Inflation Delivers; Fed +25bps ? ; Awful INTEL

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  SPX positive on day, +2.5%WoW; SOX +5.4%WoW;  PCE Inflation sets stage for benign Fed; INTEL, KLC puts damper on tech party; TELSA delivers again; AMEX not seeing consumer weakness;
  • JAPAN. NKY Futs vs Cash +0.1%; USDJPY 129.88; Tokyo Dec CPI highest since 1981; GS sees highest base pay hike in decades.;  Fanuc 3Q beats on Robots; Sagawa hikes prices
  • DAILY. NUGGETS. Stealth Immigration – Foreigner workers in Japan hit all time high 1.82 million/2.7% of labour force. Clear policy on Immigration needed to help secure Japan’s  future.

Chinese New Year Travel Market: Roundup And Implications

By Osbert Tang, CFA


The Innovations Portfolio – Week Ten

By Pyari Menon

  • The three companies we write about this week are Roche Holding Ltd (ROG VX) , Siemens Healthineers AG (SHL GR) and E Ink Holdings (8069 TT) 
  • For the ten weeks since inception ended 27 Jan the combined innovation portfolio was +4.0%, versus DJIA +.7%, S&P500 +2.7%, Nasdaq +4.3%, Russell2000 +3.3%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +5.1%, all in US$ terms
  • For the first time in decades IBM lost its top position in patent registrations in US. IBM’s patent count declined 44% to 4,743 patents in 2022, versus Samsung Electronics’ 8,513

China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

By Stanley Tsai, CFA

  • We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.
  • Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank’s easing bias will likely continue.
  • We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers > insurers > banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.27) – Surgical Robots New Policy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.27) – Surgical Robots New Policy, COVID-19 Update, Policy Vacuum Period
  • Japan Weekly | Bullish Markets, Suzuki, Shin-Etsu
  • Sands China Ltd: Breakthrough to Profitability Is First Forerunner of Macau Recovery Cycle

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.27) – Surgical Robots New Policy, COVID-19 Update, Policy Vacuum Period

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • New policy was released to support the development of surgical robots in China, which would be short-term catalyst for related companies, but it may not bring high profits.
  • In fact, since March, it may not be appropriate for healthcare companies to use the COVID-19 as a reason if their performance in the following months is not as expected.
  • Before DRGs/DIP policy becomes very “lethal”, there is a “policy vacuum period” in the next two or three years, which is a good opportunity to go long in China healthcare.

Japan Weekly | Bullish Markets, Suzuki, Shin-Etsu

By Mark Chadwick

  • Global markets continued positive momentum on peaking in global inflation and expectations that the rate hike cycle is approaching its end
  • There is a slew of economic data next week and some major US tech company results announcements. Japanese earnings announcements get into full swing
  • Suzuki was the start performer last week as investors cheered the company’s new mid-term strategy and decarbonization plans

Sands China Ltd: Breakthrough to Profitability Is First Forerunner of Macau Recovery Cycle

By Howard J Klein

  • Revenues for 2022 just missed forecast, but enough to put the Macau market share leader over the top and into positive profit territory.
  • Indications during CNY show average bet of US$101 per hand clearly put premium mass play back in action with mass segment spurts evident during the holiday.
  • CNY arrivals hit 90,000 on Tuesday, best in three years. Current run rate now reaching 40% of pre-covid baseline 2019.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): SPAC Talk: The Lost Cash Burden for De-SPACs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • SPAC Talk: The Lost Cash Burden for De-SPACs

SPAC Talk: The Lost Cash Burden for De-SPACs

By Water Tower Research

  • Same old in the IPO market…. The start of 2023 has a familiar ring to it. Much like the back end of the 2022, the SPAC IPO market continues to show little signs of life.
  • As we approach the end of the first month of the new year, there have been no additions to the sole SPAC IPO that was priced in early January, and as yet, still no new filings S1 registrations this year.
  • In fact, there have been 12 S1 withdrawals or abandonments with the queue of prospective SPACs looking to IPO continuing to dwindle.

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