
In today’s briefing:
- If Fed Chair Is Dismissed, Then How Will Gold React?
- Japan Strategy | Modest Gains Amid Mounting Uncertainty
- Thematic Report: Can Tariffs Undermine India’s Pharma Advantage?
- Charted Insights: NBFCs Continue to Outpace Industry Credit Growth — Stronger, Faster, Deeper
- AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 18/07/2025
- Hong Kong’s IPO Boom Breathes Life Into Office Sector, but Rents Still Under Pressure

If Fed Chair Is Dismissed, Then How Will Gold React?
- The potential dismissal of the Federal Reserve Chair by Trump has created uncertainty in the markets. In the short term, this situation is favorable for gold for multiple reasons.
- A declining U.S. dollar and increasing inflation expectations, fueled by worries regarding the independence of central banks, are expected to elevate gold prices.
- In spite of increasing prices and a rise in call options, the implied volatility for gold has continued to decrease, notwithstanding a mild uptick observed recently.
Japan Strategy | Modest Gains Amid Mounting Uncertainty
- The Nikkei 225 rose 0.6% last week, a measured gain underpinned by strength in technology and defensives, despite intensifying headwinds from U.S. trade policy, domestic political fragility, and currency volatility.
- The JPY weakened 0.8% vs USD, closing at 148.67. Japanese bonds came under pressure, with 10Y JGBs +3bps to 1.53%, reflecting nerves ahead of this weekend’s Upper House elections
- Seven & i shares fell 13% this week after Alimentation Couche-Tard (ACT) withdrew its ¥2,600 acquisition offer
Thematic Report: Can Tariffs Undermine India’s Pharma Advantage?
- India is the largest exporter of generic medicines, contributing 20% to global supply, and accounts for 6% of the world’s API production.
- India’s pharma sector offers up to 75% savings in R&D and 55% in manufacturing versus the US, making it essential despite tariff threats.
- India’s CRDMO sector is expanding rapidly, with a projected market size of USD 14 billion by 2028, driven by increased demand for biologics and integrated manufacturing solutions.
Charted Insights: NBFCs Continue to Outpace Industry Credit Growth — Stronger, Faster, Deeper
- NBFCs are consistently delivering higher credit growth than the overall lending industry across most asset classes—driven by demand from underserved segments and enabled by tech-led agility.
- From FY20–25, NBFCs saw higher CAGR in 5 of the 7 loan segments, and this trend is projected to continue through FY26—reinforcing their systemic importance in India’s credit landscape.
- NBFCs are no longer niche lenders. With higher market share in fast-growing segments like personal loans, MSME, microfinance, and consumer durables, they are outgrowing the systemic pace—indicating stronger tailwinds
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 18/07/2025
- AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: AB wells deliver flow rates above expectations – Current production ranges between 4,600 and 4,800 bbl/d driven by strong performance from two new horizontal wells at Alberta Llanos (AB).
- AB-HZ5, onstream for ~2 weeks, is producing 1,790 bbl/d (895 bbl/d net to Arrow), while AB-HZ4, online for over a month, continues to produce 880 bbl/d (440 bbl/d net).
- Both wells are outperforming expectations in terms of flow rates and pressure, which may positively impact reserves estimates.
Hong Kong’s IPO Boom Breathes Life Into Office Sector, but Rents Still Under Pressure
- Hong Kong’s booming IPO market is fueling a partial rebound in the city’s beleaguered office sector, with Central’s premium business district leading the recovery.
- However, persistently high vacancy rates citywide mean rents are expected to keep falling throughout 2025, according to a report released Monday by CBRE, the real estate services company.
- The report shows Hong Kong’s office net absorption — the net change in leased space accounting for new leases, expansions and vacancies — turned positive in the second quarter of 2025. The market recorded 147,700 square feet (13,700 square meters) of net take-up, breaking a two-quarter streak of negative figures and signaling an improvement in leasing activity.