AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

CoreWeave, Inc. provides software solutions and cloud services. The Company offers cloud infrastructure platform that manages the complexity of engineering, assembling, running, and monitoring state-of-the-art infrastructure at a massive scale to deliver high performance and efficiency to AI workloads. CoreWeave serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>The $2.25bn convertible issuance underscores strong bond-market confidence in AI infrastructure, but equity markets are increasingly focused on leverage, dilution, and refinancing risk.</li>
<li>With repeated debt raises and high fixed obligations relative to revenue, CoreWeave’s growth model is becoming more dependent on capital-market access than operating leverage.</li>
<li>As credit conditions tighten across data-centre and infrastructure lending, the divergence between bondholder confidence and equity caution highlights a narrowing margin for error.</li>
</ul>


The $2.25bn convertible issuance underscores strong bond-market confidence in AI infrastructure, but equity markets are increasingly focused on leverage, dilution, and refinancing risk.
With repeated debt raises and high fixed obligations relative to revenue, CoreWeave’s growth model is becoming more dependent on capital-market access than operating leverage.
As credit conditions tighten across data-centre and infrastructure lending, the divergence between bondholder confidence and equity caution highlights a narrowing margin for error.


CoreWeave’s AI Expansion Is Being Financed Forward

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

<ul>
<li>Intel hired Tan specifically for his deep ecosystem ties. Demanding he wield that influence while having zero financial footprint in the industry is a naive contradiction.</li>
<li>The Rivos bidding war was a tactical masterclass that established a valuation floor and forced a competitor to pay a premium.</li>
<li>While the media frets over portfolio disclosures, Tan has doubled the stock and secured billions in capital in a market otherwise built on circular debt bubbles.</li>
</ul>


Intel hired Tan specifically for his deep ecosystem ties. Demanding he wield that influence while having zero financial footprint in the industry is a naive contradiction.
The Rivos bidding war was a tactical masterclass that established a valuation floor and forced a competitor to pay a premium.
While the media frets over portfolio disclosures, Tan has doubled the stock and secured billions in capital in a market otherwise built on circular debt bubbles.


CEO With Muddy Boots: Why Intel Needs Lip-Bu Tan’s Baggage

<ul>
<li>Intel's supply constraints aren't manufacturing issues; three independent demand drivers have converged simultaneously, something which the firm seemed to have under-modelled.  </li>
<li>Hyperscalers are abandoning their flexible procurement model to secure multi-year CPU commitments for the first time, indicating structural demand shifts rather than temporary spikes.</li>
<li>Even TSMC-manufactured Intel products are sold out, proving this is demand-driven across both internal and outsourced capacity.</li>
</ul>


Intel's supply constraints aren't manufacturing issues; three independent demand drivers have converged simultaneously, something which the firm seemed to have under-modelled.  
Hyperscalers are abandoning their flexible procurement model to secure multi-year CPU commitments for the first time, indicating structural demand shifts rather than temporary spikes.
Even TSMC-manufactured Intel products are sold out, proving this is demand-driven across both internal and outsourced capacity.


The Structural Forces Behind Intel's Supply Squeeze

<ul>
<li>Multiple industry checks now indicate that Apple is preparing to source its entry-level M-series processors from Intel’s 18A node with EMIB-T packaging as early as 2027.</li>
<li>The revenue impact will be modest, but the signalling value is enormous: Apple does not hand out advanced-node access unless the foundry roadmap is de-risked.</li>
<li>This development aligns directly with the structural shifts we’ve been highlighting; Intel’s packaging-first wedge, foundry credibility, and TSMC’s overcapacity creating space for second-sourcing.</li>
</ul>


Multiple industry checks now indicate that Apple is preparing to source its entry-level M-series processors from Intel’s 18A node with EMIB-T packaging as early as 2027.
The revenue impact will be modest, but the signalling value is enormous: Apple does not hand out advanced-node access unless the foundry roadmap is de-risked.
This development aligns directly with the structural shifts we’ve been highlighting; Intel’s packaging-first wedge, foundry credibility, and TSMC’s overcapacity creating space for second-sourcing.


Apple’s 18A Test Case Is the Inflection Intel Needed

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

<ul>
<li>Nvidia’s warranty liabilities have ballooned from $1.29B in Q4 FY25 to $2.7B in Q3 FY26, with actual warranty spending surging 14× YoY.</li>
<li>The jump comes as Blackwell-generation racks grow hotter, denser and more complex (up to 2 million individual parts), driving higher expected incident rates.</li>
<li>Rising warranty reserves paired with rising finished-goods inventory suggest the same underlying tension that systems are getting harder to operate and harder to absorb downstream.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia’s warranty liabilities have ballooned from $1.29B in Q4 FY25 to $2.7B in Q3 FY26, with actual warranty spending surging 14× YoY.
The jump comes as Blackwell-generation racks grow hotter, denser and more complex (up to 2 million individual parts), driving higher expected incident rates.
Rising warranty reserves paired with rising finished-goods inventory suggest the same underlying tension that systems are getting harder to operate and harder to absorb downstream.


The Cost of Running Hot: Nvidia's Warranty Reserves Spike 168%

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Raghav's professional journey has seen contributions in media outlets and digital platforms, where he honed his ability to distil complex subjects into accessible narratives for a diverse audience. 

Within this domain, Raghav also began cultivating the skill to simplify intricate financial and geopolitical topics, making them both—impactful and relatable.

Raghav Vashisht
AI | Semiconductors | Commodities
• Mint Finance

CoreWeave’s AI Expansion Is Being Financed Forward

Bond market confidence in AI infrastructure is strong, but equity markets are concerned about leverage and refinancing risk as CoreWeave's growth...

Mint Finance

CEO With Muddy Boots: Why Intel Needs Lip-Bu Tan’s Baggage

Intel hired Lip-Bu Tan for his industry connections, but expecting him to use them without financial involvement is naive.

Mint Finance

The Structural Forces Behind Intel's Supply Squeeze

Intel is facing supply constraints due to three simultaneous demand drivers, including hyperscalers securing multi-year CPU commitments, leading...

Mint Finance

Apple’s 18A Test Case Is the Inflection Intel Needed

Apple sourcing entry-level M-series processors from Intel's 18A node signals a shift in the industry landscape towards Intel's packaging-first...

Mint Finance

The Cost of Running Hot: Nvidia's Warranty Reserves Spike 168%

Nvidia's warranty liabilities have doubled in a year due to increasing complexity and heat in their Blackwell-generation racks, leading to higher...

Mint Finance

CoreWeave’s AI Expansion Is Being Financed Forward

​Bond market confidence in AI infrastructure is strong, but equity markets are concerned about leverage and refinancing risk as CoreWeave's growth...

Mint Finance

CEO With Muddy Boots: Why Intel Needs Lip-Bu Tan’s Baggage

​Intel hired Lip-Bu Tan for his industry connections, but expecting him to use them without financial involvement is naive.

Mint Finance

The Structural Forces Behind Intel's Supply Squeeze

​Intel is facing supply constraints due to three simultaneous demand drivers, including hyperscalers securing multi-year CPU commitments, leading...

Mint Finance

Apple’s 18A Test Case Is the Inflection Intel Needed

​Apple sourcing entry-level M-series processors from Intel's 18A node signals a shift in the industry landscape towards Intel's packaging-first...

Mint Finance

The Cost of Running Hot: Nvidia's Warranty Reserves Spike 168%

​Nvidia's warranty liabilities have doubled in a year due to increasing complexity and heat in their Blackwell-generation racks, leading to higher...

Mint Finance

Bond market confidence in AI infrastructure is strong, but equity markets are concerned about leverage and refinancing risk as CoreWeave's growth...

Intel hired Lip-Bu Tan for his industry connections, but expecting him to use them without financial involvement is naive.

Intel is facing supply constraints due to three simultaneous demand drivers, including hyperscalers securing multi-year CPU commitments, leading...

Apple sourcing entry-level M-series processors from Intel's 18A node signals a shift in the industry landscape towards Intel's packaging-first...

Nvidia's warranty liabilities have doubled in a year due to increasing complexity and heat in their Blackwell-generation racks, leading to higher...