AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

<ul>
<li>Multiple industry checks now indicate that Apple is preparing to source its entry-level M-series processors from Intel’s 18A node with EMIB-T packaging as early as 2027.</li>
<li>The revenue impact will be modest, but the signalling value is enormous: Apple does not hand out advanced-node access unless the foundry roadmap is de-risked.</li>
<li>This development aligns directly with the structural shifts we’ve been highlighting; Intel’s packaging-first wedge, foundry credibility, and TSMC’s overcapacity creating space for second-sourcing.</li>
</ul>


Multiple industry checks now indicate that Apple is preparing to source its entry-level M-series processors from Intel’s 18A node with EMIB-T packaging as early as 2027.
The revenue impact will be modest, but the signalling value is enormous: Apple does not hand out advanced-node access unless the foundry roadmap is de-risked.
This development aligns directly with the structural shifts we’ve been highlighting; Intel’s packaging-first wedge, foundry credibility, and TSMC’s overcapacity creating space for second-sourcing.


Apple’s 18A Test Case Is the Inflection Intel Needed

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

<ul>
<li>Nvidia’s warranty liabilities have ballooned from $1.29B in Q4 FY25 to $2.7B in Q3 FY26, with actual warranty spending surging 14× YoY.</li>
<li>The jump comes as Blackwell-generation racks grow hotter, denser and more complex (up to 2 million individual parts), driving higher expected incident rates.</li>
<li>Rising warranty reserves paired with rising finished-goods inventory suggest the same underlying tension that systems are getting harder to operate and harder to absorb downstream.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia’s warranty liabilities have ballooned from $1.29B in Q4 FY25 to $2.7B in Q3 FY26, with actual warranty spending surging 14× YoY.
The jump comes as Blackwell-generation racks grow hotter, denser and more complex (up to 2 million individual parts), driving higher expected incident rates.
Rising warranty reserves paired with rising finished-goods inventory suggest the same underlying tension that systems are getting harder to operate and harder to absorb downstream.


The Cost of Running Hot: Nvidia's Warranty Reserves Spike 168%

<ul>
<li>Nvidia’s multi-year cloud service commitments jumped from $12.6B to $26B in one quarter, but only $1B is due in cash before late FY26, raising questions about the immediacy of demand.</li>
<li>Nvidia is backstopping customer infrastructure via an $860M facility lease guarantee, with only $470M escrowed; effectively transferring counterparty credit risk onto Nvidia’s balance sheet.</li>
<li>Structurally, this resembles circular financing, where customers take on debt (facilitated by Nvidia) to secure future compute capacity, enabling Nvidia to book future revenue while cash conversion lags.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia’s multi-year cloud service commitments jumped from $12.6B to $26B in one quarter, but only $1B is due in cash before late FY26, raising questions about the immediacy of demand.
Nvidia is backstopping customer infrastructure via an $860M facility lease guarantee, with only $470M escrowed; effectively transferring counterparty credit risk onto Nvidia’s balance sheet.
Structurally, this resembles circular financing, where customers take on debt (facilitated by Nvidia) to secure future compute capacity, enabling Nvidia to book future revenue while cash conversion lags.


How Much of Nvidia’s Demand Is Nvidia-Enabled?

<ul>
<li>Nvidia is transitioning from a GPU vendor to a full-stack systems supplier for AI infrastructure, with the Data Centre segment driven more by integrated rack-scale deployments than standalone accelerators.</li>
<li>Management positions Nvidia as the reference architecture for a “$3–4 trillion annual AI infrastructure build”, but finished goods inventories are up 90%+ amid "sold-out cloud capacity."</li>
<li>The rapid shift toward rack-scale systems introduces new ecosystem tensions, as Nvidia’s move into full system design increasingly overlaps with the domain of OEM partners.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia is transitioning from a GPU vendor to a full-stack systems supplier for AI infrastructure, with the Data Centre segment driven more by integrated rack-scale deployments than standalone accelerators.
Management positions Nvidia as the reference architecture for a “$3–4 trillion annual AI infrastructure build”, but finished goods inventories are up 90%+ amid "sold-out cloud capacity."
The rapid shift toward rack-scale systems introduces new ecosystem tensions, as Nvidia’s move into full system design increasingly overlaps with the domain of OEM partners.


Sold Out Yet Stockpiled: Nvidia’s Q3 Highlights Potential Deployment Limits

<ul>
<li>DRAM has jumped 172 % YoY and is still climbing; another 30–50 % hike is baked into Q4, wiping out the 4–6 % operating margins most PC OEMs live on.</li>
<li>Intel’s soldered-down LPDDR5X, once hated for killing the lucrative RAM-up-sell, now locks the memory cost inside the processor.</li>
<li>With memory inflation off their books via a safe margin play, OEMs can hold notebook ASPs and guidance</li>
</ul>


DRAM has jumped 172 % YoY and is still climbing; another 30–50 % hike is baked into Q4, wiping out the 4–6 % operating margins most PC OEMs live on.
Intel’s soldered-down LPDDR5X, once hated for killing the lucrative RAM-up-sell, now locks the memory cost inside the processor.
With memory inflation off their books via a safe margin play, OEMs can hold notebook ASPs and guidance


How 172% DRAM Spikes Turn Intel’s ‘Worst’ Feature Into Its Best Asset

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Raghav's professional journey has seen contributions in media outlets and digital platforms, where he honed his ability to distil complex subjects into accessible narratives for a diverse audience. 

Within this domain, Raghav also began cultivating the skill to simplify intricate financial and geopolitical topics, making them both—impactful and relatable.

Raghav Vashisht
AI | Semiconductors | Commodities
• Mint Finance

Apple’s 18A Test Case Is the Inflection Intel Needed

Apple sourcing entry-level M-series processors from Intel's 18A node signals a shift in the industry landscape towards Intel's packaging-first...

Mint Finance

The Cost of Running Hot: Nvidia's Warranty Reserves Spike 168%

Nvidia's warranty liabilities have doubled in a year due to increasing complexity and heat in their Blackwell-generation racks, leading to higher...

Mint Finance

How Much of Nvidia’s Demand Is Nvidia-Enabled?

Nvidia's cloud service commitments surge to $26B, with only $1B due in cash before late FY26, raising concerns about demand and circular financing...

Mint Finance

Sold Out Yet Stockpiled: Nvidia’s Q3 Highlights Potential Deployment Limits

Nvidia shifts focus to AI infrastructure, aiming to become a full-stack systems supplier, but faces challenges with hyperscaler capex and rising...

Mint Finance

How 172% DRAM Spikes Turn Intel’s ‘Worst’ Feature Into Its Best Asset

DRAM prices have surged 172% YoY, impacting PC OEMs' operating margins. Intel's LPDDR5X now includes memory cost, allowing OEMs to maintain...

Mint Finance

Apple’s 18A Test Case Is the Inflection Intel Needed

​Apple sourcing entry-level M-series processors from Intel's 18A node signals a shift in the industry landscape towards Intel's packaging-first...

Mint Finance

The Cost of Running Hot: Nvidia's Warranty Reserves Spike 168%

​Nvidia's warranty liabilities have doubled in a year due to increasing complexity and heat in their Blackwell-generation racks, leading to higher...

Mint Finance

How Much of Nvidia’s Demand Is Nvidia-Enabled?

​Nvidia's cloud service commitments surge to $26B, with only $1B due in cash before late FY26, raising concerns about demand and circular financing...

Mint Finance

Sold Out Yet Stockpiled: Nvidia’s Q3 Highlights Potential Deployment Limits

​Nvidia shifts focus to AI infrastructure, aiming to become a full-stack systems supplier, but faces challenges with hyperscaler capex and rising...

Mint Finance

How 172% DRAM Spikes Turn Intel’s ‘Worst’ Feature Into Its Best Asset

​DRAM prices have surged 172% YoY, impacting PC OEMs' operating margins. Intel's LPDDR5X now includes memory cost, allowing OEMs to maintain...

Mint Finance

Apple sourcing entry-level M-series processors from Intel's 18A node signals a shift in the industry landscape towards Intel's packaging-first...

Nvidia's warranty liabilities have doubled in a year due to increasing complexity and heat in their Blackwell-generation racks, leading to higher...

Nvidia's cloud service commitments surge to $26B, with only $1B due in cash before late FY26, raising concerns about demand and circular financing...

Nvidia shifts focus to AI infrastructure, aiming to become a full-stack systems supplier, but faces challenges with hyperscaler capex and rising...

DRAM prices have surged 172% YoY, impacting PC OEMs' operating margins. Intel's LPDDR5X now includes memory cost, allowing OEMs to maintain...