AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BofA now sees ABF deficits of 7%/14%/19% in 2026–28, while Goldman is far more aggressive at 14%/34%/51% from 2H26 through 2028.</li>
<li>Ibiden, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and ATS are all seeing AI, server-CPU and networking demand tighten advanced-substrate capacity, with new expansion increasingly backed by customer commitments.</li>
<li>The shortage is harder to solve than headline capacity additions imply because larger, higher-layer packages consume more processing time and qualify at lower initial yields.</li>
</ul>


BofA now sees ABF deficits of 7%/14%/19% in 2026–28, while Goldman is far more aggressive at 14%/34%/51% from 2H26 through 2028.
Ibiden, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and ATS are all seeing AI, server-CPU and networking demand tighten advanced-substrate capacity, with new expansion increasingly backed by customer commitments.
The shortage is harder to solve than headline capacity additions imply because larger, higher-layer packages consume more processing time and qualify at lower initial yields.


Why More ABF Capacity May Still Not Be Enough

<ul>
<li>AMD’s unconditional commitments rose from $12.2bn at end-2025 to $30.3bn by June, all while management asks investors to focus on gross-profit dollars over gross-margin percentage.</li>
<li>Qualcomm is targeting $5bn of data-centre revenue in FY27 and $15bn-plus by FY29 from a base still measured in hundreds of millions, implying a steep physical-capacity ramp.</li>
<li>Qualcomm already has $769m of advance payments tied to multi-year chip-capacity commitments, while Amazon’s $60bn framework gives it demand visibility to reserve more supply ahead of revenue.</li>
</ul>


AMD’s unconditional commitments rose from $12.2bn at end-2025 to $30.3bn by June, all while management asks investors to focus on gross-profit dollars over gross-margin percentage.
Qualcomm is targeting $5bn of data-centre revenue in FY27 and $15bn-plus by FY29 from a base still measured in hundreds of millions, implying a steep physical-capacity ramp.
Qualcomm already has $769m of advance payments tied to multi-year chip-capacity commitments, while Amazon’s $60bn framework gives it demand visibility to reserve more supply ahead of revenue.


Fabless, Until Capacity Has to Be Financed

<ul>
<li>ChipAgents is moving agentic EDA into production, with Andes Tech reporting major cycle-time reductions and ChipAgents reaching 120+ semiconductor customers after roughly 6x ARR growth in H12026.</li>
<li>EDA-Maxxing depends on agents creating more paid design activity through additional projects and deeper exploration than they eliminate through fewer expensive tool runs.</li>
<li>Cadence and Synopsys have early monetisation advantages, but investors still need evidence that higher agent-driven tool usage translates into larger EDA budgets and incremental revenue.</li>
</ul>


ChipAgents is moving agentic EDA into production, with Andes Tech reporting major cycle-time reductions and ChipAgents reaching 120+ semiconductor customers after roughly 6x ARR growth in H12026.
EDA-Maxxing depends on agents creating more paid design activity through additional projects and deeper exploration than they eliminate through fewer expensive tool runs.
Cadence and Synopsys have early monetisation advantages, but investors still need evidence that higher agent-driven tool usage translates into larger EDA budgets and incremental revenue.


[EDA-Maxxing] AI Agents Are Designing Faster; Will EDA Spending Follow?

<ul>
<li>CME’s GPU futures could make compute-price risk hedgeable, but standardised contracts will still leave material basis risk across clusters, customers and service bundles.</li>
<li>Relative H100/B200 pricing may help separate broad oversupply from technological substitution, making the economic decay of older GPU capacity easier to observe.</li>
<li>The net read is bearish for GPU-capacity owners: hedging may improve financing, but more visible obsolescence and increasing capacity pressure rental economics.</li>
</ul>


CME’s GPU futures could make compute-price risk hedgeable, but standardised contracts will still leave material basis risk across clusters, customers and service bundles.
Relative H100/B200 pricing may help separate broad oversupply from technological substitution, making the economic decay of older GPU capacity easier to observe.
The net read is bearish for GPU-capacity owners: hedging may improve financing, but more visible obsolescence and increasing capacity pressure rental economics.


Compute Futures and the Market Price of GPU Obsolescence

Equity Bottom-Up

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

<ul>
<li>Intel says EMIB-T packaging could generate multiple billions of dollars per customer annually, with 40% gross and 30% operating margins from a relatively capital-light business.</li>
<li>SK hynix is reportedly considering Intel for HBM4E base dies, offering a potential first step into AI silicon without displacing TSMC from the entire accelerator.</li>
<li>Packaging can give Intel external revenue, process learning and customer relationships before 14A is fully proven, lowering the hurdle for its broader foundry ambitions.</li>
</ul>


Intel says EMIB-T packaging could generate multiple billions of dollars per customer annually, with 40% gross and 30% operating margins from a relatively capital-light business.
SK hynix is reportedly considering Intel for HBM4E base dies, offering a potential first step into AI silicon without displacing TSMC from the entire accelerator.
Packaging can give Intel external revenue, process learning and customer relationships before 14A is fully proven, lowering the hurdle for its broader foundry ambitions.


SK Hynix to Emerge as Intel Foundry’s HBM Wedge?

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Raghav's professional journey has seen contributions in media outlets and digital platforms, where he honed his ability to distil complex subjects into accessible narratives for a diverse audience. 

Within this domain, Raghav also began cultivating the skill to simplify intricate financial and geopolitical topics, making them both—impactful and relatable.

Raghav Vashisht
AI | Semiconductors | Commodities
• Mint Finance

Why More ABF Capacity May Still Not Be Enough

ABF capacity is expanding, yet shortages may worsen. We examine why CPUs, bigger packages and customer-backed capex are tightening supply, and...

Mint Finance

Fabless, Until Capacity Has to Be Financed

Fabless AI is getting less asset-light. We trace how AMD’s rising commitments, Nvidia’s scale and Qualcomm’s $15bn ambition are reshaping the...

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[EDA-Maxxing] AI Agents Are Designing Faster; Will EDA Spending Follow?

AI agents are making chip design faster, but will they make EDA more valuable? We examine whether agentic workflows expand paid demand for Cadence...

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Compute Futures and the Market Price of GPU Obsolescence

GPU futures could do more than just hedge compute prices: they may expose basis risk, price hardware obsolescence and reshape how AI infrastructure...

Mint Finance

SK Hynix to Emerge as Intel Foundry’s HBM Wedge?

SK hynix’s HBM4E talks put Intel Foundry’s packaging strategy in a new light. We examine how base dies, along with packaging, offer Intel a...

Mint Finance