Category

ECM

Daily Brief ECM: Woori Financial Placement – While the Overhang Remains and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Woori Financial Placement – While the Overhang Remains, the Deal Would Be Easily Digested
  • Pre-IPO TYK Medicines – Survival Risk Is Imminent, with Limited Highlights in the Pipeline


Woori Financial Placement – While the Overhang Remains, the Deal Would Be Easily Digested

By Clarence Chu

  • IMM PE, via Obis1, is looking to raise US$136m from selling a portion of its stake in Woori Financial Group (316140 KS).
  • While the deal doesn’t look particularly well-flagged, the PE has been invested for quite some time now. 
  • Despite the overhang, the deal is a small one to digest at just 1.7% of total shares outstanding, representing 5 days of the firm’s ADV.

Pre-IPO TYK Medicines – Survival Risk Is Imminent, with Limited Highlights in the Pipeline

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Among core/key products, TY-302 and TY-2136b have to face fierce competition, with R&D progress lagging behind competing products.TY-9591 for brain metastases from NSCLC could be a breakthrough point for TYK.
  • There would be a long time for the first product to generate revenue, but TYK is cash shortage.So, the survival risk is high. Such companies are less attractive to investors.
  • Valuation of TYK after six rounds of financing was RMB3.08 billion. However, considering the weak sentiment and concerns on pipeline, valuation of TYK after IPO could fall below this level.

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Daily Brief ECM: Renesas (6723) – YET ANOTHER Clean-Up Block Trade – This Time Mitsubishi Elec and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Renesas (6723) – YET ANOTHER Clean-Up Block Trade – This Time Mitsubishi Elec
  • Renesas Electronics Block – Smaller than Recent Deals but Still Likely Well Flagged
  • Tokyo Metro IPO Early Look – Could Raise Around US$2bn While Still Recovering from COVID
  • Precinct Properties NZ Placement – While the Deal Will Be a Clean-Up, Momentum Hasn’t Been Strong
  • Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering – Old Pipelines Are Difficult to Bring New Breakthroughs
  • Bharat Highways InvIT IPO – Hardly Attractive Given the Lackluster Sentiment


Renesas (6723) – YET ANOTHER Clean-Up Block Trade – This Time Mitsubishi Elec

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP) announced the sale of its position in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP). That’s 50,706,800 shares.  
  • This is the third large block in four months (Renesas in November for 223mm shares, NEC and Hitachi in January 2024 for 123mm shares).
  • This is smaller, and reasonably well-flagged. Index demand is longer-dated.

Renesas Electronics Block – Smaller than Recent Deals but Still Likely Well Flagged

By Ethan Aw

  • Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP) is looking to raise approximately US$800m through an accelerated secondary block deal, via selling 50.71m shares (2.6% of TSO) of Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) stock. 
  • The deal will be an easy one to digest at only three days of three month ADV.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Tokyo Metro IPO Early Look – Could Raise Around US$2bn While Still Recovering from COVID

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tokyo Metro (TKYMETRO JP)’s shareholders, the Japanese and Tokyo Metropolitan Governments, could look to raise up to US$2bn by selling half of their stake via an IPO.
  • Tokyo Metro is one of the two metro network operators in the Tokyo region. It operates nine subway lines.
  • In this note, we take an early look at the possible listing.

Precinct Properties NZ Placement – While the Deal Will Be a Clean-Up, Momentum Hasn’t Been Strong

By Clarence Chu

  • ADIA, via Haumi Co, is looking to raise NZ$262m (US$160m) from selling its entire stake in Precinct Properties New Zealand (PCT NZ).
  • While the deal will be a clean-up share sale, the deal is a large one for the firm to digest at 344 days of its three month ADV.
  • Momentum on the stock hasn’t been great, with the shares continuing to correct since the onset of the pandemic.

Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering – Old Pipelines Are Difficult to Bring New Breakthroughs

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Jiuyuan is not a typical innovative pharmaceutical enterprise with cutting-edge technology. The current seemingly good revenue/profit performance is actually based on some old products from over a decade ago.
  • The risk of VBP could lead to a significant decrease in profit margins at any time. The cyclical changes in heparin industry would put more pressure on Jiuyuan’s performance.
  • As Jiuyuan has not yet demonstrated superior clinical data in Jikeqin for overweight/obesity indication, together with fierce competition, we are cautious about the performance in GLP-1s pipeline at this stage.

Bharat Highways InvIT IPO – Hardly Attractive Given the Lackluster Sentiment

By Ethan Aw

  • Bharat Highways InVIT (BHINV IN) is looking to raise up to US$301m in its Indian IPO.
  • Bharat Highways InVIT is an infrastructure investment trust established to acquire, manage and invest in a portfolio of infrastructure assets in India.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance and provide our quick thoughts on valuation.

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Daily Brief ECM: Toei Animation (4816 JP) – This Offering Could Be Heavy; the NEXT Offering Is More Interesting and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Toei Animation (4816 JP) – This Offering Could Be Heavy; the NEXT Offering Is More Interesting
  • Pre-IPO Xunfei Healthcare Technology – Continuous Losses Will Be the Norm


Toei Animation (4816 JP) – This Offering Could Be Heavy; the NEXT Offering Is More Interesting

By Travis Lundy


Pre-IPO Xunfei Healthcare Technology – Continuous Losses Will Be the Norm

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • In healthcare AI industry, the commercialization process is complex and burdened with challenges. Related products mainly plays an auxiliary role in medical scenarios, rather than a core support or rigid-demand. 
  • The idea of creating corresponding solutions for C-end and B-end customers by FUNFEI is not inappropriate. However, both B-end and C-end businesses of FUNFEI have encountered varying degrees of problems.
  • We’re not optimistic about XUNFEI’s profitability. The sluggish stock price performance after Airdoc’s listing indicates that the market/investors have not fully recognized healthcare AI enterprises, leading to low valuation.

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Daily Brief ECM: Toei Animation (4816 JP): The Current Playbook and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Toei Animation (4816 JP): The Current Playbook
  • Trading Strategy of APR on the First Day of IPO
  • Pre-IPO 160 Health – The Lack of Moat Has Led to Development Falling Far Short of Expectations
  • Astera Labs IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Will Pricey IPO Frighten The Investors Off?
  • MIXUE/ChaPanda/Good Me Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison
  • QuantumPharm (Xtalpi) Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Requires Deep Pockets to Fund Its Cash Burn


Toei Animation (4816 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the US$550 million secondary placement announcement, Toei Animation (4816 JP)’s shares are down 7.0% from the undisturbed price of JPY18,560 per share (14 February).
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Toei Animation’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 27 February. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Trading Strategy of APR on the First Day of IPO

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss a trading strategy for APR (278470 KS) which starts trading on 27 February. APR is the most anticipated IPO in Korea so far in 2024.
  • Our base case (6 months – 1 year) target price of APR is 370,809 won, which is 48% higher than the IPO price. 
  • We recommend investors to take some profits off the table (30%-50%) if the share price shoots higher by 100% to 200%+ from the IPO price on the first day. 

Pre-IPO 160 Health – The Lack of Moat Has Led to Development Falling Far Short of Expectations

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • 160 Health collaborates with medical institutions and then get access to high-caliber medical professionals, which helps to attract patients/other business parties. So, its business model is B2B2C, similar to ClouDr.
  • However, ClouDr has much better performance than 160 Health, because ClouDr has established moat/barriers to more effectively monetize medical resources, while 160 Health is clearly lagging behind in this regard.
  • 160 Health’s revenue mainly comes from sales of pharmaceutical and healthcare products, whose gross margin is very low. As the competition intensifies, the C-end customer acquisition cost would also increase.  

Astera Labs IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Will Pricey IPO Frighten The Investors Off?

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Astera Labs, a cloud- and AI connectivity-focused semiconductor company, filed to go public. Top-tier underwriters Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan are leading the offering.
  • The fabless semiconductor unicorn plans to raise up to $500M. Selling stockholders intend to sell shares and the number of shares is yet to be announced.
  • I like the long-term, AI/cloud story. However, the IPO may look too pricey at more than $3B valuation despite the company’s revenue acceleration and improving profitability.

MIXUE/ChaPanda/Good Me Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison

By Sumeet Singh

  • Mixue Group  is looking to raise about US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO, while Sichuan Baicha (ChaPanda) and Guming Holdings (Good me) are said to be looking to raise US$300m each.
  • All three are primarily focussed on providing freshly-made drinks, including freshly-made fruit drinks, and tea, with some selling ice cream, coffee, baked goods and ready to drink beverages as well.
  • In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison, including the Hong Kong listed peer, Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK).

QuantumPharm (Xtalpi) Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Requires Deep Pockets to Fund Its Cash Burn

By Clarence Chu

  • QuantumPharm (QUP HK) (Xtalpi) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • QuantumPharm is a R&D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&D solutions.
  • In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.

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Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (26th Feb 2024) – Trial Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (26th Feb 2024) – Trial Holdings, Juniper, Xiaocaiyuan, Union Bank, Orica, Azure
  • Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • QuantumPharm (Xtalpi) Pre-IPO – The Positives – Grand Ambitions to Open New Monetisation Channels


ECM Weekly (26th Feb 2024) – Trial Holdings, Juniper, Xiaocaiyuan, Union Bank, Orica, Azure

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, we looked at Trial Holdings (5882 JP) refiling and Xiaocaiyuan International Holding .
  • For placements, it was an action packed week in India, again, with Australia joining in as well.

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (0200361D IN) is looking to raise >US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI Securities, Axis Capital, Citigroup and Ambit.
  • Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (ADP) is a pharmaceutical contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) offering a comprehensive range of pharmaceutical products and services in India and overseas. 
  • As a CDMO, it produces a range of dosage forms including tablets, capsules, liquid orals, vials, ampoules, blow-filled seals, topical preparations, eye drops, dry powder injections, and gummies, among others. 

QuantumPharm (Xtalpi) Pre-IPO – The Positives – Grand Ambitions to Open New Monetisation Channels

By Clarence Chu

  • QuantumPharm (QUP HK) (Xtalpi) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • QuantumPharm is a R&D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&D solutions.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

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Daily Brief ECM: Reddit IPO Preview and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Reddit IPO Preview


Reddit IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Reddit is getting ready for an IPO in the United States in the next several weeks. It is expected that this IPO will be completed in March. 
  • The company was previously valued at US$10 billion in a funding round in 2021. It is expected that the company could sell about 10% of its shares in this IPO.
  • Reddit may be seeking a valuation of at least US$5 billion in this IPO, which would be nearly half its valuation it received in 2021 in a private funding round. 

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Daily Brief ECM: Trial Holdings IPO: The Investment Case and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Trial Holdings IPO: The Investment Case
  • Xiaocaiyuan International Holding Pre-IPO – Strong Network Expansion and Same Store Sales Growth


Trial Holdings IPO: The Investment Case

By Arun George

  • Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$235 million at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550 per share. Pricing on 11 March.
  • Trial aims to act as a one-stop shopping store where consumers can buy whatever they want at a great price. Trial’s basic pricing strategy is Every Day Low Price.
  • The investment case rests on steady revenue growth, industry-leading same-store sales growth, solid margin profile and cash generation.

Xiaocaiyuan International Holding Pre-IPO – Strong Network Expansion and Same Store Sales Growth

By Ethan Aw

  • Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (XCY HK) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO.
  • Xiaocaiyuan is a Chinese home-style cuisine restaurant operator. It prices its menus’ items to achieve average spending per consumer between RMB50 and RMB70 for its dine-in customers at its restaurants. 
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

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Daily Brief ECM: Gree (3632 JP) – Overnight Offering in Asset-Rich Value Trap as KDDI Sells Out and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Gree (3632 JP) – Overnight Offering in Asset-Rich Value Trap as KDDI Sells Out
  • Azure Minerals Block – Removal of Overhang but Still a Risky Bet
  • Union Bank of India QIP – Well-Flagged and Just in Time for Index Inclusion
  • Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO | Channel Feedback
  • Trial Holdings Pre-IPO – Updated Peer Comparison and Valuation
  • Pre-IPO Numans Health Food Holdings – Due to Flawed Business Model, Future Growth Is Uncertain


Gree (3632 JP) – Overnight Offering in Asset-Rich Value Trap as KDDI Sells Out

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, KDDI Corp (9433 JP) and Gree Inc (3632 JP) announced that KDDI would offer its 8,000,000 shares in Gree in an international offering through Mizuho Intl.
  • The deal comes at a decently large discount and the stock is quite downtrodden. Especially when compared to its venture assets and cash, assuming invested amount is remotely viable.
  • The problem is that too much of revenue isn’t earning much, so this sits in a Value Trap category. Shareholder structure makes it difficult to do buybacks.

Azure Minerals Block – Removal of Overhang but Still a Risky Bet

By Ethan Aw

  • Mineral Resources (MIN AU) is looking to raise up to A$229m (US$150m) via a secondary block trade in Azure Minerals (AZS AU), which will be a clean-up. 
  • The deal is a large one to digest, at approximately 51.6 days of three month ADV and 13.8% of current mcap. 
  • In this note, we’ll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Union Bank of India QIP – Well-Flagged and Just in Time for Index Inclusion

By Sumeet Singh


Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO | Channel Feedback

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • We visited FirstCry Franchisee stores in Ajmer (Rajasthan), and Hosur (Tamil Nadu).
  • FirstCry has a high brand recall, limited competition, and healthy franchisee relations.
  • The ability to leverage FirstCry and Baby Oye is a good margin lever.

Trial Holdings Pre-IPO – Updated Peer Comparison and Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Trial Holdings (5882 JP) (TH) is now looking to raise around US$234m in its Japan IPO, after having canceled its prior listing attempt last year.
  • TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we provide our updated thoughts on valuation.

Pre-IPO Numans Health Food Holdings – Due to Flawed Business Model, Future Growth Is Uncertain

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Numans values light asset model, which helps reduce cost/expenditures, and thereby increase profits. However, such business model has flaws – no R&D/production, only terminal sales/brand operation, no control over upstream.
  • Revenue growth of core business Algal oil DHA products declined.Numans attempts to change its monotonous product line and enter milk powder industry, but the results weren’t ideal. Numans suffered losses. 
  • If Numans only plays the role of a “porter” of finished products from abroad and lacks core competitiveness/technological content, it will face multiple challenges to achieve sustained high performance growth.

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Daily Brief ECM: Juniper Hotels IPO – Looks Somewhat Fairly Valued and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Juniper Hotels IPO – Looks Somewhat Fairly Valued
  • Orica Placement – Keeping the Acquisition Momentum Going


Juniper Hotels IPO – Looks Somewhat Fairly Valued

By Sumeet Singh

  • Juniper Hotels is looking to raise up to US$217m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Juniper Hotels is the largest owner by no. of keys of Hyatt affiliated hotels in India as of 2Q23 (30th Jun 23), according to Horwath.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we provide our thoughts on valuations.

Orica Placement – Keeping the Acquisition Momentum Going

By Ethan Aw

  • Orica Ltd (ORI AU) is looking to raise up to A$400m (US$260m) in its primary placement. The proceeds will be used to partially fund the acquisition of Cyanco. 
  • The deal is a large one to digest, representing 21.3 days of three month ADV and 5.2% dilution. 
  • In this note, we’ll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

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Daily Brief ECM: Senko Group (9069 JP) Offering – Banks and Insurers Unwinding Cross-Holdings in Offering and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Senko Group (9069 JP) Offering – Banks and Insurers Unwinding Cross-Holdings in Offering
  • Heiwado (8276 JP) – Banks and Insurers Unwinding Cross-Holdings In Offering
  • Amman Mineral International Lockup Expiry – Large Lockup Expiry, Sitting on Sizeable Profits
  • Initial Thoughts on the Webtoon Entertainment IPO
  • Waaree Energies IPO- Forensic Analysis
  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Trial Holdings Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Margin Uptick, More Golf Courses


Senko Group (9069 JP) Offering – Banks and Insurers Unwinding Cross-Holdings in Offering

By Travis Lundy

  • SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (9069 JP) today announced large financial institutional cross-holders would sell shares in a Secondary Offering. There’s a buyback on the back end.
  • Cross-Holding unwinding is the subject of the moment. It will continue to be so. It will involve selldowns, and buybacks. Study the model of what companies must do what. 
  • In this case, Senko has a LOT of cross-holders and minimal excess cash. So investors buy more shares. But there is a buyback and index demand to come.

Heiwado (8276 JP) – Banks and Insurers Unwinding Cross-Holdings In Offering

By Travis Lundy

  • Heiwado Co Ltd (8276 JP) today announced a Secondary Offering sell-down by cross-holders, combined with a buyback post-offering to mitigate some of the effects of overhang.
  • Banks and insurers are selling, and that will leave the stock with a lot of cross-holders left, but investors should look at the model given he zeitgeist. 
  • Companies with lots of cross-holders have to be “fair” to them. Those without copious cash have to spread it around so this transaction model looks likely to be continued.

Amman Mineral International Lockup Expiry – Large Lockup Expiry, Sitting on Sizeable Profits

By Ethan Aw

  • Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) raised around US$714m in its Indonesia IPO, after pricing the deal at IDR1,695/share. Its eight-month lockup will expire on 21st Feb 2024.
  • Amman Mineral International (AMI) carries out exploration, development, mining, and processing. The company operates an open pit copper and gold mine known as the Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Initial Thoughts on the Webtoon Entertainment IPO

By Douglas Kim

  • Naver Corp (035420 KS) is trying to complete the IPO of its affiliate Webtoon Entertainment in the US stock market as early as June 2024. 
  • The expected value of Webtoon Entertainment (post IPO) is about US$3 billion to US$4 billion. Webtoon Entertainment is seeking to raise about US$500 million in this IPO. 
  • The IPO of Webtoon Entertainment in the US is likely to have a positive impact on Naver Corp (035420 KS).

Waaree Energies IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Waaree Energies Limited (0656504D IN) (WEL) has filed its DRHP. The company is the largest player in the Solar PV Modules manufacturing space in the country.  
  • The company has seen a sharp growth in sales in F23, backed by China plus one phenomemon. 
  • However, the financials do have a few talking points, such as high RPT, large inventory in transit, faster depreciating newer assets, etc.

Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (AJI HK) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are CITIC Securities, Haitong, and DFZQ.
  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (Auntea) is a freshly-made beverage producer.
  • As per CIC, the firm operates the fourth largest network of freshly-made tea shops in China as of Sept 23, with an extensive reach into the lower-tier markets

Trial Holdings Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Margin Uptick, More Golf Courses

By Sumeet Singh

  • Trial Holdings (5882 JP) (TH) is now looking to raise around US$234m in its Japan IPO, after having canceled its prior listing attempt last year.
  • TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
  • We have looked at the past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.

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