ECM Daily Briefs | Smartkarma

In today’s briefing:

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The Current Playbook
India Channel Insight | What Is the EV Scene in India?

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The Current Playbook

Since the US$2.0 billion secondary placement announcement, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)’s shares are down 5.6% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,520 per share (8 July).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Kokusai’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 22 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

India Channel Insight | What Is the EV Scene in India?

By Pranav Bhavsar

We spoke with multiple channels covering 3Ws, 2Ws, and 4Ws to understand the current dynamics of the Electric Vehicle (EV) scene in India.
Adoption of E-3 and E-4 Wheelers is hindered by high prices, range issues, inadequate charging infrastructure, and platform stability concerns.
E-2 Wheelers show resilience with stable sales led by aggressive pricing from Ola Electric (1700674D IN).

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Jul 19

Daily Brief ECM: Big Honda (7267) Offering – Flow Timing Matters and more

In today’s briefing:

Big Honda (7267) Offering – Flow Timing Matters
Invincible Investment Corp Placement – Another Accretive Acquisition, past Deals Have Done Well
Premier Energies Pre-IPO – Still Ramping up but Already Profitable

Big Honda (7267) Offering – Flow Timing Matters

The ¥500bn Offering of Honda shares is now priced (¥1,664.5/share) making it ¥497.46bn. Bookbuilding for retail – 80% of the book – is now. The price today closed at ¥1,665/share.
The Offering has follow-on “non-discretionary” demand which is non-negligible. It is worth understanding the amounts and timing.
The lockups and non-discretionary demand, along with Honda’s relative cheapness as a large cap OEM and likely upcoming offerings on competitors means it has support.

Invincible Investment Corp Placement – Another Accretive Acquisition, past Deals Have Done Well

Invincible Investment (8963 JP) is looking to raise around US$375m in its primary follow-on offering. The proceeds will be used to partially acquire 12 assets from its Sponsor’s affiliates.
The REIT has been very active on the acquisition front, and has highlighted its ongoing discussions with its Sponsor for acquisitions. Thus, the current deal should be well flagged.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Premier Energies Pre-IPO – Still Ramping up but Already Profitable

Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. It is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, and solar modules.
It also executes engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects and provides follow-up operation and maintenance (O&M) services.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

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Jul 18

Daily Brief ECM: Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Doesn’t Stand Out and more

In today’s briefing:

Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Doesn’t Stand Out
Sanil Electric IPO Book Building Results Analysis
Pre-IPO Distinct Healthcare Holdings- Hard to Deliver the Expected Returns Due to Growth Bottleneck

Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Doesn’t Stand Out

Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) is looking to raise around US$3bn via listing its India unit, Hyundai Motor India. HMI is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Hyundai Motor Group.
HMI primarily manufactures and sells four-wheeler passenger vehicles and parts. Currently its vehicle portfolio includes 13 passenger vehicle models across sedans, hatchbacks, SUVs and battery EVs.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

Sanil Electric IPO Book Building Results Analysis

Sanil Electric reported excellent IPO book building results. The IPO price has been determined at 35,000 won, which is 16.7% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
The demand ratio from 2,205 institutional investors was 414 to 1. Sanil Electric (062040 KS) IPO will start trading on 29 July 2024.
Our base case valuation of Sanil Electric is market cap of 1.8 trillion won or target price of 58,593 won (67% higher than the IPO price of 35,000 won).

Pre-IPO Distinct Healthcare Holdings- Hard to Deliver the Expected Returns Due to Growth Bottleneck

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Due to industry characteristics, it would be difficult for Distinct Healthcare to scale up. The Company is more of “a supplementary role” in the entire medical service system in China.
Profit margin is not satisfactory and cost side is also difficult to reduce. Even if Distinct Healthcare successfully turns losses into profits, it’s hard to generate good returns for investors.
Post-Money valuation was US$510 million after Series E financing. For a company that would encounter bottlenecks in both revenue and profit growth, it would be difficult to achieve high valuation.

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Jul 17

Daily Brief ECM: The Honda (7267) Offering – Much Easier Than It Looks and more

In today’s briefing:

The Honda (7267) Offering – Much Easier Than It Looks
Honda (7267 JP): The Current Playbook
Gigabyte GDR Offering – Not Wholly Convinced, but Discount at Wide End Is Inline with the Average
Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bear Case
OneStream IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Modest Upside and Top-Tier Backers
I-Scream Media IPO Valuation Analysis
Niva Bupa Health Insurance Pre-IPO Tearsheet
ZIP Placement – Worth a Small Punt, at Best
Pre-IPO Bloks Group – High Growth May Not Be Sustainable
Timee IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

The Honda (7267) Offering – Much Easier Than It Looks

At the beginning of this month, we got a scoop from Reuters about a US$3bn selldown of Honda Motor (7267 JP) by P&C insurers and others.
We knew this was coming at some point. The FSA had pushed the insurers to unwind cross-holdings, and it is otherwise of the zeitgeist.
It came out as heavily retail-oriented, and the supply/demand details are otherwise interesting. To boot, there is an EPS boost to come.

Honda (7267 JP): The Current Playbook

Since the US$3.3 billion secondary placement announcement, Honda Motor (7267 JP)’s shares are down 5% from the undisturbed price of JPY1,791 per share (4 July).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Honda’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 17 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Gigabyte GDR Offering – Not Wholly Convinced, but Discount at Wide End Is Inline with the Average

Gigabyte Technology (2376 TT) is looking to raise up to US$307m in its global depository receipts (GDRs) offering. The firm is also looking to raise another US$300m via convertible bonds.
Similar to previous GDR listings, the firm has undergone a long drawn out process prior to launching the deal, having to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bear Case

Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN), a subsidiary of Hyundai Motor (005385 KS), aims to raise up to US$3.0 billion at a valuation of US$17 billion.
In Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on market share losses in the key SUV sub-segment, bottom-quartile revenue growth, higher royalty rates and dividends to Hyundai ahead of the IPO.

OneStream IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Modest Upside and Top-Tier Backers

By Andrei Zakharov

OneStream, the financial software maker and enterprise-focused technology company, set terms for its IPO and plans to raise ~$441M at the midpoint of the range at $18.00 per share.
The company was backed by American global investment company KKR, D1 Capital Partners, Investment Group of Santa Barbara and Tiger Global Management.
The offering is attractively valued vs. peers given 30%+ growth rates at scale and cash flow generation. OneStream shares are expected to list on the Nasdaq next week.

I-Scream Media IPO Valuation Analysis

Our valuation analysis suggests a base case implied market cap of 567 billion won or implied price per share of 41,450 won.
This suggests a 3% upside to the high end of the IPO price range. We would not subscribe to this IPO due to lack of upside.
Our base case valuation is based on P/E of 18.8x using the company’s net profit of 30.2 billion won in 2023.

Niva Bupa Health Insurance Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Niva Bupa Health Insurance (1226871D IN) is looking to raise US$360m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are MS, Kotak, Axis, ICICI, HDFC, and Motilal Oswal.
Niva Bupa Health Insurance (Niva Bupa) is a health insurance firm. Its portfolio consists of health (including retail and group), personal accident, and travel insurance.
As per Redseer, the firm was one of India’s largest and fastest growing standalone health insurers (SAHI) based on overall health gross direct premium income (GDPI) in FY24.

ZIP Placement – Worth a Small Punt, at Best

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Zip (ZIP AU) plans to raise around US$145m in order to repay its outstanding debt.
The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past and has a mixed track record.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Pre-IPO Bloks Group – High Growth May Not Be Sustainable

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The key for high growth in 2023/24Q1 lies in its assembly character toys with renowned IPs,which may not be sustainable or even collapse if Bloks fails to renew license agreements.
The advantages of Bloks in development prospects, self-developed IPs, brand stickiness are not obvious. The latest valuation reached RMB7.2 billion, but the founder has already cashed out before IPO.
Hong Kong stock market has been “lukewarm” to toy companies. Except Pop Mart, valuation/share price of peers are quite weak.How to gain investor/market’s recognition for Bloks is a question mark.

Timee IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

Timee has set an indicative IPO price range of ¥1,350-1,450 per share and will raise US$280m (at the midpoint) where existing shareholders will sell down part of their ownership.
We expect Timee’s earnings to grow as the company is still in its early stages and with further growth in scale, we expect Timee’s margins to continue to expand further.
Our analysis shows that Timee Inc (215A JP) IPO is valued attractively as the company has better-than-peer margin profile which suggests that there is further upside to implied valuation multiples.

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Jul 16

Daily Brief ECM: Honda Motor Placement – Past Large Deals Analysis – Could Do with a Bit More Correction and more

In today’s briefing:

Honda Motor Placement – Past Large Deals Analysis – Could Do with a Bit More Correction
Remember DiDi Global? We Check in on China’s Dominant Rideshare Company and Review Recent Results
Sagility India Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Honda Motor Placement – Past Large Deals Analysis – Could Do with a Bit More Correction

A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of Honda Motor (7267 JP).
The possibility of such a selldown was flagged by Reuters prior to the deal launch.
In our earlier note, we spoke about the deal dynamics. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.

Remember DiDi Global? We Check in on China’s Dominant Rideshare Company and Review Recent Results

By Daniel Hellberg

First, we offer a recent history of Didi going back to its June 2021 IPO
Next, we review the company’s annual results from 2020-23 plus Q124
Finally, we try to answer the question, “Does Didi need to raise cash soon?”

Sagility India Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Sagility India (2058883D IN) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI Securities, IIFL Securities, Jefferies and JP Morgan.
Sagility India is a pure-play healthcare focused solutions and services provider to Payers (U.S. health insurance companies), and Providers (primarily hospitals, physicians, and diagnostic and medical devices companies).
It supports the core business operations of both Payer and Provider clients.

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Jul 15

Daily Brief ECM: ASICS Placement – Needs to Correct and more

In today’s briefing:

ASICS Placement – Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact
ECM Weekly (15th July 2024) – Kokusai, Wiwynn, Kelun-Biotech, Timee, Shift Up, Sanil, Avanse
T.S. Lines Pre-IPO – Looks like an Opportunistic Listing
TS Lines Pre-IPO: Should We Expect TS Lines to Match Wan Hai’s Strength in YTD 2024?
Pateo Connect Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

ASICS Placement – Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact

A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP).
For the two large banks, this will be a cleanup of their cross-shareholding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

ECM Weekly (15th July 2024) – Kokusai, Wiwynn, Kelun-Biotech, Timee, Shift Up, Sanil, Avanse

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, there were a number of listing in the past week, most of which performed as per our expectations.
On the placement front, Japan continued to dominate the ECM flows.

T.S. Lines Pre-IPO – Looks like an Opportunistic Listing

T.S. Lines (TSL HK) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
T.S. Lines (TSL) is a container shipping firm primarily operating in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

TS Lines Pre-IPO: Should We Expect TS Lines to Match Wan Hai’s Strength in YTD 2024?

By Daniel Hellberg

TS Lines’ comp Wan Hai has reported strong numbers so far in 2024
But TS Lines is unlikely to match Wan Hai’s impressive H124 gains
Next for TS Lines: H124 financials and valuation vs Wan Hai, RCL

Pateo Connect Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Pateo Connect Technology (PTC HK) seeks to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, Guotai Junan, CMBI, Huatai and Citic Securities.
Pateo Connect Technology (PCT) provides one-stop smart cockpit solutions and intelligent vehicle connectivity solutions. Its smart cockpit solutions enhance driving safety, convenience and connectivity, offering a more intelligent driving experience.
It offers OEM customers the flexibility to choose individual software and products or combine various components into a seamless and integrated smart cockpit solution.

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Jul 14

Daily Brief ECM: Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bull Case and more

In today’s briefing:

Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bull Case
Weekly Deals Digest (14 Jul) – Timee, ASICS, Honda, Kokusai, Sanil, Canvest, Henlius, HKTV, Rex
I-Scream Media IPO Preview

Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bull Case

Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN), a subsidiary of Hyundai Motor (005385 KS), aims to raise up to US$3.0 billion at a valuation of US$17 billion.
HMIL is India’s second largest passenger vehicle manufacturer, as measured by domestic passenger vehicle sales. It serves as Hyundai’s production and export hub for emerging markets.
The bull case rests on a strong market position, premiumisation-led growth, top-quartile operating and FCF margin profile.

Weekly Deals Digest (14 Jul) – Timee, ASICS, Honda, Kokusai, Sanil, Canvest, Henlius, HKTV, Rex

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: ASICS Corp (7936 JP), Honda Motor (7267 JP), Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) placements; Sanil Electric (062040 KS) and Timee Inc (215A JP) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK), Rex Minerals (RXM AU), Second Chance Properties (SCE SP).

I-Scream Media IPO Preview

I-Scream Media is getting ready to complete its IPO on KOSDAQ exchange in August. The IPO price range is from 32,000 won to 40,200 won.
I-Scream Media is one of the the leading digital education platform companies in Korea. Its I-Scream S platform is used by more than 93% of elementary school classrooms in Korea.
Post IPO, Sigong Tech will have a 23.7% stake in I-Scream Media. Sigong Tech’s stake in I-Scream media (at high end of IPO value) is 157% of its market cap.

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Jul 13

Daily Brief ECM: HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking and more

In today’s briefing:

HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking
ASICS (7936 JP): A US$1.4 Billion Secondary Offering

HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking

Today after the close, ASICS Corp (7936 JP) announced a very large secondary offering. It points out that as a global brand, it needs global-standard corporate governance.
As such, it says they’ve been discussing sales with crossholders. But we knew the cross-holders were going to sell. This offering is 85mm shares, ¥210bn at last. That’s big.
The stock has doubled year-to-date. Today they raised FY guidance BIGLY (+60% OP and NP). Now a huge offering. This seems like a “feed the ducks when they’re quacking” situation.

ASICS (7936 JP): A US$1.4 Billion Secondary Offering

ASICS Corp (7936 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 85.0 million shares (including overallotment). At the close, the offer, including overallotment, is worth JPY218 billion (US$1.4 billion).
Asics’ goal with the secondary offering is to eliminate cross-shareholdings. Asics also announced a material upgrade to full-year forecasts to offset the impact of the offering.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 23 and 26 July (likely 23 July).

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Jul 12

Daily Brief ECM: Avanse Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Fast Growth in an Expanding Industry and more

In today’s briefing:

Avanse Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Fast Growth in an Expanding Industry
Saint Bella Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Junjin Construction and Robot IPO Preview
Avanse Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Immigration Issues

Avanse Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Fast Growth in an Expanding Industry

Avanse Financial Services is looking to raise up to US$419m in its upcoming India IPO.
Avanse Financial Services (AFS) is an education focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) operating in India.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

Saint Bella Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Saint Bella (SAINT HK) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by UBS and Citic Securities.
Saint Bella (SB) is a comprehensive family care group in China, focusing on premium services and products that addresses demand from the lifestyle-minded younger generation.
It is the largest postpartum care and recovery group in terms of revenue from ultra-premium postpartum centers in 2023, according to F&S.

Junjin Construction and Robot IPO Preview

Junjin Construction & Robot is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSPI in August. The IPO price range is from 13,800 won to 15,700 won.
The IPO offering is from 42.5 billion won to 48.3 billion won. The book building for the institutional investors is from 30 July to 5 August.
The integration of robotics into construction processes is a cornerstone of Junjin’s operations. Its main product is the concrete pump vehicle which pumps cement or concrete at a construction site.

Avanse Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Immigration Issues

Avanse Financial Services is looking to raise up to US$419m in its upcoming India IPO.
Avanse Financial Services (AFS) is an education focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) operating in India.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Jul 11

Daily Brief ECM: Kokusai Elec (6525) ¥300bn+ Offering at ATH – Almost a Second IPO and more

In today’s briefing:

Kokusai Elec (6525) ¥300bn+ Offering at ATH – Almost a Second IPO
Wiwynn GDR Offering – US$1.45bn Dilutive Offering, but Momentum Has Been Very Strong
Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): A US$2.0 Billion Secondary Offering
Trading Strategy of Shift Up on the First Day of IPO
Kokusai Electric Placement – US$1.7bn Selldown for a Good Quality Name
Timee IPO: Strong Business Model with Improving Financials
Pre-IPO B&K Corporation – Valuation Performance Could Be Disappointing

Kokusai Elec (6525) ¥300bn+ Offering at ATH – Almost a Second IPO

Today post-close we got confirmation of yesterday’s Reuters scoop of a secondary selldown on Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) after the stock fell 7.2% in heavy volume.
KKR HKE LP and KSP Kokusai LLC (Koch) will together sell 52.5mm shares plus another 7.8mm+ in the greenshoe. Split is 50/50 domestic/international.
This is 60+mm shares against 51mm shares held by non-passive holders ex-Capital (who has been selling). It’s a lot of stock at a high price.

Wiwynn GDR Offering – US$1.45bn Dilutive Offering, but Momentum Has Been Very Strong

Wiwynn Corp (6669 TT) is looking to raise around US$850m in its global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): A US$2.0 Billion Secondary Offering

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 60.4 million shares (including overallotment). At the close, the offer, including overallotment, is worth JPY326 billion (US$2.0 billion).
The secondary offering facilitates KKR and KSP Kokusai Investments’ ability to crystallise substantial IPO gains—the shares are trading at 3.2x the IPO price of JPY1,840.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 22 and 24 July (likely 22 July).

Trading Strategy of Shift Up on the First Day of IPO

In this insight, we discuss a trading strategy for Shift Up which starts trading on 11 July. Shift Up is one of the most anticipated IPOs in Korea this year.
Our base case (6 months – 1 year) target price of Shift Up is 95,510 won, which is 59% higher than the IPO price.
We recommend investors to take some profits (about 50% of invested capital) if the share price shoots higher by 100% or more from the IPO price on the first day.

Kokusai Electric Placement – US$1.7bn Selldown for a Good Quality Name