
In today’s briefing:
- Opec: Twist Or Stick?
- Possibilities To Play “The Copper Trade”
- US Economy Remains in Decent Shape, but Finding Entry-Level Jobs Gets Tougher
- Global Commodities: Is volatility cheap in September?
- Greek Economy -Quarterly Macro Note – July 4, 2025
- Ep. 318: Brad Setser on Trump Tariffs, China’s Surging Surplus and Dollar Policy
- Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 July
- Real Asset Chartbook Week #16: A Great Historian on the US and Trade Policy Following the Civil War
- EM Fixed Income: Summer catch-up as spreads catch-down

Opec: Twist Or Stick?
- The further acceleration by ‘Opec+ eight’ in unwinding the second package of voluntary output cuts was a surprise, albeit one that left markets unmoved.
- The cartel now appears to be firmly on track to complete its unwinding in September, even though its stated justifications for increasing output remain highly questionable.
- Despite downside global growth risks, the Saudis in particular may press to start unwinding the first package, a move which may be announced as early as next week.
Possibilities To Play “The Copper Trade”
The copper trade still gets lots of attention. Reason for us to dig a little deeper and evaluate emerging opportunities.
Let’s also evaluate the “fundamental” reason market participants have why COMEX Copper is so much pricier than LME copper…
The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported refined copper into the US has triggered a widening of the COMEX-LME-Spread from 11% to 27%.
US Economy Remains in Decent Shape, but Finding Entry-Level Jobs Gets Tougher
- US economic growth expectations for Q2 are in positive territory. The tone of US banks’ financial results for Q2 suggests the economy is in decent shape, particularly the household sector.
- US banks have become large holders of Treasuries since the end of the COVID-19-induced recession and could become even larger holders if changes to the supplementary leverage ratio are instituted.
- Labour market data indicates higher frictional unemployment and tougher entry conditions for new graduates, potentially indicating the growing influence of artificial intelligence (AI) in hiring decisions.
Global Commodities: Is volatility cheap in September?
- Trump’s 50-day ultimatum to Russia expires on September 2nd, potentially leading to sanctions and increased weapons supplies to Ukraine
- EU’s new price cap on Russian crude takes effect on September 3rd, aiming to curtail Russia’s energy revenues and strengthen anti-circumvention measures
- Snapback provisions on Iran could be triggered in September, adding to global oil price volatility and uncertainty
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Greek Economy -Quarterly Macro Note – July 4, 2025
- In 2025, Greece continued to see an increase in its GDP, with a slight decrease in its growth rate from last year, at 2.11%, above the EU’s growth rate of approximately 1%.
- Projections from the IMF, OECD, and EU Commission suggest that this trend will continue in 2026.
- Inflation appears to be easing and progressively aligning with ECB’s 2% target, as May’s price data indicated a 2.48% increase.
Ep. 318: Brad Setser on Trump Tariffs, China’s Surging Surplus and Dollar Policy
- Brad Setzer is an expert in global trade, capital flows, and sovereign debt restructuring
- He has been involved in various government positions related to international economic analysis
- Setzer discusses the rapid rollout of tariffs under the Trump administration and their potential impact on the economy
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Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 July
- Asia’s base oils demand could get support as buyers focus on locking in supply to cover requirements during final weeks of Q3 2025.
- Dynamic would highlight disconnect between typical seasonal slowdown in lube demand in month of August and need to secure base oils supplies to meet pick-up in demand at end of third quarter.
- Expectations of sufficient supply could prompt buyers to maintain balanced inventories rather than to seek larger stocks.
Real Asset Chartbook Week #16: A Great Historian on the US and Trade Policy Following the Civil War
- The immediate post-Civil War period exemplifies a crucial pivot in U.S. trade policy. Trade policy that began as wartime fiscal expedients became permanent structural features. The Morrill tariff, enacted in 1861 primarily to finance the Union’s war effort, had notably raised average duties on dutiable imports to about 47 percent.
- By 1865, this elevated tariff regime was entrenched, sustained by several intertwined forces. First, the federal government emerged from the war burdened with a staggering debt of approximately $2.7 billion, some 30 percent of GDP at the time.
- This fiscal strain made cutting tariffs risky, as customs duties were vital for government revenue. Bondholders thus benefited from a generation of fiscal conservatism, while equity investors in protected domestic industries enjoyed durable shelter from foreign competition.
EM Fixed Income: Summer catch-up as spreads catch-down
- EM sovereign credit markets are a key focus
- Overall risk environment for EM is being closely monitored, with a more neutral stance on EMFX rates and corporates
- Tariffs and ongoing tariff uncertainty are major drivers in the coming weeks, with markets having ground better despite potential downside risks in growth
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