Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

Corn No. 2 Yellow at par and substitutions at differentials established by the exchange.

<ul>
<li>Corn prices are presently being pressured by ample supplies owing to the record US harvest.</li>
<li>Corn prices face an upside risk owing to elevated demand for ethanol and supply uncertainty from the South American harvest.</li>
<li>Premium for long-dated corn futures over near-term futures is on the rise. A calendar spread can be used to express this view. </li>
</ul>


Corn prices are presently being pressured by ample supplies owing to the record US harvest.
Corn prices face an upside risk owing to elevated demand for ethanol and supply uncertainty from the South American harvest.
Premium for long-dated corn futures over near-term futures is on the rise. A calendar spread can be used to express this view. 


Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy Costs

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>March CPI print came in above expectations at 3.5% YoY. CPI has come in above expectations for the past four months.</li>
<li>Gasoline, shelter, and transportation services were the major inflation drivers.</li>
<li>Dollar was the winner following the release as other currencies weakened. Euro declined the most while JPY weakened the least.</li>
</ul>


March CPI print came in above expectations at 3.5% YoY. CPI has come in above expectations for the past four months.
Gasoline, shelter, and transportation services were the major inflation drivers.
Dollar was the winner following the release as other currencies weakened. Euro declined the most while JPY weakened the least.


[US CPI Review] Energy, Housing, And Services Keep Inflation Hotter Than Expected

<ul>
<li>TSE market reforms are helping underperforming Japanese firms improve profitability. </li>
<li>Japanese equities remain undervalued relative to the US with lower P/E and PEG ratios. While Japanese firms still lag on CAPEX growth, dividend growth has been higher than the US.</li>
<li>Nikkei faces headwinds from the potential strengthening of the Yen as BoJ shifts towards less accommodative policy. For now, the impact is minimal. </li>
</ul>


TSE market reforms are helping underperforming Japanese firms improve profitability. 
Japanese equities remain undervalued relative to the US with lower P/E and PEG ratios. While Japanese firms still lag on CAPEX growth, dividend growth has been higher than the US.
Nikkei faces headwinds from the potential strengthening of the Yen as BoJ shifts towards less accommodative policy. For now, the impact is minimal. 


Despite Record Crushing Ascent, Japanese Stocks Remain Bullish

<ul>
<li>US CPI remains well above Fed’s 2% target range. Rising gasoline and shelter costs will push March CPI number upwards.</li>
<li>Consensus is for March CPI to print at 3.4% YoY in March from 3.2% in Feb. Core CPI is expected to clock 3.7% YoY. </li>
<li>Rising CPI will dent the likelihood of rate cut in the near term. Fed has reiterated its data dependence. Hot CPI data will vindicate Fed’s hawkish stance.</li>
</ul>


US CPI remains well above Fed’s 2% target range. Rising gasoline and shelter costs will push March CPI number upwards.
Consensus is for March CPI to print at 3.4% YoY in March from 3.2% in Feb. Core CPI is expected to clock 3.7% YoY. 
Rising CPI will dent the likelihood of rate cut in the near term. Fed has reiterated its data dependence. Hot CPI data will vindicate Fed’s hawkish stance.


[US CPI Preview] Rising Gasoline Prices & Shelter Costs to Result in Hot US Inflation

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

<ul>
<li>Copper supply facing headwinds with a shortage of copper ore which has led to spiraling copper refining margins.</li>
<li>Copper futures trading sharply higher than cash prices and term structure for copper futures has steepened. </li>
<li>Gold to copper ratio can be used to express a bullish view on copper prices with relatively lower risk compared to a straightforward long copper position. </li>
</ul>


Copper supply facing headwinds with a shortage of copper ore which has led to spiraling copper refining margins.
Copper futures trading sharply higher than cash prices and term structure for copper futures has steepened. 
Gold to copper ratio can be used to express a bullish view on copper prices with relatively lower risk compared to a straightforward long copper position. 


Research analyst adept in global commodities and US macroeconomics, specializing in directional, long/short, relative value, and options strategies.

Pranay Yadav
Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order
• Mint Finance

Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy Costs

Record US harvest leads to ample corn supplies, but upside price risk due to ethanol demand and South American harvest uncertainty.

Mint Finance

[US CPI Review] Energy, Housing, And Services Keep Inflation Hotter Than Expected

March CPI exceeded expectations at 3.5% YoY, driven by gasoline, shelter, and transportation services. Dollar strengthened against other...

Mint Finance

Despite Record Crushing Ascent, Japanese Stocks Remain Bullish

TSE market reforms boost profitability for Japanese firms, undervalued compared to US equities. Nikkei faces potential headwinds from stronger Yen...

Mint Finance

[US CPI Preview] Rising Gasoline Prices & Shelter Costs to Result in Hot US Inflation

Rising gasoline and shelter costs expected to push March CPI numbers higher, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in the near term and supporting...

Mint Finance

Will Copper Shine Brighter than Gold?

Copper supply shortage causing refining margins to rise, futures trading higher than cash prices. Gold to copper ratio can be used to express...

Mint Finance

Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy Costs

​Record US harvest leads to ample corn supplies, but upside price risk due to ethanol demand and South American harvest uncertainty.

Mint Finance

[US CPI Review] Energy, Housing, And Services Keep Inflation Hotter Than Expected

​March CPI exceeded expectations at 3.5% YoY, driven by gasoline, shelter, and transportation services. Dollar strengthened against other...

Mint Finance

Despite Record Crushing Ascent, Japanese Stocks Remain Bullish

​TSE market reforms boost profitability for Japanese firms, undervalued compared to US equities. Nikkei faces potential headwinds from stronger Yen...

Mint Finance

[US CPI Preview] Rising Gasoline Prices & Shelter Costs to Result in Hot US Inflation

Rising gasoline and shelter costs expected to push March CPI numbers higher, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in the near term and supporting...

Mint Finance

Will Copper Shine Brighter than Gold?

​Copper supply shortage causing refining margins to rise, futures trading higher than cash prices. Gold to copper ratio can be used to express...

Mint Finance

Record US harvest leads to ample corn supplies, but upside price risk due to ethanol demand and South American harvest uncertainty.

March CPI exceeded expectations at 3.5% YoY, driven by gasoline, shelter, and transportation services. Dollar strengthened against other...

TSE market reforms boost profitability for Japanese firms, undervalued compared to US equities. Nikkei faces potential headwinds from stronger Yen...

Copper supply shortage causing refining margins to rise, futures trading higher than cash prices. Gold to copper ratio can be used to express...