Capesize futures outperformed significantly, rising 127% versus 63% for Panamax from January to April, as Chinese iron ore restocking, higher fuel costs, and vessel constraints favored larger vessels.
Options markets remained decisively bullish, with Capesize and Panamax volume PCR of 0.34 and 0.27 respectively, while growing call activity in 2027 expiries signals expectations of a prolonged pricing impact.
The Middle-East conflict triggered a rise in freight risk premiums and volatility, but April’s moderation in IV and slowing OI growth suggest traders may expect stabilization rather than further escalation.
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