Australia

• Context: The New Hope Corp (NHC AU) vs. Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long New Hope Corp (NHC AU) and short Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) targets a significant return to the statistical mean reversion level.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• I tally 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Humm Group (HUM AU) and VIOL (335890 KS).
• Key updates/news took place onSantos (STO AU), PointsBet (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), SmartPay (SMP AU), Dickson Concepts (113 HK), and SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP).

• There is no shortage of opinions on whether FIRB will back/oppose the Santos Offer, as Australia seeks to balance attracting foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.
• The key question is how Australia benefits from Santos becoming a foreign-owned national oil/gas company? Can ADNOC accelerated/bolster existing projects/operations? Can ADNOC better negotiate native title rights for domestic supply? 
• And should Australia readily sell 100% in a critical infrastructure complex; yet if the roles were reversed, foreigners are capped at 49% ownership in UAE’s similar critical assets? 

• Kinterra has now firmed an off-market Offer for at A$0.057/share for copper-play New World Resources (NWC AU). There is no minimum acceptance condition.
• Kinterra’s Bidder’s Statement will be dispatched no later than the 10th July, at which time the Offer will open.  A Target statement is expected 15 days later.
• Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has matchng rights. Expect those rights to be used.  

• After market close, CAML acquired a total of 253.0 million New World Resources (NWC AU) shares via off-market trades, representing 7.08% of the outstanding shares, at A$0.062 per share.
• Central Asia Metals (CAML LN)’s scheme and takeover offer has increased to A$0.062, a 12.7% premium to CAML’s previous A$0.055 offer and an 8.8% premium to Kinterra’s A$0.057 offer.
• CAML and Kinterra’s stake prevents the other from exercising compulsory acquisition rights. Despite CAML’s offer representing a 121.4% premium to the undisturbed price, there remains headroom for a bidding war. 

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CU6 AU) initiated Phase 3 trial for its lead diagnostic candidate 64Cu-SARbisPSMA. The trial intends to gather data for filing of the product.
• The company’s cash position at the end of the March quarter was A$95M, with additional A$11M received in April for FY24 R&D tax incentive. This provides cash runway through 2H26.
• Clarity has built a robust supply of copper-64 with a wide network of product manufacturers in preparation for its two Phase 3 trials in prostate cancer and potential commercialization. 

• A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week

• Metcash’s FY25 result was solid, showing resilience in Food & Liquor.
• Signs are positive for a recovery in Hardware, but rate cuts are key

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• Extra Edition of the Broker Call Report

• Couple of days ago, I published my index change expectations for the ASX index family in the run up to the September 2025 index review (link).
• After market close yesterday, the index provider announced a market consultation on potential changes to the index methodology which could become effective during the September review if it gets approved.
• This is a short insight with our revised ranks for the potential ADDs and DELs assuming the market consultation gets approved.

• Xero Ltd (XRO AU)  plans to raise around US$1.2bn via an institutional placement to partly fund the US$2.5bn acquisition for Melio.
• The US market has been a growth dampener for Xero for a while. The acquisition is large but might not be a game changer.
• In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• New World Resources (NWC AU) is subject to a bidding war between Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) and Kinterra. CAML’s binding offer is A$0.055 while Kinterra’s non-binding offer is A$0.057. 
• At current terms, a binding Kinterra offer would be superior as the price increase more than offsets the reverse break fees and does not require regulatory approvals.
• Despite Kinterra’s offer representing a 103.6% premium to the undisturbed price, there remains headroom for a bidding war. 

• In December 2021, buy-now, pay-later outfit humm (HUM AU) announced approaches from third parties to acquire all/part of the company. This was discussed in BNPL Play Hummgroup Fields Proposals. 
• Six months later, a proposed sale of Humm Consumer Finance business to Latitude (LFS AU) was terminated, before the scheduled vote, due to opposition from founder/chairman Andrew Abercrombie. 
• Now the Abercrombie Group (TAG), the family office of Andrew Abercrombie, has tabled a A$0.58/share non-binding Offer, in cash, by way of a Scheme. Abercrombie hold 26.6%.

• Humm Group (HUM AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from The Abercrombie Group at A$0.58, a 34.9% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.43 (23 June).
• The Board has granted a four-week due diligence period. The offer is unattractive on several metrics.
• Unsurprisingly, retail is strongly opposed to the low-ball offer. The Board should negotiate for better terms.   

• As reported by Brian Freitas and Janaghan Jeyakumar, there are potential methodology changes for the S&P/ASX family of indices in sight, read their insights for more details.
• If approved, the changes could take effect with the September index review and could bring in signficant reshaping for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
• In our previous insight on June 9th we signaled how the ASX 200 was overbought. The index close last week down. This insight discusses our new forecast and outlook.

• Amaero Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace and other industrial sectors, developing a critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA.
• In an ASX release on June 23, the company announced that it has completed commissioning of the second advanced Electrode Induction Melting Inert Gas Atomiser (EIGA premium) on schedule at its Tennessee manufacturing facility.
• Amaero also reaffirmed its guidance that revenue was expected to significantly scale in FY26 and shared that through the contract sales it has secured in long-term agreements, it now has visibility on ~80% of its planned Q1 and Q2 FY26 sales.

• Greatland Resources (GGP AU) started trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) on 24 June after selling shares worth A$504m in a primary and secondary offering across Australia/UK.
• Greatland has a full market cap of A$4.9bn and a high free float since Greatland Gold Plc (GGP LN) was listed on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.
• Given the large market cap and high float, the stock could be added to multiple indices over the next few months.

• Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) and Region (RGN AU), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
• Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
• Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect one change for ASX 50, three changes for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200. Separately we see 9 ADDs and 7 DELs for ASX 300.
• The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th September 2025.

• Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH AU).
• Virgin Australia is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our thoughts on valuations in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• New World receives an amended deal from CAML for 5.3 cents a share, with a $10 million placement to Camel at the same price.
• Kinterra Capital, who holds a 12% stake in New World, is unhappy with the placement and requests an urgent order to prevent it.
• The placement is conditional on New World not receiving a superior proposal from a third party in the next 14 days, which incentivizes Kinterra to make a takeover bid within that timeframe.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• It was just a matter of time when Toronto-based PE outfit Kinterra Capital, with a (then) 11.99% stake, made a move on copper miner New World Resources (NWC AU).
• After declaring  it had increased its holding to 19.126%, Kinterra followed with an off-market NBIO at A$0.057/share. Presumably the Offer requires due diligence but the announcement is silent on this.
• Separately, Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) announced after market last Friday, it had bought 178.8mn shares (5% of shares out) at A$0.055/share; and subsequently bumped terms to A$0.055/share. 

• Beetaloo Energy Australia Limited (ASX:BTL), formerly Empire Energy Group, is a gas development company, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) gas exploration and development assets.
• BTL has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
• The company has completed its capital raise with the SPP finalised with an upscale to $7m bring the total raise to $35m*.

• BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has now tabled an all scrip off-market offer for PointsBet (PBH AU) – no minimum acceptance condition – which they consider superior to MIXI (2121 JP)‘s. 
• Really? 3.81 new betr shares is currently equivalent to A$1.143/share versus MIXI’s A$1.20/share all-cash Offer. Terms backed out just A$1.086/share at the start of trading last Friday.
• PointsBet quite rightly states the obvious – betr’s Offer is materially below MIXI’s.

• Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity in the Australian Banking industry between ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU) and National Australia Bank (NAB AU).
• Highlights: Going long ANZ and short NAB targets a 4.5% return to the statistical mean reversion level, with ANZ supported by cheaper valuations.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK) H share listing and CaoCao (2643 HK) and FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) IPOs.
• Event-Driven developments: Santos Ltd (STO AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Ascentech KK (3565 JP), Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP). 

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlight: Six pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist. Two 
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Iron ore continued to slip into negative territory and has now breached the lower end of the range of 95-130 USD/ton, which it has maintained over the last four years. 
• Data from CISA (China Iron and Steel Association) showed a decline in daily steel production YoY for May and June (tracking -4% YoY), after a lacklustre April (flat steel production). 
• The bright spot is that China continues to maintain strong net exports with May numbers at 10.1 million tons (121 million tons annualized), and mill margins are improving. 

• Flynn Gold Limited (ASX:FG1) is a junior gold explorer which holds a portfolio of tenements (20+3 in application) across Tasmania and Western Australia.
• The tenement package is prospective for several commodities, however, exploration efforts have largely focused on gold at the company’s flagship project, Golden Ridge, which is located in the north-east of Tasmania.
• Field work and ongoing drilling at the project over the past two years has resulted in FG1 developing critical mass at the project which is building up towards an inaugural JORC-compliant resource.

• Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity in the Australian Oil & Gas industry between Ampol (ALD AU) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU).
• Highlights: Going long Ampol and short Woodside targets an 8% return to the statistical mean reversion level.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity between Perseus Mining (PRU AU) and Capricorn Metals (CMM AU), two Australian gold miners.
• Highlights: Going long Perseus Mining and short Capricorn Metals targets a 9% return to the statistical mean reversion level, with Perseus offering cheaper valuations and higher growth.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• I tally 46 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Four new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Santos Ltd (STO AU), Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT AU), Tourism Holdings (THL NZ), and Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP).
• Key updates/news took place on: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), and Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK).

• BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has switched its PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) offer to an all-scrip takeover offer at 3.81 BBT shares per PBH share, with a post-offer buyback option at A$1.22. 
• Betr’s claim that its offer is superior is debatable. Mixi Inc (2121 JP)’s offer is 8.6% above Betr’s at last close prices, and minorities accepting the buyback will be prorated.  
• Betr’s offer is designed to torpedo Mixi’s scheme and takeover offer. Mixi will need to rethink its terms and likely drop its 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. 

• CSL Ltd (CSL AU) received FDA approval of Andemry, for prophylactic use to prevent attacks of hereditary angioedema (HAE) in adult and pediatric patients aged 12 years and older.
• CSL will launch Andemry in the U.S. immediately, with availability before the end of June. Thus far, Andemry has been approved in Australia, the UK, EU, Japan, Switzerland, and UAE. 
• With FDA approval, Andembry is now set to compete with Takeda’s blockbuster drug Takhzyro and BioCryst Pharmaceuticals’ oral HAE drug Orladeyo. Andembry has a convenience and efficacy edge over Takhzyro.

• The Region Group (RGN AU) vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• The relative value opportunity can be implemented as a long-short pair trade or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.  
• This Insight provides a target return, discusses trade setup, liquidity and risk management strategies.

• Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has bumped terms for New World Resources (NWC AU) to A$0.053/share, up from A$0.05/share initially. An off-market Offer is in parallel should the Scheme fail. 
• Separately, NWC announced a A$10mn placement – funded by CAML! – to advance its Antler Project, “conditional on either no competing proposal being received by …. 4 July 2025“. 
• Toronto-Based PE outfit Kinterra Capital, with a 11.99% stake, has now tapped the Takeovers Panel to declare the placement a frustrating tactic. 

• Provaris Energy Ltd (PV1.ASX) represents an unique investment opportunity as a leveraged play on the growing shift to alternative energy and carbon reduction, particularly in Europe, but applicable on a global basis.
• The keystone to production and growth is proprietary ‘storage tank’ IP, enabling bigger volumes of compressed hydrogen to transport at lower cost (‘more for less’).
• The company holds a material early-mover advantage with strategic partnerships and supply, offtake and shipping agreements expected to become unconditional over the next 12 months into 2026.

• • ADX has varied its acreage position to maximise exposure to a proven shallow gas play.
• A total of seven drill-ready shallow gas play prospects exist within the ADX-AT-I and ADX-AT-II licence areas have been matured for drilling.
• A further four gas prospects are being matured within its newly varied acreage areas.

• Horizon Minerals Limited (ASX:HRZ) is an emerging junior gold producer with 1.8moz of gold resources located around the Kalgoorlie and Coolgardie regions of Western Australia.
• HRZ released a mining update which provided insights into the ongoing mining operations at the Phillips Find Joint Venture (JV) and Boorara.
• Phillips Find is largely tracking to expectations with potential upside given the material outperformance in recoveries.

• To no one’s surprise, the Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) scheme vote comfortably passed. The scheme remains conditional on FIRB approval and no material adverse change (which Cosette alleges).  
• The Mayne/Cosette court case wades into uncharted territory as it brings many firsts, such as the first MAC-related dispute to be heard in Australian courts with a qualified MAC threshold.
• While Western case law burdens the buyer with establishing a MAC breach, it is unclear whether Mayne will get a favourable ruling, as Cosette could have a case. Tread carefully. 

• I have no clue. Given this is unchartered territory, in Australia, I don’t believe anyone has a perfect handle on the situation
• What do we know? The Second Court meeting has been pushed out to the 18th September from 20th June initially, to “enable the dispute with Cosette“. 
• This date may be further delayed as a court hearing will commence on the 9th September to hear the validity of Cosette’s termination notice.

• They provide tasty, fresh, natural, healthy and convenient food products to customers across over 40 countries worldwide.
• For the year ended December 31, 2024, they recorded a total revenue of US$2,195.0 million, increasing by 17.3% from US$1,870.7 million for the year ended December 31, 2023.
• The area in which this company operates in is one that is not traditionally attractive to IPO investors as the margins are low and the competition is high.

• Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) has launched next-generation prostate cancer imaging agent, Gozellix in the U.S. With two FDA-approved commercial products, current U.S. addressable market opportunity is $2.5B+.
• The FDA is expected to communicate its decision regarding the approval of Zircaix, kidney cancer imaging candidate, on August 27. Telix estimates initial U.S. market opportunity for Zircaix is $500M+.
• Illuccix continued its momentum through gaining market share and maintaining price stability in a competitive landscape. In 1Q25, Illuccix revenue increased 35% YoY and 9% QoQ to $151M.