Australia

• Airtasker Limited (ASX:ART) is an online marketplace for local services, connecting people and businesses who need work done with people who want to work.
• ART’s reported H1 FY25 results are messy, with a number of non-cash items including media capital spend distorting reported numbers.
• On an adjusted basis revenue growth was 11%, with Airtasker marketplace growth closer to 15%.

• The Trump administration’s announcement of a 60% tariff on Chinese steel imports affected the market sentiment, leading to a 3% decline in iron ore prices last week.
• China’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February, surpassing the expected 49.9, while the record Total Social Financing in January also contributed significantly to this positive outlook.
• Iron ore prices can remain rangebound (95-110 USD/ton), with the positive demand-side catalysts from China outweighing the long-term supply fears from Rio’s Simandou project. 

• Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
• RaaS Research Group interviewed CEO Michael Ivanchenko post the H1 FY25 results.

• Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
• The company has reported H1 FY25 adjusted EBITDA of $2.3m, up 17% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) and 10% ahead of our forecast.
• Reported EBITDA was $2.1m, up 9% on the pcp.

• Lynas, a six and a half billion dollar mining company, faced challenges in their half yearly results with higher unit costs and a significant decrease in cash position.
• The company’s cash reserves have diminished by over $200 million, raising concerns about the sustainability of their operations in the current rare earths price environment.
• Expansion projects in Mount Weld and Kalgoorlie are ongoing, with potential impacts on future financial performance and the need for additional financing options.

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• Mesoblast Ltd (MSB AU) has announced pricing for Ryoncil in the U.S. in tandem with the economic value of treatment with product availability planned for the current quarter.
• Wholesale acquisition cost of Ryoncil has been set at $194K per infusion. Ryoncil infusion is given twice per week for 4 weeks. This brings the full treatment cost to $1.55M.
• The pricing is strategically determined against the cost of treating a child who dies of SR-aGvHD of $2.5M and calculated total benefits of patient outcomes using Ryoncil of $3.2–4.1M.

• Auric Mining Limited (ASX:AWJ) is a junior gold company aiming to take advantage of higher gold prices to generate cash flow from two key projects.
• AWJ has been mining and tolling ore from the Jeffreys Find Project since late 2023 and has generated ~$105m in revenue from the production and sale of 27.6koz of gold.
• To date, AWJ has received ~$12.9m in net proceeds from the project with further distributions to be received in 2H25.

• Barton Gold Holdings Limited (ASX:BGD) is a junior gold company that is focused on progressing the development of the Tunkillia project after completing a scoping study in July 24.
• The study highlighted the potential for an economic mining operation which would produce 833koz of gold and 1,993koz of silver over ~six years.
• In addition to continuing development work, BGD continues to conduct exploration at Tunkillia and its Tarcoola project.

• Pureprofile Ltd (ASX:PPL) is a data analytics and consumer insights company underpinned by proprietary technology, servicing business decision makers in brands and media companies as well as market researchers.
• Pureprofile has reported audited H1 FY25 results substantially ahead of the previous corresponding period (pcp) and our forecasts.
• Revenue increased 23% to $29.7m, gross profit rose 25% to $16.3m and delivered a 55% margin, underlying EBITDA increased 39% to $3.3m and underlying NPAT jumped 139% to $1.8m, a record result for the company.

• Vertex Minerals Limited (ASX:VTX) is a junior gold company which is in the process of restarting mining operations at the Reward Gold Mine in NSW in order to take advantage of higher gold prices.
• With the restart underway, CY25 is set to be the year that the company can show regular production and cash-flow generation from the mine.
• Commissioning is underway with stockpiles to be processed first ahead of the ramp-up in underground mining which should provide the plant with fresh high-grade ore later in the year.

• Equinox and Calibre announced a deal that was met with mixed reactions, with shareholders on both sides expressing dissatisfaction.
• The deal, which includes Equinox acquiring Calibre in an all-script deal, has led to a 7% drop in Calibre’s share price.
• The deal will result in a combined group with nine producing mines and a mine under construction, with a pro forma ownership of 65% Equinox and 35% Calibre.

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• Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) raised around US$221m in its Australian IPO. Its IPO linked partial lockup expiry is due soon.
• GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
• In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

• There could be ad hoc change for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) prior to the announcement of the changes at the March rebalance.
• Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) could stop trading next week following the acquisition by Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU). The Royal Court of Jersey could sanction the scheme on 5 March.
• Mesoblast (MSB AU) is a high probability inclusion to the index, followed by DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU). The stock that misses out will be added at the regular rebalance. 

• After online trading player SelfWealth (SWF AU) entered into a SID with Bell Financial (BFG AU) on the 25th November, Singaporean-based wealth manager Svava gate-crashed the party earlier this month. 
• Svava tabled a non-binding A$0.28/share Offer, in cash, by way of a Scheme, versus Bell’s A$0.25/share. Svava also built an effective blocking stake – 18.83% of shares out.
• After Bell said it won’t make a counterproposal yesterday, SelfWealth has now entered into Scheme with Svava. Expect implementation in May. 

• RaaS has published an update on media group GTN Ltd following its H1 FY25 results in which it reported an 11% increase in adjusted EPS to $0.034.
• NPAT was 10% below our estimates, although normalising for additional Australian inventory spots and non-recurring costs, it was closer to our estimates.
• The H1 dividend was higher than we expected with 100% of NPATA paid out versus prior policy of 50% payout.

• RaaS Research Group has published an update on advanced materials manufacturing group Amaero International (ASX:3DA) following recent events including execution of the credit agreement for the US$22.8m loan from the Export-Import Bank of the United States, the $22m institutional share placement and release of the H1 FY25 results.The company recently announced a $22m institutional placement, priced at $0.30/share, concluding a series of six strategic capital raises since May 2022 to raise $98.5m.
• The company says the proceeds from the raise together with the now executed credit agreement for a US$22.8m (A$36.2m) loan from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM), will fund Amaero’s planned capital expenditure and operations through to anticipated EBITDA break-even in FY26.
• Separately, Amaero has also released its H1 FY25 accounts, delivering a better-than-forecast underlying EBITDA loss of $7.5m versus our forecast for $9.1m.

• RaaS has published an update on superannuation and payroll compliance solutions business Wrkr (ASX:WRK) following its H1 FY25 results in which it delivered a result in line with our expectations and an improvement on H1 FY24.
• Revenue growth was 26%, aided by higher float interest income and project work, while costs were well maintained, rising 13% on the back of higher staff costs (new hires in readiness for client onboarding).
• RaaS adjusted EBITDA was -$0.13m, in-line with forecasts and lower than the -$0.5m in H1 FY24.

• RaaS has published an update on 3D spatial data solutions group Pointerra (ASX:3DP) following the release of its H1 FY25 results in which the company returned to profitability, reporting underlying NPAT of $1.07m, a $4.76m turnaround on the previous corresponding period (pcp) and 45% ahead of our forecast for underlying NPAT of $0.74m.
• The result was struck on better-than-forecast revenue of $6.99m, the second-best half-year revenue result reported by the company in its history and an increase of 185% on the pcp.
• Operating cash flow for the half increased 194% to $1.8m, the company’s best-ever half-year operating cash-flow result.

• PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), an Australian/Canadian online wagering platform, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Mixi Inc (2121 JP).
• Mixi is offering A$1.06/share, a 27.7% premium to last close and an implied EV/EBITDA of 25.2x-32.1x for FY25E. Apart from PointsBet’s shareholder approval, the Offer requires FIRB signing off.
• Separately, Pointsbet’s key rival BlueBet Holdings (BBT AU) has tabled, what appears to be, a higher non-binding cash/scrip offer by way of Scheme, which PointsBet has allegedly ignored. 

• Duck projects and operations, specializing in large-scale builds
• Jeff Quartermain leads Perseus Mining, discussing Predictive stake and valuation
• Emphasis on creating value and diversification in mining investments

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• Iron ore futures rose USD 1.30/ton last week, closing at USD 107.25/ton, driven by China’s steel demand recovery and tighter supply from Australian cyclone disruptions.
• Technical indicators show mixed signals, with prices above the 100-day & 200-day DMAs, but MACD weakening and RSI forming a death cross, suggesting potential bearishness ahead.
• Financial Institutions and Managed Money increased net long positions, while Physicals participants expanded net shorts, reflecting diverging market expectations amid China’s policy-driven demand outlook.

• On the 25 November 2024, SG Fleet (SGF AU) (SGF), an Aussie provider of fleet leasing services, announced a A$3.50/share non-binding/indicative proposal from Sydney PE outfit Pacific Equity Partners (PEP).
• On the 4th December, both parties entered into a SID on the same terms. SGF’s largest shareholder, Super Group (SUPER SP) (53.58%), was supportive. 
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 8th April. Expected implementation on the 30th April. The IE (Grant Thornton) says fair & reasonable.

• Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) announced disappointing results, with revenues/profits down 16%/53% YoY, disappointing consensus slightly by 4-5%. 
• Capex accelerated to 3.5-3.8 bn USD annually, vs the initial 3.2-3.5 USD. The company reduced its decarbonization capex to 400-500 mn USD from the initial >700 mn USD. 
• Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)  dividend payout ratio has reverted to its base level of 65%, yielding a modest 5.3% based on H1FY25’s 50-cent distribution.

• RaaS has published an update report on diversified financials company Bell Financial Group (ASX:BFG) following the release of its FY24 audited results which demonstrated H2 CY24 acceleration in NPAT relative to H1 in the key recurring revenue businesses of Technology & Platforms (+18% vs. +2%) and Products & Services (+9% vs. +3%) as scale benefits continue.
• The Retail & Institutional business benefited from improved ECM activity and equity volumes, with H1 FY24 NPAT growth ~290% and H2 FY24 +6% off a strong base.
• Products & Services delivered 10% NPAT growth in CY24, with H2 growth accelerating to 16% following 3% growth in H1 as scale benefits kicked in.

• Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) reported 2024 revenue of A$783M, up 56% YoY, beating full year revised guidance of A$745–776M, driven by Illuccix. 2024 R&D expenditure was in-line with guidance.
• Telix provides 2025 revenue guidance of A$1.18–1.23B ($770–800M), up 51–57% YoY. The company expects 2025 R&D expenses to increase 20–25% YoY to A$234–243M.
• 2025 will be a pivotal year for Telix, with three new products launches planned for this year in the U.S. (Zircaix, Pixclara, and Gozellix) and the European/UK rollout of Illuccix.

• Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Cosette Pharma at A$7.40 per share, a 36.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
• The offer is conditional on shareholder and FIRB approval. The vote is low-risk as the two largest shareholders are supportive.  
• The offer is reasonable but not a knockout bid. At the last close and for an end-of-May payment, the gross/annualised spread was 2.8%/11.0%. 

• Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) announced a non-binding proposal from Costar Group (CSGP US) at A$4.20, a 34.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$3.12 (20 February).
• The bid follows CoStar’s acquisition of a 16.9% stake in Domain on 20 February. Nine Entertainment Co Holdings (NEC AU)‘s support is crucial for its success.  
• While attractive to precedent transaction multiples, the offer is light compared to peer multiples. Nine is evaluating the offer and will likely push for improved terms.

• The Sg Fleet (SGF AU) IE considers Pacific Equity Partners’ A$3.50 offer fair and reasonable. 
• The key conditions are shareholder (Super Group (SPG SJ) and SG Fleet) and regulatory (FIRB, OIO and FCA) approval. 
• The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and represents an all-time high. At the last close and for a 30 April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.5%/8.5%.  

• A double dose of StubWorld this week: REA Group Ltd (REA AU)‘s rolls over as CoStar Group (CSGP US) bets big on key rival Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU).
• Preceding my comments on REA and News Corp (NWSA US) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• Costar Group (CSGP US) bought a 16.9% stake in Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) yesterday at A$4.2/share in cash. That is a 34.6% premium to the last close.
• Then, Costar Group (CSGP US) made a non-binding indicative proposal to buy all the Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) shares it did not own at A$4.2/share.
• Nine Entertainment Co Holdings (NEC AU) owns just over 60% of Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) and should move higher on the offer.

• Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), Australia’s  number two player in the online real estate market, has announced a non-binding proposal, by way of a Scheme, from CoStar Group (CSGP US).
• CoStar is offering A$4.20/share, in cash. A A$0.02/share dividend declared on the 13th Feb will be added (but now ex). CoStar also acquired 16.9% of shares out, also at A$4.20/share.
• Domain is 60% owned by Nine Entertainment Co Holdings (NEC AU), and has been known to be scoping out a buyer. A firm offer will require FIRB to sign off.

• Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), a leader in dermatology and women’s health, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals.
• Cosette is offering A$7.40/share, a 37% premium to last close. Apart from Mayne’s shareholder approval, the Offer requires FIRB signing off. 
• The Offer also has the backing of Mayne’s two largest shareholder, Viburnum and Bruce Mathieson, collectively holding 14.1%. Implementation is expected late May, early June 2025. This is done.